Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hdbuck]

Bitcoin is trading oddly at the moment. Highly volatile in a narrow range.

We may be shedding last few bears and profit takers before the next move.

BTC-e doesn't want to bash through $270. But it keeps trying only to be taken back down to $263. And then it slowly repeats.

My theory:

Bitcoin is intentionally being suppressed, but in a unique way.  The whales are busy pumping the litecoin market.  Bitcoins are being sold to the whales in exchange for litecoins, so that noobs can play the litecoin rally.  The whales are holding the bitcoin price fairly steady to make it seem unappealing and boring.  The whales are also attacking the Bitcoin network with spam to continue to delay things.

Once that is done and LTC maxes out, the whales will then take off the parking brake and Bitcoin will start to rally.  The whales will mass dump their remaining litecoin for bitcoin.  All the noobs will then rush in from LTC to BTC en masse, forcing the rally even higher.  The world will then start reading about bitcoin in the media and join in the Bitcoin party.

When that happens, Katy bar the door.

Agree. Litecoin works as the perfect overflow valve.

I think Litecoin works for a little more than an overflow valve, but what Torque posted above is an interesting theory.

simple, from its previous ATH, ltc lost 98% (from $50 to $1) whilst btc is at -77% now. ((1200-270)/1200)

at $7, ltc is now at -85% so we may continue the surge to catch up with btc at around $12.
by then all the capital should flow back to btc to "secure" earnings.

First, if you are going to use litecoin low of $1 (lowest I saw was $1.40) then Bitcoin hit a low around $165 so more like -86% for Bitcoin at its lowest.  Second, its more about the LTC/BTC rate (low of .0059 now at .02692) then a $USD price argument.  Then again i'm not sure what you were getting at with your post.

Litecoin to me has value with Bitcoins success regardless.

ah yea im using large numbers here. jsut to get a quick estimation.

but you can put it the other way around:

comparing ATHs: $50/ltc vs $1200/btc => 50/1200=4,16%
comapring now: $7/ltc vs $270/btc => 7/270=2,6%

hence ltc is still "underpriced" because at the most bullish scenario it reached 4,16% of btc's value.

but thats just my 2cents

[wlefever]

I think Litecoin works for a little more than an overflow valve, but what Torque posted above is an interesting theory.

simple, from its previous ATH, ltc lost 98% (from $50 to $1) whilst btc is at -77% now. ((1200-270)/1200)

at $7, ltc is now at -85% so we may continue the surge to catch up with btc at around $12.
by then all the capital should flow back to btc to "secure" earnings.

First, if you are going to use litecoin low of $1 (lowest I saw was $1.40) then Bitcoin hit a low around $165 so more like -86% for Bitcoin at its lowest.  Second, its more about the LTC/BTC rate (low of .0059 now at .02692) then a $USD price argument.  Then again i'm not sure what you were getting at with your post.

Litecoin to me has value with Bitcoins success regardless.

ah yea im using large numbers here. jsut to get a quick estimation.

but you can put it the other way around:

comparing ATHs: $50/ltc vs $1200/btc => 50/1200=4,16%
comapring now: $7/ltc vs $270/btc => 7/270=2,6%

hence ltc is still "underpriced" because at the most bullish scenario it reached 4,16% of btc's value.

I'm sorry i had to reread your post.  Yes litecoin looks underpriced at this stage, i agree!

[Torque]

Bitcoin is trading oddly at the moment. Highly volatile in a narrow range.

We may be shedding last few bears and profit takers before the next move.

BTC-e doesn't want to bash through $270. But it keeps trying only to be taken back down to $263. And then it slowly repeats.

My theory:

Bitcoin is intentionally being suppressed, but in a unique way.  The whales are busy pumping the litecoin market.  Bitcoins are being sold to the whales in exchange for litecoins, so that noobs can play the litecoin rally.  The whales are holding the bitcoin price fairly steady to make it seem unappealing and boring.  The whales are also attacking the Bitcoin network with spam to continue to delay things.

Once that is done and LTC maxes out, the whales will then take off the parking brake and Bitcoin will start to rally.  The whales will mass dump their remaining litecoin for bitcoin.  All the noobs will then rush in from LTC to BTC en masse, forcing the rally even higher.  The world will then start reading about bitcoin in the media and join in the Bitcoin party.

When that happens, Katy bar the door.

Agree. Litecoin works as the perfect overflow valve.

I think Litecoin works for a little more than an overflow valve, but what Torque posted above is an interesting theory.

simple, from its previous ATH, ltc lost 98% (from $50 to $1) whilst btc is at -77% now. ((1200-270)/1200)

at $7, ltc is now at -85% so we may continue the surge to catch up with btc at around $12.
by then all the capital should flow back to btc to "secure" earnings.

First, if you are going to use litecoin low of $1 (lowest I saw was $1.40) then Bitcoin hit a low around $165 so more like -86% for Bitcoin at its lowest.  Second, its more about the LTC/BTC rate (low of .0059 now at .02692) then a $USD price argument.  Then again i'm not sure what you were getting at with your post.

Litecoin to me has value with Bitcoins success regardless.

ah yea im using large numbers here. jsut to get a quick estimation.

but you can put it the other way around:

comparing ATHs: $50/ltc vs $1200/btc => 50/1200=4,16%
comapring now: $7/ltc vs $270/btc => 7/270=2,6%

hence ltc is still "underpriced" because at the most bullish scenario it reached 4,16% of btc's value.

but thats just my 2cents

I may agree that LTC is still "underpriced" at $7 to those that value it and think it's worth more in the long run.  But I've found that is fairly irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.  I watched LTC rocket from $2 to $48, then slowly fall for a year from $48 to $1.20.  All the while, the Litecoin camp was screaming that it was "undervalued" and "underpriced" at such and such prices... all the way down to $1.20 and finally stabilizing there.  So it really doesn't matter what the supporters think it should be, it only matters what the market supports.

Same goes for BTC, all the supporters were screaming that bitcoin was "undervalued" at ~$700, then $500, then $400, then $300.  But the market said No, it's market supported value was much much lower.

When the Litecoin rally deflates again, and it probably will, hopefully LTC will land somewhere higher than where it took off ($1.70).  But when the smoke clears and people are saying it's dead again, I don't give it much higher than maybe double that.

[wlefever]

Mr. Market is always right no matter what we think 

[Alley]

24hr ltc volume almost higher then btc...

[hdbuck]

Mr. Market is always right no matter what we think  

[hd060053]

Litecoin is back to #2.

http://coinmarketcap.com/

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[inca]

Litecoin is back to #2.

http://coinmarketcap.com/

Now that is some great market manipulation

[Xiaoxiao]

When did the hardfork occur?  Things have been so slow in terms of transfers it's ridiculous.

[soullyG]

When did the hardfork occur?  Things have been so slow in terms of transfers it's ridiculous.

Eh?

[Torque]

When did the hardfork occur?  Things have been so slow in terms of transfers it's ridiculous.

Eh?

All this crap about slow bitcoin transfers is complete FUD.  I made several large and small transfers this past week between multiple local wallets and web wallets, and they all were fully confirmed within 10 mins or less.

[aztecminer]

When did the hardfork occur?  Things have been so slow in terms of transfers it's ridiculous.

i went to do a xfer and found out i had to upgrade my bitcoin-qt.. woot. that went fast but i had to upgrade my cold storage too and that says will take three hours to load blocks which really means it will take all day... double woot! if only i could buy bitcoins instantly would be nice .

[soullyG]

When did the hardfork occur?  Things have been so slow in terms of transfers it's ridiculous.

Eh?

All this crap about slow bitcoin transfers is complete FUD.  I made several large and small transfers this past week between multiple local wallets and web wallets, and they all were fully confirmed within 10 mins or less.

Agreed. I get the sense that it's being blown out of proportion by people looking to spread FUD about Bitcoin, the core devs, and what they are working on. Sure, there should be more room in blocks for free/low cost transactions, but it's not exactly an issue at the moment. Just because someone is paying a shit ton of XBT to spam the network (and not really getting anywhere with it..) doesn't mean we need to force a rushed hard fork!

[aztecminer]

hey everybody.. the economy is doing great this morning. we should expect a massive dump anytime now. the chinese stopped panicing over their stock market last night which means they should start dumping bitcoins ... this gives everyone a head start to dump their coins now so can buy back cheaper. i'm with you guys. i'm going to buy cheaper bitcoins with you all.. let the dumping start.

[EFS]

When did the hardfork occur?  Things have been so slow in terms of transfers it's ridiculous.

Eh?

All this crap about slow bitcoin transfers is complete FUD.  I made several large and small transfers this past week between multiple local wallets and web wallets, and they all were fully confirmed within 10 mins or less.

Nope. I'm waiting for more than 24 hours to get a confirmation for my transaction. That's a lot more than tolerable level.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still futzing along sideways in the $270 range.

My guess is that it will continue here for the weekend before pushing past $280.

Slow and steady may be boring but it's good for Bitcoin.

[JimboToronto]

When did the hardfork occur?  Things have been so slow in terms of transfers it's ridiculous.

Eh?

All this crap about slow bitcoin transfers is complete FUD.  I made several large and small transfers this past week between multiple local wallets and web wallets, and they all were fully confirmed within 10 mins or less.

Nope. I'm waiting for more than 24 hours to get a confirmation for my transaction. That's a lot more than tolerable level.

Did you include a fee?

[phoenix1]

When did the hardfork occur?  Things have been so slow in terms of transfers it's ridiculous.

Eh?

All this crap about slow bitcoin transfers is complete FUD.  I made several large and small transfers this past week between multiple local wallets and web wallets, and they all were fully confirmed within 10 mins or less.

Agreed. I get the sense that it's being blown out of proportion by people looking to spread FUD about Bitcoin, the core devs, and what they are working on. Sure, there should be more room in blocks for free/low cost transactions, but it's not exactly an issue at the moment. Just because someone is paying a shit ton of XBT to spam the network (and not really getting anywhere with it..) doesn't mean we need to force a rushed hard fork!

Actually they are not paying a shit ton ... the spam is being sent with minimal fees, and as it is not being processed (because it can't because of block size) it is wiped from Mempool after 24hrs ... rinse, repeat ...
Only by processing the transactions will it cost the spammers anything.
This is my understanding of the situation anyway, from following Cypher's thread.

Without a doubt tho, IMO, it has something to do with the block size debate and is not an actual attack on BTC itself.
Somebody is trying to prove a point. At the moment they are proving that BTC can function fine with more tx's flowing thru the network, so bandwidth is not an argument

If you want a transaction processed, all you have to do is add at least the normal fee of .0001 and it should go thru fine.

https://tradeblock.com/blockchain

From here you can see that there are 90k spam tx in Mempool backlog, and total fees of 4.5 BTC, giving an average fee of 0.00005. Given that genuine tx's will be being sent with minimum .0001, and many with more than that, the fees on the spam are tiny, hence the backlog should only affect anyone who wants a fee-free tx. Boo-hoo ...

Personally I think it's actually showing how robust the system is.

EDIT 2: I am not sure which the spammer is fighting for as he is proving that the nodes are not collapsing with the extra tx in the Mempool, the block size being the limiting factor in clearing it. Meanwhile a Fee-market is developing, whereby anyone paying a bit more is still guaranteed a fast transaction. If anything, its just proving how versatile and adaptable BTC is.

EDIT : Oops ... wrong link ... I will leave this one here tho as its a funny story !!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/weirdnewsvideo/11728260/Naked-man-steals-police-car.html

[aztecminer]

hey everybody.. the economy is doing great this morning. we should expect a massive dump anytime now. the chinese stopped panicing over their stock market last night which means they should start dumping bitcoins ... this gives everyone a head start to dump their coins now so can buy back cheaper. i'm with you guys. i'm going to buy cheaper bitcoins with you all.. let the dumping start.

my wallet finished building databases! woot! .. u know what guys, i just realized something.. the economy is on the brink of disaster. the greeks have "a deal they cannot refuse" .. be our slave or go bankrupt . seems reasonable .