Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

I enjoy following the bitcoinchannel.com buy. I can read candlesticks fairly well but was never much into looking at the market strength (buys and sells) as a whole - I know, bad, partial picture but the candlesticks and a few indicators always did me well.

Anyway, looking at the market on clarkmoody's site:

Looking for that 100k volume on the buy and sell side - It just moved off $70 on the buy to $65 (a bit bearish). The sell side is on $220 at 100k - keep an eye on that. Total sales have been creeping up since post crash (I don't have the exact dates as have been following it only a couple of times a week.)

Some key figures on the buy and sell side ($70 buy and $300 sell) show that more sellers are coming in at those levels and the buyers are dropping. It is not a huge number so I tend to agree with the bitcoinchannel.com guy that short term things look bearish. Nothing that would make me sell my long term stash.

Can anyone add anything here as it's the part I'm still learning...  

IAS

Ah yes, the memories of "The WALL", lol. Wouldn't it be nice to go back in time and buy BTC at $65???
Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.    eheheh
Memory lane...

[European Central Bank]

Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.    eheheh
Memory lane...

What were your options around then? I thought there was always the OTC channel and the new liberty standard place. Maybe it was gone by then. I dunno.

[Its About Sharing]

Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.    eheheh
Memory lane...

What were your options around then? I thought there was always the OTC channel and the new liberty standard place. Maybe it was gone by then. I dunno.

I should preface that by saying I hadn't yet read the white paper. I was going off intuition to be honest. I was not into Crytpo before that (just trading and computer work).
So, I did a few searches and it just seemed like a lot of work, wasn't sure about wiring money to GOX.
And then the price was at $1 and I thought "How can a digital money be equal to a dollar?" LOL
So, my ignorance "cost" me but that white paper made a light go off in my head.

Before that moment I was a relatively early internet employee during the bubble. At that time I saw the internet as a big old Black Swann.
When I came across that white paper, I saw it as a Black Swann on steroids.

Its about sharing

[Syke]

And then the price was at $1 and I thought "How can a digital money be equal to a dollar?" LOL

Few people remember reaching "parity". That was pretty epic. Now look where we are, and we're nowhere near the top. Someone getting in now is still an early-adopter.

[keats3]

Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.    eheheh
Memory lane...

What were your options around then? I thought there was always the OTC channel and the new liberty standard place. Maybe it was gone by then. I dunno.

I should preface that by saying I hadn't yet read the white paper. I was going off intuition to be honest. I was not into Crytpo before that (just trading and computer work).
So, I did a few searches and it just seemed like a lot of work, wasn't sure about wiring money to GOX.
And then the price was at $1 and I thought "How can a digital money be equal to a dollar?" LOL
So, my ignorance "cost" me but that white paper made a light go off in my head.

Before that moment I was a relatively early internet employee during the bubble. At that time I saw the internet as a big old Black Swann.
When I came across that white paper, I saw it as a Black Swann on steroids.

Its about sharing

If I recall correctly there was a massive dump back down to .50 (cents) after it rallied to $2, so you might have panicked and dumped for less than you paid for if you had bought at one dollar. Nobody could have dreamed these prices were possible back then.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.    eheheh
Memory lane...

What were your options around then? I thought there was always the OTC channel and the new liberty standard place. Maybe it was gone by then. I dunno.

I should preface that by saying I hadn't yet read the white paper. I was going off intuition to be honest. I was not into Crytpo before that (just trading and computer work).
So, I did a few searches and it just seemed like a lot of work, wasn't sure about wiring money to GOX.
And then the price was at $1 and I thought "How can a digital money be equal to a dollar?" LOL
So, my ignorance "cost" me but that white paper made a light go off in my head.

Before that moment I was a relatively early internet employee during the bubble. At that time I saw the internet as a big old Black Swann.
When I came across that white paper, I saw it as a Black Swann on steroids.

Its about sharing

Seems quite often that when people encounter bitcoin for the first time, they think it sounds too good to be true, and they come up with a reason why it won't work.  A few years later, when they encounter it again, they are more likely to go for it.  That promises for the next bubble given the widespread media coverage in 2013  .  

I am still bearish for the very short term (next day or 2) though.

[JayJuanGee]

Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.    eheheh
Memory lane...

What were your options around then? I thought there was always the OTC channel and the new liberty standard place. Maybe it was gone by then. I dunno.

My have times changed in the past couple of years, especially.. 


NOT only are there a multitude of ways in and out in the west, there are a lot of less developed locations that have a multitude of ways in and out, as well, and even in the place that don't have a lot of options there are more and more Local bitcoin avenues developing and even possibilities for direct transactions at bitcoin meet-ups - because a broader segment of the population (no where near mass adoption) are holding BTC through wallet apps such as blockchain.info... and Bitcoin ATMs have proliferated pretty well, too (even though their rates may be a bit higher - frequently a 5% to 10% premium from my understanding)

[Its About Sharing]

And then the price was at $1 and I thought "How can a digital money be equal to a dollar?" LOL

Few people remember reaching "parity". That was pretty epic. Now look where we are, and we're nowhere near the top. Someone getting in now is still an early-adopter.

I totally agree with you regarding "early adopter". But why? AT $700? Because if BTC isn't made illegal or the like, I just can't see it NOT being a FIAT vacuum cleaner.
I think the event horizon for BTC is in the months. We really can't see past that. If a country adopts BTC or the like (even as only a reserve currency), it will be over $10,000
in a heartbeat. If the Chinese don't let up on buying and the government doesn't let up on capital controls and inflation, it is at $10,000.
On and on, there are just so many HUGE variables that make people buying into Bitcoin at $700, early-adopters.

[Its About Sharing]

Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.    eheheh
Memory lane...

What were your options around then? I thought there was always the OTC channel and the new liberty standard place. Maybe it was gone by then. I dunno.

I should preface that by saying I hadn't yet read the white paper. I was going off intuition to be honest. I was not into Crytpo before that (just trading and computer work).
So, I did a few searches and it just seemed like a lot of work, wasn't sure about wiring money to GOX.
And then the price was at $1 and I thought "How can a digital money be equal to a dollar?" LOL
So, my ignorance "cost" me but that white paper made a light go off in my head.

Before that moment I was a relatively early internet employee during the bubble. At that time I saw the internet as a big old Black Swann.
When I came across that white paper, I saw it as a Black Swann on steroids.

Its about sharing

Seems quite often that when people encounter bitcoin for the first time, they think it sounds too good to be true, and they come up with a reason why it won't work.  A few years later, when they encounter it again, they are more likely to go for it.  That promises for the next bubble given the widespread media coverage in 2013  .  

I am still bearish for the very short term (next day or 2) though.

Yeah, Black Swan's are hard to spot. The internet might have been a lot easier to see. I mean the internet was freedom of information and Bitcoin is a step in the direction of freedom with value transfer. It isn't THE answer, but a step in the right direction.

If we see $10,000 per BTC this year, I would not at all be shocked.

The strange thing is, due to my background in computer science, I get to talk to quite a few relatively intelligent IT guys. 95% of them just don't get it. They understand tech but they can't wrap their heads around it. Trading stocks gave me another perspective and I find that stock traders might take a chance on BTC for obvious reasons, but understanding it is not one of them.

And these same people who wouldn't buy at $200 because it was too high, won't buy at $10,000 just like they won't buy now. It is almost like there is a stop sign in that part of the brain.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Yeah, Black Swan's are hard to spot. The internet might have been a lot easier to see. I mean the internet was freedom of information and Bitcoin is a step in the direction of freedom with value transfer. It isn't THE answer, but a step in the right direction.

If we see $10,000 per BTC this year, I would not at all be shocked.

The strange thing is, due to my background in computer science, I get to talk to quite a few relatively intelligent IT guys. 95% of them just don't get it. They understand tech but they can't wrap their heads around it. Trading stocks gave me another perspective and I find that stock traders might take a chance on BTC for obvious reasons, but understanding it is not one of them.

And these same people who wouldn't buy at $200 because it was too high, won't buy at $10,000 just like they won't buy now. It is almost like there is a stop sign in that part of the brain.

Yeah, not that many people that like new technologies and have an understanding of the money system.  Plus, people hang on to what is "normal" to them.  Luckily, the longer bitcoin exists and is mentioned in the news or by relatives, the more "normal" it will become for them.

[JimboToronto]

Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.  

I hear you. I came later when they were $15. By the time I'd read up and determined they weren't a scam they were $30 but I couldn't find a place to buy some. By the time I did, I paid $68 (CAD) per.

Best  money I ever spent though.

[toknormal]

I just can't see it NOT being a FIAT vacuum cleaner.

Don't worry, I don't think Bitcoin will ever be a "fiat vacum cleaner". Think of it this way....

There are 2 general types of "money" needed by advanced economies. 1 type that keeps prices stable (for trading) and one type that keeps the supply fixed (for store of value). The one that keeps prices stable is simply a way to denominate trades - it isn't actually "money" in the sense of being a bearer token like commodities, precious metals or cryptocurrencies. On many websites now you can even choose how to denominate your trade - Canadian Dollars, $USD, EUR, whatever.

Those trading currencies need to have a variable supply - like the USD. A fractional reserve system which inflates and contracts according to liquidity requirements. If you don't have that and use a fixed supply currency like Bitcoin for trading then half the businesses in the world will go bust and the other half will make supernormal profits which are not sustainable.

So I don't see bitcoin ever being used as a trading currency en masse. (You don't see prices ever being denominated in gold and neither did we when there was a gold standard). Bitcoin is a base asset which can be used to "back" trading currencies for example or facilitate the capitalisation of whatever markets, but I think prices will still continue to be denominated in prevailing regional currencies.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

I just can't see it NOT being a FIAT vacuum cleaner.

Don't worry, I don't think Bitcoin will ever be a "fiat vacum cleaner". Think of it this way....

There are 2 general types of "money" needed by advanced economies. 1 type that keeps prices stable (for trading) and one type that keeps the supply fixed (for store of value). The one that keeps prices stable is simply a way to denominate trades - it isn't actually "money" in the sense of being a bearer token like commodities, precious metals or cryptocurrencies. On many websites now you can even choose how to denominate your trade - Canadian Dollars, $USD, EUR, whatever.

Those trading currencies need to have a variable supply - like the USD. A fractional reserve system which inflates and contracts according to liquidity requirements. If you don't have that and use a fixed supply currency like Bitcoin for trading then half the businesses in the world will go bust and the other half will make supernormal profits which are not sustainable.

So I don't see bitcoin ever being used as a trading currency en masse. (You don't see prices ever being denominated in gold and neither did we when there was a gold standard). Bitcoin is a base asset which can be used to "back" trading currencies for example or facilitate the capitalisation of whatever markets, but I think prices will still continue to be denominated in prevailing regional currencies.

Why would someone buy USD when BTC is ubiquitously used in the future, because they want their currency to depreciate to gain stability?  That makes no sense.  Bitcoin will be stable (non-volatile) enough for commerce.

[adamstgBit]

Oh, and when I found it at .50 (cents), I couldn't find a place to buy some.    eheheh
Memory lane...

What were your options around then? I thought there was always the OTC channel and the new liberty standard place. Maybe it was gone by then. I dunno.

I should preface that by saying I hadn't yet read the white paper. I was going off intuition to be honest. I was not into Crytpo before that (just trading and computer work).
So, I did a few searches and it just seemed like a lot of work, wasn't sure about wiring money to GOX.
And then the price was at $1 and I thought "How can a digital money be equal to a dollar?" LOL
So, my ignorance "cost" me but that white paper made a light go off in my head.

Before that moment I was a relatively early internet employee during the bubble. At that time I saw the internet as a big old Black Swann.
When I came across that white paper, I saw it as a Black Swann on steroids.

Its about sharing

Seems quite often that when people encounter bitcoin for the first time, they think it sounds too good to be true, and they come up with a reason why it won't work.  A few years later, when they encounter it again, they are more likely to go for it.  That promises for the next bubble given the widespread media coverage in 2013  .  

I am still bearish for the very short term (next day or 2) though.

Yeah, Black Swan's are hard to spot. The internet might have been a lot easier to see. I mean the internet was freedom of information and Bitcoin is a step in the direction of freedom with value transfer. It isn't THE answer, but a step in the right direction.

If we see $10,000 per BTC this year, I would not at all be shocked.

The strange thing is, due to my background in computer science, I get to talk to quite a few relatively intelligent IT guys. 95% of them just don't get it. They understand tech but they can't wrap their heads around it. Trading stocks gave me another perspective and I find that stock traders might take a chance on BTC for obvious reasons, but understanding it is not one of them.

And these same people who wouldn't buy at $200 because it was too high, won't buy at $10,000 just like they won't buy now. It is almost like there is a stop sign in that part of the brain.

its the normalcy bias at play.

poeple have always used dollars to buy and sell shit
you tell them bitcoin aims to displace the dollar, there normalcy bias kicks in and no amount of logic can convince them that things can and will change.
i think its fairly obvious that things MUST change, its a technical impossibility that fiat and the USD will be the reserve currency for ever.
but most poeple can't accept that, in their minds it has always been the USD and it always will be.
they can understand and even appreciate the idea behind bitcoin, but they can't accept that it has any chance of being anything more than a fun experiment.
their close mindedness will make them be part of the 99% that miss out being an early adapter.

these people might encounter bitcoin has a form of payment for there next IT job.
they will accept the job once they realize how easy it is to convert between BTC and Fiat.
they might even start spending some BTC directly for some neweggs stuff sometimes.
they might even see there BTC hodl value during a high inflation year ( -5% on the USD  in 2017? maybe!)
but STILL they will not believe BTC can displace their USD
because their brain strongly believes that because somthing has always been it will always be.

[toknormal]

Why would someone buy USD when BTC is ubiquitously used in the future, because they want their currency to depreciate to gain stability?  That makes no sense

It does make sense. They would buy USD because they need it to faciliate trade of goods and services which are denominated in that currency. It doesn't depreciate fast enough to inhibit its use for trade. Any longer term holdings are invested so they don't lose value. Thats just how the world works - look back in history of 100 years. The $USD has depreciated massively - about 98% or something, yet it didn't inhibit the most monumental period of growth the world has seen in its existence.

It's right that fiat currencies should depreciate in value over time because their primary purpose is to facilitate trade and keep prices stable, not to store value (in the long term that is, obviously they need to be stable enough to store value in the short term).

Bitcoin will be stable (non-volatile) enough for commerce.

It won't be. It's academic. No fixed supply currency can be unless you have an economy that doesn't expand or contract in size. Also, if it was stable it wouldnt be doing its job. Many commentators criticise bitcoin for its volatility but it's that very volatility which indicates that it's successfully reflecting the balance of supply and demand for liquidity.

[adamstgBit]

Why would someone buy USD when BTC is ubiquitously used in the future, because they want their currency to depreciate to gain stability?  That makes no sense

It does make sense. They would buy USD because they need it to faciliate trade of goods and services which are denominated in that currency. It doesn't depreciate fast enough to inhibit its use for trade. Any longer term holdings are invested so they don't lose value. Thats just how the world works - look back in history of 100 years. The $USD has depreciated massively - about 98% or something, yet it didn't inhibit the most monumental period of growth the world has seen in its existence.

It's right that fiat currencies should depreciate in value over time because they're primary purpose is to facilitate trade and keep prices stable, not to store value (in the long term that is, obviously they need to be stable enough to store value in the short term).

Bitcoin will be stable (non-volatile) enough for commerce.

It won't be. It's academic. No fixed supply currency can be unless you have an economy that doesn't expand or contract in size. Also, if it was stable it wouldnt be doing its job. Many commentators criticise bitcoin for its volatility but it's that very volatility which indicates that it's successfully reflecting the balance of supply and demand.

you are assuming the BTC's value reflects Supply Vs Demand, and there for if the economy expands or contarts the value of each BTC MUST change too.
this is false.
because bitcoin reflects Supply Vs Demand Vs Speculation
right now speculation is driving prices higher
later Speculation will keep price stable  as everyone Speculates that the value will remain stable.
speculators will PRICE IN the world's economic ups and downs.


its actually quite easy to achieve and it will happen naturally.

here's a graph that will illustrate how  Supply Vs Demand Vs Speculation will mean very stable prices in the future.



the red is the value of a BTC considering supply vs deamnd
the orange is the value of a BTC considering supply vs demand vs speculation

[Ted E. Bare]

Judging by the amount of generic spam accounts the bears got trapped once again. Love it.

[podyx]

Judging by the amount of generic spam accounts the bears got trapped once again. Love it.

Heres to bears getting trapped

[savetherainforest]

LOL! ... nice! Good thing there are fast moderators here! ... What an amazing spam! ...\

-----------------------

695$ - BitStam/Finex

Y4630/705$ - Huobi

$700+ soon!

[toknormal]

you are assuming the BTC's value reflects Supply Vs Demand, and there for if the economy expands or contarts the value of each BTC MUST change too.
this is false

Well, I was really describing a hypothetical situation where something like bitcoin was the main trading currency in an economy. In that situation bitcoin wouldn't have a price because there would not be a dollar with which to price it.

Lets say the size of the economy is "GDP" Bitcoin turnover per year. In other words, every year an amount of goods and services to the value of GDP (measured in BTC) is exchanged.

For a given monetary velocity (the GDP divided by the coin supply, or how many times the entire coin supply circulates on average), the relationship between prices of goods and GDP is linear. That means if the economy grows by 10%, prices have to decrease by 10%. If it contracts by 10%, prices have to increase by 10%.

This cannot work - for the reason I outlined in a previous post. Business go bust due to manufacturing cycles not coming in on budget and all sorts of unpredictability which is why the fiat system works as it does. It gets round this problem by creating new liquidity as it's needed and extinguishing old liquidity as economic expansion catches up with monetary inflation.

Even if this were not to happen (through the banking / credit creation system), the free market would just find a way to do it itself via the creation of hedging derivatives (and in fact already does in the case of international trade).

Thats why I'm saying that there'll always be these two parallel and complimentary dimensions to the monetary system and that will still be the case even if bitcoin becomes a mainstream asset.