Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[1715103226]

1715103226

[1715103226]

1715103226

[inca]

mmmm i have a feeling things are going to get ugly within 8 hrs

Your feelings seem to be fairly attuned to your active positions

Is that a bad thing? What's better - someone who openly states their positions and shares their opinion on the market, or the guy who just says "moon tomorrow" / "double digits within a week"?

I must have missed his declaration of his positions!

[hyphymikey]

@hyphymikey

Now we just need Elvis to buy it up to 4-500$ with a single buy on all exchanges at the same time and your wet dream becomes true. Not saying it's impossible tho...

I don't need Elvis to do it on all exchanges, just bfx, arbitrage won't be fast enough to take advantage of a cascade. A short cascade will easily bring the price up to my highball asks.

Elvis himself could profit, buy it up to 500, watch the shorts do the rest, sell all of his coins over 1000 lol.

Profit to be made, but we all know a cascade in either direction has a very slim chance.

[bassclef]

Do any of you more intelligent traders know anything about lag time between realtime trading on bitfinex and trades being reported to bots/services/observers?  Because I definitely notice the lag from time to time, I would definitely believe the claims that insiders are taking advantage of the imperfect distribution of information.

Everyone uses the live API--bots, web interface, trading software, bitcoin chart sites... Using a bot is only faster because it can make decisions and place orders very quickly. Generally everyone gets the info as it comes, no delay.

[JorgeStolfi]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Chef Ramsay]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

[gentlemand]

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

It's a big leap from just another stock though. There's a lot to teach and a lot of scepticism to overcome. She probably has to do as much educating as hustling and smoothing things over.

There's a lot to know and worry about going wrong in the eyes of someone who could approve it.

[Fatman3001]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather 

What the heck, why not feed the TLDR Troll.

I'm guessing one of the functions of Gemini would be to provide liquidity to the ETF in an open and regulated way. Thus it would make sense to base it in New York, or at least have it comply with/conform to the BitLicense. Not to mention that if it's going to be an insured exchange they ought to comply/conform to the strictest or leading standards in order to keep insurance costs down. Plus, New York is where the money's at.

I would think they would launch the Gemini exchange before they launch the ETF since there might very well be that they won't get the ETF unless it's hooked up to an exchange that meets certain requirements. I am not sure if Coinbase meets the requirements to provide liquidity to an ETF.

Yes, it's all guesswork. But looking at the launch of Gemini it looks like not even the Twinkledinkles know what it takes to get that ETF through, so I'm in good company.

[Norway]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

I'm sure Kathleen Moriarty has the skills needed, but this is a much bigger game than her getting ETFs approved by SEC through her carreer. The dollar and banking is at stake. At the same time, I think the people with power has realized that they have no good weapons to shut down bitcoin. I think they are just manipulating the price / stalling and trying to time everything in their favor. But I could be wrong (as I usually am when wearing my tinfoil hat.)

[Erdogan]

Hm, if there is going to be a weekend-end-pump, it is slow to start.

[Fatman3001]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

I'm sure Kathleen Moriarty has the skills needed, but this is a much bigger game than her getting ETFs approved by SEC through her carreer. The dollar and banking is at stake. At the same time, I think the people with power has realized that they have no good weapons to shut down bitcoin. I think they are just manipulating the price / stalling and trying to time everything in their favor. But I could be wrong (as I usually am when wearing my tinfoil hat.)

The US government can if they want to. All they need to do is arrest key people in the Bitcoin community for distributing an illegal alternative to the legal national currency and make a statement saying that the use of bitcoin is illegal. No lawmakers need to get involved, they have all the precedence they need. If they made it a priority to stop the use of bitcoin internationally they would make it part of their foreign policy and you would see one country after another fall in line. And Norway would be that annoying kid that does it very quickly and then starts pestering the other countries to do it too.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Norway]

Hm, if there is going to be a weekend-end-pump, it is slow to start.

Yes, not exactly pump action going on. I have predicted (my first ever short term prediction on this forum) that monday will be "Wall Street Monday!!!"

But if true, that would make insiders buy now. And we don't see that.

BTW, sorry for accusing you of deleting posts. I was drunk in a troll storm. One guy even faked your username. (Ergodan). I received weired, threataning PMs as well, after accusing Jorge of being hired of a troll factory.

No hard feelings?

[Norway]

GBTC might start trading on monday, but I would think Gemini/Coin would want to comply with the final BitLicense before they launched.

As I understand, Gemini (the Winkles' exchange) depends only on ordinary bureaucratic licenses (MSB, MTB, whatever).  If  Coinbase can function, they should be able to function too (unless they are based in NY and have to wait for the BitLicense because of that).

The COIN ETF is more complicated: it must be approved by the SEC, which is not just a bureaucratic formality.  There is no way to tell how long the SEC will take to decide, or whather it will get approved at all.  (In fact, I have read somewhere that, the longer the SEC takes to decide, the less likely is that it will be approved.)

whather  

I find it hard to believe that the heavyweight attorney that specializes in this SEC stuff can't make it happen or know the approach to making it a high probability. I'm sure she has had clients that work in key areas of the SEC and/or is on a first name basis w/ politicians that can properly lean on the needed personnel to lock this up. Furthermore, I'm sure major interest across wall street and the hedge fund scene want this type of thing up and running to put portions of their assets into it for an intense growth wing.

I'm sure Kathleen Moriarty has the skills needed, but this is a much bigger game than her getting ETFs approved by SEC through her carreer. The dollar and banking is at stake. At the same time, I think the people with power has realized that they have no good weapons to shut down bitcoin. I think they are just manipulating the price / stalling and trying to time everything in their favor. But I could be wrong (as I usually am when wearing my tinfoil hat.)

The US government can if they want to. All they need to do is arrest key people in the Bitcoin community for distributing an illegal alternative to the legal national currency and make a statement saying that the use of bitcoin is illegal. No lawmakers need to get involved, they have all the precedence they need. If they made it a priority to stop the use of bitcoin internationally they would make it part of their foreign policy and you would see one country after another fall in line. And Norway would be that annoying kid that does it very quickly and then starts pestering the other countries to do it too.

Ha ha, you're spot on in your last sentence!    But bitcoin is not a US thing. Gavin Anderson is expendable. The bitcoin honeybadger doesn't care. 

[empowering]

Is that a fact?  Entities that have invested in bitcoin (Fortress, Overstock, DigitalBTC, Tim Draper, The Bitcoin Foundation) seem to have regretted it, and did not want to repeat the experience.  They could have bought shares of BIT from SecondMarket, but they didn't.  They could have bought raw bitcoins (brokers would be happy to assemble large lots for them), but they didn't.  (Risk is not a concern for large investors, they can hire expertise and guard their coins as safely as COIN would do.)

Wall Street obviously does not see bitcoin as being worth more than 220 $/BTC right now...  

Is that a fact?

What are you basing this assumed regret from?  (seemed to have regretted it)

Wait a minute... do you deduce their supposed regret from the fact they did not immediately buy all of the rest of the supply of coins available? hmmmmm.... so how come a single entity has not bought up all of the gold in the world? or the oil?


..........on a separate note do you suppose that "wall street" does not see oil being worth more than its current very low valuation ? that is odd, because wall street thought it was worth almost double this price only last year.. has oil become half as useful, or half as sought after? has it really lost half of its "value" , is there a replacement synthetic on the market to replace the fossil fuel?  or could it be that something else is having an effect on price?

Same with gold, how come it is worth more this year than last, according to wall street? has gold become more useful this year than last? or could it be that something else is happening?

Take away: the market is NOT always rational (or truthful)










  

[empowering]

[...]
..........on a separate note do you suppose that "wall street" does not see oil being worth more than its current very low valuation ? that is odd, because wall street thought it was worth almost double this price only last year.. has oil become half as useful, or half as sought after? has it really lost half of its "value" , is there a replacement synthetic on the market to replace the fossil fuel?  or could it be that something else is having an effect on price?
[...]

At the risk of stating the obvious: Oil has lost half of its value because supply & demand. There supply/demand equilibrium is reflected in the current price.
Hope this helps

meh...  it is not a  "classic" supply and demand issue that has caused the drop in price.. has demand fallen by half? has availability or reserves increased by half? No, there is a supply and demand dynamic at play, but it is not the cause , or rather the cause is not a lack of demand, or a new excess of oil, rather it has got to do with our saudi cousins flooding the market , yes increasing supply, but this is not a "supply and demand" issue, rather a political one. So yes there IS something else going on other than "what wall street thinks oil is worth" at the risk of sounding obvious.

Hope that helps  

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Huobi wants to break down.

[Cconvert2G36]

A significant percentage of the oil/gold/alpaca? market is speculative, based on global conditions and psychological perception. Obviously some of this by participants that will never utilize the underlying asset.

Almost sounds familiar. Aside from the fact that BTC is not generally consumed at the end of the chain. Aside from private key loss I suppose.

"Trolfi" has it right when he says that funds with high risk profile have already had an opportunity to accumulate. They have, to the tune of tens of millions of $.

The only thing GBTC/(or COIN in a very lucky 12 months) could change will be to open the door to the segment of people with a brokerage account that have scoffed or balked at any other method. Could be the difficulties of storage, taxes... in general having someone else to blame? They also see wacky chart with a spike and a relentless downtrend, hard to call the outcome of all this.

I've had 5 posts deleted in the culling, all enough off-topic and without relevant content to warrant it.