Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[cbeast]

Is there any current silk road for regular people, or does a person have to be savvy with technicals?   Or let's just say people in the USA who may want to buy prescription drugs, but not have to pay USA prices... ?

I don't know about silk roads, but there are there are real roads if you live near Canada or Mexico.

[smooth]

<<Sorry for the horkedattribution>>

Not at all. JorgeStolfi was saying that if you settle to the Bitcoin blockchain only 1/10000 of your tx then you might as well not do it at all and use a fiat LN system. I'm saying that at 1/10000 of your tx, the cost of using real Bitcoin (even with, hypothetically, expensive BTC transactions) would be so low there is no reason not to just stay with Bitcoin. I don't think people will want fiat LN.

Doesn't make much sense. While 1/10000 of the transaction represents only 0.01% of the customer's transaction cost, it represents 100% of the tranasaction aggregator's cost - and that is the party tasked with selecting the ultimate settlement network.

And what makes the customer choose that aggregator? LN nodes are permissionless and will compete on the basis of the attributes of their service offering (reliability,etc.). Being collateralized or not is a differentiator that will form the basis of customers' decisions over which network/nodes to use.

Saying that customers will choose uncollateralized providers given the choice is equivalent to saying they don''t want Bitcoin, which may be the case.

[JayJuanGee]

So for anyone still harboring any doubts, here is the actual data ChartBuddy used to generate this widget. Please feel free to point out any errors. I picked one with both empty and full blocks to give an illustration.

Code:

Block    Size     Limit    Perc
  394091   995032  1000000  100%
  394092   929728  1000000   93%
  394093   995189  1000000  100%
  394094   927529  1000000   93%
  394095      210  1000000    0%*
  394096   995123  1000000  100%
  394097   999928  1000000  100%
  394098   949174  1000000   95%
  394099   998803  1000000  100%
  394100    64143  1000000    6%
================================
AVE-NOMT  7854649  9000000   87%
AVE-MT    7854859 10000000   79%

Note that this round included 10 blocks, way more than the targeted 6 and 50% were still full. I probably should have included the times as well as though the last block is only 6% full, it came a scant 44 seconds after the previous block.

Empty blocks marked with a *

Do you know if the Blockchain.info charts are possibly averaging fullness of blocks over 24 hours, and that may be the reason that they are showing a bit lower numbers for their block fullness as compared with chart buddy? 


Even though I am not really sure about the total impact of all of these numbers, except maybe getting a sense of longer confirmation times, I think that I agree with you that hourly averaging may be a better depiction of block fullness as compared with block averaging of fullness over 24 hours, if that happens to be the case with the blockchain.info charts? 

[brg444]

I'd advise trader here to secure their long position.

We have consensus.

[JayJuanGee]

Is there any current silk road for regular people, or does a person have to be savvy with technicals?   Or let's just say people in the USA who may want to buy prescription drugs, but not have to pay USA prices... ?

I don't know about silk roads, but there are there are real roads if you live near Canada or Mexico.

Hahaahahahaha


 you are saying cross over the border, and do it that way? 

I can't just sit back on my skinny fat ass and order via internet?

[Richy_T]

Even though I am not really sure about the total impact of all of these numbers, except maybe getting a sense of longer confirmation times, I think that I agree with you that hourly averaging may be a better depiction of block fullness as compared with block averaging of fullness over 24 hours, if that happens to be the case with the blockchain.info charts?  

Which chart are you looking at? I don't see one which relates directly but I may be looking in the wrong place

(apology from earlier accepted BTW)

Edit: NVM, found it. That looks like daily average. Might be instructive to plot it as a distribution.

[JayJuanGee]

I'd advise trader here to secure their long position.

We have consensus.

When did this royal "we" come to this result?

Should I act quickly, or do I have a few days of down before the up comes?

[jbreher]

Conversely 1:10000 is so close to 0:10000 that you might as well just leave it on the Bitcoin blockchain. The benefit of not doing so would be negligible.

No. Makes no sense whatsoever.

True, the choice of settlement platform is leveraged 10,000:1 in this scenario for the transacting party. As such, it probably does not much matter to the transaction party whether the underlying settlement platform is Bitcoin or a vastly cheaper alt.

However, to the payment provider -- the party who actually selects the underlying settlement platform -- that cost represents the bulk of the Cost Of Production. If any business can reduce their cost of production by a significant portion, you can be damned sure they are going to take that option.

The benefit to the party actually bearing the cost is huuuuuge.

Edit: Sorry. Unintended duplicate.

[JayJuanGee]

Even though I am not really sure about the total impact of all of these numbers, except maybe getting a sense of longer confirmation times, I think that I agree with you that hourly averaging may be a better depiction of block fullness as compared with block averaging of fullness over 24 hours, if that happens to be the case with the blockchain.info charts?  

Which chart are you looking at? I don't see one which relates directly but I may be looking in the wrong place

(apology from earlier accepted BTW)

Edit: NVM, found it. That looks like daily average. Might be instructive to plot it as a distribution.

Even though I had posted the link several times before, just to be more clear for you and for any others who may be interested in the topic, I have been referring to this chart.

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size



And, today does seem to be up in that chart, as well....

[peonminer]

Crypto is done!!!

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[Richy_T]

Hum, so... 144*7=1008 or approx one week of block size data



Not really sure what to make of that. About 50 (around 5%) empty blocks, 220 (around 20%) full blocks and a fairly boring distribution over the rest of the sizes with some rather odd spikes at 25%, 75%, 93% and 95%. Of these, the 75% has an obvious explanation. I wonder if the others are pool specific.

[smooth]

Conversely 1:10000 is so close to 0:10000 that you might as well just leave it on the Bitcoin blockchain. The benefit of not doing so would be negligible.

No. Makes no sense whatsoever.

True, the choice of settlement platform is leveraged 10,000:1 in this scenario for the transacting party. As such, it probably does not much matter to the transaction party whether the underlying settlement platform is Bitcoin or a vastly cheaper alt.

It certainly does matter to the customer. Customers will chose a BTC LN over an alt LN for the same reasons they (usually) choose BTC over alts. Those are well known so I will not repeat them.

Regarding the idea of a completely uncollateralized fiat payment network, I already answered that, twice. If people want that they will just use existing fiat networks. LN offers nothing special to them at all (nor does Bitcoin in any form, or alts).

[JorgeStolfi]

I have difficulties understanding how someone who is trying to come off as an academic can get so side tracked with attempts at irrelevant digs into attempts to find bad motives and assertions that individuals are simple and driven by narrow agendas.  

The personalities in "bitcon space" are fascinating, quite unlike those of other communities I have known in the past 30+ years of forum surfing.  Most in a negative way, unfortunately.  People like Mark Karpelès, Danny Brewster, the BFL gang, the Bitcoin Foundation, and many other far too numerous to list.  

I cannot avoid taking sides in the block size limit war.  I am not exactly a fan of Mike and Gavin, but on the other hand I cannot find anything good to say about the Blocstream guys.  Not about character, not about ethics, not about respect for the project and its users, not even about competence.  Bankruptcy is the least they deserve.

A couple days ago, Luke-Jr trolled BitcoinClassic by posting a pull request that would change the PoW algorithm to make it impossible to mine with ASICs.  I then proposed that the Core devs do that on Core.  It was meant to be a just counter-trolling.  But it seems that Greg and Luke-Jr are seriously dreaming the option of doing just that in case the miners switch to Classic.  It is Idiocracy II -- but with bitcoin!

[JorgeStolfi]

Doesn't make much sense. While 1/10000 of the transaction represents only 0.01% of the [ LN ] customer's transaction cost, it represents 100% of the tranasaction aggregator's cost - and that is the party tasked with selecting the ultimate settlement network.

It is not clear whether the USD (or BTC) volume of the settlement traffic will be 100% of the USD (or BTC) volume of LN payments.  IIUC, the LN will not only aggregate payments but will also cancel opposite or circular payments.  Or maybe not, not sure.

Settlements between banks have lots of cancellation, so they are much less than the total volume of interbank bank wires issued by clients.  It would be a shame if the LN cannot not do that

[brg444]

I'd advise trader here to secure their long position.

We have consensus.

When did this royal "we" come to this result?

Should I act quickly, or do I have a few days of down before the up comes?

Not long ago.

I'd advise you act quickly.  

[Cconvert2G36]

He's talking about this...

[23:26] <BlueMatt> thats probably still really tight, but I'd say at least a year
[23:27] <wangchun> BlueMatt: I agree
[23:27] <wangchun> Then we are talking something not happen until 2017

CONSENSUS IS FORMING

FORK CLASSIC

#REKT

But neglects to give what Chun said earlier.  

[peonminer]

OH TEH NOEZ CORE GETTIN REKT FOR REAL DIS TIME

[jbreher]

People need to do a bank run in every exchange (maybe even online wallets too) well before we reach the point of the hard fork, to ensure that they have control of their BTCs.

AlexGR raises an excellent point. If there is an upcoming contentious hardfork scheduled then the first things people are going to do is withdraw ALL their coins off the exchanges and out of any custodial services.

To what end?

Every coin that they withdraw before the fork ends up being one coin on each chain after the fork. If they leave one coin on the exchange, there is likely no existing contractual agreement that the exchange might grant them back one coin on chain A, while keeping the one coin on chain B for itself.