Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shmadz]

China is leading this rally because they think this roundtable agreement means we have consensus. That is far from certain. I'm thinking the main sticking point with Core will be/is:

1. getting boxed into a time frame, even an extraordinarily accommodating one.
2. no pledge to stick with Core even if they renege.

Bigblockers seem to all be smart enough to know that this is Core's deal to blow. We'll take the deal. But if Core Doesn't take it too even though they basically won,  then we go to war and it will be Core against the world. Everyone will know who the bad guys are. Smallblockers will lose.

I kinda hope they don't take it.  This was a last ditch effort on the part of miners to keep Core in the loop for the sake of market stability.  I care less about market stability than an end to the Divine Right of Kings.  

You got nowhere to go, Smallblockers. Take the deal or we will bury you.

All right, that's more like it. Welcome back asshole. How much do they pay you to hijack your account for the evening?

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[sAt0sHiFanClub]

This hard-fork is expected to include features which are currently being discussed within technical communities, including an increase in the non-witness data to be around 2 MB, with the total size no more than 4 MB, and will only be adopted with broad support across the entire Bitcoin community.

    SegWit is expected to be released in April 2016.
    The code for the hard-fork will therefore be available by July 2016.
    If there is strong community support, the hard-fork activation will likely happen around July 2017.

So if someone started a purely classic/xt pool and got more than 5% hashing power...

Exactly. If someone ran a purely classic/xt pool and got more than 5% hashing power they should be able to single-handedly prevent any future hard fork of the currently existing bitcoin consensus protocol.

Why do you think there has been no changes to TCP/IP in the last 20 years? Why do you think IPV6 still has less than 1% implementation?

Changes to consensus protocol are not easy, nor should they be.

Nah, Peter Todd has already thought of that. 0.12+ will probably start blacklisting any non-segwit nodes (initially for bootstrapping reasons, but no reason why it cant use it as a banning criteria).
No, it doesn't matter what level of 'consensus' they have, as long as >51% mine on their fork, 95% of the non mining nodes can go to hell.

[shmadz]

Indeed.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

^So much evil in the heart of one man. How?

Fat people have enlarged hearts.

Interesting.
How do they have so much darkness in their souls tho?

Well, the idea that the fat person is fat because he/she is a fat lazy bastard is foreign to the fat person. So to make sense of the fact that he/she is in fact fat he/she starts blaming the world.

* I am not referring to the fat person as he/she of PC reasons. It's just very hard to tell sometimes.

I find that too much jaegermeister further dulls my ability to make the distinction, often with hilarious results...

[billyjoeallen]

China is leading this rally because they think this roundtable agreement means we have consensus. That is far from certain. I'm thinking the main sticking point with Core will be/is:

1. getting boxed into a time frame, even an extraordinarily accommodating one.
2. no pledge to stick with Core even if they renege.

Bigblockers seem to all be smart enough to know that this is Core's deal to blow. We'll take the deal. But if Core Doesn't take it too even though they basically won,  then we go to war and it will be Core against the world. Everyone will know who the bad guys are. Smallblockers will lose.

I kinda hope they don't take it.  This was a last ditch effort on the part of miners to keep Core in the loop for the sake of market stability.  I care less about market stability than an end to the Divine Right of Kings.  

You got nowhere to go, Smallblockers. Take the deal or we will bury you.

All right, that's more like it. Welcome back asshole. How much do they pay you to hijack your account for the evening?

You crack me up, schmadzi. 1MB4EVA is dead. Killed by Adam Back of all people.  What's the weather like down there under the bus?  Now let's see how Maxwell and the other Prima Donna's like getting pushed around by the help.

[shmadz]

Bitcoin now crossing the boundary into the fabled Gox Resistance Field (GRF).

3rd attempt at penetration.

Thank you toknormal, I kinda missed that during my paranoid delusion.

I don't know for sure if the gox timelines match, but it looks like it could be one hell of a cup and handle forming...

[shmadz]

China is leading this rally because they think this roundtable agreement means we have consensus. That is far from certain. I'm thinking the main sticking point with Core will be/is:

1. getting boxed into a time frame, even an extraordinarily accommodating one.
2. no pledge to stick with Core even if they renege.

Bigblockers seem to all be smart enough to know that this is Core's deal to blow. We'll take the deal. But if Core Doesn't take it too even though they basically won,  then we go to war and it will be Core against the world. Everyone will know who the bad guys are. Smallblockers will lose.

I kinda hope they don't take it.  This was a last ditch effort on the part of miners to keep Core in the loop for the sake of market stability.  I care less about market stability than an end to the Divine Right of Kings.  

You got nowhere to go, Smallblockers. Take the deal or we will bury you.

All right, that's more like it. Welcome back asshole. How much do they pay you to hijack your account for the evening?

You crack me up, schmadzi. 1MB4EVA is dead. Killed by Adam Back of all people.  What's the weather like down there under the bus?  Now let's see how Maxwell and the other Prima Donna's like getting pushed around by the help.

Back was never the droid you were looking for.

The real antagonist will be Popescu.

Good luck in phase two of implementing your fail fork.

[sAt0sHiFanClub]

Bitcoin: distributed decentralized money secured by cowardly miners concentrated in China.  There is no plan or code to switch security measures if they get compromised.

Awesome. This is where I keep my life savings.  I'm a fucking genius.

ignored ... i don't know who has taken over the BJA account but it is clear now your aim is to FUD and stir shit at every turn, big-block war pumping, now something new to pump FUD ... you are an enemy of bitcoin.

[rebuilder]

Yes, of course, you're totally bang on with your assessment. If there were a serious attack like this I suspect there might be a fork, maybe...

-----

If you want to perform such an attack regardless of cost, and with unlimited budget, I believe it has already been proven that the Byzantine general's problem is unsolvable, (lacking sufficient incentives)

It's likely that the incentive structure is the only thing that truly protects the blockchain.

A fork, sure, but a fork to what? Short of changing the hashing algorithm, I don't see what's going to prevent a destructive miner from shitting all over the new fork, too.

So: double-spends for direct economic gain don't seem likely to be a huge problem. Miners disrupting the network for political reasons (or ransom, for that matter) seems like it could be an issue, but it's hard to estimate how likely such an attack would be.

[billyjoeallen]

China is leading this rally because they think this roundtable agreement means we have consensus. That is far from certain. I'm thinking the main sticking point with Core will be/is:

1. getting boxed into a time frame, even an extraordinarily accommodating one.
2. no pledge to stick with Core even if they renege.

Bigblockers seem to all be smart enough to know that this is Core's deal to blow. We'll take the deal. But if Core Doesn't take it too even though they basically won,  then we go to war and it will be Core against the world. Everyone will know who the bad guys are. Smallblockers will lose.

I kinda hope they don't take it.  This was a last ditch effort on the part of miners to keep Core in the loop for the sake of market stability.  I care less about market stability than an end to the Divine Right of Kings.  

You got nowhere to go, Smallblockers. Take the deal or we will bury you.

All right, that's more like it. Welcome back asshole. How much do they pay you to hijack your account for the evening?

You crack me up, schmadzi. 1MB4EVA is dead. Killed by Adam Back of all people.  What's the weather like down there under the bus?  Now let's see how Maxwell and the other Prima Donna's like getting pushed around by the help.

Back was never the droid you were looking for.

The real antagonist will be Popescu.

Good luck in phase two of implementing your fail fork.

Buddy, every miner knows that the more hashpower you have on your side, the less luck you need.

[spike420211]

yeah, enuf wit teh uptick volatility...
I had enuf saved up for a proper reload for Betcoin, and now this...

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[bitebits]

Crazy market +20% in two weeks.

Seems like Bitcoin did not only solve the Byzantine Generals Problem, but is as well challenging Newton's law of universal gravitation.

[shmadz]

Yes, of course, you're totally bang on with your assessment. If there were a serious attack like this I suspect there might be a fork, maybe...

-----

If you want to perform such an attack regardless of cost, and with unlimited budget, I believe it has already been proven that the Byzantine general's problem is unsolvable, (lacking sufficient incentives)

It's likely that the incentive structure is the only thing that truly protects the blockchain.

A fork, sure, but a fork to what? Short of changing the hashing algorithm, I don't see what's going to prevent a destructive miner from shitting all over the new fork, too.

So: double-spends for direct economic gain don't seem likely to be a huge problem. Miners disrupting the network for political reasons (or ransom, for that matter) seems like it could be an issue, but it's hard to estimate how likely such an attack would be.

I've thought about this, actually. Not as a malicious attack, but in the (far more likely) event of getting stuck on the wrong end of a hard fork. And yeah, it's a problem.

Best case you're waiting many hours, perhaps days per block, until a difficulty change. (This is it's probably unacceptable to the mainstream, but to the participants of MPEX and bitcoin-assets --well--  I wouldn't be surprised if they were willing to accept several weeks or months of extremely slow blocks until a difficulty change. I'm not an insider, but that's the feeling that I get when reading the logs.

But that's just the best case scenario, in the worst case you'd be suffering attacks from the overwhelming majority of hash power (I think mitigation for this would be hard-coded nodes, attaching only to other nodes within the web of trust.) They could potentially operate a viable network with at minimum the 6 or 7 nodes they already run.

Both scenarios are not desirable. I think the algorithm change is probably the most likely outcome. It provides protection from asic attack,  and, let's be honest , there is a strong incentive to bring back cpu or at least gpu-friendly mining.

In any case, I think a fork is risky, more risky than most people realize, and I think that Mircea Popescu and his followers are a formidable and compelling group and should not be discounted.

Interesting times ahead.

[billyjoeallen]

Coin



Explanation

look at those full blocks! but it's ok, we'll have some more room sometime in the middle of next year.

[bitebits]

Coin



Explanation

look at those full blocks! but it's ok, we'll have some more room sometime in the middle of next year.

BJA, are you still short? This seems the moment for the market to catch some breath (testing 3000 CNY).

[becoin]

look at those full blocks! but it's ok, we'll have some more room sometime in the middle of next year.

I've never had any delays or other issues sending bitcoins. What is your problem with full blocks?

[billyjoeallen]

Coin



Explanation

look at those full blocks! but it's ok, we'll have some more room sometime in the middle of next year.

BJA, are you still short? This seems the moment for the market to catch some breath (testing 3000 CNY).

I think 3000 will be breached, everyone will celebrate thinking this is a whole new paradigm, and then the bottom will fall out. $3.8 million in new leveraged longs on BFX leaves nothing but air under a serious test of support.

[Karartma1]

look at those full blocks! but it's ok, we'll have some more room sometime in the middle of next year.

I've never had any delays or other issues sending bitcoins. What is your problem with full blocks?

Paying the suggested fee of 5000 satoshi per KB everything gets confirmed pretty soon. Haven't had any delays in a long time: miners need to be paid.

[billyjoeallen]

look at those full blocks! but it's ok, we'll have some more room sometime in the middle of next year.

I've never had any delays or other issues sending bitcoins. What is your problem with full blocks?

The same problem I have flying coach. No elbow room.