Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jsteelbeam]

But in the next 24-36 months, bitcoin is somewhere between 10k-50k. It simply has to be. The scale at which the entities getting involved now operate scale wise, bitcoin will be forced there. And 17 year olds that mined this useless Internet money will have their minds blown.

To be fair, you're taking a bet that e.g. the US government won't ban the use of Bitcoin in the US. Look at India and China, for example. Bans can be quite effective. If the US government banned Bitcoin tomorrow - not beyond the realm of possibility given the US Treasury Secretary's recent remarks and the difficulties regulators and the IRS will have addressing Bitcoin - it simply will not have the chance to grow to the size you want it to be.

I'm long Bitcoin too, but it's a gamble nonetheless.

It is absolutely beyond most realms of possibilities at this point.

Do you live in the US? It doesn't matter I suppose given how many people here are paranoid about our government, but the truth is the US doesn't go around banning technologies. And there is no indication they will ban bitcoin. They aren't banning gay marriage. They aren't banning bitcoin. The NY regulators lead these type of financial decisions in the US. And the hearings made it clear they will support bitcoin and bitcoin innovation. The US takes pride in being world leaders and bitcoin is no different.

It's happening. It's no longer if. It's when.

I actually agree 1000% with your outlook.  The only thing that worries me is if it is actually Bitcoin itself with the marketshare projected 24-36 months out.  I've seen many posts of people who say that the the statements from the Congressional and NY State hearings are bullish because the chairmen have made comments that they see the value in Bitcoin.  But my fear is that they see the value in the blockchain technology, not Bitcoin literally.  

Just think about it: the US government (and all governments, for that matter) allow the Bitcoin community to spend it's blood, sweat and tears working out the bugs of a distributed ledger to record financial transactions and work to make the public somewhat comfortable with transferring money through such a system.  Once it becomes fairly polished, the government launches their own blockchain and USDollarCoin.  They empower existing banks to function as exchanges from fiat to USDollarCoin and ban any entity such as businesses from transacting in Bitcoin.  They can now issue their currency electronically without incurring the actual costs of printing paper money and supporting the infrastructure in distributing the physical cash.

It really is a regulator's wet dream, because right now, the government has no real visibility on what happens during cash or credit card sales on the transactional level, but once they have their own blockchain, they can trace the movement of every little penny within the system.

Let me head off the "But that defeats the decentralized benefit of Bitcoin" argument by offering this: 95% of the population can give two sh!ts about decentralization.  They will just do what the government tells them to do.

Am I the only one who sees this scenario as a real threat?  If so, I need to get rid of my tinfoil hat.

Get rid of your tin cool hat.

Haha...thanks 

[runam0k]

Not that much of a gamble. If the USG bans bitcoin, the FBI will have to destroy their private keys and that would be very bullish. It would still be traded here, just underground. An outright ban is very unlikely, even if regulation tightens to the point of scaring institutional investors and certain whales off. I think that is unlikely as well.

The US governement does not care about the FBI's bitcoins - it certainly would not take them into account when considering a ban on Bitcoin.

You say "not that much of a gamble", but how do you think the US government and TBTF banks will react when they inevitably come to the conclusion that Bitcoin is not something they can control? What happens when the IRS realises FATCA and other tax rules and collection policies are basically impotent when it comes to Bitcoin? Are you so sure they will sit back and do nothing?

A ban on Bitcoin in the US would be a tragedy, no doubt, but it would not necessarily surprise me. If the US acts, Europe will too. Russia, India and China are already half way there.

(For the record: still long Bitcoin, still holding some myself, still have BTC tied up in BTC denominated investments, etc)

[HairyMaclairy]

Lol that's not the elephant in the room.

[runam0k]

It is absolutely beyond most realms of possibilities at this point.

Do you live in the US? It doesn't matter I suppose given how many people here are paranoid about our government, but the truth is the US doesn't go around banning technologies. And there is no indication they will ban bitcoin. They aren't banning gay marriage. They aren't banning bitcoin. The NY regulators lead these type of financial decisions in the US. And the hearings made it clear they will support bitcoin and bitcoin innovation. The US takes pride in being world leaders and bitcoin is no different.

It's happening. It's no longer if. It's when.

Well, I appreciate your confidence.

(I don't live in the US, FYI, but I am a US citizen paying US taxes.)

Gay marriage does not threaten TBTF banks or the government's control of money and taxes (unless you're a homophobe, in which case you might think it does ). That's a pretty important difference.

This is the same government that promptly squashed e-gold, etc. Right now, IMHO, they're starting to realise they can't effectively control or tax Bitcoin. What happens then is anybody's guess/gamble.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mellowyellow]

But the US government banned online poker easily enough, millions played across the country and it was shut down overnight. Literally millions of dollars were lost by players and the businesses built around it. The industry still hasn't recovered and now 9 years since the original ban we have legal poker slowly appearing again in some states - but it's heavily regulated and they only started a couple of months ago.

If the US government thinks it isn't taxed enough or under US direct control...it could very well ban, or do what they did with poker and ban banks and financial institutions from going anywhere near it. Proving the point by arresting someone high profile, prob that guy from coinbase. He will get off with a fine, but it will scare the rest of the financial industry away.

[jsteelbeam]

But in the next 24-36 months, bitcoin is somewhere between 10k-50k. It simply has to be. The scale at which the entities getting involved now operate scale wise, bitcoin will be forced there. And 17 year olds that mined this useless Internet money will have their minds blown.

To be fair, you're taking a bet that e.g. the US government won't ban the use of Bitcoin in the US. Look at India and China, for example. Bans can be quite effective. If the US government banned Bitcoin tomorrow - not beyond the realm of possibility given the US Treasury Secretary's recent remarks and the difficulties regulators and the IRS will have addressing Bitcoin - it simply will not have the chance to grow to the size you want it to be.

I'm long Bitcoin too, but it's a gamble nonetheless.

It is absolutely beyond most realms of possibilities at this point.

Do you live in the US? It doesn't matter I suppose given how many people here are paranoid about our government, but the truth is the US doesn't go around banning technologies. And there is no indication they will ban bitcoin. They aren't banning gay marriage. They aren't banning bitcoin. The NY regulators lead these type of financial decisions in the US. And the hearings made it clear they will support bitcoin and bitcoin innovation. The US takes pride in being world leaders and bitcoin is no different.

It's happening. It's no longer if. It's when.

I actually agree 1000% with your outlook.  The only thing that worries me is if it is actually Bitcoin itself with the marketshare projected 24-36 months out.  I've seen many posts of people who say that the the statements from the Congressional and NY State hearings are bullish because the chairmen have made comments that they see the value in Bitcoin.  But my fear is that they see the value in the blockchain technology, not Bitcoin literally.  

Just think about it: the US government (and all governments, for that matter) allow the Bitcoin community to spend it's blood, sweat and tears working out the bugs of a distributed ledger to record financial transactions and work to make the public somewhat comfortable with transferring money through such a system.  Once it becomes fairly polished, the government launches their own blockchain and USDollarCoin.  They empower existing banks to function as exchanges from fiat to USDollarCoin and ban any entity such as businesses from transacting in Bitcoin.  They can now issue their currency electronically without incurring the actual costs of printing paper money and supporting the infrastructure in distributing the physical cash.

It really is a regulator's wet dream, because right now, the government has no real visibility on what happens during cash or credit card sales on the transactional level, but once they have their own blockchain, they can trace the movement of every little penny within the system.

Let me head off the "But that defeats the decentralized benefit of Bitcoin" argument by offering this: 95% of the population can give two sh!ts about decentralization.  They will just do what the government tells them to do.

Am I the only one who sees this scenario as a real threat?  If so, I need to get rid of my tinfoil hat.

Get rid of your tin cool hat.

...and Bitcoin holders in the rest of the world would carry on using Bitcoins, for the same reasons they got Bitcoins in the first place..

Yes, except that in my scenario, all the other major global governments would do the exact same thing.

[TERA]

But the US government banned online poker easily enough, millions played across the country and it was shut down overnight. Literally millions of dollars were lost by players and the businesses built around it. The industry still hasn't recovered and now 9 years since the original ban we have legal poker slowly appearing again in some states - but it's heavily regulated and they only started a couple of months ago.

They banned the flow of money to poker sites and this ban was strongly undermined (leading to the big heist which resulted in Full Tilt's demise a few years back).

Seriously, they will only make Bitcoin stronger by fighting it. It's a hydra.

It can become stronger but won't receive the to-da-moon style adoption by large merchants and wall street which we keep speculating will add a few more digits to the price.

[mellowyellow]

But the US government banned online poker easily enough, millions played across the country and it was shut down overnight. Literally millions of dollars were lost by players and the businesses built around it. The industry still hasn't recovered and now 9 years since the original ban we have legal poker slowly appearing again in some states - but it's heavily regulated and they only started a couple of months ago.

They banned the flow of money to poker sites and this ban was strongly undermined (leading to the big heist which resulted in Full Tilt's demise a few years back).

Seriously, they will only make Bitcoin stronger by fighting it. It's a hydra.

Well it didn't make poker stronger did it? I do know a bit about this, I ran a poker site pre UIGEA, the industry collapsed, players lost interest, only the rest of the world kept it limping along, it may never recover.

Don't get me wrong I'm a long term bull, but if you don't look at the possibility of things like this happening and protect yourself, then you're not looking after your money well.

Every single person here is enthusiastic about btc, even the perma bears - otherwise they would not be on this forum. Surely within ourselves we SHOULD discuss the possibility of something like this happening.

[billyjoeallen]

It is absolutely beyond most realms of possibilities at this point.

Do you live in the US? It doesn't matter I suppose given how many people here are paranoid about our government, but the truth is the US doesn't go around banning technologies. And there is no indication they will ban bitcoin. They aren't banning gay marriage. They aren't banning bitcoin. The NY regulators lead these type of financial decisions in the US. And the hearings made it clear they will support bitcoin and bitcoin innovation. The US takes pride in being world leaders and bitcoin is no different.

It's happening. It's no longer if. It's when.

Well, I appreciate your confidence.

(I don't live in the US, FYI, but I am a US citizen paying US taxes.)

Gay marriage does not threaten TBTF banks or the government's control of money and taxes (unless you're a homophobe, in which case you might think it does ). That's a pretty important difference.

This is the same government that promptly squashed e-gold, etc. Right now, IMHO, they're starting to realise they can't effectively control or tax Bitcoin. What happens then is anybody's guess/gamble.

I think a healthy dose of mistrust towards the government and the banks is a good thing, but you're overdoing it here. We're not important enough to hate yet. By the time we are, it'll be too late for them.

[bangersdad]

But the US government banned online poker easily enough, millions played across the country and it was shut down overnight. Literally millions of dollars were lost by players and the businesses built around it. The industry still hasn't recovered and now 9 years since the original ban we have legal poker slowly appearing again in some states - but it's heavily regulated and they only started a couple of months ago.

They banned the flow of money to poker sites and this ban was strongly undermined (leading to the big heist which resulted in Full Tilt's demise a few years back).

Seriously, they will only make Bitcoin stronger by fighting it. It's a hydra.

Well it didn't make poker stronger did it? I do know a bit about this, I ran a poker site pre UIGEA, the industry collapsed, players lost interest, only the rest of the world kept it limping along, it may never recover.

Don't get me wrong I'm a long term bull, but if you don't look at the possibility of things like this happening and protect yourself, then you're not looking after your money well.

Every single person here is enthusiastic about btc, even the perma bears - otherwise they would not be on this forum. Surely within ourselves we SHOULD discuss the possibility of something like this happening.

There was not a real need for online poker though...society can function without it......but can it function without btc?

[mellowyellow]

But the US government banned online poker easily enough, millions played across the country and it was shut down overnight. Literally millions of dollars were lost by players and the businesses built around it. The industry still hasn't recovered and now 9 years since the original ban we have legal poker slowly appearing again in some states - but it's heavily regulated and they only started a couple of months ago.

They banned the flow of money to poker sites and this ban was strongly undermined (leading to the big heist which resulted in Full Tilt's demise a few years back).

Seriously, they will only make Bitcoin stronger by fighting it. It's a hydra.

Well it didn't make poker stronger did it? I do know a bit about this, I ran a poker site pre UIGEA, the industry collapsed, players lost interest, only the rest of the world kept it limping along, it may never recover.

Don't get me wrong I'm a long term bull, but if you don't look at the possibility of things like this happening and protect yourself, then you're not looking after your money well.

Every single person here is enthusiastic about btc, even the perma bears - otherwise they would not be on this forum. Surely within ourselves we SHOULD discuss the possibility of something like this happening.

There was not a real need for online poker though...society can function without it......but can it function without btc?

Lol yes. btc isn't the be all and end all of crypto currency. As discussed in the hearings yesterday this could just be the forerunner for better more secure systems. Btc has a lot of problems that could be improved on.

Sometimes I think we're all investing in bb boards thinking that's where the money is in the internet in the 90's just because that's what everybody used (older people will understand this). Sure bb boards and the early browsers helped the whole concept of the internet take off, people made tons of money at the time, but ultimately they were replaced with far superior technology once the real money moved in.

I'm not saying btc is doomed, but take a step back from your enthusiasm every now and again and smell the coffee. This could just be a short lived opportunity to make some money.

[flynn]

Poker sites were just a way for a few people to suck-in other people's money while wasting their time playing a silly game.

Bitcoin just created a few tens of b$ out of nothing and may give the planet a few % of needed growth, all this for free, or nearly.
Business and jobs will be created, and have been already.

So what would you do if you were to advise to keep or reject this as a whole ?

[mellowyellow]

Poker sites were just a way for a few people to suck-in other people's money while wasting their time playing a silly game.

Bitcoin just created a few tens of b$ out of nothing and may give the planet a few % of needed growth, all this for free, or nearly.
Business and jobs will be created, and have been already.

So what would you do if you were to advise to keep or reject this as a whole ?

I would advise to keep it, build on it. I have invested remember. I just 'sometimes' doubt if we will get mass acceptance of this particular coin (btc).

Wish I hadn't started this now, I'm a bull...but sometimes I like reality to kick in. I've missed too many 'obvious' signs over my lifetime, I was heavily involved in the dotcom bubble (hindsight is a wonderful thing). I'd just like to get it right this time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[magicmexican]

Poker sites were just a way for a few people to suck-in other people's money while wasting their time playing a silly game.

Bitcoin just created a few tens of b$ out of nothing and may give the planet a few % of needed growth, all this for free, or nearly.
Business and jobs will be created, and have been already.

So what would you do if you were to advise to keep or reject this as a whole ?

Ye except poker is a job for a decent chunk of people playing on these sites. I myself have friends who were forced to move outside of US just to continue playing.

[flynn]

Ye except poker is a job for a decent chunk of people playing on these sites. I myself have friends who were forced to move outside of US just to continue playing.

Yeah, I didn't want to be rude to these guys; entertainment and online games are jobs like any others.

I just wanted to emphasise the fact that there is a big creation of wealth with bitcoin that other activities don't provide.

[mellowyellow]

Ye except poker is a job for a decent chunk of people playing on these sites. I myself have friends who were forced to move outside of US just to continue playing.

I just wanted to emphasise the fact that there is a big creation of wealth with bitcoin that other activities don't provide.

How? It's made some individuals wealthy, but only because other individuals have put money in, and those individuals are reliant on other new individuals putting money in to make their own returns. Bitcoin does not create money, it just moves it around. Only governments create money.

[bambou]

Ye except poker is a job for a decent chunk of people playing on these sites. I myself have friends who were forced to move outside of US just to continue playing.

Yeah, I didn't want to be rude to these guys; entertainment and online games are jobs like any others.

I just wanted to emphasise the fact that there is a big creation of wealth with bitcoin that other activities don't provide.

plus i wouldnt want to mess with all the silicon valley VCs which are investing more and more money into Bitcoin landscape. Poker sites are just irrelevant. Its a game, not a technology.

[mestar]

But in the next 24-36 months, bitcoin is somewhere between 10k-50k. It simply has to be. The scale at which the entities getting involved now operate scale wise, bitcoin will be forced there. And 17 year olds that mined this useless Internet money will have their minds blown.

Ah, the forced $50,000 per Bitcoin in 2017.  Let's see what this means. 

If miners decide to sell all their mined Bitcoins, (or 50%), this is how much daily fresh money is needed on the exchanges for the price to be stable:

2014-2016 :   $180 million ($90 million daily if 50% sold)
2017-2020:   $90 million ($45 million daily)                          <--- look here
2021-2024:   $45 million ($22 million daily)
etc.

Don't forget that they have to sell to cover their electricity costs. So, if Bitcoin is $50,000 in 2017, good luck in finding that daily fifty million dollars.