Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Fakhoury]

Not feeling much excitement. In spite of the price being the highest ever. Which tells me we are just getting started.

Same here, it felt like as if you are playing a video game and with that ATH you've killed the final boss and it's game over and credits are scrolling down the screen.

Although we are just starting I know, but this is my feelings nowadays 

[bitcoinminer42]

Not feeling much excitement. In spite of the price being the highest ever. Which tells me we are just getting started.

Same here, it felt like as if you are playing a video game and with that ATH you've killed the final boss and it's game over and credits are scrolling down the screen.

Although we are just starting I know, but this is my feelings nowadays 

... and then u've discovered.... it just was the first stage 

[Searing]

But I always thought their number of an ath was not acknowledged by the bitcoin community to be the real high. But a false one because it was pumped out of proportion to be justified as the ultimate ath.

yep. it's a horseshit figure. gox did not function as a normal exchange at the time. you couldn't get usd out so that's why the price was higher as bitcoin was the only way to withdraw.

i don't understand why anyone takes it seriously. it would still be cool to take it down all the same.

I also wish we would pass the Gox ATH, if only so that this question doesn't keep on getting asked here every few pages.

Yeah....I wish that as well...it is annoying.....the press imho WON'T mention beating the ATH on BTC till that mt. gox price is breached imho. NPR radio tech talk had nothing
on bitcoin going over ATH that was non gox...but man it dumps like 40 bucks and they report that!

on that thread ..now that we are at an all time high and the press has got its eyeballs to its papers and web sites from the 'yea we want btc to work crowd'

now the press says...let the FUD begin so we can get the eyeballs to our newspapers and web sites from the "it is gonna go tulips!' crowd

so the fud begins...not this fine piece of yellow journalism the title says it all (at least he is NOT subtle!)


http://gizmodo.com/bitcoin-all-time-high-1792712406

my view below in 'meme speak'

[Spaceman_Spiff]

It only takes a trillion USD market cap for $50k bitcoin. There is a total of ~$25 trillion in USA IRA's. Is it that hard to imagine global speculative bubbles that touch but do not sustain $1 trillion market cap by 2025? 2020?

0.1% of USA IRA funds ($25 billion) into the ETF bring us over $2500/BTC, and that is ignoring speculative buying by people in the trenches (us!).

you're forgetting how meaningless market cap is compared to real money.

25 billion real dollars put into bitcoin would push the price far beyond $2500. right now you could probably reach that price on the exchanges by spending 50-100 million dollars in one shot.

and if sellers sniffed out that there was a buyer with money to burn they'd go on strike and push the price up even further.

Only short term, in the long run, I think market cap is a very useful measure (it might only take a small amount of money to push up a market cap by a big amount, but then you are counting on people not cashing out, which might not happen short term, but long term.... )

haha we think alike:

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There are two ways to think about the relationship between market cap and how much "real money" is invested into bitcoin.

1) short term. ECB is correct to point out that an injection of 25 billion dollars of "real money" would drive the price to the moon in the short term, due to liquidity issues.

2) long term. If you think in terms of steady state conditions, then cmacwiz's reasoning makes perfect sense.

Great minds huh  .  Funny that I overlooked your post (I guess because I was a bit drunk).

[bitcoinvest]

Good morning bitcoin land!!! again not sleep how need at night because of the charts...

seriously now need price go $2000 to have a good sleep and sweet dreams

any way! Kraken now at ~1118€ nice!!!

[gentlemand]

Same here, it felt like as if you are playing a video game and with that ATH you've killed the final boss and it's game over and credits are scrolling down the screen.

Although we are just starting I know, but this is my feelings nowadays  

Uncharted territory is the main feeling I'm getting.

We got an ATH with China having effectively banned itself, though perhaps that wouldn't have been achieved without that happening, and it's sitting quietly at this price level with little attention elsewhere.

Does this mean 2014-15 beat the exuberance out of everyone? or maybe they expect much, much more and this is a small and overdue step towards it.

[uki]

It only takes a trillion USD market cap for $50k bitcoin. There is a total of ~$25 trillion in USA IRA's. Is it that hard to imagine global speculative bubbles that touch but do not sustain $1 trillion market cap by 2025? 2020?

0.1% of USA IRA funds ($25 billion) into the ETF bring us over $2500/BTC, and that is ignoring speculative buying by people in the trenches (us!).

you're forgetting how meaningless market cap is compared to real money.

25 billion real dollars put into bitcoin would push the price far beyond $2500. right now you could probably reach that price on the exchanges by spending 50-100 million dollars in one shot.

and if sellers sniffed out that there was a buyer with money to burn they'd go on strike and push the price up even further.

Market cap notion used in Bitcoin (and altcoin) sphere is a pure nonsense. It is extremely misleading to multiply the current price by the number of coins, thinking (wishfully) that all of the coins can be, all of a sudden, sold at this price.

There are two ways to think about the relationship between market cap and how much "real money" is invested into bitcoin.

1) short term. ECB is correct to point out that an injection of 25 billion dollars of "real money" would drive the price to the moon in the short term, due to liquidity issues.

2) long term. If you think in terms of steady state conditions, then cmacwiz's reasoning makes perfect sense.

Great to see that we are on the same page with that.
It is mostly about liquidity, as this is what really matters in the end. Be it for (paper) gold, stocks or Bitcoin.

[K~Ehleyr]

Maybe the market is now just waiting to see what the SEC says and what effect that will have...

[bitcoinvest]

The meeting is 11 of March right?
That means we have exactly 2 weeks from now. Is this normal for USA to hold such meetings on Suturday? it's working day?? and result will be same day or need also wait?

[LLec]

The meeting is 11 of March right?
That means we have exactly 2 weeks from now. Is this normal for USA to hold such meetings on Suturday? it's working day?? and result will be same day or need also wait?

It falls on a Saturday?  
What is that about? They going for donuts and coffee before this formal meeting.
Having it scheduling it on that day doesn't make it sound they are taking it too seriously. Because we all know that business days are Monday-Friday and the weekend are when government officials and their federal workers are off those days but they still get paid.
So is it just a 1 minute meeting of a "yey" or "ney" vote and then they all go to McDonald's afterwards to finish their McCafe's and hot apple pies?
They get paid anyways even if it is 1 minute or 1 hour or not even showing up.
Cause it is out of their own time cause they are "not on the clock" so to speak over the weekends which is essentially "their own time".

[gentlemand]

The meeting is 11 of March right?
That means we have exactly 2 weeks from now. Is this normal for USA to hold such meetings on Suturday? it's working day?? and result will be same day or need also wait?

That's the decision deadline. There's no associated meeting. They might already have made up their minds. Falling on a Saturday is a bit of a weird move indeed. I've read elsewhere that no ETF has ever passed by doing nothing, which is what some people are expecting here, and there's no way something so new and complex would pass like that either.

We'll know either way before that Saturday I expect.

[craked5]

The meeting is 11 of March right?
That means we have exactly 2 weeks from now. Is this normal for USA to hold such meetings on Suturday? it's working day?? and result will be same day or need also wait?

That's the decision deadline. There's no associated meeting. They might already have made up their minds. Falling on a Saturday is a bit of a weird move indeed. I've read elsewhere that no ETF has ever passed by doing nothing, which is what some people are expecting here, and there's no way something so new and complex would pass like that either.

We'll know either way before that Saturday I expect.

Absolutely no way ETF goes through.

But you think it will have an effect? Why should it makes btc rate drop? Any correct trader knows the chances are low no?

[gentlemand]

Absolutely no way ETF goes through.

But you think it will have an effect? Why should it makes btc rate drop? Any correct trader knows the chances are low no?

Stranger things have happened. And that big meeting they had a couple of weeks ago are not the actions of something that's been outright rejected. They want to know more.

I think quite a few people have bought in with the expectation of a further rise if it's approved. Maybe they'll throw in the towel. There'll be a dip. A full on crash is doubtful as ETF fever is only part of the general uptrend that's been going for a long time now.

And there are two more applications to consider in quick succession after the Winklevii one. I doubt they'll have the gloss, but perhaps they'll add some refinements. Overall though I think rejections will be down to Bitcoin itself and no applicant can do anything about that.

[K~Ehleyr]

I don't think we can be so sure it won't.  I still think TPTB might see the ETF as an initial step towards gaining a handle on bitcoin.  Like Google's strategy of controlling the primary gateway to the internet, an ETF would be a government-controlled gateway into bitcoin, and as the gateway used by very wealthy non-techie types, it would be a very important gateway to control.

I hadn't twigged that the 11th is a Saturday... how odd... I wonder if that means in real terms that we'll know the outcome by close of business on the Friday...

[bitcoinvest]

IF i repeat IF the decision will come out Saturday in many ways can give opportunity to insiders make a tone of money.... do you see the same picture on that or only i am?

[HI-TEC99]

The meeting is 11 of March right?
That means we have exactly 2 weeks from now. Is this normal for USA to hold such meetings on Suturday? it's working day?? and result will be same day or need also wait?

That's the decision deadline. There's no associated meeting. They might already have made up their minds. Falling on a Saturday is a bit of a weird move indeed. I've read elsewhere that no ETF has ever passed by doing nothing, which is what some people are expecting here, and there's no way something so new and complex would pass like that either.

We'll know either way before that Saturday I expect.

Absolutely no way ETF goes through.

But you think it will have an effect? Why should it makes btc rate drop? Any correct trader knows the chances are low no?

I remember there was a crash after one of the US marshals auctions, and most of us expected a crash after another, but there was a rally instead. It's difficult predicting Bitcoin's price movements, and it often does the opposite of what's expected. There could even be a pump after an ETF rejection, although most of us expect rejection to lead to a dump.

[K~Ehleyr]

The meeting is 11 of March right?
That means we have exactly 2 weeks from now. Is this normal for USA to hold such meetings on Suturday? it's working day?? and result will be same day or need also wait?

That's the decision deadline. There's no associated meeting. They might already have made up their minds. Falling on a Saturday is a bit of a weird move indeed. I've read elsewhere that no ETF has ever passed by doing nothing, which is what some people are expecting here, and there's no way something so new and complex would pass like that either.

We'll know either way before that Saturday I expect.

Absolutely no way ETF goes through.

But you think it will have an effect? Why should it makes btc rate drop? Any correct trader knows the chances are low no?

I remember there was a crash after one of the US marshals auctions, and most of us expected a crash after another, but there was a rally instead. It's difficult predicting Bitcoin's price movements, and it often does the opposite of what's expected. There could even be a pump after an ETF rejection, although most of us expect rejection to lead to a dump.

This is exactly why I suspect the market is now just waiting to find out.  Nobody can be sure what effect a decision either way will have on bitcoin, but by now most people will have positioned themselves according to how they think it will play out and, unless some other factor comes into play in the meantime, I suspect we're just going to hover around here until the 11th, poised to respond to whatever happens then.

[Karartma1]

IF i repeat IF the decision will come out Saturday in many ways can give opportunity to insiders make a tone of money.... do you see the same picture on that or only i am?

https://www.bitmex.com/app/trade/COIN_BH17
Want to bet on it?

By the way, if I recall it correctly the decision deadline is on March 11th but there are chances this can be decided by March 11th which makes a big difference. IMHO we will know the end of the story on March 13th: and we'll probably see what does it mean to do insider trading.
If there will be no decision by the 11th and big buys will start you'll probably know what to do.
Exciting times, indeed.

[edgar]

all this up n down is making me seasick!!

[starmman]

all this up n down is making me seasick!!

Haha, I like a nice bit of volatility =) Volume still didn't hit what we saw at the start of Jan - could be quite a bit more to come