Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

the market looks like there will not be any big movements this week as the price is moving between 410 to 415 for the last three days.
hope that next week will bring more active movements to the btc market

people say these kinds of things all the time, and I am not sure if it is impatience, spin or not seeing the situation for what it really is.

bitcoin is like this.  Accordingly, there could be a break out (up or down) any minute... or like you suggested, it could take a few more days.... The mere fact that it has been within a small price range in recent days does not mean it is going to stay in that price range and in fact makes it more likely that it will soon break out of that price range.. either up or down.. then it could return to the price range again... lots of things can happen with the price, even if it seems that nothing is happening at the moment.

JJG - Wait, so... based on your current trade strategy, have you simply stopped accumulating? Now you are just strictly selling after each slight rise? I feel like I'm getting half the picture here.

And, can that coin that shall not be named just go away already? /sigh. I keep waiting for a giant drop and it keeps just not happening. Which is frustrating, because there is no reason a company would want to use that coin when they could simply copycoin their own... for free. Grr.

Tomothy:  I tend to provide a whole hell-of-a lot more details regarding my trade than most others, and the extent to which anyone feels that they are getting half of the picture may be a matter of attempting to nit pick details in order to create an issue in which there is not an issue and not really engage with the various points of my posts.  

I have no problem sharing some details; however, I consider these matters to be brainstorming and discussions regarding how to deal with volatility... and I won't necessarily provide information merely to be trolled if other participants are neither engaging with the points of the materials nor providing some of their own personal details in order to provide some kind of contrasting or complimentary viewpoint.

To narrow in on your particular question, no matter the price, I will continue to adjust staggered bets to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down.  

I don't know exactly how my strategy is going to play out, and overall, I am not really selling more than I am buying back... .even though there may be ebbs and flows when the price moves quickly in one direction or another.  So for example, since October 2015, I have accumulated nearly 7% more coins, and I have accumulated enough cash in order that I could reasonably buy between 4% to 7% more coins, depending upon whether prices drop quickly or if I play the money with some luck.  

So, there does seem to be some accumulation going on with my strategy of both bitcoins and cash.. and the ratios are likely to change over time, yet I would like to have around the same number of coins that I had in October 2015 - even if bitcoin were to 10x (and that would be in the $3k to $5k price arena).  There may be ways to sell out completely (let's say 10% of coins every time bitcoin prices double), yet even though I have considered some of those kinds of frameworks, my strategy is not so formulaic as having some kind of set schedule of sells because I also buy back as you should be able to identify from the buy and sell projection charts that I provided in my earlier post.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Sorry for making fun of you (I couldn't resist). But average block size isn't a good metric. Empty blocks (and also soft limits) skew the result a lot, that's the reason why ChartBuddy takes that into account. Also, like in the rush hour, there are particular time windows that traffic spills over, e.g. when only 3 or 4 blocks in an hour are found. So there are isolated periods of delays, and the required fees go up and down with it. On top of that, not all wallets have good fee prediction algorithms (and some don't at all -- I think blockchain.info still uses a flat fee).

All this explains there are some users who have bad experiences, while other don't have any. If I send txs, I use my Mycelium wallet, which works like a breeze. Like you, I never have serious delays. I do sometimes pay high fees, though. My record fee has been 128 sat/B (0.000621 BTC in total) on 21 January.

But that doesn't mean that there's no capacity problem developing. Nor that there are no bad user experiences because of it. And those damage the reputation of Bitcoin. New users have to know too much of the workings of Bitcoin to protect themselves from having a bad experience. About transaction sizes, rate per byte, double checking cointape.com . It's damaging.

Saying "there's no problem (yet) -- so no need to worry" just doesn't cut it. We saw it coming for a year already, it's happening now, and it will get worse.

I believe that this particular response to me is cogent and reasonable; however, I really have concerns about placing too much weight in Chartbuddy.  I understand that Richie_T provided various explanations, but there is no meaningful explanation in the chartbuddy "explanation" link, and really, we should have some third party source like Blockchain.info that provides more specifics to be able to hone in and to get better detailed information. 

Otherwise, I remain quite unconvinced about a large amount of anectdotal whining and screaming and even admitted exaggerations that seem to be more emotional rather than factual.

Based on the evidence that I have seen to date, I remain convinced that the fulblocalypse emergency is more exaggerated than it is actual, and I am of the belief that measures, analysis and considerations currently underway, including seg wit and potential considerations regarding further changes that may be considered after the implementation of seg wit are sufficiently adequate under the current conditions and timeline. 

Yes people are hysterical and emotional and vocal and attempting to bring the price down to bring attention to their concerns, but that kind of emotional and "consumer" behavior just seems to be inadequate in proving any kind of factual point that we got some kind of emergency on our hands at the present moment, and even several months into the future.

show me some actual data that is more convincing than the main two charts on blockchain.info, and I will incorporate that data into my consideration and/or reconsideration of the matter.

Again.. for ease of reference, here are the two main charts that I find factually material to the at-hand issue .


Average blocksize
https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

Median confirmation time with fees.
https://blockchain.info/charts/median-confirmation-time?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

By the way, within each of the two charts, I selected to look at the matter over the past year, but what is nice about the info contained in those charts is that you can click on various timelines in order to see the ups and downs of these average numbers in order to zoom in and to zoom out.  If blockchain.info could come up some better charts, then that would be great too, because they seem to be a pretty credible source in this space concerning various things going on in respect to the bitcoin blockchain.

Perhaps this animated graph of block size and transaction fee can show you.

http://organofcorti.blogspot.nl/2016/03/block-size-and-transaction-fee-animation.html

A more detailed (and non-animated) view:

https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-Ze8NXBUY7Z0/VtpIeA1cFYI/AAAAAAAAFeU/Ju1kct5bWHk/s1600/post2_plot2_2016-03-05.png

I will take it on faith that those graphs are factually accurate.

they still don't demonstrate some kind of emergency state, and even though a bit more granular than blockchain.info, they are not really showing anything that should cause panic. 

I do wish that blockchain.info would come out with some more granular charts to maybe break down by hourly or even shorter periods and to be able to zoom in or out in order to better see if there are some rush hour periods.. and maybe even if there are ways to show charts that separate spam and legit transactions  I get the sense that seg wit filters out spam too, so maybe we are going to witness some better representations of what's going on once seg wit is live?.

Anyhow, there is work on seg wit at the moment and a plan to begin with that (coming soon) and then to give further consideration to whether an additional physical block size limitation needs to be incorporated as well.. so I really am still having difficulties grappling with some of the panick.   

[BlackSpidy]

@JJG I'm ready to start trading. Ever short sold anything on Poloniex? I need a lesson.

I shorted dogecoin once, the latest time it was worth 110 satoshi each. It was the easiest quickest, (and under that category) least risky 10% gain I've made. Went in with 0.01 BTC, made it out with 0.011, its not much, but it was definitely awesome.

[JayJuanGee]

@JJG I'm ready to start trading. Ever short sold anything on Poloniex? I need a lesson.

I'm not really into shorting, as far as I know...

I think that I open and close longs, mostly.

The closing of longs allows me to accumulate cash so that when BTC prices drop I can open a new long. 

If the price does not drop, then I just wait it out and close more longs, and surely some day the price will drop which would cause me to open new longs at the price points that may be higher than I had sold (possibly)..

Overall, though I believe that, so far, my strategy only involves opening and closing longs, and I don't really do margin or leveraging trading either.

So call me a novice.

 

[bargainbin]

I propose we do something constructive. We're a bunch of bright guys. Let's put our heads together for a change.

How about:
Create a Septemdecimal number system, so's mankind could finally shake off the decimal yoke. Pretty great?
Wait, there's more!
And then we solve the centralization problem -- invent a p2p money that would be nearly impossible to counterfeit or use.

Potential problem: Mankind is thrust into ginormous existential crisis, its two biggest problems solved & nothing left to do.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I propose we do something constructive destructive. We're a bunch of bright guys. Let's put our heads together for a change.

How about:
Create a Septemdecimal number system, so's mankind could finally shake off the decimal yoke. Pretty great?
Wait, there's more!
And then we solve the centralization problem -- invent a p2p money that would be nearly impossible to counterfeit or use.

Potential problem: Mankind is thrust into ginormous existential crisis, its two biggest problems solved & nothing left to do.

We can always go to war about it. Great way to stimulate the shoes economy.

[bargainbin]

We can always go to war about it. Great way to stimulate the shoes economy.

https://youtu.be/Metv95k5VrY
*and just let it run in the background, through https://youtu.be/IXHcSBhfkx8 and ... and the rest of their stuff.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Why won't more of these (you) degenerates just turn in their shoes?! Do it for industry. For god's sake, do it so you can sleep at night. If that's all it takes!

Call me old-fashioned...

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[adamstgBit]

look at the list of pro and cons for a 2MB increase, i think the pros far outweigh the cons

[adamstgBit]

Why won't more of these (you) degenerates just turn in their shoes?! Do it for industry. For god's sake, do it so you can sleep at night. If that's all it takes!

Call me old-fashioned...

Hey! Did anybody see Anderson Cooper hit Donald trump in the head with his shoe?

whats with this "shoe" thing

 Anderson Cooper hit Donald trump in the head with his shoe? O_o?

[nioc]

We can always go to war about it. Great way to stimulate the shoes economy.

https://youtu.be/Metv95k5VrY
*and just let it run in the background, through https://youtu.be/IXHcSBhfkx8 and ... and the rest of their stuff.

My oh my......flashbacks...........real ones.  How the fuck old are you.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RwG5c9IsgbA

[ImI]

look at the list of pro and cons for a 2MB increase, i think the pros far outweigh the cons

the discussion isnt technical anymore. its become political and emotional. core knows that a 2MB HF is not a desaster, but to give in would mean to give in to the mob.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

whats with this "shoe" thing

 Anderson Cooper hit Donald trump in the head with his shoe? O_o?

Anderson Cooper hit Donald Trump in the head with his shoe?

Did anybody else see that??

[yefi]

I propose we do something constructive. We're a bunch of bright guys. Let's put our heads together for a change.

* yefi headbutts BlindMayorBitcorn.

[ChartBuddy]

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Explanation

[adamstgBit]

I propose we do something constructive. We're a bunch of bright guys. Let's put our heads together for a change.

[bargainbin]

^Throw them out into the cold. No coats. Confiscate their coats.
P.S. The Bitcoin of transportation: Monowheel *with propeller*!

                Be your own bank gerbil^TM

[adamstgBit]

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