I've been trying to compare 2014-2016 to 2011-2013 under the assumption that it's time to break ATH now but it doesn't make any sense and the structure/symmetry just isn't the same (not to mention the different timescales). In the 2011 chart you can see that bottom being reached to the left only 33% of the way through the chart. However in the 2015 chart you see bottom not being reached until 50% of the way through the chart and dragging on all the way through 75% of the way through the chart at roughly the same level. The bottoming out was much weaker and the jump to now supposedly try to challenge ATH is extremely sudden. Therefore, odds are most likely that we need another midterm consolidation of 6 months of to make an even chart. I see the following possibilities:
1. 25%: This is a trap and a sort of double top before another serious bear market.
2. 50%: There is going to be a 6 month consolidation phase before ATH is broken.
3. 25%: ATH is broken now.
I don't think we should worry if the top/bottom ratio or the timing (this cycle is a lot more drawn out) is different than in the 2011 bubble. I think what matter is that the structure is the same or similar enough, and the structure looks very similar to me.
I see two major possibilities, either this:
...or this:
In the first scenario price just continues up because the long period of consolidation has already happened.
In the second scenario this 4 month consolidation price has been in, represents the first long consolidation in the 2011 bubble, therefore price needs another long consolidation of several months before breaking ATH.
So in my opinion it's more something like this:
50%: Price just continues and breaks ATH
40%: Price goes into a big consolidation for several months before breaking ATH
10% It just dumps and continues dumping.
Poll
