Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Norway]

Jorge, I just don't get you. You are allways such a downer. At the same time, you spend a lot of effort and energy at reasearch and writing about bitcoin. What is your motivation?

He's here to use his superior brain and education to save us from ourselves. I think it's a bit too late for most though.

Actually, at first I was worried about attempts to sell bitcoin around these parts as hedge against inflation, get-filthy-rich-quick schema, etc..  But thankfully my Country does not seem to need my services in that matter: Brazilians do not seem to be much interested in bitcoin, and you bitcoiners are already doing a great job at saving the world from yourselves. 

Seriously, what is your motivation, sir?

[JorgeStolfi]

I was thinking more of some kind of outliers like "what if the twins get shot down in their attempts to set up the ETF and just give up and dump their coins" or other crazy stuff...

That could happen too.

However, I wonder how many bitcoins are stil held by the Chinese investors and traders.  I suspect that the missing MtGOX bitcoins were sold there in 2013, so the Chinese may have bough perhaps a couple million BTC altogether, over that year.  They may also have saved some of the coins that they mined, but that cannot be more than a few hundred thousand BTC.    Depending on how much they still hold, a dump of 200'000 BTC by the Winkles may not be enough to bring the price below 100.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Jorge, I just don't get you. You are allways such a downer. At the same time, you spend a lot of effort and energy at reasearch and writing about bitcoin. What is your motivation?

He's here to use his superior brain and education to save us from ourselves. I think it's a bit too late for most though.

Actually, at first I was worried about attempts to sell bitcoin around these parts as hedge against inflation, get-filthy-rich-quick schema, etc..  But thankfully my Country does not seem to need my services in that matter: Brazilians do not seem to be much interested in bitcoin, and you bitcoiners are already doing a great job at saving the world from yourselves. 

so you agree it is not a get-rich-quick now?

if you had suffered the first 3 bear markets you would have known that ... like we tried to tell you know-it-all.

So you don't have much reason to hang around, you look terrible btw.

[shmadz]

That coinbase has some nice buy support. Not sure I've ever seen that much depth in coinbase's orderbook before.

Thanks for the chart. As they say "liquidity begets liquidity".

If I were the skeptical type, I would speculate that this is coinbase using some of their recent funding in an attempt to lure more volume trading on their platform.

If I were the more conspiratorial type, I might suggest this is just fake walls...

[NotHatinJustTrollin]

Jorge, I just don't get you. You are allways such a downer. At the same time, you spend a lot of effort and energy at reasearch and writing about bitcoin. What is your motivation?

He's here to use his superior brain and education to save us from ourselves. I think it's a bit too late for most though.

Actually, at first I was worried about attempts to sell bitcoin around these parts as hedge against inflation, get-filthy-rich-quick schema, etc..  But thankfully my Country does not seem to need my services in that matter: Brazilians do not seem to be much interested in bitcoin, and you bitcoiners are already doing a great job at saving the world from yourselves.  

so you agree it is not a get-rich-quick now?

if you had suffered the first 3 bear markets you would have known that ... like we tried to tell you know-it-all.

So you don't have much reason to hang around, you look terrible btw.

Except that this bear market is the longest in BTC history, by far (more than double the 2011 one).
Also, the actual pump (to $1200) was quicker than the other two bubbles, which makes it an even more unsustainable and ridiculous pump&dump.

[JorgeStolfi]

Seriously, what is your motivation, sir?

Seriously, the original motivation was what I wrote above.  (I have been doing a similar public crusade against all-digital voting for over 10 years, for example. I see such things as being part of my job.)

At this point, it is mostly the "sunken cost fallacy": I have spent so much time reading and analyzing this topic that I cannot just stop and go waste time on something else.  I'd better watch the movie to the end.  Plus, there are still some interesting questions and analyses that I can play with.

[shmadz]

Seriously, what is your motivation, sir?

Seriously, the original motivation was what I wrote above.  (I have been doing a similar public crusade against all-digital voting for over 10 years, for example. I see such things as being part of my job.)

At this point, it is mostly the "sunken cost fallacy": I have spent so much time reading and analyzing this topic that I cannot just stop and go waste time on something else.  I'd better watch the movie to the end.  Plus, there are still some interesting questions and analyses that I can play with.

Personally, I think the fact that even the biggest skeptics and detractors of bitcoin are still (after the longest bear market in history) compelled to watch this market incessantly speaks volumes of the underlying potential of this technology.

[Norway]

Seriously, what is your motivation, sir?

Seriously, the original motivation was what I wrote above.  (I have been doing a similar public crusade against all-digital voting for over 10 years, for example. I see such things as being part of my job.)

At this point, it is mostly the "sunken cost fallacy": I have spent so much time reading and analyzing this topic that I cannot just stop and go waste time on something else.  I'd better watch the movie to the end.  Plus, there are still some interesting questions and analyses that I can play with.

"Actually, at first I was worried about attempts to sell bitcoin around these parts as hedge against inflation, get-filthy-rich-quick schema, etc..  But thankfully my Country does not seem to need my services in that matter: Brazilians do not seem to be much interested in bitcoin, and you bitcoiners are already doing a great job at saving the world from yourselves."

Sorry sir, but I don't trust you. I think you work at the troll factory. You just spend too much time on bitcoin while being negative.

[JorgeStolfi]

so you agree it is not a get-rich-quick now?

It doesn't  look much like one now, does it?  But there are still people trying to sell it as such...

you look terrible btw.

I gather that my previous avatars left some people intimidated and profoundly disturbed by the strength of character that emanated from my majestic beauty.   I was compared to Jimbo Wales, none less.  I hope that you can bear to gaze upon this one without shuddering in awe.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Shatoshi]

Is there any way to approximate how many shadow bids/asks are hiding in the orderbooks?  Or at least find out after the fact?  Just watching what effects the bitfinex price makes me skeptical that the visible walls are at all representative.

[Norway]

so you agree it is not a get-rich-quick now?

It doesn't  look much like one now, does it?  But there are still people trying to sell it as such...

you look terrible btw.

I gather that my previous avatars left some people intimidated and profoundly disturbed by the strength of character that emanated from my majestic beauty.   I was compared to Jimbo Wales, none less.  I hope that you can bear to gaze upon this one without shuddering in awe.

Seriously. Is this your motivation to reasearch (I know you do your homework) and express yourself so actively on bitcointalk and reddit? Here is your own words about your motivation:

"Actually, at first I was worried about attempts to sell bitcoin around these parts as hedge against inflation, get-filthy-rich-quick schema, etc..  But thankfully my Country does not seem to need my services in that matter: Brazilians do not seem to be much interested in bitcoin, and you bitcoiners are already doing a great job at saving the world from yourselves."

[coinableS]

That coinbase has some nice buy support. Not sure I've ever seen that much depth in coinbase's orderbook before.

Thanks for the chart. As they say "liquidity begets liquidity".

If I were the skeptical type, I would speculate that this is coinbase using some of their recent funding in an attempt to lure more volume trading on their platform.

If I were the more conspiratorial type, I might suggest this is just fake walls...

That's quite a large rise in volume out of nowhere... Why?? I like your "skeptical type" answer above, coinbase fluffing their own orderbook?

[shmadz]

so you agree it is not a get-rich-quick now?

It doesn't  look much like one now, does it?  But there are still people trying to sell it as such...

you look terrible btw.

I gather that my previous avatars left some people intimidated and profoundly disturbed by the strength of character that emanated from my majestic beauty.   I was compared to Jimbo Wales, none less.  I hope that you can bear to gaze upon this one without shuddering in awe.

Seriously. Is this your motivation to reasearch (I know you do your homework) and express yourself so actively on bitcointalk and reddit? Here is your own words about your motivation:

"Actually, at first I was worried about attempts to sell bitcoin around these parts as hedge against inflation, get-filthy-rich-quick schema, etc..  But thankfully my Country does not seem to need my services in that matter: Brazilians do not seem to be much interested in bitcoin, and you bitcoiners are already doing a great job at saving the world from yourselves."

Why would you need a hedge against inflation when the government is doing such a great job and everything's fine?

The inflation rate in Brazil was recorded at 8.13 percent in March of 2015. Inflation Rate in Brazil averaged 386.20 percent from 1980 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 6821.31 percent in April of 1990

Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/brazil/inflation-cpi

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Searing]

<snip>

I'm not convinced. How low are we talking here?

Double digits!

Can you believe your luck?

How low? I don't know. I'm just preparing mentally for the fact that the price could re-test 166, perhaps even break through that support and then, who knows?

Double digits seem outrageous right now, but there are many scenarios that could cause such a drop.

-----
I used to always say that phrase "low as possible, long as possible" with the assumption that bitcoin will someday, ultimately succeed, resulting in a price well over 10,000 dollars. I'm not as confident that that is a safe assumption anymore, but, at the right price, I still think it's a good bet.

For example, let's say price hits 100 dollars. I still think there's a 50-50 chance it will either go to zero or bounce back to 200. That would be even money if those were the only two possible outcomes, but they are not. Zero is indeed the absolute bottom, but if it were to bounce back to 200 there is no reason it couldn't continue to 300 or 400 etc...

The fact that the downside risk is limited, but the upside is unlimited is the reason I continue to hold on.

for me it is more basic....I'm like a monkey who fell into a bunch of nuts......they may spoil they may go bad from non-use...but I'll be damned if I will get rid of my monkey pile of nuts (ie bitcoin) ....the old primate all or nothing gamble....(mine, mine, mine)

[JorgeStolfi]

Why would you need a hedge against inflation when the government is doing such a great job and everything's fine?

The inflation rate in Brazil was recorded at 8.13 percent in March of 2015.

That's inflation (specifically, consumer price index increase) in March extrapolated for the whole year.  It is still less than the nominal inflation of bitcoin (~9%/year) and MUCH less than the actual change in consumer price index of bitcoin (135%/year in 2014).

Inflation Rate in Brazil averaged 386.20 percent from 1980 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 6821.31 percent in April of 1990

Right, but who was complaining about cherry-picking time windows? Since the irresponsible profligate demagogical Keynesian socialists came to power in 2003, inflation has been around 5%/year.  Did I say that it was less than bitcoin's nominal inflation of 9%/year?

But the past performance is not the real problem.  The problem with bitcoin is that it is a ticket to a lottery with unknown prizes and odds. There is no way of even assigning rough probabilities to its value next month being in any range whatsoever.   It may go to zero in a few days, it may go "to the moon", who knows.

What we do know is that the Top Experts in bitcoin have not the foggiest idea of what the price will do, either.  And what I have learned so far tells me that each of the past bubbles were caused by distinct sources of demand that are already exhausted; so the occurrence of a future larger bubble depends on another source of demand with greater magnitude -- which no one can tell whether or when it will appear.

Therefore, selling bitcoin as a hedge against anything, or as good investment, is scamming, pure and simple.  Trying to sell it to the Third World poor, by telling them that it will make them rich, is a crime against humanity.  If you need another million fools to buy your coins and pay for your Lamborghinis, at least look for them among the wealthy, thank you.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[noobtrader]

price are barely moving for the last few days, i wonder what bears really feels right now

[fonzie]

price are barely moving for the last few days, i wonder what bears really feels right now

They are scared shitless, after all those unforeseen brutal pumps and short squeezes in the last time. BTC really looks strong as fuck, 7$ above the last low... Demand is undeniable HUGE right now, everyone and their mother are cleary killing each other to get their hands on those dirt cheap coins! Choo Choo