Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fatman3001]

[iCEBREAKER]

We all saw the price drop like a stone when Galvin announced his intention to make the civil war go hot.
We even trolled Frap.doc about it:  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=68655.msg12151832#msg12151832

You linked to a message of yours from 2015-08-15, but there was no big drop on that date.  There was just another small drop like there had been almost every day since the $296 peak on 2015-07-28.

The big drop was on 2015-08-18, and -- again -- it only brought the price to ~$230, where it was before the "Greek crisis" bubble.  The most obvious and convincing explanation is that, with the resolution of the Greek crisis, people finally realized that the Greek would NOT be buying billions of bitcoins. 

Of course the Blockstream bootlickers blamed that drop on the XT schism.  Since the schism had been developing for months, that was easy -- pick any random event in that story, and blame the drop on that event.

By the way, all this fuss abut the blocksize limit was ENTIRELY the fault of Blockstream and their idiotic plans for the "fee market".  If they had any sense, they would have implemented the raise in 2014 to be activated in 2016, with a two-line patch, as Satoshi proposed; and reminded everybody, a month before the activation, that very old versions of the software would stop working, so people had better upgrade or add the same patch to their software.  Then the hard fork would be a non-event and NOTHING bad would happen from it.

Blockstream lacks the ability to implement "the raise in 2014 to be activated in 2016, with a two-line patch."

Only the consensus of the socioeconomic majority has that power.

The big drop, which began Aug 15, was obviously caused by the Gavinista offensive escalation on that date.

FUD reached a peak on that day, when Satoshi Himself suddenly appeared and declared Galvin and Hearn's putsch attempt a "very disappointing" development.

Those two unprecedented posts were obviously not merely "any random event in that story."

Yes, the schism had been developing for months.  And on Aug 15, with the release of XT 0.11A (and the lulzy Gavinista Manifesto) it came to a head.

Of course you are trolling.  Nobody could be so stupid as to (seriously, no kidding) say the Aug 15 release of XT 0.11A, or Satoshi's subsequent domination post, was "any random event in that story."

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

As I explain in the linked post, there is no technical difference.  As the two events are usually defined, in both cases after the fork there are two versions of the rules, "permissive" and "restrictive"; and what happens next depends only on which version has the majority of the hashpower (which of course may change after the fork, and in principle could even go back and forth several times). 

Of course there is a technical difference. The definition of the difference is purely technical.

The only difference is whether the rules before the fork were "permissive" or "restrictive"; but that difference has no effect on what happens after the fork.  Only the relative amount of hashpower is relevant.

And there is a major difference in what you are calling "safe". In the case of a soft fork, the miner risks mainly itself by not adopting the majority rule. In the case of a hard fork, the whole consensus on the valid chain can be at risk and there can be long chain reorgs. This doesn't happen in soft forks and this is a MAJOR difference.

But (as explained in that linked post) which of these two possibilities happens does not depend on whether the fork was soft or hard, but only on whether the majority of the hashpower after the fork follows the "restrictive" or "permissive" ruleset. 

If the majority uses the "restrictive" ruleset, there is one "restrictive" chain with recurrent "permissive" side branches that get orphaned sooner or later.   This can happen even in a hard fork with blockchain voting, if the miners lied in their votes, or changed their minds afterwards.

If the majority uses the "permissive" ruleset, there are two persistent branches; the minority "restrictive" one grows more slowly at first, but it is still followed by any "restrictive" full clients.  This can happen in a soft fork with blockchain voting too, if the miners lied in their votes, or changed their minds afterwards.

If 100% of the miners use the same ruleset, of course there will be only one branch. By making changes be conditional on blockchain voting, with a large activation threshold, it is hoped that there will be such a large imbalance after the fork that the minority miners will prompty switch too, preferably before the fork.

However, in any case, clients who are running the minority version after the fork will be screwed or confused in various ways. If the split is not 0-100, even some clients who are runnng the majority version may be temporarily confused by the minority branches.   

A rule change is really safe only if all miners and all clients upgrade to the same version before the change is activated. 

[Cconvert2G36]

-snip-
FUD reached a peak on that day, when Satoshi Himself suddenly appeared and declared Galvin and Hearn's putsch attempt a "very disappointing" development.
-snip-

"Monero" : { Untraceable - Anonymous - Fungible - Trustless - Adaptive Blocksize - 100% PoW & FOSS - No ASIC or Premine - Wallets - Podcats - Roadmap - XMR.to }

A crippled Bitcoin surely would be advantageous to Monero? I seem to remember your compatriot AmericanPegasus asking something similar.

In any event, keep up His work in keeping the free shit army (and their dangerous opinions) out of mah P2P electronic cash neckbeard reserve system. It's mine (and yours) to HAVE.

[Fatov]

The price was up before he and his friends wanted. They invented the debate and dump thousands of bitoin to lower the price

[Cconvert2G36]

The price was up before he and his friends wanted. They invented the debate and dump thousands of bitoin to lower the price

Feeling left out? Fine...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

The big drop, which began Aug 15,

What chart are you using? As I said, on Bitstamp I see only a small $5 drop on that date, like those that happened almost every day in the preceding 2 weeks.  There was another $5 drop the next day (Sunday), and no drop on the 17th (Monday).  The big drop was on Aug 18.

was obviously caused by the Gavinista offensive escalation on that date.

How many bitcoin traders took note of that post?  

It seems that we have very different ideas about who are the "bictoin comunity" and how they think.  Regular readers of the bitcoin forums seem to think that all bitcoiners and traders are also regular readers like them, well-aware of issues and developments.  But I would be surprised if, even today, there are more than 10'000 bitcoiners who are aware of the "block size war" and have a reasonable idea of what it means.  I even bet that most bitcoiners could not tell Gavin from Luke or Peter in a police line-up.

Among those bitcoiners who do have minimal understanding of the war, I bet that many think that it is an minor technical question that will be satisfactorily resolved, like all previous issues were, and therefore it is not something that they have to understand further.

FUD reached a peak on that day, when Satoshi Himself suddenly appeared and declared Galvin and Hearn's putsch attempt a "very disappointing" development.

FUD indeed...  That obviously fake email was a low point in certain party's struggle for absolute power over Bitcoin...

[JayJuanGee]

wall street money pouring in.

Yup, currently 3.2 thousand dollars bids at Gemini, this looks sooo bullish...
The bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 20$, might be an insight into the future of bitcoin...

And those are probably just nerds from this forum "Taking Part in History!!!".

How do we link to Gemini's exchange (trading and books) information?  Do we need to create an account?  

Only institutional representatives can create an account, no?

[Fatman3001]

wall street money pouring in.

Yup, currently 3.2 thousand dollars bids at Gemini, this looks sooo bullish...
The bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 20$, might be an insight into the future of bitcoin...

And those are probably just nerds from this forum "Taking Part in History!!!".

How do we link to Gemini's exchange (trading and books) information?  Do we need to create an account?  

Only institutional representatives can create an account, no?

I use this: https://cryptowat.ch/gemini/btcusd/5min

I think you anyone can open an account as long as they live in one of the US states currently supported.

[luigi1111]

wall street money pouring in.

Yup, currently 3.2 thousand dollars bids at Gemini, this looks sooo bullish...
The bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 20$, might be an insight into the future of bitcoin...

And those are probably just nerds from this forum "Taking Part in History!!!".

How do we link to Gemini's exchange (trading and books) information?  Do we need to create an account?  

Only institutional representatives can create an account, no?

I use this: https://cryptowat.ch/gemini/btcusd/5min

I think you anyone can open an account as long as they live in one of the US states currently supported.

AFAIK anyone can open an account; you just can't do fun things like fund and trade unless they're in your state.

In other news, I created an account yesterday, got the "we are not operational in your state yet". Then this morning, I received an email saying "we're operational in your state", but after logging in, I'm still getting "we are not operational in your state yet". I'm so confused. 

[Meuh6879]

EURO

[Ayle56]

wall street money pouring in.

Yup, currently 3.2 thousand dollars bids at Gemini, this looks sooo bullish...
The bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 20$, might be an insight into the future of bitcoin...

And those are probably just nerds from this forum "Taking Part in History!!!".

How do we link to Gemini's exchange (trading and books) information?  Do we need to create an account?  

Only institutional representatives can create an account, no?

You can see it here, although trading has been very low volume since it started. I think there's only been about 45 Bitcoins changed hands since it opened.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/gemini/USD

Most of the trades are for less than one Bitcoin. The last 3 hours of trades are below.

[hdbuck]

wall street money pouring in.

Yup, currently 3.2 thousand dollars bids at Gemini, this looks sooo bullish...
The bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 20$, might be an insight into the future of bitcoin...

And those are probably just nerds from this forum "Taking Part in History!!!".

How do we link to Gemini's exchange (trading and books) information?  Do we need to create an account?  

Only institutional representatives can create an account, no?

You can see it here, although trading has been very low volume since it started. I think there's only been about 45 Bitcoins changed hands since it opened.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/gemini/USD

Most of the trades are for less than one Bitcoin. The last 3 hours of trades are below.

would be so funny tho if the userbase does not expand as expected, because well, NYC KYC regulation et al.

hope the twins saved some coins to fake some volume.

[JorgeStolfi]

A rule change is really safe only if all miners and all clients upgrade to the same version before the change is activated.  

bitcoin is not a democracy. ergo, nobody "enforces" anyone.

Self-interest is supposed to convince all clients who care about their coins upgrade -- if the majority of the miners have decided to implement the change in the protocol, if clients are told that there will be a change, and if they are clearly warned that their software will stop working on date X, unless and until they upgrade.   

[muyuu]

A rule change is really safe only if all miners and all clients upgrade to the same version before the change is activated.  

bitcoin is not a democracy. ergo, nobody "enforces" anyone.

Self-interest is supposed to convince all clients who care about their coins upgrade -- if the majority of the miners have decided to implement the change in the protocol, if clients are told that there will be a change, and if they are clearly warned that their software will stop working on date X, unless and until they upgrade.  

Which makes soft forks inherently safer than hard forks with respect to immediate forks. In soft forks, non-upgrading is neutral for other miners, loses money to the miner who doesn't upgrade. In hard forks, it depends. A hard fork without sufficient coordination is undistinguishable from a hostile fork, who loses depends on the outcome of the process. In the soft fork, upgrading is completely safe for the individual miner with respect to possible chain forks.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

wall street money pouring in.

Yup, currently 3.2 thousand dollars bids at Gemini, this looks sooo bullish...
The bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 20$, might be an insight into the future of bitcoin...

And those are probably just nerds from this forum "Taking Part in History!!!".

How do we link to Gemini's exchange (trading and books) information?  Do we need to create an account?  

Only institutional representatives can create an account, no?

I use this: https://cryptowat.ch/gemini/btcusd/5min

I think you anyone can open an account as long as they live in one of the US states currently supported.

Thanks for the link.    That was the main information that I was looking for.

 I did see that I had misread the main Gemini sign in page, and it does appear to allow individuals to create an account.   

I did begin the create an account process, and it too me a little while to confirm the email and phone number.   I skipped the sections to confirm my identity and link a bank account (which I can do later if I want).

By the way, I see that Gemini accounts have officially traded a total of 21 BTC in the past 12 hours on the exchange, since it opened its doors.....

I cannot determine if there is any fee for transferring funds; however, it appears that the trading fee is .25%, which seems pretty reasonable, no?

[JayJuanGee]

wall street money pouring in.

Yup, currently 3.2 thousand dollars bids at Gemini, this looks sooo bullish...
The bid sum / ask sum ratio is about 20$, might be an insight into the future of bitcoin...

And those are probably just nerds from this forum "Taking Part in History!!!".

How do we link to Gemini's exchange (trading and books) information?  Do we need to create an account?  

Only institutional representatives can create an account, no?

You can see it here, although trading has been very low volume since it started. I think there's only been about 45 Bitcoins changed hands since it opened.

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/gemini/USD

Most of the trades are for less than one Bitcoin. The last 3 hours of trades are below.

would be so funny tho if the userbase does not expand as expected, because well, NYC KYC regulation et al.

hope the twins saved some coins to fake some volume.

You do NOT need any coins to fake volume, but I suppose it would be safer to have some actual coins for faking that volume.