Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[Fakhoury]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

[adamstgBit]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

[Peter R]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

[Wekkel]

I think the next two months will be favourable to the price. Weekly Stochastics @BitcoinWisdom has turned up from the bottom.

[Fakhoury]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

I'm like you, I don't think Bitcoin will die, on the contrary, it will go mainstream in 3-5 years (perma-bull).

But I see a lot of people talking about $50-$100 within 10-12 years, what you think ?

[SmoothCurves]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD

[BldSwtTrs]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD

Three halving from now.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

So in 10 years from now, you expect BTC to reach only $10,000, Peter ?

I actually think it will be significantly higher but I'm embarrassed to write what I really think.

However, like everyone else, I don't have any special insight that makes my guess more right than the next guy's.  I could be totally wrong and most certainly am at least partially wrong.  I think good advice is to imagine losing all the money you have in bitcoin: if that would cause you some pain, well, that's OK; if that would cause you to lose your home, wife or business, then you're probably investing too much.  

You might be embarrassed but i'm not. 10 years from would be 2025 (two halving from now). I expect the price to be between 300,000 - 1.2M USD

Three halving from now.

The bulltrolling is strong today. We must be headed back down.

Just kidding.

No but seriously.

[JayJuanGee]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

Thank you for providing the a more specific response to substantiate your current position. 

[BitofaN1]

Bearstamp earning its mettle.I remember last week being even below Btc-e for a while.

[JayJuanGee]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

hahahaha   


what's the time frame on that?

[Fakhoury]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

hahahaha   


what's the time frame on that?

2 years since June 2015.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[adamstgBit]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

hahahaha   


what's the time frame on that?

2 years since June 2015.

1300 by this time next year and 32,000 less than a year later.

[Fakhoury]

0% x 0$ + 100% X 32,000 = 32,000 

hahahaha   


what's the time frame on that?

2 years since June 2015.

1300 by this time next year and 32,000 less than a year later.

I agree with the $1,300 as the halving rally will start after and not before thr halving takes place.

[Patel]

240 

[ChartBuddy]

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[ChartBuddy]

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