Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[r0ach]

just another reason for dismantling the bureaucracy

Make world great again

[AlexGR]

I think the chances are actually closer to 2-5% than "<25%" of the market analysts etc etc.

It depends.  The wildcard variable in this situation is how badly the malevolent, enemy of mankind, Jewish bankers want to try and force everyone into a digital cash only slave system.  If they believe people getting accustomed to bitcoin helps them in this process to fiscally rape you, then hello bitcoin ETF.

All the systems that act as intermediaries to people actually owning their bitcoins, are quite vulnerable from state intervention. I think China is big because people used exchanges as they would a broker account. Few moved their coins to their wallets - if they ever had one (aside from the exchange interface they used). So this made exchanges vulnerable. An ETF could present a similar situation / danger, although it could make it easier for people to buy.

It's possible they might believe adding a bitcoin ETF will also keep people out of the metals market and prevent a run on their fractional reserve Comex.  I think that would be a stupid assumption since if Bitcoin went to like $10,000, people like me would be wiping out all the metals that exist, but you never know what goes on in the mind of the shylock.

I don't really think BTC has the dynamic to reduce metal demand, as its marketcap is way too small. Even at 10x current price it's too small... Gold production (only mines / no recycled) requires more than 120 billion $$$ per year to absorb while bitcoin production (~650k coins) only takes 0.7bn usd. It's a drop in the ocean in comparison (all BTCs mined per year can be bought with the money needed for ~2 days worth of global gold mining). And we are not even counting silver, palladium, platinum, etc.

The fluctuations on metal price and metal production put a much bigger strain on buyers capacity (=wallet) to absorb production. A "small" increase of annual production in the range of 100 extra tons, can require a further 4bn USD in cash to buy that. Or a price spike of 50$, can make the annual production require 5+ bn USD extra cash. If you combine events like +200 tons output and +100$ in price within a year (both quite possible scenarios from year-to-year), you are suddenly dealing with increased cash requirements of an extra 20bn to buy the annual gold mine production - which is an amount that ...eclipses the BTC marketcap. And it's just a "small" fluctuation, in the market dynamics (supply/price), of just one metal.

These type of markets and their dynamics make BTC look pretty damn small to have any serious impact on their demand. Which is good for ...upward potential.

[afbitcoins]

I think any denial of a Bitcoin ETF would be nearly 100% politically-motivated.  It would mean that they (Governments? World Powers?) simply don't want Bitcoin recognized as a legitimate long term financial instrument.  But that would be fine by me, as I think ETFs over time become corrupt, eventually holding back the underlying assets as opposed to supporting them.

This is what I think too. Who cares about an ETF? Why pay to have an IOU instead of an actual bitcoin in your wallet? If you can buy shares but can't be arsed to find out how to buy bitcoin directly then your loss.

[Karpeles]

number of unconfirmed transactions increasing pretty quickly, guess people will be talking about and block size again very soon

[HI-TEC99]

number of unconfirmed transactions increasing pretty quickly, guess people will be talking about and block size again very soon

Bitcoin price is relatively flat and it's gone back down to 4676 unconfirmed-transactions now. That leaves nothing to talk about.

[Karartma1]

According to Bitcoin Wisdom Bitcoin values still differ significantly across exchanges even if trading seems still.
Bitstamp $1059.03  BTC-e $1036  Bitfinex $1060.8  OKCoin $1045.76 Kraken $1058,10
China volume is so tiny on BTCC and OKCoin

[JayJuanGee]

number of unconfirmed transactions increasing pretty quickly, guess people will be talking about and block size again very soon

Bitcoin price is relatively flat and it's gone back down to 4676 unconfirmed-transactions now. That leaves nothing to talk about.

Yeah..

It is like we have to make shit up to talk about...

O.k... let me give this price discussion a shot.  This kind of flat price still seems kind of exciting with ongoing upwards price pressures.. maybe we have been largely recovering all the way up from the mid $700s, from early January, and the correction from that big correction in early January looks like currently we are floating in the $1045 to $1070 for the last few days.. O.k.. and then about 10 days ago we had the second smaller correction, which seems to cause a considerable decent fuel for continuing our upwards price movements.

So, from here, in the $1045 to $1070 territory, is the break going to be up or down?  and when will the breakout be?  

I am thinking that the correction attempts have already taken place and there is ongoing buying pressure, and I am saying that the odds appear a little bit better for up than down.  60% for up and 40% for down.. and that is a pretty strong sentiment from me... .. o.k. sure I could be wrong... also regarding timing, I am thinking our breakout will continue by no later than mid week, maybe Tuesday and Wednesday at the latest.  

I am also starting to think that we could get a good 50% or more above our previous ATH before we experience any 15% or more correction... maybe close to the $1800 territory.

Edit: As I type and in the past hour or so,  the price has been bouncing between 1057 and 1060, and with a current attempt of dumping down to $1050 and maybe could go lower.  I actually could see a quicky 2-3% correction (or even an attempt to test $1000 that only makes it down to $1020) before proceeding up... but yeah, if we are talking about price movements of 10% or more, then I would suggest that 10% up has a bit better chance than 10% down... that is my sense of ongoing buying pressure when I provide the 60% chance of up and 40% down.

[JayJuanGee]

According to Bitcoin Wisdom Bitcoin values still differ significantly across exchanges even if trading seems still.
Bitstamp $1059.03  BTC-e $1036  Bitfinex $1060.8  OKCoin $1045.76 Kraken $1058,10
China volume is so tiny on BTCC and OKCoin

We are going to have to start looking at the Japanese Bitflyer volume too.   It seems to be a pretty big deal.

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/japanese...-exchange/

 The above article from a few days ago is discussing the fact that three of Japan's largest banks are investing in Bitflyer.

It seems that Bitflyer is a legit and regulated exchange, but the article discusses, the BTC trade volumes on there as 5x to 10x the trade volumes of other major exchanges.

There have been some theories thrown out there about Japan taking over Chinese fake volume, but I don't think that there is actual evidence that the Japanese exchange volume is actually fake... I think that the fact of the matter is that Japan is creating a kind of regulated but friendly atmosphere for bitcoin.. at least currently.

If these BTC trade volumes are correct, then it will definitely put upwards price pressures on BTC including the USD/BTC pairs.

[podyx]

6h chart not looking too good but hopefully it's just noise

[bitcoinvest]

6h chart not looking too good but hopefully it's just noise

what just happened? i see kraken moving to 976.99 euro... this was just a small dump or we have more coming ??

EDIT: indeed the 6h and 12h chart look not good...

[K~Ehleyr]

6h chart not looking too good but hopefully it's just noise

what just happened? i see kraken moving to 976.99 euro... this was just a small dump or we have more coming ??

I know I'm just being impatient but this is starting to get quite disheartening.  Especially after I've been buying like mad to get in under €1,000 this feels like such an anti-climax!  Hopefully tomorrow when the banks reopen we might start to see more movement in the right direction 

[Ted E. Bare]

Anyone selling at the bottom?

[bitcoinvest]

6h chart not looking too good but hopefully it's just noise

what just happened? i see kraken moving to 976.99 euro... this was just a small dump or we have more coming ??

I know I'm just being impatient but this is starting to get quite disheartening.  Especially after I've been buying like mad to get in under €1,000 this feels like such an anti-climax!  Hopefully tomorrow when the banks reopen we might start to see more movement in the right direction 

until tomorrow we have many hours to trade.. and the direction now seems to be down.. why this dumps happening ? any idea?

i sold 50% at 990 euro i am afraid that this is going to continue...

[BitcoinHodler]

6h chart not looking too good but hopefully it's just noise

what just happened? i see kraken moving to 976.99 euro... this was just a small dump or we have more coming ??

EDIT: indeed the 6h and 12h chart look not good...

with the amount of FUD spam in this board saying the same copy paste crap by bots with brand new accounts, i suppose it is temporary and won't last long.
most likely the dump before the rise when tomorrow fresh money flies in the market and buys them back up.

[600watt]

6h chart not looking too good but hopefully it's just noise

what just happened? i see kraken moving to 976.99 euro... this was just a small dump or we have more coming ??

I know I'm just being impatient but this is starting to get quite disheartening.  Especially after I've been buying like mad to get in under €1,000 this feels like such an anti-climax!  Hopefully tomorrow when the banks reopen we might start to see more movement in the right direction  

until tomorrow we have many hours to trade.. and the direction now seems to be down.. why this dumps happening ? any idea?

i sold 50% at 990 euro i am afraid hoping that this is going to continue...

 ftfy.... 
it is at 991 € now. when will you get nervous about buying back? i tried what you did several times. but it always seemed a lot of stress/fear that i would end up losing btc.  

[bitcoinvest]

6h chart not looking too good but hopefully it's just noise

what just happened? i see kraken moving to 976.99 euro... this was just a small dump or we have more coming ??

I know I'm just being impatient but this is starting to get quite disheartening.  Especially after I've been buying like mad to get in under €1,000 this feels like such an anti-climax!  Hopefully tomorrow when the banks reopen we might start to see more movement in the right direction 

until tomorrow we have many hours to trade.. and the direction now seems to be down.. why this dumps happening ? any idea?

i sold 50% at 990 euro i am afraid that this is going to continue...

it is at 991 € now. when will you get nervous about buying back? i tried what you did several times. but it always seemed a lot of stress/fear that i would end up losing btc.  

i thing this dump isn't over. if you want to be calm then don't trade more than you can loose 1st rule in my opinion. secondly put the chart to 6h and you will be more calm.
nobody is going to make money for you or tell you how etc... you need take the risk...
sometimes i did risk and will 2x some times i lost...it's how the game works... but not i did not buy back and will not yet... my feeling says this dump isn't over//

[jackjack]

just another reason for dismantling the bureaucracy

Make world great again

http://www.hoax-slayer.com/putin-duma-speech-sharia-law.shtml

You're welcome

[gentlemand]

http://www.hoax-slayer.com/putin-duma-speech-sharia-law.shtml

You're welcome

Keep your reasoned facts to yourself, especially when there's bigotry on the line.

[bitcoinvest]

1st the dump...after a bounce back not strong enough and maybe now the second wave..maybe we see 2nd bottom for today? who knows...fingers crossed!

[Aviator019]

1st the dump...after a bounce back not strong enough and maybe now the second wave..maybe we see 2nd bottom for today? who knows...fingers crossed!

Soooooo downward it is... lets hope we get level stable again soon. Question for the people who actually know about these things: where is the next support we're gonna hit if this keeps going?