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Question: Sept. 21 Closing Price:
$0 - 2 (2.7%)
<$8,000 - 4 (5.5%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 1 (1.4%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 1 (1.4%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 2 (2.7%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 4 (5.5%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 12 (16.4%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 15 (20.5%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 16 (21.9%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 4 (5.5%)
>$12,000 - 7 (9.6%)
>$20,000 - 5 (6.8%)
Total Voters: 73

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21363758 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (106 posts by 21 users deleted.)
Master mind
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January 05, 2017, 08:08:55 PM


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January 05, 2017, 08:19:19 PM

A 23% drop is totally normal for Bitcoin. This is all totally normal. Smiley

wutizurkwest
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January 05, 2017, 08:24:36 PM

A 23% drop is totally normal for Bitcoin. This is all totally normal. Smiley

This is all totally normal...this is all totally normal...this is all totally normal...

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January 05, 2017, 08:26:42 PM
Last edit: January 05, 2017, 08:37:37 PM by ImI

A 23% drop is totally normal for Bitcoin. This is all totally normal. Smiley

A rise of 50% in just a couple of weeks is obv NOT normal, but a drop of 23% just after such a steep rise IS normal.
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January 05, 2017, 08:28:15 PM



Breaks up or down?
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January 05, 2017, 08:32:55 PM



Breaks up or down?

What does the squiggly line indicator at the bottom of the chart say it's going to do? Does the Ronald big Mac Donald indicator contradict the squiggly line indicator?
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January 05, 2017, 08:38:26 PM



Breaks up or down?

What does the squiggly line indicator at the bottom of the chart say it's going to do? Does the Ronald big Mac Donald indicator contradict the squiggly line indicator?

Think it means that anything can happen - I dont know if we are in a bull or a bear right now, so just holding tight =)
BTCtrader71
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January 05, 2017, 08:39:19 PM

Always been confused by this and maybe someone can help.

How will bitcoin get to a high price if it can't do big jumps in price?

Surely slow and steady will take us tens and tens of years.

How can 10k (for example) be even remotely realistic any time soon?

Not trolling, just wondering your thoughts.

This is a good question, one that I have been thinking about.

Vinny Lingham predicts a slow and steady rise to 2k-3k during 2017. His judgement seems as good as anyone's to me. But I agree there's no way in hell we're gonna go slow and steady to 100k, or even 10k. And yes I'm thinking in log axis. Suppose price multiplies by 2.5 x per year. Five years of that would get us to 100k. But can you imagine that actually happening? Once that pattern establishes itself, someone who thinks in terms of years is gonna try to frontrun it and will be willing to buy at a premium, short term traders will see that happening, the price will go parabolic, everyone will know it's day traders responsible for the short term parabolic rise and will try to front-run them cashing out, big crash, and there you have it. So if it's truly going to the moon, I think it's safe to assume that it will be a volatile ride all the way to the top.

Hmm, that gives me an idea on how to model the magnitude of the swings. If you knew how many speculators there are (in terms of how much capital they are working with) and what time frames they are working in (long term investors or "long-termers," minute to minute day traders of "short-termers," and everything in between), and the first people to go long are the long-termers and the last to go long are the short term day traders, with the in between being the in between, then the parabolic rise ends when the progression from long termers to short termers runs out.




TeeBone
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January 05, 2017, 08:39:35 PM

Mini triangle breakout,  rally back on  Grin
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January 05, 2017, 08:40:00 PM

What does the squiggly line indicator at the bottom of the chart say it's going to do? Does the Ronald big Mac Donald indicator contradict the squiggly line indicator?

IDK, I don't believe in those magic lines..
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January 05, 2017, 08:41:24 PM



Breaks up or down?

What does the squiggly line indicator at the bottom of the chart say it's going to do? Does the Ronald big Mac Donald indicator contradict the squiggly line indicator?

Think it means that anything can happen - I dont know if we are in a bull or a bear right now, so just holding tight =)

WTF is the point of the squiggly line indicator if all it tells you is that anything can happen?
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January 05, 2017, 08:48:18 PM



Breaks up or down?

What does the squiggly line indicator at the bottom of the chart say it's going to do? Does the Ronald big Mac Donald indicator contradict the squiggly line indicator?

Think it means that anything can happen - I dont know if we are in a bull or a bear right now, so just holding tight =)

WTF is the point of the squiggly line indicator if all it tells you is that anything can happen?

I use chicken bones, they're pretty good indictator - they tell me anything can happen. Usually.  Very reliable.
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January 05, 2017, 08:52:18 PM

Whenever you are feeling blue about the Bitcoin market vs. other financial markets, just read a few of these articles and you will feel a whole lot better:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/everything-is-rigged-the-biggest-financial-scandal-yet-20130425

http://www.gregpalast.com/larry-summers-and-the-secret-end-game-memo/

They can't rig what they don't control.  At least not yet.  Smiley
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January 05, 2017, 08:53:18 PM

Same old same old. Big pump. Big dump.

History repeats itself yet again. So what now? A few dead cat bounces and back down to $600 by June?

See you next winter for our annual pump.
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January 05, 2017, 09:00:36 PM

I use chicken bones, they're pretty good indictator - they tell me anything can happen. Usually.  Very reliable.

Bones? Pff, chicken roulette!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wz-PtEJEaqY
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January 05, 2017, 09:06:12 PM

Always been confused by this and maybe someone can help.

How will bitcoin get to a high price if it can't do big jumps in price?

Surely slow and steady will take us tens and tens of years.

How can 10k (for example) be even remotely realistic any time soon?

Not trolling, just wondering your thoughts.

This is a good question, one that I have been thinking about.

Vinny Lingham predicts a slow and steady rise to 2k-3k during 2017. His judgement seems as good as anyone's to me. But I agree there's no way in hell we're gonna go slow and steady to 100k, or even 10k. And yes I'm thinking in log axis. Suppose price multiplies by 2.5 x per year. Five years of that would get us to 100k. But can you imagine that actually happening? Once that pattern establishes itself, someone who thinks in terms of years is gonna try to frontrun it and will be willing to buy at a premium, short term traders will see that happening, the price will go parabolic, everyone will know it's day traders responsible for the short term parabolic rise and will try to front-run them cashing out, big crash, and there you have it. So if it's truly going to the moon, I think it's safe to assume that it will be a volatile ride all the way to the top.

Hmm, that gives me an idea on how to model the magnitude of the swings. If you knew how many speculators there are (in terms of how much capital they are working with) and what time frames they are working in (long term investors or "long-termers," minute to minute day traders of "short-termers," and everything in between), and the first people to go long are the long-termers and the last to go long are the short term day traders, with the in between being the in between, then the parabolic rise ends when the progression from long termers to short termers runs out.







Incredibly interesting. Thank you for your input BTCtrader
JayJuanGee
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January 05, 2017, 09:09:20 PM

Coinbase 3 hrs ago:
"Sorry folks, due to high demand we're experiencing issues with our servers, there may be a multi-day delay in your bitcoin purchase."

Coinbase now:
"Oh would you look at that, your coins have been successfully delivered to your account. In record time too!"

 Grin Grin Grin


Hahahaha

Torque, I knew that you had some kind of sense of humor somewhere deep down in your being, despite your mean and serious looking avatar.   Wink    Cheesy

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January 05, 2017, 09:13:55 PM

About 65.000 unconfirmed transaction, this will be interesting.



https://blockchain.info/unconfirmed-transactions

so, what are we thinking about it?
BTCtrader71
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January 05, 2017, 09:15:07 PM

Always been confused by this and maybe someone can help.

How will bitcoin get to a high price if it can't do big jumps in price?

Surely slow and steady will take us tens and tens of years.

How can 10k (for example) be even remotely realistic any time soon?

Not trolling, just wondering your thoughts.

This is a good question, one that I have been thinking about.

Vinny Lingham predicts a slow and steady rise to 2k-3k during 2017. His judgement seems as good as anyone's to me. But I agree there's no way in hell we're gonna go slow and steady to 100k, or even 10k. And yes I'm thinking in log axis. Suppose price multiplies by 2.5 x per year. Five years of that would get us to 100k. But can you imagine that actually happening? Once that pattern establishes itself, someone who thinks in terms of years is gonna try to frontrun it and will be willing to buy at a premium, short term traders will see that happening, the price will go parabolic, everyone will know it's day traders responsible for the short term parabolic rise and will try to front-run them cashing out, big crash, and there you have it. So if it's truly going to the moon, I think it's safe to assume that it will be a volatile ride all the way to the top.

Hmm, that gives me an idea on how to model the magnitude of the swings. If you knew how many speculators there are (in terms of how much capital they are working with) and what time frames they are working in (long term investors or "long-termers," minute to minute day traders of "short-termers," and everything in between), and the first people to go long are the long-termers and the last to go long are the short term day traders, with the in between being the in between, then the parabolic rise ends when the progression from long termers to short termers runs out.







Incredibly interesting. Thank you for your input BTCtrader

My thought process is partially inspired by the thought process Mike Burry used to predict the timing of the housing market crash. There's a video online somewhere of a lecture he gives. Basically, banks were making it easier and easier and easier and easier to get a loan. When they ran out of tricks, then there was no more new money getting into the system, and that's when it crashes. Turns out he was right.

In this case, to do the calculation, we'd need to have some data that I'm not sure how to come up with. Basically, something like a graph where the x-axis represents the time frame that the trader is looking at / working in (minutes, hours, days, ..., years) and the y-axis is how much capital is allocated to any trading strategy dealing in that time frame (summed over all traders).

EDIT: Suppose that S(T) is the strategy that a trader would use who works and thinks in terms of timeframe T. (e.g., T = 1 hour for a trader who makes trades based on the hourly charts.) A key assumption would be that the goal of strategy S(T) is to front-run strategy S(T+something). For example, the goal of a trader who looks at the 5-minute charts is to front run the traders who are looking at the 10-minute charts.
 
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January 05, 2017, 09:18:30 PM

Need to get this thing moving again
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rJppnG1tflU
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