Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

LOL I'm gonna laugh so hard when the price gradually goes down after halving.

People think it's just gonna shoot up on halving day lmao

lol!

is there some kind of point in quoting yourself?  people think all kinds of things?  so fucking what?

I would be impressed if he committed himself to a price for it to go down to, and correctly guessed it. Saying it will gradually go down after halving is too vague a statement. He can claim he was right at the first minor correction as he didn't commit himself to predicting how long he thinks it will go down for, and how low.

There are very few of these bear banker shill trolls that actually will provide either specifics or some kind of logic regarding how they arrived at such conclusions within any kind of somewhat meaningful context.

Personally, I am not hoping to be "impressed", but it would just be nice if there were at least some attempts to either back up what you way or at least be more specific... I guess being more specific does lead to the next questions concerning how you got there, and then whether the prediction turns out to be subsequently correct.

[kobilica]

Now guys, I will pump some sense into you.

Price will keep falling maybe for day or so.

But remember! Bitcoin price now is CHEAP. And banks open tomorrow.

What this means? People want bitcoins, and cheaper bitcoins are even better. Tomorrow people will go to banks and send money to bitcoin exchanges.


No wonder price felt so much over the weekend, because banks don't work over weekend.
 

[savetherainforest]

Sorry, what's HODL??  I'm guessing Hold On/Out... something  

Here you go with the origins. One drunken misspelling can give birth to an eternal legend.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=375643.0

... there was an interesting comment I found there...  

you do realize the dollar is going to ZERO right?

That means my bitcoins are worth infinite!

And an interesting pic as well...  




But too bad its going up soon...

[JayJuanGee]

Now guys, I will pump some sense into you.

Price will keep falling maybe for day or so.

But remember! Bitcoin price now is CHEAP. And banks open tomorrow.

What this means? People want bitcoins, and cheaper bitcoins are even better. Tomorrow people will go to banks and send money to bitcoin exchanges.


No wonder price felt so much over the weekend, because banks don't work over weekend.
 

I appreciate that you are willing to be somewhat specific and unequivocal in your price direction prediction, but really, what do you know about price direction?  The price direction can reverse at any time.  It is not as if we are in some kind of solid momentum in either direction, and the trade volume remains fairly mediocre, which also signifies that it can be pumped in either direction at any time. 

Surely, there can be some truth that if price is bounding a bit within a channel, and if price is on the downside of the channel, then there could be additional incentive at the lower border of the channel to attempt to push price further downwards.. so maybe at best you are describing a downward price direction situation that has a 60% chance of occurring - and it is no way near certain, as you supposed friendly "sense pumping" seems to suggest.

[kobilica]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

[Meuh6879]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1406951.msg14273356#msg14273356

[JayJuanGee]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

Even though, overall, we seem to agree about a lot of things, you still seem to be speaking in riddles.

Sure it is true that there is a lot of FUD spreading all over the interwebs, and maybe the fact that you are asserting that to be a factor, you are giving a certain amount of weight to the current status of that phenomenon.  I will concede that what people read, think and say contributes to whether they buy, HODL or sell, but still the underlying facts also remain important, including the fact that bitcoin prices recently went above $500, contrary to the desires of bearwhales and banker shills - and surely, they want to attempt to get the price back down, to the extent that they are able to accomplish such objectives.

I am not attempting to predict the price in either direction, except perhaps to suggest that there are pressures in both directions and to assert that ongoing mediocre volume can allow for quick and unexpected manipulation in either direction.. so in that sense, I fail to comprehend exactly how you could have strong feelings that price is going to be going down before we go up? 

I mean, you did not even seem to qualify your prediction very much, which probably is what caused me to respond to you in order to suggest that the language of your post seems much stronger than anyone's ability to predict - except perhaps some whale who has insider connections regarding either a pump or dump that is going to take place in the near future.

.

[chesthing]

Price tumbling what a surprise - oh wait, I did call this.   Not sure where I will buy back in, most likely at $499.

[Dafar]

So zooming out to 1d on the chart, from 5/24, bitcoin is just looking like your typical PnD bubble that we've seen so many times before.  A blow off top, followed by long legs down.  

Looks like it could eventually deflate all the way back to ~450.  

So Dafar, still mocking me thus far?

About deflating all the way back to ~$450? Yes

Of course you used the word "could", and in that case I'd agree with you since anything could happen... but I'm still bullish for the rest of this year and next year

[kobilica]

No, I am not a whale. And I do not have some insider info. It just seems right now community is lacking optimism because of bitfinex hack and horrible price crash. And it is true that small volume gives ability to manipulate price. But this manipulation is harder everyday.

What I actually feel is fear. But bear with me. Times when I felt fear just the opposite happened (price jumped up) and times when I felt strong euphoria - price crashed down. But traders ignore feelings, right?

I'd say wait for 3-4 days and we will see where we land. Right now it's fear clusterfuck.

[TReano]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

you clearly have no idea about trading at all.

I mean there is not even a slight correlation with the 2012 halving and the price spike MONTHS after. All you do is interprete something into a price chart you simply wish is true.
Fact is there is no real influence to the price from the halving. No this time and not really last time. Yes it created some volatility.


Also: "Past performance is not an indicator of future results"

[chesthing]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

you clearly have no idea about trading at all.

I mean there is not even a slight correlation with the 2012 halving and the price spike MONTHS after. All you do is interprete something into a price chart you simply wish is true.
Fact is there is no real influence to the price from the halving. No this time and not really last time. Yes it created some volatility.


Also: "Past performance is not an indicator of future results"

I think you are wrong on pretty much everything you say here.

[hdbuck]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

you clearly have no idea about trading at all.

I mean there is not even a slight correlation with the 2012 halving and the price spike MONTHS after. All you do is interprete something into a price chart you simply wish is true.
Fact is there is no real influence to the price from the halving. No this time and not really last time. Yes it created some volatility.


Also: "Past performance is not an indicator of future results"

I think you are wrong on pretty much everything you say here.

thing with bitcoin is that it is clock work engineered.

such immutably predictable system.

[aztecminer]

assuming the Bitfinex debacle is over is mistake in my opinion.

[chesthing]

assuming the Bitfinex debacle is over is mistake in my opinion.

You can't rip off that many btc whales and traders without some serious loss in buy support. Now that's just common sense.

[WiiD]

The poll never fails:



price on monday will be
>690   - 12 (21.4%)
600   - 5 (8.9%)
590   - 12 (21.4%)
584   - 9 (16.1%)
570   - 3 (5.4%)
560   - 3 (5.4%)
<520   - 12 (21.4%)
Total Voters: 56

[savetherainforest]

This! ....

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?

That is one of the signs of "go time!" ... Usually when all news seem to become negative and there is uncertainty being spread all over the place. Well... that is the time when people seem to be buying penny stocks from crying babies.

[shmadz]

I can know much as you do, with my eyes looking at graph and thinking logically. (and reading facts on internet)

Right now you see shitload of FUD everywhere, fake news about bitcoin "dying slow death", new fake profiles, and bitfinex trash situation. Don't you just sense fear and uncertainty?


More facts:
- Trading bots love low price, they will buy fuck out of it once the long trends reverses

- First halving price&after

You see, bitcoin never touched that price again.

And right now, bitcoin price is lower than it was pre/post 2nd halving. And this is just because of bitfinex situation.

- Bitcoin is still developing tech.

It's good time to buy if you ask me. If you are not sure, wait 3-4 days.

Even though, overall, we seem to agree about a lot of things, you still seem to be speaking in riddles. < accuses poster of speaking in riddles

v speaks riddles for next three paragraphs v
Sure it is true that there is a lot of FUD spreading all over the interwebs, and maybe the fact that you are asserting that to be a factor, you are giving a certain amount of weight to the current status of that phenomenon.  I will concede that what people read, think and say contributes to whether they buy, HODL or sell, but still the underlying facts also remain important, including the fact that bitcoin prices recently went above $500, contrary to the desires of bearwhales and banker shills - and surely, they want to attempt to get the price back down, to the extent that they are able to accomplish such objectives.

I am not attempting to predict the price in either direction, except perhaps to suggest that there are pressures in both directions and to assert that ongoing mediocre volume can allow for quick and unexpected manipulation in either direction.. so in that sense, I fail to comprehend exactly how you could have strong feelings that price is going to be going down before we go up? 

I mean, you did not even seem to qualify your prediction very much, which probably is what caused me to respond to you in order to suggest that the language of your post seems much stronger than anyone's ability to predict - except perhaps some whale who has insider connections regarding either a pump or dump that is going to take place in the near future.

Just had to capture this for posterity. (Blue parts are mine)

[aminorex]

On advice of monkey I am short btcusd over the coming month or so.

[JayJuanGee]

No, I am not a whale. And I do not have some insider info. It just seems right now community is lacking optimism because of bitfinex hack and horrible price crash. And it is true that small volume gives ability to manipulate price. But this manipulation is harder everyday.

What I actually feel is fear. But bear with me. Times when I felt fear just the opposite happened (price jumped up) and times when I felt strong euphoria - price crashed down. But traders ignore feelings, right?

I'd say wait for 3-4 days and we will see where we land. Right now it's fear clusterfuck.

Based on your own feelings (described as fear at this point), it seems that you are attempting to mock some common points of wisdom, specifically to attempt to not become too emotional regarding either your investment or your investment choices.

Do you really believe that advice, regarding keeping emotions out of your trades to be bad advice?

Yes, I will concede that humans have emotions, and even if you program some bot trading, you are still emotionally attached to your investment in some degree, otherwise you would not have spent time considering it and making such investments.

I doubt that anyone is really suggesting that you should be a bot or have no human emotions in respect to your investment, but over time, you should be able to establish systems (whether it is buy/ HODLing or trading) in which you have a general plan for no matter which direction the market goes.  Maybe you do not know every single specific of your plan because sometimes the plan may be that you need to review your plan and to reconsider your plan at various points and upon the triggering of certain events.

Anyhow, part of my point is that you can establish ways to attempt to minimize emotions..

I only use myself as an example because I am able to talk about my own situation, and surely from time to time, I feel emotions when the price moves against me and when it is very volatile, because a person cannot really know when it is going to stop in one direction or another, and even with myself, my built in assumption over time is that bitcoin prices are going to go up.  Therefore, I structure my strategy in such a way that my whole portfolio does better when prices go up, so yeah, my portfolio was doing fucking great all the way up to $779, and it is not in as great of shape at $566 as it was at $779.

Anyhow, I do have to reconfigure from time to time, and I attempt to be prepared for the price to go down in considerable ways, even if it were to return to the $200s.. though of course, matters are much better going up rather than down, and less down is better than a lot down.. yet  overall staying above the mid-$00s is good, too.   

I guess my main points is to prepare mentally and to prepare with your portfolio with a plan that is suitable for you, and if you are becoming extremely emotional, that is likely a sign that you have over invested either in one direction or another.. so you may need to tweak your holdings in order to remove some of the anxiety that is being evoked by the then current situation.