Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rebuilder]

...
Pushing for higher miner fees is barking up the wrong tree. Either we manage with lower fees or the system fails, if you ask me. This will be the case regardless of transaction rate.

Can't we just hardfork to a new, better block reward schedule (print more money)?

What good would that do? The mining subsidy is the single biggest reason miners suck off such a large portion of wealth stored in BTC at the moment. Mining subsidy coupled with bullish price expectations, that is. (An inflation-corrected BTCUSD chart would probably be pretty illuminating...)

[Richy_T]

A segregated witness softfork will be done ASAP (within 3-6 months, probably)

LOL. Double that at least. And in the meantime, we will have the halvening which will slow down block production significantly, exacerbating the problem.

[soullyG]

A segregated witness softfork will be done ASAP (within 3-6 months, probably)

LOL. Double that at least. And in the meantime, we will have the halvening which will slow down block production significantly, exacerbating the problem.

Surely the rate of block production stays the same, the block reward is what gets lowered?

[flagpara]

...
Pushing for higher miner fees is barking up the wrong tree. Either we manage with lower fees or the system fails, if you ask me. This will be the case regardless of transaction rate.

Can't we just hardfork to a new, better block reward schedule (print more money)?

What good would that do? The mining subsidy is the single biggest reason miners suck off such a large portion of wealth stored in BTC at the moment. Mining subsidy coupled with bullish price expectations, that is. (An inflation-corrected BTCUSD chart would probably be pretty illuminating...)

Sorry, was making a[n inappropriate] joke. Many Bitcoin proponents don't realize that BTC base money is being 'printed out of thin air' at a rate of 10%+ per year. Also don't particularly care when made aware of it. So...

I agree. I find it incredible that nobody cares about the fact that btc is literaly produced from nothing at an incredible rate.
This being done mainly by quite huge companies of industrial farming. I'm not sure we're heading towards satoshi dream.

[Richy_T]

hopefully as the block subsidy dwindles, fees *will not* go up proportionally.

Total transaction fees per block=average transaction fee*number of transactions. So you either increase the fee or you increase the number of transactions or your security goes down.

We probably are over-secure right now. But by how much? And if fees increase because the number of transactions can't go up, there is a limit to what people will pay, especially for a service which is seen as having damaged usability (i.e. submit a transaction with a fair fee and still have long confirmation times). So you end up in a situation with low block reward due to halving an low fees due to low number of transactions * perceived value for performing transactions.

So how much would people be willing to pay for a Bitcoin blockchain transaction? Well, there should be some data from the recent stress test where blocks did fill up and there is likely to be some more data coming soon as transactions continue to rise. My guess is 2-10c.

I also suspect that we are over-secured by at least 400% currently. Though that's for the market to decide.

As to the road map? Want to like it but it just seems like more stalling to me. We shall see.

[Richy_T]

Surely the rate of block production stays the same, the block reward is what gets lowered?

Surely you must consider that miners running at the edge of profitability [at the time of Teh Halvening] would be forced to shut down?

This.

The next difficulty adjustment after the halvening is 10 days away at 1 block per 10 minutes. Longer the more the hash-rate drops. Maybe core will get their shit together and add in a difficulty adjustment closer to the halvening though.

[soullyG]

Surely the rate of block production stays the same, the block reward is what gets lowered?

Surely you must consider that miners running at the edge of profitability [at the time of Teh Halvening] would be forced to shut down?

This.

The next difficulty adjustment after the halvening is 10 days away at 1 block per 10 minutes. Longer the more the hash-rate drops. Maybe core will get their shit together and add in a difficulty adjustment closer to the halvening though.

Hmm I see

[rebuilder]

I also suspect that we are over-secured by at least 400% currently. Though that's for the market to decide.

Hopefully by at least that much. 2.5% annual costs would be much more reasonable, but still pretty damn high for store-of-value users. If you're not going to cater to a userbase who sees money transfer as  the most interesting option, it seems like it gets much harder to keep Bitcoin secure and have it be competitive compared to other ways of storing wealth.

The balance of store-of-value (few tx on the blockchain) vs. money transfer (lots of tx on the blockchain) should be decided by the market. Artificially limiting blocksize is making a policy decision to favour store-of-value without knowing what a free market would "prefer"

Edit: This was sloppy writing. Ideally the free market would decide, but probably we have to make policy decisions either way, since there are other considerations for blocksize, mainly resource usage. If tx/sec can be increased without increasing resource usage, that's even better than a blocksize raise, but I'm not convinced of that yet.

[Elwar]

A segregated witness softfork will be done ASAP (within 3-6 months, probably)

LOL. Double that at least. And in the meantime, we will have the halvening which will slow down block production significantly, exacerbating the problem.

Surely the rate of block production stays the same, the block reward is what gets lowered?

Surely you must consider that miners running at the edge of profitability [at the time of Teh Halvening] would be forced to shut down?

This is exactly the skepticism of the halving that I am counting on to continue acquiring cheap coins up to the halving just like how people were worried about such things going up to the last halving.

More time for accumulation.

[gotmilk_]

30 weeks until reward drop!  

[rjclarke2000]

Is halvening even a word?? Do you mean halving?

Is this like hodl and hold?

Am I just being an old grumpy shit?

[Richy_T]

Is halvening even a word?? Do you mean halving?

Is this like hodl and hold?

Am I just being an old grumpy shit?

Yes^4

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Andre#]

My tx sent with "normal" fee from Mycelium was  left untouched by the last two blocks. I guess the future of Bitcoin is here... 

[GreekGeek]

30 weeks until reward drop!  

next 30 weeks are critical    

[JayJuanGee]

Sometimes you are so fucking contradictory that I am not even sure whether you can recognize your own lack of coherence.


You claim to be a libertarian and wanting to allow the free "market" to cause effects within such amorphous powers, then at the same time, you are complaining that the free market is over doing the bitcoin computing power because, in your infinite wisdom, they are too secure and "they" are causing you to have to pay more than is necessary in some amorphous and unsubstantiated claim that you have about having extra costs on yourself and presumably other bitcoin users... and what the fuck does it matter anyhow? even if there happens to develop 10x the computing power (excess capacity) to secure the blockchain, because these various individuals have been making their own internal calculations and they have been deciding to take various risks on the gamble that they are going to profit from such apparently excessive cumulative investment of mining power.  

Who gives a shit?  In the end, if we leave it to such free market and let individuals to decide for themselves if it is worth it to them to keep investing in mining,  it is all going to work itself out, no?, and some balance between price and security will work itself out, no?, without you trying to dictate what you believe is best.  

like you said, you can vote with your feet too, and leave bitcoin, which would surely be nice for you to exercise such option instead of continuing to propound end-of-the world ideas about the bitcoin network supposedly being developed as too secure.

Markets, aren't perfect, but they are better than planned economies.  It's Hyek's economic calculation problem.  Prices convey information. I thought I was paying for blockspace when I was paying for bitcoin, but if I have to pay twice, well, that's a price I'm not yet willing to pay.  I guess we'll find out if anyone else is willing to pay twice but I'd rather watch that from the sidelines.

NOBODY HAS YET SHOWN that they are willing to pay high xaction fees. The market WILL decide.

The issue I have to deal with is to get my cash out of a Honk Kong exchange before the network backlog makes that difficult or impossible. So that means I have to sell one here, buy one there to sell the next one here or I expose myself to exchange rate volatility. I suspect that's possibly a reason why the price hasn't tanked yet.

Artificial scarcity of coins in addition to artificial scarcity of blockspace is just too much scarcity for me, so i'm gonna make myself scarce but I gotta cash out first.

keep a few coins in cold storage and then buy a bunch metals while they are down... that will really leave em pissed if u do that. .. then they might do something spiteful like pump or crash bitcoin some more.

add crash metals to the spiteful reactions list.. if u hold back some on first buy then can buy when they crash down.. that will really piss em off ... although they might try lure u back to bitcoin if u were to do that.

 

yeah... as if anyone gives a flying shit what BjA does with his 50 coins.

 

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

@JJG Be nice, you. It’s Christmas!

But I think that the most likely reason of all
May have been that his heart was two sizes too small.


 

[toy4lov3rs]

Up or down guys. What's the general opinion of my wall observing people.

[TERA]

I knew the future of bitcoin was here when people were still talking about "China "

[MoreFun]

Up or down guys. What's the general opinion of my wall observing people.

We will continue with the current direction and later we will switch it.