Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

Seems the price still can't breach & stay above 240 then, disappointing. I feel the price is at a bit of a croassroads now, does it nose dive to 220 & maybe less or 260 or above. I wouldn't even like to try & guess.

Anybody got a hunch?

sub 200$ coins coming soon!

everyone send lots of money and wait for 199.9$

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Peter R]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

Didn't know we were still using this forum

Haha well sometimes I check out the ol' Wall Observer for nostalgic reasons.

To the other readers here: I believe many of the older posters no longer feel welcome at BitcoinTalk after the Forum Administration locked the "Gold Collapsing. Bitcoin UP" thread.

If readers are wondering where cypherdoc, solex, sickpig, awemany, theZerg, Justus Ranvier, Inca, molecular, AdrianX, Zanglebert Bingledack, chmod755, Erdogan, Ivanhow, Melbustus, lunarboy, humanitee, Zarathustra, rocks and others are, well please come over and say hi:

https://bitco.in/forum

[hdbuck]

Guys i have a feeling that the next bubble will be fucking nuclear...don't know when it will come, doubt it will be now, but when the world is ready, holy fucking shit  

exactly.
2 years of constantly building more and bigger fiat channels towards bitcoin will - in case of another run-up - have a huge impact. next one will reach 5 - 10k    

My bet (why not be bullish, right?):

We slowly grow over the remainder of 2015 and early 2016 back to the $500 - $750 range. Between the spring and fall of 2016, we have a quadfecta of news that is positive for price: a 1MB+ block is included in the Blockchain, the halving is successful, the Winklevoss ETF launches, and there is a major currency crisis somewhere.

This precipitates the largest growth spurt in the history of Bitcoin. The growth spurt takes place in three bubble-phases over late 2016 and 2017 (and causes many people to bail prematurely), reaching a height of $40,000 before 2018 (and then crashing back below $10,000).

By the way, when you say bet, what kinds of odds are you putting on your scenario?  

I'll answer that in a roundabout way: if Bitcoin doesn't die in the next ten years, then I'm 98% certain we will have another hyperbolic run-up within that same time frame.  I think the probability of Bitcoin dying in the next ten years is ~25% (yes, I'm an uberbull).  So I guess I think the chance of another bubble (not necessarily as big or as soon as the one I described) is about 75%.  

Let's say my guess is that there's a 25% of 1 BTC being worth $0 in ten years and a 75% chance of it being worth $10,000.

Expectation value of 1 BTC ten years from now: 25% x $0  + 75% x $10,000 = $7,500
Net present value of one Bitcoin today (assuming 6% cost of capital) = $4,187

So according to my interpretation of the probabilities, the price of a bitcoin is highly undervalued right now!  

Didn't know we were still using this forum

Haha well sometimes I check out the ol' Wall Observer for nostalgic reasons.

To the other readers here: I believe many of the older posters no longer feel welcome at BitcoinTalk after the Forum Administration locked the "Gold Collapsing. Bitcoin UP" thread.

If readers are wondering where cypherdoc, solex, sickpig, awemany, theZerg, Justus Ranvier, Inca, molecular, AdrianX, Zanglebert Bingledack, chmod755, Erdogan, Ivanhow, Melbustus, lunarboy, humanitee, Zarathustra, rocks and others are, well please come over and say hi:

https://bitco.in/forum

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[Peter R]

I just learned about this cool idea where anyone can donate to a "pot" and then a fraction of the pot gets paid out (by a bot) to the coinbase address of each BIP101 block found.  As the pot gets bigger, miners can see how much more they could be earning per block by signalling support for BIP101.

https://cryptoplay.net/vote/

The site is managed by /u/NxtChg from reddit.  We've been discussing potential improvements with him here.

I think this is a great idea and it would be good to get more publicity for this effort.  If the pot got to over 10 BTC, then it would pay out 1 BTC per BIP101 block; a 1 BTC advantage per block would certainly get me thinking about signalling support for BIP101 if I were an indifferent miner. 

[hdbuck]

I just learned about this cool idea where anyone can donate to a "pot" and then a fraction of the pot gets paid out (by a bot) to the coinbase address of each BIP101 block found.  As the pot gets bigger, miners can see how much more they could be earning per block by signalling support for BIP101.

https://cryptoplay.net/vote/

The site is managed by /u/NxtChg from reddit.  We've been discussing potential improvements with him here.

I think this is a great idea and it would be good to get more publicity for this effort.  If the pot got to over 10 BTC, then it would pay out 1 BTC per BIP101 block; a 1 BTC advantage per block would certainly get me thinking about signalling support for BIP101 if I were an indifferent miner.  

lol

free money for the scammers, and for the scam that BIP101/XT/whateverbsthatcomeoutofyouandyourgavinistasjerks is..





https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=203845

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=929688.80


mymy you restless shill, even shamelessly pimping your scammer of a colleague here

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Peter R]

…questions site owner's trustworthiness...

Thank you for bringing this to my attention.  Although the trust system here at BitcoinTalk is notoriously abused, this does raise some questions. https://www.reddit.com/r/bitcoinxt/comments/3mql9b/next_p2pool_xt_block/cvidzyz  

[Fatman3001]

Completely off-topic: Anyone else being forced/repeatedly prompted to agree to a bunch of legal crap in order to do a simple google-search?

is this a joke >.>?

Nope, using Bing atm. I know Google is milking us dry for information, but them demanding me to actively accept it is a bit too much. Passive acceptance and living in denial is more my style.

[emelac]

Completely off-topic: Anyone else being forced/repeatedly prompted to agree to a bunch of legal crap in order to do a simple google-search?

is this a joke >.>?

Nope, using Bing atm. I know Google is milking us dry for information, but them demanding me to actively accept it is a bit too much. Passive acceptance and living in denial is more my style.

When searching I get a message asking me to read something every now and then, but ignored it. I have never been forced to agree to any legal crap to do a simple search. I might have been forced to agree to something to continue using my gmail account but I can't remember.

It could depend where you live in the world because Google had legal battles in various jurisdictions worldwide. They might have devised new legal agreements in jurisdictions where they lost,

[nioc]

Completely off-topic: Anyone else being forced/repeatedly prompted to agree to a bunch of legal crap in order to do a simple google-search?

is this a joke >.>?

Nope, using Bing atm. I know Google is milking us dry for information, but them demanding me to actively accept it is a bit too much. Passive acceptance and living in denial is more my style.

I don't know much about it but have you tried https://search.disconnect.me/

[Fatman3001]

Completely off-topic: Anyone else being forced/repeatedly prompted to agree to a bunch of legal crap in order to do a simple google-search?

is this a joke >.>?

Nope, using Bing atm. I know Google is milking us dry for information, but them demanding me to actively accept it is a bit too much. Passive acceptance and living in denial is more my style.

I don't know much about it but have you tried https://search.disconnect.me/

Sweet, thx!

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[tommorisonwebdesign]

Completely off-topic: Anyone else being forced/repeatedly prompted to agree to a bunch of legal crap in order to do a simple google-search?

is this a joke >.>?

Nope, using Bing atm. I know Google is milking us dry for information, but them demanding me to actively accept it is a bit too much. Passive acceptance and living in denial is more my style.

I don't know much about it but have you tried https://search.disconnect.me/

Google is notorious for legal BS. I still use it. It's ingrained into our minds to think Google owns the internet.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[Norway]

That's it. I'm switching from this forum to:

https://bitco.in/forum/

They even have a new Wall Observer thread there.

There is too much shit from the Theymos shills here.

See you on the other side, guys! 

Norway

[DonQuijote]

Completely off-topic: Anyone else being forced/repeatedly prompted to agree to a bunch of legal crap in order to do a simple google-search?

is this a joke >.>?

Nope, using Bing atm. I know Google is milking us dry for information, but them demanding me to actively accept it is a bit too much. Passive acceptance and living in denial is more my style.

I don't know much about it but have you tried https://search.disconnect.me/

Is it better than duckduckgo?

[ChartBuddy]

Coin
Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This thread is so dead when compared to how it used to be. I guess that's a reflection of bitcoin's price movement or lack of. There doesn't seem to be enough media news / price volatility to make this thread half as fun as it used to be.

I miss the bears vs bulls cult we used to have here, rockets, moon landing gifs etc

Even NLC is gone now.