Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

after say the fall of the last exchange and the next silk roads auction
can we get a ETA estimated time of arrival on the next bubble  ?
about how long till we see positive 800 per coin and up  ? 

How is anybody going to know the answer to this question with any degree of certainty?

Anyhow, if we go above $800, there is about a 70% chance that such will occur less than 2 years from now.

Therefore there is about a 30% chance that going above $800 will take longer than years.

What about you?  What is your prediction? 

[1715271782]

1715271782

[1715271782]

1715271782

[unent]

so how will the price be effected when bitfinex longs start from 0 and grow back to 40million?

and how will demand be met if everyone is busy withdrawing coins out of bitfinex?

Bitfinex is talking about possibly processing withdrawals manually, and delaying the reintroduction of leverage until after withdrawals and normal trading have been reintroduced. Doing manual withdrawals will be as slow as a snail, and they can halt them (and a bank run) at any time with a slippery excuse.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/4wng2j/site_relaunch_bitfinex_blog/d6as7kx

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

You should put it more in perspective for them... "Buy bitcoin or suffer!... Your money will be worthless!" or something like that... or at least break it to them in a diplomatic way.

I talk to people in  terms of their apparent ability to absorb information.

I they seem to engage, then I will engage.  If they seem to glaze over, then I will change the topic.

I only give advice if people ask, and that tends to be pretty rare, and only after getting to know them pretty well.

People tend to want to give advice rather than take advice, yet sometimes, it is possible to get some back and forth going about any topic, including bitcoin related matters.

Many of those 20.999.999 coins will be lost on their way home to 2140! ... I'm thinking that just 19.500.000 coins will survive... the most positive outcome I think about that.

You are crazy if you think that many coins will survive to 2140.  We are probably already down 2 million coins in less than 10 years of bitcoin's existence, due to loss, death, etc.

And if you are convincing enough... your friends will convince other people as well for you, without bothering too much! ... Just try to create ripple effects in time...

I believe in lead by example, and over time, bitcoin is going to become more and more known and more and more adopted.. some people just take longer than others,... I am not about to attempt to persuade anyone who is not already inclined in such direction....  My thinking is that non-adopters will come to bitcoin in due time and in their time.

*Edit: And when I talk of 10k ... I mean as in a bottom!

I agree that bitcoin has a lot of potential, yet at the same time, there is a lot of monied interest that may also engage in a variety of tactics (and even lose money) to attempt to keep bitcoin down.  So, how is it going to play out, and how long will it take to get to $10k or above... Difficult to know for sure.

*Edit2:

... So I don't understand from where is this "dump, dump, dump!" FUD from you is coming...

Did I say anything about "dump, dump, dump"?  I mentioned possibilities of downward price action.

Anyhow, it may be worth it to repeat that I generally sell as the price goes up and buy as the price goes down.  I might preemptively strike in one direction or another if I have a pretty high level of confidence that the price is going to be adjusting by at least 10% in one direction or another - but those kinds of preemptive strikes are pretty rare for me, and tend to make me nervous too.

The last time that I employed a preemptive strike was last week, upon hearing about the Bitfinex situation.  I sold about 3% of my total BTC stash at $583.50 and then bought back at about $508.  I was attempting to buy back during the flash crash to $465, and by the time that I caught up with the matter, the price was in the $488 territory, and since I could not get my transactions to go through, I ended up buying back at about $508.

There I did better than you ... Sold at 655 something like 55% - 60% of my total  ... When I saw that 5$ dip from 660$ ... and waited... and waited.. waited... etc... and a few hours later price dipped 1$ per 15-20 minutes... till it reached another 15-20$ ... And then I sold the rest when I saw that 50$ dip... but I actually sold before the 50$ dip, because my exchange reacts 2-3 minutes later than the Chinese exchange. So I can basically short with no problem, at a 5-10$ loss per coin.

Based on your previous posts and your previous bragging.. especially in your earliest post in this thread, I have my doubts about whether you are actually telling the truth, yet in the end, it really does not matter to me whether you are telling the truth or not.

I personally am not competing with anyone and I am only attempting to tailor my activity to my own financial situation and my risk tolerance, etc.

I think that ultimately each of needs to attempt to our best ability to tailor our practices to our financial situation, time line and risk tolerance.  And, if you can accomplish that, then you are successful, whether you make money or not, and hopefully be able to learn from mistakes to make better plans in the present in order to better prepare for the future.

[UngratefulTony]

I think that ultimately each of needs to attempt to our best ability to tailor our practices to our financial situation, time line and risk tolerance.  And, if you can accomplish that, then you are successful, whether you make money or not, and hopefully be able to learn from mistakes to make better plans in the present in order to better prepare for the future.

Sometimes your financial situation, timeline, and risk tolerance will net you 7000 BFX tokens.

I suppose this means you'll be researching a good way to safely hodl your own bitcoin? Avoid the risk of leaving it all on exchanges, no? Or is your angaper risk tolerance just that elastic?

[JayJuanGee]

I think that ultimately each of needs to attempt to our best ability to tailor our practices to our financial situation, time line and risk tolerance.  And, if you can accomplish that, then you are successful, whether you make money or not, and hopefully be able to learn from mistakes to make better plans in the present in order to better prepare for the future.

Sometimes your financial situation, timeline, and risk tolerance will net you 7000 BFX tokens.

I suppose this means you'll be researching a good way to safely hodl your own bitcoin? Avoid the risk of leaving it all on exchanges, no? Or is your angaper risk tolerance just that elastic?

Well, I might consider responding in detail to you, if you weren't engaged in selective, repetitive patronizing lecturing, and if you were willing to discuss your own investment strategies, as well.  But, yeah, many of us already realize that you , and your other lambie sock accounts, are not in this thread to actually share information and to engage in any kind of meaningful and interactive way.

[UngratefulTony]

I think that ultimately each of needs to attempt to our best ability to tailor our practices to our financial situation, time line and risk tolerance.  And, if you can accomplish that, then you are successful, whether you make money or not, and hopefully be able to learn from mistakes to make better plans in the present in order to better prepare for the future.

Sometimes your financial situation, timeline, and risk tolerance will net you 7000 BFX tokens.

I suppose this means you'll be researching a good way to safely hodl your own bitcoin? Avoid the risk of leaving it all on exchanges, no? Or is your angaper risk tolerance just that elastic?

Well, I might consider responding in detail to you, if you weren't engaged in selective, repetitive patronizing lecturing, and if you were willing to discuss your own investment strategies, as well.  But, yeah, many of us already realize that you , and your other lambie sock accounts, are not in this thread to actually share information and to engage in any kind of meaningful and interactive way.

I shared information (admittedly in a playful yet chastising way) that would have saved you thousands of dollars worth of your (family's) savings... doesn't get much more meaningful than that. 

[JayJuanGee]

I think that ultimately each of needs to attempt to our best ability to tailor our practices to our financial situation, time line and risk tolerance.  And, if you can accomplish that, then you are successful, whether you make money or not, and hopefully be able to learn from mistakes to make better plans in the present in order to better prepare for the future.

Sometimes your financial situation, timeline, and risk tolerance will net you 7000 BFX tokens.

I suppose this means you'll be researching a good way to safely hodl your own bitcoin? Avoid the risk of leaving it all on exchanges, no? Or is your angaper risk tolerance just that elastic?

Well, I might consider responding in detail to you, if you weren't engaged in selective, repetitive patronizing lecturing, and if you were willing to discuss your own investment strategies, as well.  But, yeah, many of us already realize that you , and your other lambie sock accounts, are not in this thread to actually share information and to engage in any kind of meaningful and interactive way.

I shared information (admittedly in a playful yet chastising way) that would have saved you thousands of dollars worth of your (family's) savings... doesn't get much more meaningful than that.  

Your Monday morning quarterbacking does not mean much of anything, especially when you have no clue about any details regarding who was on the teams or which teams were playing.. You merely assert various random result while framing the situation in a win lose scenario, when it is much more nuanced than your assertions.

Let's attempt some kind of balanced perspective regarding where a person puts his assets and how he apportions them, and I am not providing you with that level of detail regarding my own personal circumstances.  Bitcoin is one component out of many non-revealed components and components that are not even relevant to the subject matter of this thread, which pertains to BTC/USD price movement and walls related to such topic.. hello?

[jbreher]

Bitfinex should be focusing on attempts to communicate and create incentives for folks to stay and using their exchange rather than creating disincentives for account holders to leave.  

Jesus Fuck... Really? I've been trying to just sit on the sidelines and merely _watch_ this shit-show, but I can no longer refrain from commenting. All y'all are some special breed of masochists. Incentives? Disincentives? Do you hear yourself typing? What more disincentive to deal with this incompetent band of "custodians" than leaving over a third of your cash at seaside? Really?

SMH.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitfinex should be focusing on attempts to communicate and create incentives for folks to stay and using their exchange rather than creating disincentives for account holders to leave.  

Jesus Fuck... Really? I've been trying to just sit on the sidelines and merely _watch_ this shit-show, but I can no longer refrain from commenting. All y'all are some special breed of masochists. Incentives? Disincentives? Do you hear yourself typing? What more disincentive to deal with this incompetent band of "custodians" than leaving over a third of your cash at seaside? Really?

SMH.

Stop being so judgmental, and snap back into reality.  Yeah, you want the exchange to fail, and yeah, you cannot believe that they are going to reopen, and yeah, you cannot believe that bitcoin still has a 1 mb blocksize limit, etc etc...

The reality of the matter is that bitfinex had offered a service that was not offered by other exchanges, including volume.

Now, my comment that you quoted has to do with their business perspective to attempt to retain customers and confidence.  This is a projection regarding what they need to do in order to inspire folks to continue to use their exchange, and it does not mean that I, personally, am going to use their exchange.  I personally do not yet know all of the terms upon which I will be able to withdraw my funds, even though I personally have been presented with a description from them regarding what they consider to be in my account.

[jbreher]

Bitfinex should be focusing on attempts to communicate and create incentives for folks to stay and using their exchange rather than creating disincentives for account holders to leave.  

Jesus Fuck... Really? I've been trying to just sit on the sidelines and merely _watch_ this shit-show, but I can no longer refrain from commenting. All y'all are some special breed of masochists. Incentives? Disincentives? Do you hear yourself typing? What more disincentive to deal with this incompetent band of "custodians" than leaving over a third of your cash at seaside? Really?

SMH.

Stop being so judgmental, and snap back into reality.  Yeah, you want the exchange to fail, and yeah, you cannot believe that they are going to reopen, and yeah, you cannot believe that bitcoin still has a 1 mb blocksize limit, etc etc...

The reality of the matter is that bitfinex had offered a service that was not offered by other exchanges, including volume.

Now, my comment that you quoted has to do with their business perspective to attempt to retain customers and confidence.  This is a projection regarding what they need to do in order to inspire folks to continue to use their exchange, and it does not mean that I, personally, am going to use their exchange.  I personally do not yet know all of the terms upon which I will be able to withdraw my funds, even though I personally have been presented with a description from them regarding what they consider to be in my account.

I will _not_ stop being so judgmental. I get it. It's your money, and you will throw it away in the manner you deem best. While it tangentially affects me in that you are enabling criminals, in the end you are gonna do what you are gonna do.

But... really? You have absolutely no evidence that this scamcenter did not merely pocket your funds.

'Hey buddy - I'll hold you money for you'
'oh wait - somebody picked my pocket'
'trust me with more?'

SM fucking H

For all my other faults, I at least recognized that when pirate@40 fucked me up the ass, his highest calling was _not_ my best interests, and that I didn't want to deal with him any longer.

[Karartma1]

BFX coin to the moooon!  

Glad to see you're still around, I thought maybe at some point you'd get cleaned out but it seems you're doing fine, kudos!

This whole bitfinex thing is the main reason I've been advocating "as low as possible for as long as possible"  just imagine the political fallout from this kind of "hack" if the price had been 10 or 100X where we are today.

Best case scenario for the long term, in my opinion, is if we can remain below ten billion market cap for as long as possible while the kinks get worked out.

This shit might be game changing, but it's nowhere near prime time.

Some egghead is gonna crack this thing eventually. Who wants to become a systemic risk? Spread it out like butter on a burn. That's what I say.

EGG-xactly!

Your crypto money is only as secure as whatever the current state of the art cryptography is capable of.

How can elliptic curve possibly be as secure as shipping paper bills on pallets? Transparency be damned!
http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-sent-cash-to-iran-as-americans-were-freed-1470181874

If you get blocked by the shitty wall street journal, just Google the following "U.S. Sent Cash to Iran as Americans Were Freed" -no body bothers to do their own work any more , the media has become the best echo chamber ever!

IRANic

They could have send some small BTC transaction every once in while instead of asking the Duthc and the Swiss to provide them with other currency because it is illegal to deal this things with US dollar.
They still have a long way to go to reach 1.7billion! good luck with that.

Imagine what a mega pump if the US will consider to buy 1.3 billion of BTC to settle this deal.

No more moon, we'll go well beyond

[savetherainforest]

I personally am not competing with anyone and I am only attempting to tailor my activity to my own financial situation and my risk tolerance, etc.

I am... or I was... a politician... but I still am in my mind... So... persuasion is like a hobby! Guilty pleasure?    


And... if you like trading, even if I myself do not trust one bit the exchanges. I do it so I can bleed society out faster and make it suffer, so they can scream for pain and make the real world move faster on their agenda. I don't give 2 sh!ts about money... what I like is actually power! I know it would not feel enough for me even if I was emperor of the Andromeda Galaxy and could have any power of control there.

[Paashaas]

Bitfinex Will Resume Trading and Withdrawals in The Next 36 Hours 

Ask youreself this question, woud you continue trading when Gox reopend without an explanation how they have been hacked..

Do youreself a favor, remove all funds and find a regulated exchange.

http://themerkle.com/bitfinex-will-resume-trading-and-withdrawals-in-the-next-36-hours/

[alphahacktivist]

Bitfinex Will Resume Trading and Withdrawals in The Next 36 Hours 

Ask youreself this question, woud you continue trading when Gox reopend without an explanation how they have been hacked..

Do youreself a favor, remove all funds and find a regulated exchange.

http://themerkle.com/bitfinex-will-resume-trading-and-withdrawals-in-the-next-36-hours/

bitfinex has not been a fine-ex

[Karartma1]

Bitfinex Will Resume Trading and Withdrawals in The Next 36 Hours 

Ask youreself this question, woud you continue trading when Gox reopend without an explanation how they have been hacked..

Do youreself a favor, remove all funds and find a regulated exchange.

http://themerkle.com/bitfinex-will-resume-trading-and-withdrawals-in-the-next-36-hours/

Still not to be considered as a viable option for big amounts teh only way we are going to get rid of these thefts, robberies and scams is the following

https://bitsquare.io/

I don't see many other options today unless we are able to move money p2p (using escrow)

[gentlemand]

Ask youreself this question, woud you continue trading when Gox reopend without an explanation how they have been hacked..

Plenty of silly sausages would. Their reasoning would be somewhere along the lines of 'well, what's the likelihood they're going to get hacked again?'

The regulated places won't be embraced until there's margin trading. I get the impression that that's a legal impossibility for some reason.

[fluidjax]

Still not to be considered as a viable option for big amounts teh only way we are going to get rid of these thefts, robberies and scams is the following

https://bitsquare.io/

I don't see many other options today unless we are able to move money p2p (using escrow)

Bitsquare currently has a 1BTC limit, plus it can take a long time to make the fiat transfer. (2 days for SEPA). So its not a real alternative ATM

[Spaceman_Spiff]

Lol, bitfinex is going to start BFX token trading without any information about them, other than they are supposed to represent 1 USD prior to trading...

What a fucking joke... If they trade BFX tokens themselves, they are trading on insider information, because we don't know shit, and they do.

[Elwar]

Price is coming back.

$666 soon after Bitfinex comes back up.

[Trouble821]

Bitfinex will resume trading and withdrawals at 16:00:00 UTC, that's less than 50 minutes from now. The price briefly spiked above $600 on itbit and bitstamp. What will it do after finex trading resumes? Will most of those holding finex dollars start buying bitcoins so they can withdraw immediately?

https://www.bitfinex.com/posts/133

Today, August 10th, 2016, at 16:00:00 UTC we will be enabling additional platform features as we continue to restore service after the incident on August 2nd. Exchange trading will be enabled for all currencies and pairs, while deposits and withdrawals will be enabled for BTC, ETC, ETH, and USD - with LTC and Tether to follow shortly thereafter. Exchange trading will also be enabled for the BFX token on pairs BFXUSD and BFXBTC.