Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rjclarke2000]

There was very impressive volume and support yesterday at 720 and this morning there was a huge wall but it's been pulled and now the order book looks like crap.

So not being a trader this means what exactly?

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[Yakamoto]

I just realized that despite how we dropped from 780 to 707 and then back to 757, today feels like a pretty calm day somehow. Anyone else feel like that?

In a strange way....Yep!

The Bitcoin market is actually something that gives me a lot of confidence, in its own way, because of the ability for it to bounce back from any issues and the market always rebounds to where it was, even after a selloff.

The market has been calm, and it's a nice change from what we'd normally see.

[TERA]

There is not a lot of visible buy support and it could potentially flash crash on a low volume,  unless there are a lot of hidden orders.  However,  lately these books aren't nearly as reliable as they used to be and only serve as a partial indicator.

[infofront]

lock your visors and HODL, initial lift off can be bumpy.
We thank you for choosing bitcoin as your prefered way to blast yourself into space.
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[toknormal]

There is not a lot of visible buy support and it could potentially flash crash on a low volume,  unless there are a lot of hidden orders.  However,  lately these books aren't nearly as reliable as they used to be and only serve as a partial indicator.

Watch out - order books are just about the most unrealiable indicator known to man for guaging demand.

Here's how they work:

[1] - if the market thinks the price is going to rise (doesn't have to be bullish sentiment, just expecting a rise)

Then the bids will thin out and the asks will thicken. This is because real demand goes off-order-book since nobody wants to push the price up more than they have to by placing orders so buyers stay hidden since they are not confident of having their orders filled below the spread gap.

Meanwhile, sellers DO place their orders at a measured distance above the spread gap so that they catch any spikes which lets them instantly cycle back into the market minutes later having accumulated at the back end of the spike.

[2] - if the market thinks the price is going to fall

Then exactly the opposite happens. The bids fill up and the asks thin out because fear has set in and sellers are nervous of placing orders that chase away precious liquidity, so sellers stay off-order-book this time. Meanwhile, large bids get placed a reasonable distance below the spread gap to catch any major dumps. Those large bids are not from people wanting to buy into the market (i.e. they are not genuine demand). They are "quick buck" operators who will immediately sell into the rise that follows the spikey plunge.

If the order book is balance, then the market is neutral in terms of expectation.

You can see this in realtime on Huobi in Bitcoinwisdom. As soon as the slightest small bull rally takes off, massive asks get instantly placed at intervals above the price, even though the price is rising. Then they get pulled just as the price approaches when there's no longer enough of a spread gap to turn the trade around and get back in with an accumulation.

So don't think for a minute that because there's a lot of bids that means there's a lot of demand or because there's a lot if asks there's a lot of bears. It's more likely that the exact opposite applies.

[toknormal]

Here's an example. Look at Hobular bids right now - they're thin. Whereas asks are thick.

That agrees with the 1-hour and 2-hour chart trading momentum indicators which show that those ranges are nearing the end of their correction. So Hobular traders are watching those indicators and have started to anticipate a rise by placing asks, but at enough of a distance from the price to be able to get back in following an aggressive spike into the order book.

As the price rises, those walls will get pulled and moved up again so they remain within 'catching distance' of any spikes. However those sells will be buying straight back in whenever they catch a leaping fish.

[TERA]

I don't think the DAO hack is actually good for us. I think it's actually somehow related to yesterday btc dump based on some accumulation indicators,  and it could put an end to the recursive crypto hype machine where people suddenly thought crypto was going to replace the world's businesses by the end of the year.

[inca]

I don't think the DAO hack is actually good for us. I think it's actually somehow related to yesterday btc dump based on some accumulation indicators,  and it could put an end to the recursive crypto hype machine where people suddenly thought crypto was going to replace the world's businesses by the end of the year.

None of that reduces or alters the value proposition implied by bitcoin as a store of value and payment system.

It does mean eth is a sell for a bit until the dust settles.

The market is fickle. One push into the 8xx range from the Chinese and ethereum and the DAO is forgotten.

[adamstgBit]

there's a hidden billion dollar bidwall, i can FEEEEL it.

[Bavaria]

I just realized that despite how we dropped from 780 to 707 and then back to 757, today feels like a pretty calm day somehow. Anyone else feel like that?

The day is not calm for me. I wanted to buy more btc at $710 but did not have the time because of btc`s rapid bounce back to $750

[Torque]

I don't think the DAO hack is actually good for us. I think it's actually somehow related to yesterday btc dump based on some accumulation indicators,  and it could put an end to the recursive crypto hype machine where people suddenly thought crypto was going to replace the world's businesses by the end of the year.

Actually I think it's the opposite. I am hopeful that people have finally learned their lesson, that if they are going to buy some cryptocurrency during this run, or just to hold/invest in it long term (esp if they are new to all this), then there is only one such currency that was launched with the most pure/noble of intentions, considered the oldest, most secure and most bug-free (as can be after 7 years) at this point:

BITCOIN

The vast majority of alt coins really are just an attempt to lure gullible, greedy people away from consolidating into one solid, secure, global, decentralized cryptocurrency, which only slows Bitcoin's overall growth, maturity, and legitimacy.

[dumbfbrankings]

Now that ETH is hacked and dead... it is only a matter of hours before $800 is breached, for good.

Hope everyone remembered to pack their moon boots, we're going to need them.  

[Xiaoxiao]

there's a hidden billion dollar bidwall, i can FEEEEL it.

Why do you spread so much anti FUD?

[adamstgBit]

there's a hidden billion dollar bidwall, i can FEEEEL it.

Why do you spread so much anti FUD?

its fun.

[TERA]

I almost went all in on the dao crowdsale but made a last minute decision to cut that down to 3%

[calme]

I did go all in on DAO presale. Then sold to go long on BTC on leverage

[bitebits]

I just realized that despite how we dropped from 780 to 707 and then back to 757, today feels like a pretty calm day somehow. Anyone else feel like that?

The day is not calm for me. I wanted to buy more btc at $710 but did not have the time because of btc`s rapid bounce back to $750

Try again with EUR, I am sure you will still manage to get a few bits. Hurry!

[AlexGR]

Winter Weekend is coming...

Curious to see what happens by Monday morning.... 700, 800, 900, or even 1000+ ?...

[rjclarke2000]

My opinion based on absolutely nothing is that we will stay up in the high 7s this weekend. I got to this figure by knowing very little and having no facts or evidence to back it up.

I have been around here a long time lurking and posting useless waffle so don't go thinking this information may be correct in any way.

Thank you for reading this.

[JayJuanGee]

Can someone explain how a marginally lowering hash rate actually impacts network security?  Is there a malicious entity out there that has been developing Peta hashes of power at the same rate as our miners and he's waiting to take over when a drop occurs?

I think that is an additional reason why the speculation of a drop or even a halvening (likely worse case scenario) of the hash rate is a red herring subject (and FUCD spreading).   There seems to be so much extra cushionening in bitcoin's mining power that none of these purported hypothetical regarding dropping of hashrate even materially maters in the whole scheme of thing - even though it gives anti-bitcoiners and corporate shills nonsensical talking points that they can attempt to make sound logical and convincing.