Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Well that was interesting. West doesn't want to move up without a fight

Not really a surprise. West is on the wrong side of history on many occasions.

After several days of synchronized exchange price movement, I see that we are again getting a bit of exchange price  variation  1 or 2 % may be o.k... , but I think that 3% or more variance causes some skepticism from other exchanges.. and none of the other exchanges wants to attempt to follow an exchange leading by 3% or more (and a couple weeks ago, Chinese exchanges had more than a 10% premium over various "western" exchanges), and then if they follow a price premium exchange they run a decent risk of getting dumped upon because they are following something that is not really pushed with support from within their exchange rather than having some kind of more sustainable pump.

[USB-S]

Looks like we found resistance.


Now Lets see if we are able to consolidate or face slow downtrend where all the enthusiast will buybuy.  

There is no such thing as a slow downtrend. Look at 2h-1day charts, we either go vertically green or vertically red. Until we do either, we're going to enjoy this sideways action, calm before the storm.

[TReano]

Looks like we found resistance.


Now Lets see if we are able to consolidate or face slow downtrend where all the enthusiast will buybuy. 

there isn't such thing as a slow downtrend. Look at 2h-1day charts, we either go vertically green or vertically red. Until we do either, we're going to enjoy this sideways action, calm before the storm.

ofc there can be a shortterm downtrend with lower lows... Why shouldn't there be such thing...

It's actually pretty normal once you peak in a bullish parabolic move.. People will try to catch the bottom every time and it will bounce up but eventually create a lower low where the former bottom picker will close at a minor lose/ reopen a new long...

Just take a look at how the big the last "moon" move worked out. Everybody was fomoing and trying to chase the trend after we peaked at 1200$ but eventually we retraced the complete move over 2 years.

I am not calling any tops here or even a new bear trend. You can't predict the future anyway. If it would be crystal clear that we would go to 1200$ we would already be there and not get resistance below 600$. You also have to keep in mind that the last moon was with much less coins in circulation. Also there was almost no leverage trading or short trading. This will definitely make a giant move like back then less likely. Not Impossible ofc...

[becoin]

ofc there can be a shortterm downtrend with lower lows... Why shouldn't there be such thing...

Because the number of people that want to have at least 1 bitcoin is increasing in geometric progression every day!

[JayJuanGee]

Looks like we found resistance.


Now Lets see if we are able to consolidate or face slow downtrend where all the enthusiast will buybuy. 

You are calling this way too soon.


We have a little bit of price stagnation for a couple of days and you are calling that "resistance?"

if you had never noticed, BTC price action is frequently with periods of high activity and lulls for a couple of days or more.... there will be movements and corrections... and really we remain on an upward trajectory, for the moment, even though currently, we are experiencing a kind of lull.. and all of this on relatively mediocre trade volume. 

Furthermore, sometimes on the weekend there will be a lull in BTC trading action for 1 or 2 days, and I am not sure if this lull is on purpose, but it does make sense to potentially preserve some of your battle capital (fiat in your trading account) until towards the end of the weekend rather than attempting to blow it all early in the weekend.  At the end of the weekend, you have a pretty decent sense of your own quantity of fiat and you have a pretty decent sense that quite a few others will be able to come in with weekday reinforcements of additional fiat.

So essentially, we are in a bit of a wait and see period regarding the price direction and regarding whether there is going to be significant resistance at $600.  At the moment, I am not recognizing $600 resistance as being considerable.. but yeah we could be in for some major surprises if some whales are holding hidden BTC and want to risk selling at this price. 

Based on recent BTC price performance and the level of trade volume (seems fairly mediocre), which to me means that this price trend could carry fairly easily into the upper $600s without a lot of effort, and may even carry into the upper $700s before any kind of meaningful battle may begin....

I would be considerably surprised if we were to travel passed $800 on this run without some kind of significant price battle (and correction), and we all know what is fairly likely to happen once we get significantly into the $800s..... (FOMO, new ATH... blah blah blah) so I am fairly certain that bears,  financial shills and even some governmental entities would want to put up a decent attempt at resisting to prevent BTC prices from getting that high... although some of them may be so fucking distracted by ETH and "blockchain" bullshit that they do not recognize the actual power of the real BTC infrastructure that has been created.. got a lot of developers and investors to thank for that.. in spite of the previous XT/Classical sabotage efforts...

[zimmah]

I actually don't trade Bitcoin anymore because it's not volatile enough

lol?

on a regular day you might see a top of $500 and a bottom of $490 for example

that's only $10 difference on $500 which is a small difference (2%) and it's hard to make profit from that, especially after fees. And a lot of the time the price doesn't even reach the daily top or bottom so the spread is even less.

Then change the exchange???  For example there are some with no transaction fees. ( but they might require more paperwork and might not be so anonymous )

it's not even worth the risk of trading for a profit that small. Not even with 0 fees.

Well dunno ... but for example I have a legal right to criminal prosecution of the owners of the exchange that I do my trading on. Usually this happens when you are from the same country and especially if you are from the European Union or US.

And I did made 25% of my total bitcoin for this year in bitcoin ... and the fiat is almost double since I had my coins bought when it was 380$ ... I regret a bit not buying when it was 200$ .. I would have managed to make 10k euro's very quickly ... but I will be pleased with the future if I keep my +10% portfolio monthly increase!
But I have no transaction fees.. but I have a greater tax percentages when I pull my coins or fiat out of the exchange or place them in to the exchange. That's the only big bad mojo ... and another would be the low volumes for now. But from my analysis the exchange has an algorithm that makes good profits so I'm assured that all will be fine.

it's not even about stealing, it's about trading itself being risky.

you never know for sure if the price goes up or down, and if you predict wrong, you lose money. And with such small swings, it is too much risk and not worth your time or the risk.

Risking $500 to make $2 is a stupid idea.

Even if you bet right 200 times, if you bet wrong just once you lose all your profit.

It's just not worth it.

[zimmah]

Looks like we found resistance.


Now Lets see if we are able to consolidate or face slow downtrend where all the enthusiast will buybuy. 

You are calling this way too soon.


We have a little bit of price stagnation for a couple of days and you are calling that "resistance?"

if you had never noticed, BTC price action is frequently with periods of high activity and lulls for a couple of days or more.... there will be movements and corrections... and really we remain on an upward trajectory, for the moment, even though currently, we are experiencing a kind of lull.. and all of this on relatively mediocre trade volume. 

Furthermore, sometimes on the weekend there will be a lull in BTC trading action for 1 or 2 days, and I am not sure if this lull is on purpose, but it does make sense to potentially preserve some of your battle capital (fiat in your trading account) until towards the end of the weekend rather than attempting to blow it all early in the weekend.  At the end of the weekend, you have a pretty decent sense of your own quantity of fiat and you have a pretty decent sense that quite a few others will be able to come in with weekday reinforcements of additional fiat.

So essentially, we are in a bit of a wait and see period regarding the price direction and regarding whether there is going to be significant resistance at $600.  At the moment, I am not recognizing $600 resistance as being considerable.. but yeah we could be in for some major surprises if some whales are holding hidden BTC and want to risk selling at this price. 

Based on recent BTC price performance and the level of trade volume (seems fairly mediocre), which to me means that this price trend could carry fairly easily into the upper $600s without a lot of effort, and may even carry into the upper $700s before any kind of meaningful battle may begin....

I would be considerably surprised if we were to travel passed $800 on this run without some kind of significant price battle (and correction), and we all know what is fairly likely to happen once we get significantly into the $800s..... (FOMO, new ATH... blah blah blah) so I am fairly certain that bears,  financial shills and even some governmental entities would want to put up a decent attempt at resisting to prevent BTC prices from getting that high... although some of them may be so fucking distracted by ETH and "blockchain" bullshit that they do not recognize the actual power of the real BTC infrastructure that has been created.. got a lot of developers and investors to thank for that.. in spite of the previous XT/Classical sabotage efforts...

[Ted E. Bare]

Almost no one is willing to sell.

[Assmaster2000]

4. Why would Chinese commies not want to sell beetcoin tokens, made out of thin air and surplus electricity, into IRL American $$$?

It's not like "IRL American $$$" don't come into existence from ...thin air. Post-gold-standard $$$ are a paper scam.

At least btcs are backed by energy and other mining costs.

You don't understand the meaning of the word "backed," as it applies to currency. You share this fundamental misunderstanding with many intrepid investors on these fora. Let me give you an analogy:
If I went out to a nice dinner last night, and spent $200, this does not mean that, when I make #2 this morning, my poop is backed by $200 it cost me to produce it. My poop's not backed by anything. To nearly everyone, my poop is as worthless as it would have been if i ate a Mc.D's Happy Meal, or a bowl of rice.

"I never thought of it that way," you may be saying to yourself right about now. "Are you telling me that I shouldn't buy poo, no matter how hard someone worked to produce it?!"
"Now you're starting to understand," I'd approvingly answer.

...Alas, that's but a rose-tinted dream of mine. You'll never grasp these basic truths, ones which are obvious to most 3-yr.-olds

$9 or even $10 billion marketcap is nearlly pennies in today's world.

It's a very tiny marketcap really.

True. If ETH continues performing as well as it did in the first half of 2016, it will surpass it by 2017. By a wide margin

O.k.  Assmaster... at this price point, if you are trying to figure out where to put your life savings of $50,000, and your three investment options are dollars, bitcoin and ethereum.  If your timeline is 5 years and then you will gain access to your investment, how you going to apportion that?  

I would probably put 95% in bitcoin 4% in ethereum and 1% in dollars [snip]
 

And that's why you'll forever be a pauper. SFYL

[JayJuanGee]

I actually don't trade Bitcoin anymore because it's not volatile enough

lol?

on a regular day you might see a top of $500 and a bottom of $490 for example

that's only $10 difference on $500 which is a small difference (2%) and it's hard to make profit from that, especially after fees. And a lot of the time the price doesn't even reach the daily top or bottom so the spread is even less.

Then change the exchange???  For example there are some with no transaction fees. ( but they might require more paperwork and might not be so anonymous )

it's not even worth the risk of trading for a profit that small. Not even with 0 fees.

Well dunno ... but for example I have a legal right to criminal prosecution of the owners of the exchange that I do my trading on. Usually this happens when you are from the same country and especially if you are from the European Union or US.

And I did made 25% of my total bitcoin for this year in bitcoin ... and the fiat is almost double since I had my coins bought when it was 380$ ... I regret a bit not buying when it was 200$ .. I would have managed to make 10k euro's very quickly ... but I will be pleased with the future if I keep my +10% portfolio monthly increase!
But I have no transaction fees.. but I have a greater tax percentages when I pull my coins or fiat out of the exchange or place them in to the exchange. That's the only big bad mojo ... and another would be the low volumes for now. But from my analysis the exchange has an algorithm that makes good profits so I'm assured that all will be fine.

it's not even about stealing, it's about trading itself being risky.

you never know for sure if the price goes up or down, and if you predict wrong, you lose money. And with such small swings, it is too much risk and not worth your time or the risk.

Risking $500 to make $2 is a stupid idea.

Even if you bet right 200 times, if you bet wrong just once you lose all your profit.

It's just not worth it.

I believe that you are describing an accurate trading risk in which people can lose a lot of money and that assessment especially applies with folks who subscribe to a kind of "balls to the walls" or even a leveraging philosophy of trading... which are like forms of gambling.

You gotta have some pretty advanced techniques if you are going to invest with these methods and to be profitable in the long run because manipulation and repeated playing is going to take a way the luck factor.


I think that there are a lot of ways to devise trading strategies that play out differently in the long run, and some of those strategies will be statistically and probably losers and some will be winners. 


With an apparently likely appreciating asset, such as bitcoin, there are likely a large number of trading strategies that can be profitable without either using employing a balls to the walls ideology or employing leveraging... or alternatively HODL strategies that people also like to employ, which the HODL strategy is likely much better than balls to the walls trading strategies.

[Assmaster2000]

Almost no one is willing to sell.

Clearly someone is.

[Ted E. Bare]

That's nothing. You're probably new to bitcoin. Welcome.

[JayJuanGee]

$9 or even $10 billion marketcap is nearlly pennies in today's world.

It's a very tiny marketcap really.

True. If ETH continues performing as well as it did in the first half of 2016, it will surpass it by 2017. By a wide margin

O.k.  Assmaster... at this price point, if you are trying to figure out where to put your life savings of $50,000, and your three investment options are dollars, bitcoin and ethereum.  If your timeline is 5 years and then you will gain access to your investment, how you going to apportion that?  

I would probably put 95% in bitcoin 4% in ethereum and 1% in dollars [snip]
 

And that's why you'll forever be a pauper. SFYL

Yes, I attempted to provide an off the cuff substantive response in order to attempt to make your trolling bullshit relevant to considerations that folks may be undertaking, when they look at bitcoin versus ETH today... and not looking at short term history.  You completely avoided addressing the issue because it seems that even you don't believe the bullshit that you are spouting out... and you are actually unwilling or unable to back up your words with any kind of potentially meaningful specifics.    

Should any one be surprised?    



NOT  

[Assmaster2000]

That's nothing. You're probably new to bitcoin. Welcome.

@JayJuanGee: You're living under a misguided assumption that your typings warrant anything but a cursory FU. You're annoying, you're lazy, you rudely spew out on these pages all the milky vomitus that collected in your distempered mind, you twisted abomination.

"If I had more time, I would have written a shorter letter." --brainyquote.com

[DaRude]

The market is behaving funny. It's as if someone is trying to corner in 

[JayJuanGee]

The market is behaving funny. It's as if someone is trying to corner in 

O.k.  I will bite.  What is "corner in"?

Is that another way of saying manipulation?   Or is that a way of saying inability to get passed resistance?

We already realize that sometimes consolidation involves an attempt at a kind of holding pattern until such point that it cannot be held in the consolidation range.  That's no kind of new phenomenon.

[bitebits]

R0ACH ofc it's going to $1200, but when?

That question is a classic one (points at signature). Seems you figured out the first most important part  .

[DaRude]

The market is behaving funny. It's as if someone is trying to corner in 

O.k.  I will bite.  What is "corner in"?

Is that another way of saying manipulation?   Or is that a way of saying inability to get passed resistance?

We already realize that sometimes consolidation involves an attempt at a kind of holding pattern until such point that it cannot be held in the consolidation range.  That's no kind of new phenomenon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market

Someone is digging their feet in? Playing both sides of the market to keep the price in a certain range?

[JayJuanGee]

The market is behaving funny. It's as if someone is trying to corner in  

O.k.  I will bite.  What is "corner in"?

Is that another way of saying manipulation?   Or is that a way of saying inability to get passed resistance?

We already realize that sometimes consolidation involves an attempt at a kind of holding pattern until such point that it cannot be held in the consolidation range.  That's no kind of new phenomenon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornering_the_market

Someone is digging their feet in? Playing both sides of the market to keep the price in a certain range?

O.k. thanks for that explanation..

Hey DaRude.  What's an overview of your personal bitcoin related story?    Did you start buying bitcoins around the time of your registration in March 2013?  What kind of view did you hold?  Did your thinking evolve over the past few years?  Did you own any bitcoin's during either or both of the 2013 price surges?

[Ted E. Bare]

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