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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (8.9%)
8/4 - 16 (12.9%)
8/11 - 8 (6.5%)
8/18 - 6 (4.8%)
8/25 - 8 (6.5%)
After August - 74 (59.7%)
Total Voters: 124

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26490976 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
bargainbin
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March 12, 2016, 12:45:53 AM



Canadians, how is it you're still alive?
@Fatman: I just know Bomber Deer had a hand in this Angry
AlexGR
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March 12, 2016, 01:00:18 AM

Why do I feel you are deliberately choosing not to see the other POV? Let's forget for a minute that you seem to have the ability to tell apart a user transaction from a spam transaction and suggest that actually the daily demand for transactions rises above 250,000 consistently. Tell me how exactly users who are unable to get a transaction confirmed (they just sit there ad infinitum) are not 'disrupted'?
Since when did failure of transactions to be written to the chain become a feature? It is a sign of failure.

You said:

Quote
The best bit is that as the network becomes increasingly congested actually performing a flooding attack to completely disrupt the network becomes trivially cheap to employ.

And I just noted that the network cannot be disrupted (let alone "completely"), it will continue to process its 250k txs per day, with the highest-paid-tx-gets-included queue.

The idea that every tx has to be included and the network must upgrade to compensate is wrong because it is a self-feeding loop that tends to infinite spam and abuse. If I am a spammer and you give me 1mb to fill, and I fill it, and you give me 10mb and I do the same, will you keep giving me 100mb, 1gb, 10gb blocks etc etc, where I fill them all? Do you think this kind of self-defeating system is some kind of "success"? Are there many blockchains, beyond bitcoin, where you can do just that and where the devs haven't taken action to save their blockchain - typically through sharper fees to act as a deterrent to the attackers?

The case of having 250.000 legit txs and zero spam, and them having to compete for that 250k tx space is just theoretical. Why? Because actual txs are way below that point and by the time actual txs double or triple (which could take >1 year), we'll be 1.7 or even more (which is right ahead). So rejoice, more spam will be able to be included to the blockchain compared to our 700-800kb per block right now.
ChartBuddy
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March 12, 2016, 01:00:31 AM

Coin



Explanation
adamstgBit
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March 12, 2016, 01:15:21 AM

Why do I feel you are deliberately choosing not to see the other POV? Let's forget for a minute that you seem to have the ability to tell apart a user transaction from a spam transaction and suggest that actually the daily demand for transactions rises above 250,000 consistently. Tell me how exactly users who are unable to get a transaction confirmed (they just sit there ad infinitum) are not 'disrupted'?
Since when did failure of transactions to be written to the chain become a feature? It is a sign of failure.

You said:

Quote
The best bit is that as the network becomes increasingly congested actually performing a flooding attack to completely disrupt the network becomes trivially cheap to employ.

And I just noted that the network cannot be disrupted (let alone "completely"), it will continue to process its 250k txs per day, with the highest-paid-tx-gets-included queue.

The idea that every tx has to be included and the network must upgrade to compensate is wrong because it is a self-feeding loop that tends to infinite spam and abuse. If I am a spammer and you give me 1mb to fill, and I fill it, and you give me 10mb and I do the same, will you keep giving me 100mb, 1gb, 10gb blocks etc etc, where I fill them all? Do you think this kind of self-defeating system is some kind of "success"? Are there many blockchains, beyond bitcoin, where you can do just that and where the devs haven't taken action to save their blockchain - typically through sharper fees to act as a deterrent to the attackers?

The case of having 250.000 legit txs and zero spam, and them having to compete for that 250k tx space is just theoretical. Why? Because actual txs are way below that point and by the time actual txs double or triple (which could take >1 year), we'll be 1.7 or even more (which is right ahead). So rejoice, more spam will be able to be included to the blockchain compared to our 700-800kb per block right now.

how are miners going to get paid when block reward  goes away?

years ago we just kinda shrugged this off saying "one day there will be several orders of magnitude more TX and the fees will pay the miners"

at 1 or 2 MB there's just no way fees can replace block reward.

i think pretending that there will be 250k TX a day willing to pay 5$ of fees each is nutty.

if we have a crazy spammer that will fill blocks with some minimal fee TX, indefinitely, i say, let's take advantage of this guy!

AliceGored
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March 12, 2016, 01:20:23 AM

-snip-
If I am a spammer and you give me 1mb to fill, and I fill it, and you give me 10mb and I do the same, will you keep giving me 100mb, 1gb, 10gb blocks etc etc, where I fill them all?
-snip-

Get your shit together, it took you 7 years to fill the 1MB.

For the Nth time, we simply disagree on who should decide what is spam or not. You say Core developers, comprised of the blockstream clique. Others say the miners are better qualified to determine their production levels and prices.
AlexGR
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March 12, 2016, 01:21:42 AM
Last edit: March 12, 2016, 01:33:40 AM by AlexGR

I think it's a good analogy, which makes the issue easier to understand. If there are flaws in the analogy, I'm happy to discuss them. The criticism of AlexGR that people on a bus are real, and Bitcoin transactions in a block (according to him) are not, is just childish.

His other remark that it's cheap to buy all the space in a block (because blocks are quite small and transactions cheap), doesn't discredit the analogy. If someone wants to take out the high speed train from Amsterdam to Paris, he can buy all the train tickets. It's doable, and effectively a DOS attack preventing any other people from using the train. If anything, it shows my analogy is a correct one.

Not there yet.

When you broadcast a tx, where you "pay", say, 1 satoshi per byte, what you are *really* doing is that you are stating your intention that if you get included in some block then you will pay the said amount.

You don't actually pay anything beforehand. The payment is only done upon inclusion. If you get the service, you get paid. If someone else pays more than you, then HE gets it, not you. In that scenario, where he got in and you didn't, the only party paying is him, not you. You haven't paid anything. You only said that you were willing to pay a trivial amount, which was less than him, and the miner said ok, you aren't paying me that much, so I'm going to process that other guy who pays me more.


Quote
I can imagine that a flood of tx without fee can be considered spam. But nowadays, only mining pools use zero fee tx to payout their miners. There are hardly any zero fee tx issued otherwise. (800 in the past 24 hours, source: https://bitcoinfees.21.co/ ) But if a tx carries a fee, how to decide if it's spam or not? What is your definition of spam?

Likewise, remember, you haven't paid anything until inclusion. You are just broadcasting your intentions, for free.

In this sense, broadcasting a billion txs and "paying a fee" of 1 satoshi/byte doesn't mean anything. The broadcasting of this billion txs is free. If a few thousands of these txs go in, if at all, I may have to pay 1 satoshi/byte.

This is precisely why the mempool backlog is a useless metric. It could be 50 gigabytes of backlogged txs, which even the sender isn't really expecting to get included.


Personally, I'm not anxious for all that spam to be "cleared" by getting included in the blockchain.

It would be like having the street outside your house filled with trash and considering collecting them inside your house to "clean the street".

Nice analogy, it illustrates how we disagree. Going with the trash theme, IMO the current setup is akin to saying everything people throw away should be dumped and never touched again. Never mind that due to changing market conditions and innovation, some trash may actually be valuable to people if they can get their hands on it - recycling metals for example.

If you remove, by dictate, the ability to process "trash" beyond some arbitrary treshold, you remove the markets ability to correctly value that "trash".

Well, physical garbage do tend to have more valuable stuff in them compared to digital...

Anyway, in the above analogy, the street garbage is the mempool, and your house is the blockchain. Now, the mempool can be spammed A LOT because it is practically free to do so (broadcasting intentions to get included, either for free, or with a trivial fee) and you can decide whether you will do what the spammer wants, or not.

The market always has an ability to value the trash: If the sender of the tx doesn't care for his tx (broadcasting zero and near-zero cost txs) he is betraying his intentions. When you see "blocks are full" and fees topping out at 4-5-6 cents for 1st block inclusion, without activating any serious fee competition, you know right away what is going on: Junk transactions are flowing in.

If, say, I want to send my coins to an exchange and sell right away there are various costs:

-Exchange commissions
-Bank wire/withdrawal costs
-Conversion fees (for non-$ users)

...which might add up to tens of dollars. Now why would I be "cheap" when I'm sending the tx?... to save what? 0.03$?
AlexGR
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March 12, 2016, 01:27:27 AM

how are miners going to get paid when block reward  goes away?

tx fees

Quote
years ago we just kinda shrugged this off saying "one day there will be several orders of magnitude more TX and the fees will pay the miners"

at 1 or 2 MB there's just no way fees can replace block reward.

By the time of the next 2-3-4 halvings, our blocksize limits could be in the hundreds of megabytes.
aminorex
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March 12, 2016, 01:34:54 AM

By the time of the next 2-3-4 halvings, our blocksize limits could be in the hundreds of megabytes.
given that phones will have terabytes of non-volatile nanosecond latency memory by then, it shouldn't be a problem.  but, competing with low-latency centralized settlement while surviving kyc/aml will be a challenge before 2020. 
AlexGR
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March 12, 2016, 01:40:54 AM

By the time of the next 2-3-4 halvings, our blocksize limits could be in the hundreds of megabytes.
given that phones will have terabytes of non-volatile nanosecond latency memory by then, it shouldn't be a problem.  but, competing with low-latency centralized settlement while surviving kyc/aml will be a challenge before 2020. 

I'm pretty sure there'll be pleeeenty of challenges till 2020 Cheesy
adamstgBit
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March 12, 2016, 01:51:57 AM

By the time of the next 2-3-4 halvings, our blocksize limits could be in the hundreds of megabytes.
given that phones will have terabytes of non-volatile nanosecond latency memory by then, it shouldn't be a problem.  but, competing with low-latency centralized settlement while surviving kyc/aml will be a challenge before 2020. 

I'm pretty sure there'll be pleeeenty of challenges till 2020 Cheesy
like reaching "widespread consensus" for 2MB in 2017
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March 12, 2016, 02:00:31 AM

Coin



Explanation
Mrpumperitis
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March 12, 2016, 02:07:14 AM


https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcements/?id=93

( TOLD U SO,LOL, AFTER HOMESTEAD)
adamstgBit
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March 12, 2016, 02:09:13 AM

thats cool...
UngratefulTony
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March 12, 2016, 02:20:10 AM

motherofgod.jpg

https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/announcements/?id=93
https://i.imgur.com/ZJ6cOaL.png

The market is speaking to you subservient miners. Are you listening?
Yakamoto
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March 12, 2016, 02:23:21 AM

Not surprising, I was wondering when ETH was finally going to get fiat exchanges open.

This is interesting news, and I really want to see where it goes. It seems like ETH keeps gaining momentum.
adamstgBit
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March 12, 2016, 02:25:45 AM

i think we can expect a 0.06BTC ETH prices by monday
adamstgBit
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March 12, 2016, 02:27:24 AM

and then the comman folk are going to hear about ETH and how its "better" then bitcoin and they will think investing in ETH is like investing in bitcoin in 2011 and then BAM 2BTC/ ETH pricess  Grin
iCEBREAKER
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March 12, 2016, 02:28:15 AM

‘Pawn Stars’ figure jailed in Vegas on weapon, drug charges

Bearish.   Sad

#PrayForChumlee
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March 12, 2016, 02:29:20 AM

and then the comman folk are going to hear about ETH and how its "better" then bitcoin and they will think investing in ETH is like investing in bitcoin in 2011 and then BAM 2BTC/ ETH pricess  Grin
Potentially that can happen, but ETH is heavily based on speculation right now, to my knowledge. There aren't many ways that ETH is better, and it primarily benefits coders, not average people.

We'll watch and see where it goes, but I am very skeptical that there will be anything near 1BTC/ETH. Even that seems a bit too high.
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March 12, 2016, 02:30:43 AM

Holy Sh*t Is right lol.... This is already fairing well for the coin. OF course I am mining this algo, which is the best ever  Grin
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