Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rjclarke2000]

1000 ... cool but not shocking or even that surprising really, where to from here?

i) Consolidate around the $1k mark, some chance of rather deep dump also but eventually coming back to $1k mark.

ii) New ATH $1165 is now definitely on the top of the list for upside targets. From there $1500, $1800 and $2000 have to be good psych attractors also.

iii) Mad bullish (5th adoption wave) scenario is to keep trucking on the doubling trend, $1800 by end of March, $3600 mid-May, $7200 early June, $9588 blow-off top late June early July.

iii makes me all tingly.

[Ted E. Bare]

Anyone know why btc-e is lagging so much behind?

[eddie13]

Anyone know why btc-e is lagging so much behind?

iirc something to do with it being so hard to get fiat on and off of there..
What I was told years ago and seems to still stand..

[bitebits]

Anyone know why btc-e is lagging so much behind?

Fiat friction.

[JayJuanGee]

Happy 2017 to everyone, I think the next step is the 1050$ if it breaks i don't have any idea what would be the next stop of this rally, maybe some old bitcoiners have an idea ?

I think that we need to look at the current ATH as the next stop and a potential resistance point...

There is considerable potential that the current ATH would not be a resistance point because we are already so close to it, but I think that we still need to see how this price range plays out between $1060 and $1180

Seems to be plausible, i'm very cautious because it's my first time as a bitcoiner as i experience a rally a these prices, so thanks for your thoughts

If you are nervous about retaining value with your BTC holdings, you can sell a little bit on the way up.  Usually you do not want to sell too much because you could end up with a bunch of fiat and a lacking in BTC.  

Everyone is different regarding how they will do it, but I tend to sell 1% to 2% of my BTC holdings every $100 price rise of BTC in about every $10 to $15 increments (in other words staggered in both directions - up and down), and then I buy back when BTC prices go back down... therefore, on average I end up selling less than 1% for every $100 (and my BTC holdings grow overall with the same amount of investment, more or less).  

I started this selling strategy at a bit over $250 (but my selling between $250 and about $400 was an even smaller percentage of my BTC holdings because my BTC portfolio was then in the red) and today, I still have nearly 92% of my BTC holdings in BTC and the other 8% in fiat.  

Some kind of a strategy of taking profits (even small amounts) can help you to be less nervous during BTC volatile periods (which are almost inevitable) but I think that even with extensive practice a lot of us get nervous no matter what when the price becomes really volatile (especially when it goes down), so we have to figure out ways to hedge and to safeguard some of our nervousness that are tailored to our own situations.

Thanks for the advises, I'm not so nervous because i have started by investing little amounts of fiat every months and i didn't invest a lot since november, also, what i've invested i consider if i lose this amount it won't change my life (even if i wouldn't be happy), but i wanted to trade a little bit but i was nervous so i was just hodl
But it's an interesting strategy to start trading at minimal risk, thanks i'll try that

I completely agree with what appears to be your initial strategy to invest small amounts into BTC on a regular basis that you could afford to lose, if worst case scenario were to arise.  That should be a continued strategy with any investment (and especially true with known volatile investments such as bitcoin).

Also, I understand that if you are in a kind of initial BTC accumulation phase of your investment, you cannot really justify selling any part of it.. because you feel that you have so little and you are continuing to accumulate and to buy on dips, etc.  

I accumulated BTC for more than a year and a half before I created a selling (or BTC trading) strategy... but partly my hand was forced to keep accumulating BTC during that time because during my initial investment BTC prices continued to go down for the first year (2014) and then only became somewhat flat then next 6-8 months in 2015, which allowed me to accumulate some coins at the lower prices and then to create a BTC trading strategy that I considered to be profitable because my strategy only allowed me to sell coins from the ones that I had accumulated below the then selling price (as prices went up - so my average buy price was less than $250 for those coins that I authorized selling some of the profits)....


So in essence I divided my total BTC investment into mostly three components, and initially, I held 2 of the portions that continued to be in the red and only traded from the portion of the coins that was in the green... as price continued to rise, then my other two portions of my BTC portfolio merged into the green or at least closer in the green which allowed me to authorize myself to trade more coins and a higher portion of my BTC portfolio  (my cost basis for the coins was a bit of a moving target as the price changed and as I continued to buy and sell, but initially my price averages for the three groups were approximately as follows: 1) below $250, 2) below $350 and 3) about $500.

I created some other limits too in order to only trade from "profits".  For example, if you have accumulated 10BTC, then every dollar that BTC prices goes up, your portfolio goes up in value by $10, which is $10 profits.  So, if BTC prices goes up $10, then your profits of your BTC holdings are $100, and initially I authorized myself only to trade from my BTC profits (and my authorization varied over time, but trading 30% to 50% of my profits seemed to be somewhat reasonable for me, but I know sometimes people will want to trade either more or less of their profits based on their own personality, view of bitcoin and/or otherwise overall financial circumstances).

[Searing]

Anyone know why btc-e is lagging so much behind?

Yeah if I had 'founder early adopter btc' I'd be all over that moving btc in wash/rinse/repeat.

That is quite a spread. I supect it is a whale habitrail hamster tunnel back and forth moving
and selling btc.

[Ted E. Bare]

They sure are the weirdest exchange.

[HI-TEC99]

Anyone know why btc-e is lagging so much behind?

It normally lags behind all the other exchanges. These are the ATHs on stamp, finex, and btc-e.

Bitstamp $1163
Bitfinex $1175
Btc-e $1095

It was $70 to $80 below the others in the 2013 high. As others said it's got something to do with trading and withdrawal fees. It might cost more to withdraw from btc-e because it uses different fiat withdrawal channels to the others.

[Searing]

They sure are the weirdest exchange.

Could it be artificial and they are doing wash/rinse/repeat?

[JayJuanGee]

Happy 2017 to everyone, I think the next step is the 1050$ if it breaks i don't have any idea what would be the next stop of this rally, maybe some old bitcoiners have an idea ?

I think that we need to look at the current ATH as the next stop and a potential resistance point...

There is considerable potential that the current ATH would not be a resistance point because we are already so close to it, but I think that we still need to see how this price range plays out between $1060 and $1180

Seems to be plausible, i'm very cautious because it's my first time as a bitcoiner as i experience a rally a these prices, so thanks for your thoughts

If you are nervous about retaining value with your BTC holdings, you can sell a little bit on the way up.  Usually you do not want to sell too much because you could end up with a bunch of fiat and a lacking in BTC. 

Everyone is different regarding how they will do it, but I tend to sell 1% to 2% of my BTC holdings every $100 price rise of BTC in about every $10 to $15 increments (in other words staggered in both directions - up and down), and then I buy back when BTC prices go back down... therefore, on average I end up selling less than 1% for every $100 (and my BTC holdings grow overall with the same amount of investment, more or less). 

I started this selling strategy at a bit over $250 (but my selling between $250 and about $400 was an even smaller percentage of my BTC holdings because my BTC portfolio was then in the red) and today, I still have nearly 92% of my BTC holdings in BTC and the other 8% in fiat. 

Some kind of a strategy of taking profits (even small amounts) can help you to be less nervous during BTC volatile periods (which are almost inevitable) but I think that even with extensive practice a lot of us get nervous no matter what when the price becomes really volatile (especially when it goes down), so we have to figure out ways to hedge and to safeguard some of our nervousness that are tailored to our own situations.

This is an excellent strategy, imho, because you actually profit from volatility. IOW, a volatile price rise from A to B will leave you richer than a steady rise from A to B. You (the investor) win, at the expense of the speculators.

It actually seems to play out like that in practice, too, as long as you stick to your guns and continue to stagger your bets in both directions.... It probably works at bringing down some of the overall volatility too, if everyone were to engage in such a practice. 

On the other hand, once you have staggered your bets with this kind of strategy, you are not precluded from some speculation on the margins (or from time to time seeing a pretty clear likely price direction and then hedging a little more in the anticipated direction, just for shits and giggles and a little more profits without putting a lot of your overall holdings at risk).

[JayJuanGee]

LOL Currently $999.99 at Stamp.

How's that for numerology fans?

JJG? Toknormal? 

Don't forget the numerology king, se llama Torque.   

[ImI]

Anyone know why btc-e is lagging so much behind?

Fiat friction.

this.

[JimboToronto]

January 1 is behind us now (UTC) and what a lovely green candle it left behind.



Let's hope there are lots more to come in 2017

[BTCtrader71]

Happy 2017 to everyone, I think the next step is the 1050$ if it breaks i don't have any idea what would be the next stop of this rally, maybe some old bitcoiners have an idea ?

I think that we need to look at the current ATH as the next stop and a potential resistance point...

There is considerable potential that the current ATH would not be a resistance point because we are already so close to it, but I think that we still need to see how this price range plays out between $1060 and $1180

Seems to be plausible, i'm very cautious because it's my first time as a bitcoiner as i experience a rally a these prices, so thanks for your thoughts

If you are nervous about retaining value with your BTC holdings, you can sell a little bit on the way up.  Usually you do not want to sell too much because you could end up with a bunch of fiat and a lacking in BTC. 

Everyone is different regarding how they will do it, but I tend to sell 1% to 2% of my BTC holdings every $100 price rise of BTC in about every $10 to $15 increments (in other words staggered in both directions - up and down), and then I buy back when BTC prices go back down... therefore, on average I end up selling less than 1% for every $100 (and my BTC holdings grow overall with the same amount of investment, more or less). 

I started this selling strategy at a bit over $250 (but my selling between $250 and about $400 was an even smaller percentage of my BTC holdings because my BTC portfolio was then in the red) and today, I still have nearly 92% of my BTC holdings in BTC and the other 8% in fiat. 

Some kind of a strategy of taking profits (even small amounts) can help you to be less nervous during BTC volatile periods (which are almost inevitable) but I think that even with extensive practice a lot of us get nervous no matter what when the price becomes really volatile (especially when it goes down), so we have to figure out ways to hedge and to safeguard some of our nervousness that are tailored to our own situations.

This is an excellent strategy, imho, because you actually profit from volatility. IOW, a volatile price rise from A to B will leave you richer than a steady rise from A to B. You (the investor) win, at the expense of the speculators.

It actually seems to play out like that in practice, too, as long as you stick to your guns and continue to stagger your bets in both directions.... It probably works at bringing down some of the overall volatility too, if everyone were to engage in such a practice. 

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

[JayJuanGee]

Happy 2017 to everyone, I think the next step is the 1050$ if it breaks i don't have any idea what would be the next stop of this rally, maybe some old bitcoiners have an idea ?

I think that we need to look at the current ATH as the next stop and a potential resistance point...

There is considerable potential that the current ATH would not be a resistance point because we are already so close to it, but I think that we still need to see how this price range plays out between $1060 and $1180

Seems to be plausible, i'm very cautious because it's my first time as a bitcoiner as i experience a rally a these prices, so thanks for your thoughts

If you are nervous about retaining value with your BTC holdings, you can sell a little bit on the way up.  Usually you do not want to sell too much because you could end up with a bunch of fiat and a lacking in BTC. 

Everyone is different regarding how they will do it, but I tend to sell 1% to 2% of my BTC holdings every $100 price rise of BTC in about every $10 to $15 increments (in other words staggered in both directions - up and down), and then I buy back when BTC prices go back down... therefore, on average I end up selling less than 1% for every $100 (and my BTC holdings grow overall with the same amount of investment, more or less). 

I started this selling strategy at a bit over $250 (but my selling between $250 and about $400 was an even smaller percentage of my BTC holdings because my BTC portfolio was then in the red) and today, I still have nearly 92% of my BTC holdings in BTC and the other 8% in fiat. 

Some kind of a strategy of taking profits (even small amounts) can help you to be less nervous during BTC volatile periods (which are almost inevitable) but I think that even with extensive practice a lot of us get nervous no matter what when the price becomes really volatile (especially when it goes down), so we have to figure out ways to hedge and to safeguard some of our nervousness that are tailored to our own situations.

This is an excellent strategy, imho, because you actually profit from volatility. IOW, a volatile price rise from A to B will leave you richer than a steady rise from A to B. You (the investor) win, at the expense of the speculators.

It actually seems to play out like that in practice, too, as long as you stick to your guns and continue to stagger your bets in both directions.... It probably works at bringing down some of the overall volatility too, if everyone were to engage in such a practice. 

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

I'm not clear about the math terminology, but I agree that a bot could be programmed with such methodology and overall be profitable, and I think that the profitability kind of assumes an overall upwards BTC price trajectory.  If the price trajectory goes down overall, likely the losses would be less than if no such system were followed, but it would not necessarily be profitable if the longterm price trajectory ends up being downwards.

Without a bot, there is both a potential for human error and also human impulsivity and emotions to sometimes cause actions that are not quite fitting with complete logical and technical inputs - that can also include accounting for various behaviors of other traders and the news, etc. that may cause deviation from the model.

   Maybe in the end, some of the human interventions can be minimized or averaged out so that they do not cause losses or gains that are outside of normal parameters?  Everyone likes to believe that they can kind of beat market averages, but frequently that ability to beat is proven to be quite difficult to achieve.   No matter what if a bot is not employed, there will tend to be a bit of human influence that can rise to a kind of gambling component that may or may not play out profitably.

[r0ach]

The r0ach report vol 5 released.  I cover the whole FOA "freegold" theory vs bitcoin vs silver:

http://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/if-there-s-any-plausible-conspiracy-involving-silver-and-bitcoin-this-is-it

There's a lot of stuff in there I'm sure many people here are not aware of in terms of monetary reset and ramifications.  

It will be interesting to see what other people think about my gold/silver/bitcoin allocation tables.

[talkingleaves]

The r0ach report vol 5 released.  I cover the whole FOA "freegold" theory vs bitcoin vs silver:

http://steemit.com/money/@r0achtheunsavory/if-there-s-any-plausible-conspiracy-involving-silver-and-bitcoin-this-is-it

There's a lot of stuff in there I'm sure many people here are not aware of in terms of monetary reset and ramifications.  

It will be interesting to see what other people think about my gold/silver/bitcoin allocation tables.

thanks roach, been looking forward to that.

I bet if you got a regular blog going you'd build up quite a following.

[harrymmmm]

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

I'd like to see that proof
A couple of problems I see with it:
1) you are talking about piecewise sinusoids (right? reset at each sudden price change?). That complicates any kind of frequency domain analysis. Lots of noise.
2) After a price change, how do you determine what phase (and amplitude) to start the next piece at?

If you really did mean fourier analysis of the whole price data, then you would see low frequency cycles with a bit of luck (but too many people already found those, so they're tiny). The sudden price moves add way too much noise to be able to detect anything sinusoidal at day trader frequencies.

[Elwar]

$1,000



Bitcoin just joined the

[BTCtrader71]

Happy 2017 to everyone, I think the next step is the 1050$ if it breaks i don't have any idea what would be the next stop of this rally, maybe some old bitcoiners have an idea ?

I think that we need to look at the current ATH as the next stop and a potential resistance point...

There is considerable potential that the current ATH would not be a resistance point because we are already so close to it, but I think that we still need to see how this price range plays out between $1060 and $1180

Seems to be plausible, i'm very cautious because it's my first time as a bitcoiner as i experience a rally a these prices, so thanks for your thoughts

If you are nervous about retaining value with your BTC holdings, you can sell a little bit on the way up.  Usually you do not want to sell too much because you could end up with a bunch of fiat and a lacking in BTC.  

Everyone is different regarding how they will do it, but I tend to sell 1% to 2% of my BTC holdings every $100 price rise of BTC in about every $10 to $15 increments (in other words staggered in both directions - up and down), and then I buy back when BTC prices go back down... therefore, on average I end up selling less than 1% for every $100 (and my BTC holdings grow overall with the same amount of investment, more or less).  

I started this selling strategy at a bit over $250 (but my selling between $250 and about $400 was an even smaller percentage of my BTC holdings because my BTC portfolio was then in the red) and today, I still have nearly 92% of my BTC holdings in BTC and the other 8% in fiat.  

Some kind of a strategy of taking profits (even small amounts) can help you to be less nervous during BTC volatile periods (which are almost inevitable) but I think that even with extensive practice a lot of us get nervous no matter what when the price becomes really volatile (especially when it goes down), so we have to figure out ways to hedge and to safeguard some of our nervousness that are tailored to our own situations.

This is an excellent strategy, imho, because you actually profit from volatility. IOW, a volatile price rise from A to B will leave you richer than a steady rise from A to B. You (the investor) win, at the expense of the speculators.

It actually seems to play out like that in practice, too, as long as you stick to your guns and continue to stagger your bets in both directions.... It probably works at bringing down some of the overall volatility too, if everyone were to engage in such a practice.  

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

... I agree that a bot could be programmed with such methodology and overall be profitable ...

A bot would definitely be nice for this kind of thing. When you see volatility, everyone else would be having a heart attack, and you could just sit back, think about your bot making money from the volatility plus the fact that you're making the world a better place by decreasing volatility, and smile

If you assume price = constant + superimposed sinusoidal curve, with the amplitude of the curve big enough to trigger buying and selling, then by your method, you repeatedly buy low, sell high, over and over again. Which means you make money, assuming the spread and transaction costs are less than what you earn from buying low and selling high.

Any curve can be represented as a sum of sinusoidal curves, i.e. a Fourier series. Therefore, it becomes mathematically provable that your method, if properly implemented, will cause you to benefit from volatility.

I'd like to see that proof
A couple of problems I see with it:
1) you are talking about piecewise sinusoids (right? reset at each sudden price change?). That complicates any kind of frequency domain analysis. Lots of noise.
2) After a price change, how do you determine what phase (and amplitude) to start the next piece at?

If you really did mean fourier analysis of the whole price data, then you would see low frequency cycles with a bit of luck (but too many people already found those, so they're tiny). The sudden price moves add way too much noise to be able to detect anything sinusoidal at day trader frequencies.

I've never done the proof formally, but the statement to be proved would be something along these lines:
- assume X% allocation bitcoin, and 100-X % allocation fiat at the beginning
- assume price starts at $A and ends at $B, with arbitrary path from A to B
- assume zero spread and zero fees (makes the math simpler, but you'd have to bear in mind this is an oversimplification of the model)
Strategy 1: no buying and no selling at all
Strategy 2: if your percent allocation of wealth in bitcoin rises above or below X% by some fixed amount D (let's say, +/- 5%) due to bitcoin price fluctuations, then buy or sell as needed to keep the % allocation within X +/- D %.

For example: if you set X at 50% at the beginning and D at 5%, then your bot will buy or sell as needed to keep your percent allocation within the range of 45% to 55%

The proof would basically say that Strategy 2 works better than Strategy 1. I think a few more assumptions are needed though. I'm not sure, but I think Strategy 2 is better if we assume that neither bitcoin nor the fiat becomes worthless. Suppose, for example, that the fiat hyperinflates a la Zimbabwe in 2009 or whenever. In that case, Strategy 2 would definitely be a BAD idea, because by the end you would have sold all your bitcoin and you'd have a zillion Zimbabwean dollars worth nothing. But if we assume the fiat currency stays stable, and bitcoin goes to the moon but does so in a very volatile fashion, then I'm pretty sure Strategy 2 can be proven to be superior.

EDIT:
Actually I might also have to assume that you start and end at the same price. Obviously if the price of bitcoin shoots up to $1M, you're better off if you didn't sell any of it at all during the rise, which means Strategy 1 would be better.