Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Searing]

<snip>

I'm not convinced. How low are we talking here?

Double digits!

Can you believe your luck?

How low? I don't know. I'm just preparing mentally for the fact that the price could re-test 166, perhaps even break through that support and then, who knows?

Double digits seem outrageous right now, but there are many scenarios that could cause such a drop.

-----
I used to always say that phrase "low as possible, long as possible" with the assumption that bitcoin will someday, ultimately succeed, resulting in a price well over 10,000 dollars. I'm not as confident that that is a safe assumption anymore, but, at the right price, I still think it's a good bet.

For example, let's say price hits 100 dollars. I still think there's a 50-50 chance it will either go to zero or bounce back to 200. That would be even money if those were the only two possible outcomes, but they are not. Zero is indeed the absolute bottom, but if it were to bounce back to 200 there is no reason it couldn't continue to 300 or 400 etc...

The fact that the downside risk is limited, but the upside is unlimited is the reason I continue to hold on.

for me it is more basic....I'm like a monkey who fell into a bunch of nuts......they may spoil they may go bad from non-use...but I'll be damned if I will get rid of my monkey pile of nuts (ie bitcoin) ....the old primate all or nothing gamble....(mine, mine, mine)

[JorgeStolfi]

Why would you need a hedge against inflation when the government is doing such a great job and everything's fine?

The inflation rate in Brazil was recorded at 8.13 percent in March of 2015.

That's inflation (specifically, consumer price index increase) in March extrapolated for the whole year.  It is still less than the nominal inflation of bitcoin (~9%/year) and MUCH less than the actual change in consumer price index of bitcoin (135%/year in 2014).

Inflation Rate in Brazil averaged 386.20 percent from 1980 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 6821.31 percent in April of 1990

Right, but who was complaining about cherry-picking time windows? Since the irresponsible profligate demagogical Keynesian socialists came to power in 2003, inflation has been around 5%/year.  Did I say that it was less than bitcoin's nominal inflation of 9%/year?

But the past performance is not the real problem.  The problem with bitcoin is that it is a ticket to a lottery with unknown prizes and odds. There is no way of even assigning rough probabilities to its value next month being in any range whatsoever.   It may go to zero in a few days, it may go "to the moon", who knows.

What we do know is that the Top Experts in bitcoin have not the foggiest idea of what the price will do, either.  And what I have learned so far tells me that each of the past bubbles were caused by distinct sources of demand that are already exhausted; so the occurrence of a future larger bubble depends on another source of demand with greater magnitude -- which no one can tell whether or when it will appear.

Therefore, selling bitcoin as a hedge against anything, or as good investment, is scamming, pure and simple.  Trying to sell it to the Third World poor, by telling them that it will make them rich, is a crime against humanity.  If you need another million fools to buy your coins and pay for your Lamborghinis, at least look for them among the wealthy, thank you.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[noobtrader]

price are barely moving for the last few days, i wonder what bears really feels right now

[fonzie]

price are barely moving for the last few days, i wonder what bears really feels right now

They are scared shitless, after all those unforeseen brutal pumps and short squeezes in the last time. BTC really looks strong as fuck, 7$ above the last low... Demand is undeniable HUGE right now, everyone and their mother are cleary killing each other to get their hands on those dirt cheap coins! Choo Choo

[shmadz]

Why would you need a hedge against inflation when the government is doing such a great job and everything's fine?

The inflation rate in Brazil was recorded at 8.13 percent in March of 2015.

That's inflation (specifically, consumer price index increase) in March extrapolated for the whole year.  It is still less than the nominal inflation of bitcoin (~9%/year) and MUCH less than the actual change in consumer price index of bitcoin (135%/year in 2014).

Inflation Rate in Brazil averaged 386.20 percent from 1980 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 6821.31 percent in April of 1990

Right, but who was complaining about cherry-picking time windows? Since the irresponsible profligate demagogical Keynesian socialists came to power in 2003, inflation has been around 5%/year.  Did I say that it was less than bitcoin's nominal inflation of 9%/year?

But the past performance is not the real problem.  The problem with bitcoin is that it is a ticket to a lottery with unknown prizes and odds. There is no way of even assigning rough probabilities to its value next month being in any range whatsoever.   It may go to zero in a few days, it may go "to the moon", who knows.

What we do know is that the Top Experts in bitcoin have not the foggiest idea of what the price will do, either.  And what I have learned so far tells me that each of the past bubbles were caused by distinct sources of demand that are already exhausted; so the occurrence of a future larger bubble depends on another source of demand with greater magnitude -- which no one can tell whether or when it will appear.

Therefore, selling bitcoin as a hedge against anything, or as good investment, is scamming, pure and simple.  Trying to sell it to the Third World poor, by telling them that it will make them rich, is a crime against humanity.  If you need another million fools to buy your coins and pay for your Lamborghinis, at least look for them among the wealthy, thank you.

I do not wish to sell bitcoin to anyone. In fact I'd rather that the price stay as low as possible for as long as possible, thank you very much.

I simply think that if you are earning negative interest rates, or suffering from double-digit average inflation, you might want to consider an alternative.

BTW, inflation rate of bitcoin is going to be cut in half in a couple years. I know this with relative certainty.     How certain are you of the inflation rate of the real in two years hence?

[coinits]

Why would you need a hedge against inflation when the government is doing such a great job and everything's fine?

The inflation rate in Brazil was recorded at 8.13 percent in March of 2015.

That's inflation (specifically, consumer price index increase) in March extrapolated for the whole year.  It is still less than the nominal inflation of bitcoin (~9%/year) and MUCH less than the actual change in consumer price index of bitcoin (135%/year in 2014).

Inflation Rate in Brazil averaged 386.20 percent from 1980 until 2015, reaching an all time high of 6821.31 percent in April of 1990

Right, but who was complaining about cherry-picking time windows? Since the irresponsible profligate demagogical Keynesian socialists came to power in 2003, inflation has been around 5%/year.  Did I say that it was less than bitcoin's nominal inflation of 9%/year?

But the past performance is not the real problem.  The problem with bitcoin is that it is a ticket to a lottery with unknown prizes and odds. There is no way of even assigning rough probabilities to its value next month being in any range whatsoever.   It may go to zero in a few days, it may go "to the moon", who knows.

What we do know is that the Top Experts in bitcoin have not the foggiest idea of what the price will do, either.  And what I have learned so far tells me that each of the past bubbles were caused by distinct sources of demand that are already exhausted; so the occurrence of a future larger bubble depends on another source of demand with greater magnitude -- which no one can tell whether or when it will appear.

Therefore, selling bitcoin as a hedge against anything, or as good investment, is scamming, pure and simple.  Trying to sell it to the Third World poor, by telling them that it will make them rich, is a crime against humanity.  If you need another million fools to buy your coins and pay for your Lamborghinis, at least look for them among the wealthy, thank you.

I do not wish to sell bitcoin to anyone. In fact I'd rather that the price stay as low as possible for as long as possible, thank you very much.

I simply think that if you are earning negative interest rates, or suffering from double-digit average inflation, you might want to consider an alternative.

BTW, inflation rate of bitcoin is going to be cut in half in a couple years. I know this with relative certainty.     How certain are you of the inflation rate of the real in two years hence?

Agreed, and I would like to see the price drop to $75-$100 to shake a lot of weak hands out and a lot of large farms cease operations.

[Norway]

price are barely moving for the last few days, i wonder what bears really feels right now

They are scared shitless, after all those unforeseen brutal pumps and short squeezes in the last time. BTC really looks strong as fuck, 7$ above the last low... Demand is undeniable HUGE right now, everyone and their mother are cleary killing each other to get their hands on those dirt cheap coins! Choo Choo

I have predicted monday as "Wall Street Monday". The day when all the actors have decided to kick it off. (Because they realised bitcoin is unstoppable, and make the best out of it). I'm probably wrong, but it's my first and most likely last short term prediction about bitcoin in this forum 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Erdogan]

I sense that a lot of people want in or want to expand their holdings - but the fear of a sudden dump, coming from nowhere, holds them back.  Bullish!

[noobtrader]

price are barely moving for the last few days, i wonder what bears really feels right now

They are scared shitless, after all those unforeseen brutal pumps and short squeezes in the last time. BTC really looks strong as fuck, 7$ above the last low... Demand is undeniable HUGE right now, everyone and their mother are cleary killing each other to get their hands on those dirt cheap coins! Choo Choo

I have predicted monday as "Wall Street Monday". The day when all the actors have decided to kick it off. (Because they realised bitcoin is unstoppable, and make the best out of it). I'm probably wrong, but it's my first and most likely last short term prediction about bitcoin in this forum 

totally cant wait for 24 hours, and if scenario for the price 

[shmadz]

I sense that a lot of people want in or want to expand their holdings - but the fear of a sudden dump, coming from nowhere, holds them back.  Bullish!

I sense that this new bid wall at coinbase (which was non-existent last night, btw) means that some one, or some group, is afraid the price might go lower...

Otherwise, if I were looking to actually buy mass amounts, I would not publicly advertise such a wall. I would try to buy on the down low and would very much welcome, or rather encourage,  a drop below 220.

Last night's increase in bid depth on both sides has all the trappings of an exchange that is lacking in both volume and customers.

If coinbase could offer some serious liquidity, it might entice some customers to endure their excessive kyc compliance requirements..

(* in fact, it's possible those walls might have been put up specifically to lure some people who would like to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity to fork over their personal information to create a coinbase account. I don't want to be responsible for libel so I won't comment on the possibility that coinbase is now operating as a bitcoin money-laundering honeypot...   )

I'd like to make it clear I'm not saying anything other than that I found it curious that the bid and ask depth at coinbase increased by approximately 1.5 million dollars and 5000 bitcoin respectively overnight last night.

[Norway]

I sense that a lot of people want in or want to expand their holdings - but the fear of a sudden dump, coming from nowhere, holds them back.  Bullish!

I sense that this new bid wall at coinbase (which was non-existent last night, btw) means that some one, or some group, is afraid the price might go lower...

Otherwise, if I were looking to actually buy mass amounts, I would not publicly advertise such a wall. I would try to buy on the down low and would very much welcome, or rather encourage,  a drop below 220.

Last night's increase in bid depth on both sides has all the trappings of an exchange that is lacking in both volume and customers.

If coinbase could offer some serious liquidity, it might entice some customers to endure their excessive kyc compliance requirements..

(* in fact, it's possible those walls might have been put up specifically to lure some people who would like to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity to fork over their personal information to create a coinbase account. I don't want to be responsible for libel so I won't comment on the possibility that coinbase is now operating as a bitcoin money-laundering honeypot...  )

Do not overestimate the power of registered bids/asks on exchanges. They are vital for an exchange to work. Yet, the power is in the hands of people meeting their offers.

[shmadz]

I sense that a lot of people want in or want to expand their holdings - but the fear of a sudden dump, coming from nowhere, holds them back.  Bullish!

I sense that this new bid wall at coinbase (which was non-existent last night, btw) means that some one, or some group, is afraid the price might go lower...

Otherwise, if I were looking to actually buy mass amounts, I would not publicly advertise such a wall. I would try to buy on the down low and would very much welcome, or rather encourage,  a drop below 220.

Last night's increase in bid depth on both sides has all the trappings of an exchange that is lacking in both volume and customers.

If coinbase could offer some serious liquidity, it might entice some customers to endure their excessive kyc compliance requirements..

(* in fact, it's possible those walls might have been put up specifically to lure some people who would like to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity to fork over their personal information to create a coinbase account. I don't want to be responsible for libel so I won't comment on the possibility that coinbase is now operating as a bitcoin money-laundering honeypot...  )

Do not overestimate the power of registered bids/asks on exchanges. They are vital for an exchange to work. Yet, the power is in the hands of people meeting their offers.

Right. And if I had a struggling exchange I would never consider fudging the books to make it seem like there was extra liquidity or volume on my privately controlled, off-chain database. Cuz that kind of thing never happens in bitcoin land....

(Ok, I'll shut up with the conspiratorial bullshit now)

[Norway]

I sense that a lot of people want in or want to expand their holdings - but the fear of a sudden dump, coming from nowhere, holds them back.  Bullish!

I sense that this new bid wall at coinbase (which was non-existent last night, btw) means that some one, or some group, is afraid the price might go lower...

Otherwise, if I were looking to actually buy mass amounts, I would not publicly advertise such a wall. I would try to buy on the down low and would very much welcome, or rather encourage,  a drop below 220.

Last night's increase in bid depth on both sides has all the trappings of an exchange that is lacking in both volume and customers.

If coinbase could offer some serious liquidity, it might entice some customers to endure their excessive kyc compliance requirements..

(* in fact, it's possible those walls might have been put up specifically to lure some people who would like to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity to fork over their personal information to create a coinbase account. I don't want to be responsible for libel so I won't comment on the possibility that coinbase is now operating as a bitcoin money-laundering honeypot...  )

Do not overestimate the power of registered bids/asks on exchanges. They are vital for an exchange to work. Yet, the power is in the hands of people meeting their offers.

Right. And if I had a struggling exchange I would never consider fudging the books to make it seem like there was extra liquidity or volume on my privately controlled, off-chain database. Cuz that kind of thing never happens in bitcoin land....

(Ok, I'll shut up with the conspiratorial bullshit now)

I predict on what I think is the future. Not dynamic ask/bid offers on exchanges. And certainly not history / graphs of previous prices 

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[mavericklm]

this is boring!!!

i want to see 100$!!!

i want to see 400$!!!

go go go!!!
   

[shmadz]

this is boring!!!

i want to see 100$!!!

i want to see 400$!!!

go go go!!!
   

Unfortunately, that is precisely the kind of market movement I suspect the recent bid depth (on both sides mind you) at coinbase is designed to prevent.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

this is boring!!!

i want to see 100$!!!

i want to see 400$!!!

go go go!!!
 

Unfortunately, that is precisely the kind of market movement I suspect the recent bid depth (on both sides mind you) at coinbase is designed to prevent.

It is a genuine and observable wall show. I can almost hear it

http://www.bitlisten.com/

[Dilla]

Not a ripple in the water all day, smooth as glass. Which way is this thing going to go?