Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kobilica]

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/4wvtpw/warning_tether_usdt_poloniex_bitfinex_hack/.compact

Warning about bitfinex

This is also cause of price drop (minutes ago) it seems.

T|hat was a tiny price drop of $10, and the price has gone back up by $10 to where it started from. Until Bitfinex opens up trading and withdrawals the price will go sideways. The trading/withdrawals is the only thing that's going to move the price.

Nope, kraken is still 10€ down since that new. But it will recover.

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[Dafar]

BFX coin to the moooon! 

[shmadz]

BFX coin to the moooon! 

Glad to see you're still around, I thought maybe at some point you'd get cleaned out but it seems you're doing fine, kudos!

This whole bitfinex thing is the main reason I've been advocating "as low as possible for as long as possible"  just imagine the political fallout from this kind of "hack" if the price had been 10 or 100X where we are today.

Best case scenario for the long term, in my opinion, is if we can remain below ten billion market cap for as long as possible while the kinks get worked out.

This shit might be game changing, but it's nowhere near prime time.

[adamstgBit]

I understand and recognize that in about the past year or so, a lot of folks had been gravitating towards Bitfinex as a leading indicator of price direction and moving away from Stamp...   So now, Itbit is in the price setting scene?  

I understand that price can be set in a variety of ways and through a variety of exchanges, but I really have difficulties considering how Itbit could come on the price setting scene so quickly when a lot of places don't even list their volume, so if you have to go out of your way to figure out information about them, then how could it be that they are influential in driving price direction?

bitfinex was "leading" because it had more than double the volume then the #2 btc/usd exchange ( bitstamps, which at one time was leading )
when bitfinex went down itBit had the most volume, and seemed to be ahead price wize, it was always  higher than other exchanges during the bounce.
but i think its important to look at the top 3 exchanges they all have very similar volume. itbit has the most volume tho.

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/  

we all suspect, CNY volume is exaggerated... also things are priced in DOLLARS not silly cny.
CNY exchanges came much later, and so they faked there volume in order to get noticed. and there still at it apparently in the past 24 hours over 15million coins have been traded in BTC/CNY lol what a joke.

Edit: it would appear that http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/    is reporting very inconsisten volume number for OKCoin an BTCchain feels like its broken some how. oh what ever BTC/USD thats all we need to look at...
Edit 2: oh i'm reading it wrong i was looking at 30day volume.

[European Central Bank]

just imagine the political fallout from this kind of "hack" if the price had been 10 or 100X where we are today.

I don't see how it would've been possible if bitfinex remained the go to exchange for usd. those types of price levels demand major oversight before big money even dreamt of going in.

anyone professional looking hard at bitfinex would shake their head and walk away laughing. I still can't believe that people awarded it the number one spot after all the shit that's already gone down in the past. at heart it really wasn't all that different from mt gox.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

BFX coin to the moooon! 

Glad to see you're still around, I thought maybe at some point you'd get cleaned out but it seems you're doing fine, kudos!

This whole bitfinex thing is the main reason I've been advocating "as low as possible for as long as possible"  just imagine the political fallout from this kind of "hack" if the price had been 10 or 100X where we are today.

Best case scenario for the long term, in my opinion, is if we can remain below ten billion market cap for as long as possible while the kinks get worked out.

This shit might be game changing, but it's nowhere near prime time.

Some egghead is gonna crack this thing eventually. Who wants to become a systemic risk? Spread it out like butter on a burn. That's what I say.

[shmadz]

BFX coin to the moooon!  

Glad to see you're still around, I thought maybe at some point you'd get cleaned out but it seems you're doing fine, kudos!

This whole bitfinex thing is the main reason I've been advocating "as low as possible for as long as possible"  just imagine the political fallout from this kind of "hack" if the price had been 10 or 100X where we are today.

Best case scenario for the long term, in my opinion, is if we can remain below ten billion market cap for as long as possible while the kinks get worked out.

This shit might be game changing, but it's nowhere near prime time.

Some egghead is gonna crack this thing eventually. Who wants to become a systemic risk? Spread it out like butter on a burn. That's what I say.

EGG-xactly!

Your crypto money is only as secure as whatever the current state of the art cryptography is capable of.

How can elliptic curve possibly be as secure as shipping paper bills on pallets? Transparency be damned!
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sent-cash-to-iran-as-americans-were-freed-1470181874

If you get blocked by the shitty wall street journal, just Google the following "U.S. Sent Cash to Iran as Americans Were Freed" -no body bothers to do their own work any more , the media has become the best echo chamber ever!

[shmadz]

bitcoin can't break
and if it does we'll fix it.

lol cash on pallets.

You know what Adam, I kinda agree. Not that bitcoin can't break, but that we'll fix it as it happens.

This is my own personal separation of off what bitcoin means vs what "blockchain" means.

Blockchain is the means to an end, but bitcoin is the idea of freedom of association and transfer of value that once envisioned, cannot be overcome.

[TheHangingLog]

bitcoin is the idea of freedom of association and transfer of value that once envisioned, cannot be overcome.

A boatload of value just got transferred to the nice gentlemen running Bitcoin's premiere, most secure exchange: Bitfinex.
In return, the gentlemen are giving you some valuable tokens.
Makes me feel good inside

[adamstgBit]

new poll

the day grows nearer, BFX/BTC trading to go live SOON^TM

what will (or would) you do with your BFX tokens?

[UngratefulTony]

Blockchain is the means to an end, but bitcoin is the idea of freedom of association and transfer of value that once envisioned, cannot be overcome.

Fact: Dignan, the picture's not doing it for me right now.

P.S: You turn off those KNC space heaters yet? Satisfied with the decentralized security governing your freedom of association and transfer of value these days?
Anyone else getting a feeling of foreboding, a sense of impending doom?

what will (or would) you do with your BFX tokens?

(Imagine a numbers-matching smoldering pile of US dollars?)

[TheHangingLog]

new poll

the day grows nearer, BFX/BTC trading to go live SOON^TM

what will (or would) you do with your BFX tokens?

Not seeing the "Buy an archipelago and build a franchise of privatized gulags" option. Where is it?

[adamstgBit]

[TheHangingLog]

^Dunno. You think that buy wall @530 on BTC-e is real?

[adamstgBit]

so how will the price be effected when bitfinex longs start from 0 and grow back to 40million?

and how will demand be met if everyone is busy withdrawing coins out of bitfinex?

[UngratefulTony]

and how will demand be met if everyone is busy withdrawing coins out of bitfinex?

You mean scrambling to buy coin as fast as they can to exit that mofo?

shhh, you'll ruin it.

But this is all predicated on the chance that they get this rat's nest trading before the jackboots freeze their accounts and kick in the door... lol.

[above1000]

after say the fall of the last exchange and the next silk roads auction
can we get a ETA estimated time of arrival on the next bubble  ?
about how long till we see positive 800 per coin and up  ? 

[savetherainforest]

That is correct.. each of us knows about various events, and we have various experiences that shape our views, and in the end, we respond based upon that.. and maybe even in the process disclose some of the reasons why and how we arrived at our conclusions.

Well in the context that we are facing now... And by that meaning the real world is on a verge of a major banking and everything else collapse, China floods, India floods, +other Asian countries... France floods that made wheat production fall by at least 30% from the estimates... Also South America and other South Hemisphere countries have problems because the incoming mini-ice age... if you don't know on the trading of coffee ... this is the 4th year that the real world coffee productions has suffered losses! .. on average in the last 4 years losses of 30% !!! ... And other things as well... Austria received snow and floods never seen in 100 years... Italian banks are thinking of confiscating population money, EU does not let them, Germany and Deutsche Bank seems to be screaming for some bail out money... then there comes Portugal... Spain.. UK.. even if I think Spain is almost safe. And besides that there are weird wars and political events happening...

Yes some of those events are more important than others, and even within the events that you describe above, their trajectories are somewhat unknown and some of them will play off one another and people will account for the events in different ways - that is if they even know about them or know details.

And all this nonsense will make BTCitcoin go to 2k - 3k in the next year!

There you go, again.. Engaging in a kind of regression back to a kind of fatalism - as if bitcoin's trajectory were inevitably up or that the outcomes of the various events that you describe are of such a nature to inevitably cause your description of bitcoin's upward price trajection.

And maybe 10k+ after 2018+

Oh?  Even you recognize that there could be a "maybe" in there somewhere?  

Why are you such a wuss? ...

That is a relative perspective regarding "wuss", and it really does not mean anything.... I believe that I have  a pretty significant investment into bitcoin, and I tend to accumulate and HODL, even when quite a few other folks seem to be selling.

You should be spreading the word... our lord and savior "JesusCoin"BTCitcoin will prevail...

I am not really an evangelist of anything, but I do tend to tell people about bitcoin to the extent that they seem interested in the concept and receptive in receiving information from me.

 I told all my friends to try to invest and get at least 1 coin for fun.. It can't hurt them in the long term. BTCitcoin has good "HODL" storage value in the long run!

Yeah.  1 coin should be a decent investment for anyone who might not have a large budget, but they want to get some stake in the game.

Now if you could just get another 20,999,999 friends and convince them to buy at least 1 bitcoin, on or before 2140, we may end up experiencing a bitcoin shortage, which would be a "good thing," correct?  

You should put it more in perspective for them... "Buy bitcoin or suffer!... Your money will be worthless!" or something like that... or at least break it to them in a diplomatic way.


Many of those 20.999.999 coins will be lost on their way home to 2140! ... I'm thinking that just 19.500.000 coins will survive... the most positive outcome I think about that.

And if you are convincing enough... your friends will convince other people as well for you, without bothering too much! ... Just try to create ripple effects in time...

*Edit: And when I talk of 10k ... I mean as in a bottom!

*Edit2:

... So I don't understand from where is this "dump, dump, dump!" FUD from you is coming...

Did I say anything about "dump, dump, dump"?  I mentioned possibilities of downward price action.

Anyhow, it may be worth it to repeat that I generally sell as the price goes up and buy as the price goes down.  I might preemptively strike in one direction or another if I have a pretty high level of confidence that the price is going to be adjusting by at least 10% in one direction or another - but those kinds of preemptive strikes are pretty rare for me, and tend to make me nervous too.

The last time that I employed a preemptive strike was last week, upon hearing about the Bitfinex situation.  I sold about 3% of my total BTC stash at $583.50 and then bought back at about $508.  I was attempting to buy back during the flash crash to $465, and by the time that I caught up with the matter, the price was in the $488 territory, and since I could not get my transactions to go through, I ended up buying back at about $508.

There I did better than you ... Sold at 655 something like 55% - 60% of my total  ... When I saw that 5$ dip from 660$ ... and waited... and waited.. waited... etc... and a few hours later price dipped 1$ per 15-20 minutes... till it reached another 15-20$ ... And then I sold the rest when I saw that 50$ dip... but I actually sold before the 50$ dip, because my exchange reacts 2-3 minutes later than the Chinese exchange. So I can basically short with no problem, at a 5-10$ loss per coin.

[UngratefulTony]

after say the fall of the last exchange and the next silk roads auction
can we get a ETA estimated time of arrival on the next bubble  ?
about how long till we see positive 800 per coin and up  ? 

'bout two weeks.

[savetherainforest]

Not going to happen! ...

But... This will probably happen:




*Edit: I suspect that those 100k+ coins that disappeared are being moved on to SSD cards or on multiple phones and sold on the streets of China hand-to-hand like drug dealers would do... Cuz Hong Kong(Finex) is very close to China! ... And hackers are like 98% from China...

*Edit2: No one would suspect a thing... they would just see 2 people holding their phones and looking on their screens! Something normal..