Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bambou]

the question is:

Will the Chinese dump all their money into the market before its illegal or will they pump out all their money that is left.

Question of if its going to a big rise or a big fall.

A more pertinent question is:  Do you, or even I, who consider myself well informed on PRC internal matters, even have the ability to understand the meaning of "legal" in China, let alone the legal status of BTCChina's current arrangement with Shanghai Pudong.

imho its just a matter of mass interpretation. no need to get the right information, the market should move before it even gets it. after all, we, humans, are mostly led by our emotions.

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[aminorex]

The latter has the potential of actually creating new wealth by doing a useful service to society, namely allowing cheap international payments without direct bank intervention.  It is debatable how much that service will be worth (in concrete terms; say, how much more bread and wine the world will produce thanks to it).  It coud be a lot --- but certainly a lot less than what Bitcoin salesmen claim.

Not merely International payments.  Card swipe fees are a 3% tax on the GDP.  Financialization has created some small efficiencies at a vast social and economic cost, which can be slowly removed through the deleveraging effects of counterparty-free cryptographic economy.

Investing and speculating in bitcoins does not create any wealth.  

That observation may be a bit facile.  Liquidity is a huge boon, for example.  Comparing bitcoin to equities is more likely to lead you astray than to guide you to a useful conclusion.

Bitcoin trade is pure speculation, since none of the money that people spent buying bitcoins, from day zero, was loaned to the network to build its infrastructure or to pay his workers.  

Where do you think the profits of the miners come from?  From buyers of bitcoin.  Speculators are among the major buyers of bitcoin.  Indeed, until very recently, only speculators and drug users were meaningful purchasers.  They paid for the network.

I am sure that you are making an intellectually honest effort to assess the facts and import of Bitcoin technology, but I get the impression that your political preconceptions are undermining those efforts in some ways, to some degree.

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

true reason for the drop - http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bitcoin-drops-3-as-emerging-market-concerns-ease-cm321692

Interesting. I can see why distress in emerging markets would be good for Bitcoin, and I predict a whole lot more distress to come. Not happy about that even if it will be good for my bottom line. Lotta people gonna get hurt. They'll get less hurt if they buy some bitcoin.

All headlines about financial events are always composed in the following manner:

<something just happened> [as|after|despite] <something unrelated that happened at the same time>

The second part after the "as" is chosen randomly. Its sole purpose is to make it appear as if they were able to understand or explain what is going on. You will not find a single news source that would ever publish an article about a currency or commodity or stock rising or falling without the obligatory "as"-clause attached to it in the headline, no matter how absurd it may seem:

"Bitcoin drops as emerging market concerns ease"
"Bitcoin drops as Fed is cutting stimulus further"
"Bitcoin drops after disappointing Apple report"
"Bitcoin drops despite disappointing Apple report"
"Bitcoin drops as Google Doodle celebrates Year of the Horse"
"Bitcoin drops despite 6-time All-Star Lance Berkman announcing retirement"
"Bitcoin drops as Justin Bieber is charged with Toronto limo driver assault"

"Bitcoin rallies as emerging market concerns ease"
"Bitcoin rallies despite Fed cutting stimulus further"
"Bitcoin rallies after disappointing Apple report"
"Bitcoin rallies despite disappointing Apple report"
"Bitcoin rallies as Google Doodle celebrates Year of the Horse"
"Bitcoin rallies as 6-time All-Star Lance Berkman announces retirement"
"Bitcoin rallies as Justin Bieber is charged with Toronto limo driver assault"

This is correct. We need a name for this syndrome.

Can we call it the "Irregardless Clause".  Mostly because I love hearing people use fake words that have no meaning...

EDIT: I.E. "Bitcoin rallies irregardless of disappointing Apple report"

[aminorex]

This is correct. We need a name for this syndrome.

Coincidental template journalism.  Bloomberg syndrome.

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

This is correct. We need a name for this syndrome.

Coincidental template journalism.  Bloomberg syndrome.

Using the Irregardless Clause with Bloomberg Syndrome, we can correlate that nothing is confirmed...

[aminorex]

Government is a monopoly on force. They are little better than bandits.

Banditry under color of law is far worse than quotidian brigandage.  It's a profoundly subversive attack on the very existence of social order.

[aminorex]

The U.S. Government stole most of the private gold held by Americans in 1933. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 The precedent was set and they could easily do it again. Good luck trying to steal bitcoins. Private keys? What private keys? I lost/destroyed/exposed/ate them. Good luck hiding gold in a brain wallet.

All of my gold was lost in a boating accident.

[empowering]

The U.S. Government stole most of the private gold held by Americans in 1933. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 The precedent was set and they could easily do it again. Good luck trying to steal bitcoins. Private keys? What private keys? I lost/destroyed/exposed/ate them. Good luck hiding gold in a brain wallet.

All of my gold was lost in a boating accident.

Ok I am taking the bait....  what happened?

[empowering]

This is correct. We need a name for this syndrome.

Coincidental template journalism.  Bloomberg syndrome.

Using the Irregardless Clause with Bloomberg Syndrome, we can correlate that nothing is confirmed...

Talking of which where is Proudhon? I miss him   

[BRADLEYPLOOF]

This is correct. We need a name for this syndrome.

Coincidental template journalism.  Bloomberg syndrome.

Using the Irregardless Clause with Bloomberg Syndrome, we can correlate that nothing is confirmed...

Wait, so...if I have a friend who makes completely stupid connects to base facts off of, for example, "Blue is a color, that's why monkeys like bananas", does he have Bloomberg Syndrome?

[billyjoeallen]

This is correct. We need a name for this syndrome.

Coincidental template journalism.  Bloomberg syndrome.

Arbitrary correlation syndrome

[empowering]

This is correct. We need a name for this syndrome.

Coincidental template journalism.  Bloomberg syndrome.

Using the Irregardless Clause with Bloomberg Syndrome, we can correlate that nothing is confirmed...

Wait, so...if I have a friend who makes completely stupid connects to base facts off of, for example, "Blue is a color, that's why monkeys like bananas", does he have Bloomberg Syndrome?

he certainly has some sort of syndrome...

[F-bernanke]

All of my gold was lost in a boating accident.

Ok I am taking the bait....  what happened?

This is the single biggest risk of owning gold. The worst part is that you have the dissapoint the confisqating government official with this bad news.

Yes, i lost my PM's on a boating trip last year.

[aminorex]

Ok I am taking the bait....  what happened?

No bait intended.  There is no punchline.  Gold lost in a boating accident is beyond seizure.  That's the end of my gold story.  Sadly I have forgotten the name of the lake.

[Apostata]

the question is:

Will the Chinese dump all their money into the market before its illegal or will they pump out all their money that is left.

Question of if its going to a big rise or a big fall.

A more pertinent question is:  Do you, or even I, who consider myself well informed on PRC internal matters, even have the ability to understand the meaning of "legal" in China, let alone the legal status of BTCChina's current arrangement with Shanghai Pudong.

You consider yourself well informed on the internal matters of the PRC?  Wow, you must be like one of 10 people in the world who can say that.  So, what are they going to do about bitcoin?

[empowering]

Ok I am taking the bait....  what happened?

No bait intended.  There is no punchline.  Gold lost in a boating accident is beyond seizure.  That's the end of my gold story.  Sadly I have forgotten the name of the lake.

All of my gold was lost in a boating accident.

Ok I am taking the bait....  what happened?

This is the single biggest risk of owning gold. The worst part is that you have the dissapoint the confisqating government official with this bad news.

Yes, i lost my PM's on a boating trip last year.

Ah I see... on the same boating trip that you mis-laid your private keys for all of your Cryptos I assume...  these boating trips can be a real hazard..

[aminorex]

You consider yourself well informed on the internal matters of the PRC?  Wow, you must be like one of 10 people in the world who can say that.  So, what are they going to do about bitcoin?

I use a rational standard of well-informed, rather than a ludicrous one, and it doesn't provide me with a ready facility to make that specific prediction with useful confidence.

[JorgeStolfi]

So with hours to go before the ban, BCTChina added direct bank transfers as funding and withdrawal options again. The last few weeks they only hat the voucher system operating.

I'm not sure that this is really great good news. 

As I understand it, last December Chinese banks were forbidden to deal in bitcoins themselves, and payment processors were told to stop making bitcoin-based payments and feeding bitcoin exchanges by jan/31.

BTC-China prudently stopped using banks and payment processors right away, and switched to "vouchers" (actually cryptographic keys) that one could buy through e-commerce sites like Taobao.  (Vouchers were not a sucess, the trade volume fell to less than 10%.) OKCoin continued using their corporate bank account for deposits and withdrawals.  Huobi first used the CEO's personal bank account but later switched to a corporate one.

I do not know whether the OKCoin/Huobi solution is acceptable to the government, or they will have to stop on jan/31.  But the market's behavior and BTC-China's decision seem to suggest that it will keep working for the time being.

On the other hand, selling vouchers through e-commerce sites effectively turns the latter into payment processors.  Chinese regulators are not so dumb that they could not see that.  Thus, it was no surprise that the main Chinese e-commerce site Alibaba/Taobao stopped selling BTC-China's vouchers by Jan/14 (ahead of the deadline).   WIth their presumed "safe" system cut off, I guess that BTC-China then decided to risk the OKCoin solution.

So, my conclusion is that it will be easier to move CNY in/out of BTC-China, but even harder to use USD or other currencies there.  BTC-China will now be able compete with Huobi and OKCoin in more even terms. The three of them will probably continue to operate normally beyond jan/31.

Good news for bulls, bad news for bears, I suppose.

Does this make sense?

[seleme]

But in the next 24-36 months, bitcoin is somewhere between 10k-50k. It simply has to be. The scale at which the entities getting involved now operate scale wise, bitcoin will be forced there. And 17 year olds that mined this useless Internet money will have their minds blown.

Ah, the forced $50,000 per Bitcoin in 2017.  Let's see what this means.  

If miners decide to sell all their mined Bitcoins, (or 50%), this is how much daily fresh money is needed on the exchanges for the price to be stable:

2014-2016 :   $180 million ($90 million daily if 50% sold)
2017-2020:   $90 million ($45 million daily)                          <--- look here
2021-2024:   $45 million ($22 million daily)
etc.

Don't forget that they have to sell to cover their electricity costs. So, if Bitcoin is $50,000 in 2017, good luck in finding that daily fifty million dollars.

The US National Debt has continued to increase an average of $2.49 billion per day since sept 30 2012... good luck in finding that too

edit: http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/

this clock is much better:

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

It's even worse in UK, they have a debt of 160 000 per capita, 3 times more than USA

[Bunkervogel]

nice spike huobi