Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[savetherainforest]

666! euros ... We meet again!

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[adamstgBit]

let's assume miners have a terrible time adjusting to the reward drop, hash rate drops and bitcoin experiences longer than usual confirmation delays for 2 weeks.
do you as a speculator care about this?
can't we view this as bullish? not only has reward dropped, but for 2 weeks new blocks are coming in slower, less coins coming in slower.

[AlexGR]

let's assume miners have a terrible time adjusting to the reward drop, hash rate drops and bitcoin experiences longer than usual confirmation delays for 2 weeks.
do you as a speculator care about this?

We cared when it was 400$ a coin. It's 800'ish now. Meaning miners will be making pretty much the same money.

On the other hand, the inflationary effect of requiring 1.44mn USD per day to absorb inflation, is preserved.

Meaning that if the market needed 400$ x 3600 coins = 1.44mn USD just to maintain daily price, now it's kind of the same with 800$ x 1800 coins (=again 1.44mn USD to absorb daily supply).

[JayJuanGee]

let's assume miners have a terrible time adjusting to the reward drop, hash rate drops and bitcoin experiences longer than usual confirmation delays for 2 weeks.
do you as a speculator care about this?

We cared when it was 400$ a coin. It's 800'ish now. Meaning miners will be making pretty much the same money.

On the other hand, the inflationary effect of requiring 1.44mn USD per day to absorb inflation, is preserved.

Meaning that if the market needed 400$ x 3600 coins = 1.44mn USD just to maintain daily price, now it's kind of the same with 800$ x 1800 coins (=again 1.44mn USD to absorb daily supply).

Many of us recognized that the halvening causing a drop in the hashrate and therefore causing less security and incentive in the mining system and therefore a drop in the price was really bullshit and red herring kind of argument - especially in bitcoin, there has been a continuous speculative component regarding these kinds of price spikes occurring "some day", and even in the $200s miners were continuing to mine, whether profitable or not based on speculation regarding future prices...


Yeah, sure, if there had been a very prolonged period of $200 or even inability in bitcoin for the prices to significantly increase, at some point, little by little (and individually) miners would have begun to pull away and shut down their operations, etc etc.. (which would have caused some incentive for the remaining miners to stay in).  Anyhow, the whole argument regarding hashing dropping with halvening was like a low probability event - probably less than 10%, but more likely even quite lower than that.

But now that we see the price increase scenario playing out, the scenario should be more obvious, as AlexGR describes above... and additionally, they are going to continue to speculate and they are, individually, going to come to differing conclusions within their speculation, and to the extent that their speculation remains positive, the whole BTC infrastructure benefits from increased security and increased investment into bitcoin computing power.

[TERA]

Can someone explain how a marginally lowering hash rate actually impacts network security?  Is there a malicious entity out there that has been developing Peta hashes of power at the same rate as our miners and he's waiting to take over when a drop occurs?

[BitUsher]

Can someone explain how a marginally lowering hash rate actually impacts network security?  Is there a malicious entity out there that has been developing Peta hashes of power at the same rate as our miners and he's waiting to take over when a drop occurs?

The large miners are all well known so it would have to involve one of these 2 possibilities:

1) Chinese government targeting several large miners and forcing them under duress to 51% attack
2) Secret state government slowly hording miners and not turning them on while they accumulate slowly as to not raise suspicions from ASIC manufactures and than wait till a slight drop to 51% attack.

Both are extremely unlikely but 1) is more likely of the 2 possibilities and would force our nodes to have to HF the chain with one of many solutions. 2) extremely unlikely as states cannot keep secrets and a project of this magnitude would be very difficult to hide as it involves an extremely large facility with many employees.

Again , both are very unlikely, but we should def start taking steps to decentralize mining more.

[adamstgBit]

Welcome to the bitcoin rocket, I hope you enjoyed the train ride.
We will be departing Earth in:
5

[adamstgBit]

due to the limited seating in the rocket
we ask that wemon and children are allowed to be seated first

4

[TERA]

Calm down this launch prep is going to take days. Id like it if I could just chill tonight

[adamstgBit]

Calm down this launch prep is going to take days. Id like it if I could just chill tonight

Not to worry we have two other rockets named Segregate and Lighting which will depart shortly after this one.
if you wish to chill and wait for the next one voluntarily that would be much appreciated

3

[liquidiser]

Anyone else having issues reaching Poloniex?

same here.....

People scrambling to dump their shitcoins. Polo is great until, it aint... and when volume is high, it aint.

People still margin trade there though      

Looking at the markets everything except bitcoin is in a bloodbath. Everyone's dumping whatever they have for bitcoin because its doing its pre-halving warm up before it heads to the moon again. I could only half load the poloniex markets page, the chart wouldn't load for me.

[TERA]

Anyone else having issues reaching Poloniex?

same here.....

People scrambling to dump their shitcoins. Polo is great until, it aint... and when volume is high, it aint.

People still margin trade there though      

Looking at the markets everything except bitcoin is in a bloodbath. Everyone's dumping whatever they have for bitcoin because doing its pre-halving warm u before it heads to the moon again. I could only half load the poloniex markets page, the chart wouldn't load for me.

No its because the DAO was hacked

[adamstgBit]

As you saw earlier today Ether Rockets failed and millions died tragically due to engine failure
We would like to remind you that Bitcoin rockets are designed by the world's finest, with many safeguards in place, no other rocket system comes close to what we have achieved.

2

[TERA]

You're going to have to switch to a logarithmic countdown.

[podyx]

I just realized that despite how we dropped from 780 to 707 and then back to 757, today feels like a pretty calm day somehow. Anyone else feel like that?

[infofront]

Yeah, it seems like there's major support building at this level.

[600watt]

I just realized that despite how we dropped from 780 to 707 and then back to 757, today feels like a pretty calm day somehow. Anyone else feel like that?

you nailed it. exactly my thoughts.

[adamstgBit]

lock your visors and HODL, initial lift off can be bumpy.
We thank you for choosing bitcoin as your prefered way to blast yourself into space.
1

[rjclarke2000]

I just realized that despite how we dropped from 780 to 707 and then back to 757, today feels like a pretty calm day somehow. Anyone else feel like that?

In a strange way....Yep!

[TERA]

There was very impressive volume and support yesterday at 720 and this morning there was a huge wall but it's been pulled and now the order book looks like crap.