Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

interesting! mark friedenbach seems to not like the consensus that was reached today. if he stands as example gmax could also oppose the consensus.

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46po4l/we_have_consensus_in_april_we_get_sw_3_months/d074dh7

will they do their own fork now?

I guess I have to change my sig. That was fast.

But regarding the "consensus" document that was posted on medium, no I am not on board with that outcome.

[ImI]

interesting! mark friedenbach seems to not like the consensus that was reached today. if he stands as example gmax could also oppose the consensus.

https://np.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46po4l/we_have_consensus_in_april_we_get_sw_3_months/d074dh7

will they do their own fork now?

I guess I have to change my sig. That was fast.

But regarding the "consensus" document that was posted on medium, no I am not on board with that outcome.

i think we can slowly slowly understand why this whole mess could evolve to the point we were experiencing. some of those devs seem to be little ballerinas...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

I see that, but that's not my concern. Someone with >50% hashpower can double spend. or tripple spend, or senf the same BTC to 12 different exchanges and sell it, crashing the price to pennies while still mining NEW bitcoins which they spend twelve times keeping the price there.

We can always pick a point in the past where there is concensus that a double spend hasn't happened yet and freeze the blockchain there until we fix the double spending problem.  I agree with that. What I don't think you are considering is that the fix may take months to get everyone to agree on the same fix and implement it IF it can be done at all.  In the mean time, your "store of value" plummets to the purchasing power of bellybutton lint. 

We would need:
Protocol change
hardware
code
agreement

You could be right. I may be a dumbass. If I am, someone please tell me why.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

I see that, but that's not my concern. Someone with >50% hashpower can double spend. or tripple spend, or senf the same BTC to 12 different exchanges and sell it, crashing the price to pennies while still mining NEW bitcoins which they spend twelve times keeping the price there.

We can always pick a point in the past where there is concensus that a double spend hasn't happened yet and freeze the blockchain there until we fix the double spending problem.  I agree with that. What I don't think you are considering is that the fix may take months to get everyone to agree on the same fix and implement it IF it can be done at all.  In the mean time, your "store of value" plummets to the purchasing power of bellybutton lint. 

We would need:
Protocol change
hardware
code
agreement

You could be right. I may be a dumbass. If I am, someone please tell me why.

Marcus can probably call you a dumbass if you wait around long enough. But he probably won't have time to explain why.

[adamstgBit]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

[blunderer]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

Wait, didn't you say Alice wanted to send money to Bob? How did the conversation switch to Bitcoin
P.S. No, you won't solve a block in 90 minutes with 10% of the hashing power. If the other 90% didn't exist (and you started with a valid block), you might (though good luck to Alice getting her TX included in the solved block lol).

[ImI]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

maybe he is right. friedenbach already stood against the HF-consensus. maxwell is known to be a diva, he could join him and prolong this little nerd-fight.

[billyjoeallen]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

My short is a hedge. I'm longer on bitcoin that almost everybody here, and I am very uncomfortable with that.

[shmadz]

So your response is to call me a dumbass? That doesn't seem like a real answer. Do you have a logical answer to my concerns?  Does anybody?

There is a difference between Bitcoin being uncensored and being censorship resistant. We are currently uncensored, but at the mercy of a government that will not allow banks in that country to even hold bitcoin accounts or allow their citizens to do anything with this currency except speculate on it.  This is not exactly a huge selling point.  

Yes, you're a dumbass. Bitcoin exists not at the mercy of some gov't, bitcoin exists despite gov't or malicious actors.

Simple example for you: Alice wants to send money to Bob, but China won't allow it. China owns 90 percent of hash power so China is able to delay the transaction for nine out of ten blocks, but eventually the transaction goes through and Bob gets paid. It took 90 minutes instead of 10 minutes but still 3 days faster than bank ( actually, China controls 100% of bank, so... Yeah, that's censorship resistance.)

I see that, but that's not my concern. Someone with >50% hashpower can double spend. or tripple spend, or senf the same BTC to 12 different exchanges and sell it, crashing the price to pennies while still mining NEW bitcoins which they spend twelve times keeping the price there.

You can only double-spend your own coins (second time I told you this) exchanges typically require ass'y least 3 confirmations,  which means at 50% you'd essentially need to win 4 coin flips in a row  (3 to trick the exchange and the 4th to double-spend the coins) - which means you would only succeed in this attack 6.25 % of the time. Also, if this type of attack became common, exchanges would start to simply wait for 4,5,6 transactions or more...

We can always pick a point in the past where there is concensus that a double spend hasn't happened yet and freeze the blockchain there until we fix the double spending problem.  I agree with that. What I don't think you are considering is that the fix may take months to get everyone to agree on the same fix and implement it IF it can be done at all.  In the mean time, your "store of value" plummets to the purchasing power of bellybutton lint. 

We would need:
Protocol change
hardware
code
agreement

You could be right. I may be a dumbass. If I am, someone please tell me why.

You know what? You might be slow to pick this up, but you're not nearly as ignorant or rude as BJA. I think Marcus was right. I'm sorry I called you a dumbass, but that's what you get when you buy a dumbasses account. hope you didn't pay too much.

[JayJuanGee]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

My short is a hedge. I'm longer on bitcoin that almost everybody here, and I am very uncomfortable with that.

Yeah, yeah, yeah...


Why don't you give some specifics?


You keep making so many claims without specifics, and then comparing yourself to others.

so what?  Each of us have our individual situations, and we invest according to a variety of factors (hopefully tailored to our individual situations).

Not too many people get into specifics of their holdings, so it would be difficult for you to say that you are more long than a variety of people.  What is it?

70% long?    or some other approximate number.  Give us something, if you want to be credible in such a claim that you are more long or whatever way better than others... blah blah blah.

[adamstgBit]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

maybe he is right. friedenbach already stood against the HF-consensus. maxwell is known to be a diva, he could join him and prolong this little nerd-fight.

4MB is an awesome deal,  i can't wait to see how poeple react to some diva refusing this agreement, while proposing a much worst proposal. another proposal will need to be trailered to a specific group to gain any support over this 4MB proposal, at which point it becomes obvious they are not looking for consensus but merely like to make noise.
beside its not like we haven't heard his objections 100X before.
let him repeat himself one more time, with feeling!
i dont mind.

[shmadz]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

I'm pretty sure BJA must have gotten cleaned out on that short and sold his account to recoup the loss.

He and I have been extremely rude to each other in the past, not just me actually, here's a sample of the old bja,

- Do I have to fucking spell it out? I'll try to use small words so you morons can understand.
- What is most unpleasant to deal with is stupid people who don't know they're stupid.
- It wasn't an accident that I got in in 2011 and you didn't. I'm smarter than you.

That's actually three sentences from the same post! Compare with today:

"You could be right. I may be a dumbass. If I am, someone please tell me why."

When did bja ever admit to being wrong? Or ask to be corrected?

Just saying, pretty sure that's not the same guy.

[JayJuanGee]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

By the way Adam... I don't mind moving some semblance of our other conversation to the thread...

I mean... really, in the past several weeks, volume has been fairly average, and possibly it has picked up a bit in the past few days... but really, it remains fairly average (yet maybe a bit above average for the weekend).

Concerning the further upward price movement.... I remain a bit unclear about which way prices are going to go...


I mean surely there has not been much volume to push prices up, but there may be some signalling that will allow further upward movement.. and maybe our new channel is now between $415 and $470... with the extreme ups and downs a bit more difficult to achieve rather than the possibility that we could stay in a $430 to $445 range over the remainder of the weekend.. maybe until Tuesday? 

Yeah.. I'm really all over the place speculating in this speculation thread.     

[coins101]

I like the way Adam Back runs the miners meeting, then avoids his name appearing in the press releases.

Makes me think he has an agenda. You know, that open secret to ensure Blockstream road map gets fully implemented into Core.

[billyjoeallen]

You can only double-spend your own coins (second time I told you this) exchanges typically require ass'y least 3 confirmations,  which means at 50% you'd essentially need to win 4 coin flips in a row  (3 to trick the exchange and the 4th to double-spend the coins) - which means you would only succeed in this attack 6.25 % of the time. Also, if this type of attack became common, exchanges would start to simply wait for 4,5,6 transactions or more...

Yeah, but China has ~75% hashpower, not 50%.  winning three bets in a row with 75% odds is a 42% chance, a heluva lot higher than 6.25% and I'm pretty sure the miners who get nationalized keep a good size pile of coins that could be double spent.  Even if they don't, The Chicoms could nationalize the Chinese exchanges too and then they have coins up the wazzu to dump. 

freshly mined coins can't be spent right away. I get that. What I'm saying is that doesn't matter in a well-executed 51% attack, because you can also verify bogus transactions.  If I was an evil Chinese Official, I could execute this attack with no more expertise than I now currently hold just by pointing guns at the right people. 

[adamstgBit]

we are trending.

[ImI]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

maybe he is right. friedenbach already stood against the HF-consensus. maxwell is known to be a diva, he could join him and prolong this little nerd-fight.

4MB is an awesome deal,  i can't wait to see how poeple react to some diva refusing this agreement, while proposing a much worst proposal. another proposal will need to be trailered to a specific group to gain any support over this 4MB proposal, at which point it becomes obvious they are not looking for consensus but merely like to make noise.
beside its not like we haven't heard his objections 100X before.
let him repeat himself one more time, with feeling!
i dont mind.

lets see, if they are really nutheads they could even try to break away from core.

[shmadz]

I like the way Adam Back runs the miners meeting, then avoids his name appearing in the press releases.

Makes me think he has an agenda. You know, that open secret to ensure Blockstream road map gets fully implemented into Core.

Adam was into bitcoin before there even was a bitcoin... Maybe he's jealous that he missed out on the early days of something that was built on his invention of hash cash, but he sounds like a pretty reasonable guy...

 https://soundcloud.com/bitcoinuncensored/adam-back-interview-bitcoin-uncensored-at-miami-bitcoin-hackathon-012316

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

billyjoeallen is high on fiat. ( oh wait he shorted not sold )

maybe he is right. friedenbach already stood against the HF-consensus. maxwell is known to be a diva, he could join him and prolong this little nerd-fight.

4MB is an awesome deal,  i can't wait to see how poeple react to some diva refusing this agreement, while proposing a much worst proposal. another proposal will need to be trailered to a specific group to gain any support over this 4MB proposal, at which point it becomes obvious they are not looking for consensus but merely like to make noise.
beside its not like we haven't heard his objections 100X before.
let him repeat himself one more time, with feeling!
i dont mind.

Some diva in particular?
https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/46s2qz/core_please_endorse_news_with_formal_addition_to/d07pqcm?context=3
Who's Maaku7?