Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

How? It's made some individuals wealthy, but only because other individuals have put money in, and those individuals are reliant on other new individuals putting money in to make their own returns. Bitcoin does not create money, it just moves it around.

Basically true.  One must distinguish "Investing and speculating in cryptocoins" and "the cryptocoin network".

The latter has the potential of actually creating new wealth by doing a useful service to society, namely allowing cheap international payments without direct bank intervention.  It is debatable how much that service will be worth (in concrete terms; say, how much more bread and wine the world will produce thanks to it).  It coud be a lot --- but certainly a lot less than what Bitcoin salesmen claim.

Investing and speculating in bitcoins does not create any wealth.  With a traditional corporation, the long-term investors are lending money to the company so that it can build the factories that will produce new wealth, and in return they will get a well-deserved fraction of that wealth. Short-term speculators, on the other hand, do not use their money to help the company, but only to suck money from other speculators or unwary novice investors.  (Some governments recognize that: Brazil, for one, has much higher revenue tax for day-trading profit than for long-term investment profit.)

Bitcoin trade is pure speculation, since none of the money that people spent buying bitcoins, from day zero, was loaned to the network to build its infrastructure or to pay his workers.  All the cash that successful bitcoin traders have pocketed came from the pockets of other traders.  All the wealth that bitcoin owners think they own is a slice of the world's future wealth, that they are not helping to create but still hope to grab if and when their bitcoins will be needed.

Only governments create money.

Actually, banks and many other entities create "money" of some sort, including cryptocoins.  Only productive work creates wealth.

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[mestar]

But in the next 24-36 months, bitcoin is somewhere between 10k-50k. It simply has to be. The scale at which the entities getting involved now operate scale wise, bitcoin will be forced there. And 17 year olds that mined this useless Internet money will have their minds blown.

Ah, the forced $50,000 per Bitcoin in 2017.  Let's see what this means.  

If miners decide to sell all their mined Bitcoins, (or 50%), this is how much daily fresh money is needed on the exchanges for the price to be stable:

2014-2016 :   $180 million ($90 million daily if 50% sold)
2017-2020:   $90 million ($45 million daily)                          <--- look here
2021-2024:   $45 million ($22 million daily)
etc.

Don't forget that they have to sell to cover their electricity costs. So, if Bitcoin is $50,000 in 2017, good luck in finding that daily fifty million dollars.

It's an interesting point.

But then, at 50,000 a coin, with around 15,000,000 coins in distribution (for the sake of argument), that gives a market cap roughly equivalent to the annual GDP of Benin or Moldova.

IF (and that's a big IF) Bitcoin does start really taking off worldwide, then 50m p/d is nothing. Forex sees around $5 trillion traded a day - around 0.2% of the daily Bitcoin USD trading volume in mid-Jan.

I know, I know. These numbers aren't direct comparisons, but it helps to put these big numbers in perspective now and again.

More meaningless numbers for comparison:  US from China imports around 1000 millions $ worth of stuff per day.  50 million is 5% of that.

[SilverandBitcoins]

I was just checking out the Troll Box at BTC-E.  One of the trolls was saying; Stupid BTC, why won't you crash!  lol

[F-bernanke]

I was just checking out the Troll Box at BTC-E.  One of the trolls was saying; Stupid BTC, why won't you crash!  lol

Yes, classic case of bear tears.

[granathus]

Huobi just exploded..

[billyjoeallen]

Ye except poker is a job for a decent chunk of people playing on these sites. I myself have friends who were forced to move outside of US just to continue playing.

I just wanted to emphasise the fact that there is a big creation of wealth with bitcoin that other activities don't provide.

How? It's made some individuals wealthy, but only because other individuals have put money in, and those individuals are reliant on other new individuals putting money in to make their own returns. Bitcoin does not create money, it just moves it around. Only governments create money.

Bitcoin increases transactional efficiency, therefore in creates wealth or more accurately destroys less wealth than alternative forms of value transfer. There is a difference between wealth and money. Money is a representation of wealth, but by increasing the money supply, governments dilute the value of each unit of currency.

[MikeH]

Huobi just exploded..

thought it might, back to 1200 tomorrow!

[Richy_T]

I think the reason they are going to try to vilify bitcoin and try to regulate the shit out of it is so that they can maintain their monopoly on the money laundering business.  

They want their slice of the pie. Preferably a bigger slice than yours.

Government is a monopoly on force. They are little better than bandits.

[Richy_T]

Sorry if this is old, wish I could have watched this live, but at 34:15 (1st panel of day 2) that second law guy nearly slips up and uses the term crypto currency instead of the term he was told to use, "virtual currency"

Virtual currency is another catch phrase that they want to embed in the subconscious. Virtual currency is very different from crypto currency. Crypto is the term I would use to define a currency protected by cryptography, like bitcoin. Virtual is the term I would use to define Amazon bucks, or WoW gold, or USD; these are currencies that are centralized and controlled. Crypto currency is neither centralized, nor controlled, and I think that would scare them to death, if they only understood.

Yep. I think the endgame for them is probably a virtual dollar. No more hiding stacks of bills in the mattress. When they want to give you a haircut, they just press the button and bam, you're worth 80% of what you were.

[Richy_T]

Cyrus R. Vance

The guy I compared to Hitler, yes.

they are going to try to ... regulate the shit out of it is so that they can maintain their monopoly on the money laundering business.  

Close enough, yeah.  But try is an illusion.  There is no try.  There is only fail.

I knew that would be out there already...

[billyjoeallen]

I think the reason they are going to try to vilify bitcoin and try to regulate the shit out of it is so that they can maintain their monopoly on the money laundering business.  

They want their slice of the pie. Preferably a bigger slice than yours.

Government is a monopoly on force. They are little better than bandits.

Worse. Bandits don't expect you to be grateful, don't pretend to be acting in your best interest.

[SilverandBitcoins]

Sorry if this is old, wish I could have watched this live, but at 34:15 (1st panel of day 2) that second law guy nearly slips up and uses the term crypto currency instead of the term he was told to use, "virtual currency"

Virtual currency is another catch phrase that they want to embed in the subconscious. Virtual currency is very different from crypto currency. Crypto is the term I would use to define a currency protected by cryptography, like bitcoin. Virtual is the term I would use to define Amazon bucks, or WoW gold, or USD; these are currencies that are centralized and controlled. Crypto currency is neither centralized, nor controlled, and I think that would scare them to death, if they only understood.

Yep. I think the endgame for them is probably a virtual dollar. No more hiding stacks of bills in the mattress. When they want to give you a haircut, they just press the button and bam, you're worth 80% of what you were.

That's a good argument for gold and silver.  I wonder how many posting here also invest in physical precious metals?

[F-bernanke]

Sorry if this is old, wish I could have watched this live, but at 34:15 (1st panel of day 2) that second law guy nearly slips up and uses the term crypto currency instead of the term he was told to use, "virtual currency"

Virtual currency is another catch phrase that they want to embed in the subconscious. Virtual currency is very different from crypto currency. Crypto is the term I would use to define a currency protected by cryptography, like bitcoin. Virtual is the term I would use to define Amazon bucks, or WoW gold, or USD; these are currencies that are centralized and controlled. Crypto currency is neither centralized, nor controlled, and I think that would scare them to death, if they only understood.

Yep. I think the endgame for them is probably a virtual dollar. No more hiding stacks of bills in the mattress. When they want to give you a haircut, they just press the button and bam, you're worth 80% of what you were.

That's a good argument for gold and silver.  I wonder how many posting here also invest in physical precious metals?

Yes, I was a PM stacker before i discovered bitcoin and i still own PM.

[billyjoeallen]

Sorry if this is old, wish I could have watched this live, but at 34:15 (1st panel of day 2) that second law guy nearly slips up and uses the term crypto currency instead of the term he was told to use, "virtual currency"

Virtual currency is another catch phrase that they want to embed in the subconscious. Virtual currency is very different from crypto currency. Crypto is the term I would use to define a currency protected by cryptography, like bitcoin. Virtual is the term I would use to define Amazon bucks, or WoW gold, or USD; these are currencies that are centralized and controlled. Crypto currency is neither centralized, nor controlled, and I think that would scare them to death, if they only understood.

Yep. I think the endgame for them is probably a virtual dollar. No more hiding stacks of bills in the mattress. When they want to give you a haircut, they just press the button and bam, you're worth 80% of what you were.

That's a good argument for gold and silver.  I wonder how many posting here also invest in physical precious metals?

The U.S. Government stole most of the private gold held by Americans in 1933. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 The precedent was set and they could easily do it again. Good luck trying to steal bitcoins. Private keys? What private keys? I lost/destroyed/exposed/ate them. Good luck hiding gold in a brain wallet.

[Richy_T]

This is pretty funny.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-01-29/difference-between-gold-and-bitcoin-explained-elliotts-paul-singer

in other words, "don't invest your money in these new-fangled automobiles. Horses have stood the test of time." this from a guy managing a 23.3 billion dollar horse farm.

Talk your book, much?

The human brain is fantastic at rationalizing stuff. It's a learned skill to step outside of that and examine ones beliefs. Self examination brings insight. Most people aren't even aware of what they're doing.

[F-bernanke]

The U.S. Government stole most of the private gold held by Americans in 1933. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 The precedent was set and they could easily do it again. Good luck trying to steal bitcoins. Private keys? What private keys? I lost/destroyed/exposed/ate them. Good luck hiding gold in a brain wallet.

Yes, i lost my PM's on a boating trip last year. PM's will soar once the paper and physical price decouples, but they can probably extent the manipulation a few more years, and will do this again after a major collapse, PM's are NOT the solution, it's just my insurance, BTC could be the solution.

[SilverandBitcoins]

Sorry if this is old, wish I could have watched this live, but at 34:15 (1st panel of day 2) that second law guy nearly slips up and uses the term crypto currency instead of the term he was told to use, "virtual currency"

Virtual currency is another catch phrase that they want to embed in the subconscious. Virtual currency is very different from crypto currency. Crypto is the term I would use to define a currency protected by cryptography, like bitcoin. Virtual is the term I would use to define Amazon bucks, or WoW gold, or USD; these are currencies that are centralized and controlled. Crypto currency is neither centralized, nor controlled, and I think that would scare them to death, if they only understood.

Yep. I think the endgame for them is probably a virtual dollar. No more hiding stacks of bills in the mattress. When they want to give you a haircut, they just press the button and bam, you're worth 80% of what you were.

That's a good argument for gold and silver.  I wonder how many posting here also invest in physical precious metals?

The U.S. Government stole most of the private gold held by Americans in 1933. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 The precedent was set and they could easily do it again. Good luck trying to steal bitcoins. Private keys? What private keys? I lost/destroyed/exposed/ate them. Good luck hiding gold in a brain wallet.

  I had heard that most people did not turn in their gold during the U.S. confiscation.  Silver was untouched.

[bambou]

Huabi has fake traffic.

Gox and okcoin too, I wonder what percentage of trades aren't fake - mine are real, I promise

stamp isnt that much moving anyway

[aminorex]

the question is:

Will the Chinese dump all their money into the market before its illegal or will they pump out all their money that is left.

Question of if its going to a big rise or a big fall.

A more pertinent question is:  Do you, or even I, who consider myself well informed on PRC internal matters, even have the ability to understand the meaning of "legal" in China, let alone the legal status of BTCChina's current arrangement with Shanghai Pudong.

[Erdogan]

true reason for the drop - http://www.nasdaq.com/article/bitcoin-drops-3-as-emerging-market-concerns-ease-cm321692

Interesting. I can see why distress in emerging markets would be good for Bitcoin, and I predict a whole lot more distress to come. Not happy about that even if it will be good for my bottom line. Lotta people gonna get hurt. They'll get less hurt if they buy some bitcoin.

All headlines about financial events are always composed in the following manner:

<something just happened> [as|after|despite] <something unrelated that happened at the same time>

The second part after the "as" is chosen randomly. Its sole purpose is to make it appear as if they were able to understand or explain what is going on. You will not find a single news source that would ever publish an article about a currency or commodity or stock rising or falling without the obligatory "as"-clause attached to it in the headline, no matter how absurd it may seem:

"Bitcoin drops as emerging market concerns ease"
"Bitcoin drops as Fed is cutting stimulus further"
"Bitcoin drops after disappointing Apple report"
"Bitcoin drops despite disappointing Apple report"
"Bitcoin drops as Google Doodle celebrates Year of the Horse"
"Bitcoin drops despite 6-time All-Star Lance Berkman announcing retirement"
"Bitcoin drops as Justin Bieber is charged with Toronto limo driver assault"

"Bitcoin rallies as emerging market concerns ease"
"Bitcoin rallies despite Fed cutting stimulus further"
"Bitcoin rallies after disappointing Apple report"
"Bitcoin rallies despite disappointing Apple report"
"Bitcoin rallies as Google Doodle celebrates Year of the Horse"
"Bitcoin rallies as 6-time All-Star Lance Berkman announces retirement"
"Bitcoin rallies as Justin Bieber is charged with Toronto limo driver assault"

This is correct. We need a name for this syndrome.