Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[r0ach]

I will sell when:

1) rpeitila announces the renovation of his castle

2) Goat buys a new car

I'll happily dump for silver at peak of ETF approval pump (if such a thing is approved).  And why - my long term macro view on the subect (not to be confused with short term view):

The fact that bitcoin can be so called "upgraded", which really just means changed, means it's not anti-fragile by default.  Being able to be changed is a actually a bad thing that makes it not anti-fragile, or fungible, or money in the first place.  It's why crypto will always be cryptocurrency and never money.  We are all just fascinated by complex Rube Goldberg machines.  Obfuscate something to the nth degree until nobody knows what it's traits really are or what it's really doing.

Ok, time to pump this here coin.  Oh, what's that?  In order to believe it doesn't have value someone is required to have a computer science degree and then spend years dissecting it's traits in order to figure that out?  And even then, multiple computer science majors will have completely differing opinions because it's almost impossible to be a master in all required subjects?  Perfect, let's create an ETF before anyone discovers.

Money is something that can't arbitrarily be changed by some guy on a random whim when he wakes up in the morning...or change the security model to something else entirely.  Money can't transform to something completely different at random.  Why is bitcoin not banned?  Because the govt loves people wasting their time with currency instead of having actual money.  That and the fact that it's designed as a 1984 tracking system by default.

Bitcoin is also a CURRENCY, not money, just like any attempt to replace bitcoin will also be a currency.  CURRENCY has never been a good investment on a long timeline ever.  Currency never holds value.  It doesn't matter if it's bitcoin or anonymint coin, they all implode to worthless.  They are RECEIPTS for money.  

[Lauda]

I'll happily dump for silver at peak of ETF approval pump (if such a thing is approved).

Simply put: You're a delusional metal bagholder. It seems that you're on the wrong forum and I have no idea why you aren't banned for off-topic/trolling.
Correction time? $1240 being tested.

[r0ach]

I'll happily dump for silver at peak of ETF approval pump (if such a thing is approved).

Simply put: You're a delusional metal bagholder. It seems that you're on the wrong forum

Delusional is when you are unable to identify fundamentals and are on an investment-centric forum.  Comparing bitcoin vs metals fundamentals is also completely on-topic to price discussion.  Like I said before, the market can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent, but on a long enough timeline, bitcoin should behave as a currency and not "money".  Currencies are typically not stores of value.  

It has taken me a LONG TIME to really do a thorough analysis of bitcoin because there are just far too many variables, but there it is.  For most of the time I was focused on complete red herrings like the consensus systems and nash equilibrium, but most of that is just smoke and mirrors to obfuscate the fact that nobody can really get rid of a centralizing power vacuum force.  Instead of make believing that some new change is going to improve things, the proper analysis is that the ability to be so called "upgraded", which just means changed, is nothing but a negative in the first place.

[Biodom]

None of my friends have mentioned bitcoin to me recently.

Now...these are the friends I was boring back in 2013/14 about it and when the shit hit the fan and it dropped to $200 I bought them all up. My friends know this.

This has all happened and not one of my mates has asked or text me about bitcoin.

Is this because:-

A. They all know the price now and don't want to talk about it as they feel sick knowing they laughed and made jokes.

B. They haven't even heard the news as the media have hardly reported on it.

C. They hate me and never liked me in the first place bitcoin or no bitcoin.

I always tell my friends that i will not give them buy/sell advice and I never do.
However, I did notice the same thing-nobody talked about it with me since last summer ($400).
I'll go with B, though. Maybe a little of A for some.
Ask a random guy on the street-they wouldn't now.
Older folks are into paypal, younger-venmo.

[European Central Bank]

I always tell my friends that i will not give them buy/sell advice and I never do.

i've given people btc. i'll never help them buy any or advise them about it. way too many potential problems with zero upside.

[JimboToronto]

I see we had another little correction.

Okay, that's enough corrections. Time to start moving up again.

 

[Punisher1314]

Possible floor at @1239$ on stamp, let's check it again after some hours. That was the Gold price this morning (1234$ right now), so it can be a good signal that the markets approve that btc > gold, but let's see if it is in the short term or in the long one.

Btw what are now saying those gold-supporter twitter accounts bearing about btc?  

[Torque]

None of my friends have mentioned bitcoin to me recently.

Now...these are the friends I was boring back in 2013/14 about it and when the shit hit the fan and it dropped to $200 I bought them all up. My friends know this.

This has all happened and not one of my mates has asked or text me about bitcoin.

Is this because:-

A. They all know the price now and don't want to talk about it as they feel sick knowing they laughed and made jokes.

B. They haven't even heard the news as the media have hardly reported on it.

C. They hate me and never liked me in the first place bitcoin or no bitcoin.

haha same here. I entered in bitcoin world in nov. 2013, and bought my first bitcoin on the top. Ande then lost in cuz I've been goxed.
But then I was more cautious, bought almost all of my stash at 200$.
Now all of my friends and family regrets that they didn't invested back then.
And some are asking me to invest their money now   And I'm like: Really do you want to be the fool who buys on the top and sells at the bottom? And they still want to invest...

Ask them if the price drops, at what price will they decide to sell. Like if it drops back to $200 are they going to sell. If they say yes then tell them they have to be prepared to ride it ALL THE WAY TO ZERO without selling. If they're not ready to do that, I would say I won't help them because the only certainty is that it's going to be VERY volatile.

I did help a friend buy some in 2014 at $600, who sold at just over $200 because he couldn't stomach the drop. Never again.

Bitcoin is a lot like the movie 'Fight Club'.



The First Rule of Bitcoin is: You do not talk to friends, family, or colleagues about Bitcoin.

The Second Rule of Bitcoin is: You do NOT talk to friends, family, or colleagues about Bitcoin!!!

[rjclarke2000]

The media is loving the whole SnapChat bullshit I see. Gone up this much etc etc. Shares up this much yardy yarr

Bitcoin..........tumbleweed.......


Seriously though WTF is it with the news and Bitcoin? It's quite unbelievable.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I will sell when:

1) rpeitila announces the renovation of his castle

2) Goat buys a new car

Confirmed ... usually the major exchange/web-wallet/centralised service of the time has some kind of seizure also, hack, withdrawl limits, freeze on trading, etc ... as it ever was.

I'm seeing $1280 resistance, ~$1250 support ...



... not bad.

[Torque]

The media is loving the whole SnapChat bullshit I see. Gone up this much etc etc. Shares up this much yardy yarr

Bitcoin..........tumbleweed.......


Seriously though WTF is it with the news and Bitcoin? It's quite unbelievable.

SnapChat's stock chart will look pretty much just like Twitter's within 24 months.

[Biodom]

Possible floor at @1939$ on stamp, let's check it again after some hours. That was the Gold price this morning (1934$ right now), so it can be a good signal that the markets approve that btc > gold, but let's see if it is in the short term or in the long one.

Btw what are now saying those gold-supporter twitter accounts bearing about btc?  

$1939? Back from the Future part unknown?
maybe some other $$, not USD  

[marcus_of_augustus]

None of my friends have mentioned bitcoin to me recently.

Now...these are the friends I was boring back in 2013/14 about it and when the shit hit the fan and it dropped to $200 I bought them all up. My friends know this.

This has all happened and not one of my mates has asked or text me about bitcoin.

Is this because:-

A. They all know the price now and don't want to talk about it as they feel sick knowing they laughed and made jokes.

B. They haven't even heard the news as the media have hardly reported on it.

C. They hate me and never liked me in the first place bitcoin or no bitcoin.

haha same here. I entered in bitcoin world in nov. 2013, and bought my first bitcoin on the top. Ande then lost in cuz I've been goxed.
But then I was more cautious, bought almost all of my stash at 200$.
Now all of my friends and family regrets that they didn't invested back then.
And some are asking me to invest their money now   And I'm like: Really do you want to be the fool who buys on the top and sells at the bottom? And they still want to invest...

Ask them if the price drops, at what price will they decide to sell. Like if it drops back to $200 are they going to sell. If they say yes then tell them they have to be prepared to ride it ALL THE WAY TO ZERO without selling. If they're not ready to do that, I would say I won't help them because the only certainty is that it's going to be VERY volatile.

I did help a friend buy some in 2014 at $600, who sold at just over $200 because he couldn't stomach the drop. Never again.

Bitcoin is a lot like the movie 'Fight Club'.

The First Rule of Bitcoin is: You do not talk to friends, family, or colleagues about Bitcoin.

The Second Rule of Bitcoin is: You do NOT talk to friends, family, or colleagues about Bitcoin!!!

What's the secret handshake these days?

[julian071]

None of my friends have mentioned bitcoin to me recently.

Now...these are the friends I was boring back in 2013/14 about it and when the shit hit the fan and it dropped to $200 I bought them all up. My friends know this.

This has all happened and not one of my mates has asked or text me about bitcoin.

Is this because:-

A. They all know the price now and don't want to talk about it as they feel sick knowing they laughed and made jokes.

B. They haven't even heard the news as the media have hardly reported on it.

C. They hate me and never liked me in the first place bitcoin or no bitcoin.

haha same here. I entered in bitcoin world in nov. 2013, and bought my first bitcoin on the top. Ande then lost in cuz I've been goxed.
But then I was more cautious, bought almost all of my stash at 200$.
Now all of my friends and family regrets that they didn't invested back then.
And some are asking me to invest their money now   And I'm like: Really do you want to be the fool who buys on the top and sells at the bottom? And they still want to invest...

Ask them if the price drops, at what price will they decide to sell. Like if it drops back to $200 are they going to sell. If they say yes then tell them they have to be prepared to ride it ALL THE WAY TO ZERO without selling. If they're not ready to do that, I would say I won't help them because the only certainty is that it's going to be VERY volatile.

I did help a friend buy some in 2014 at $600, who sold at just over $200 because he couldn't stomach the drop. Never again.

Bitcoin is a lot like the movie 'Fight Club'.

The First Rule of Bitcoin is: You do not talk to friends, family, or colleagues about Bitcoin.

The Second Rule of Bitcoin is: You do NOT talk to friends, family, or colleagues about Bitcoin!!!

What's the secret handshake these days?

You don't shake hands you just do this:

[BTCtrader71]

It has taken me a LONG TIME to really do a thorough analysis of bitcoin because there are just far too many variables, but there it is.

To what extent does your analysis rest on the assertion that bitcoin can

... arbitrarily be changed by some guy on a random whim when he wakes up in the morning...

?

Because that is really not a fair summary of the situation. Which I am sure you know without me telling you. But I wonder whether your analysis is fully settled (in your own mind) ...

[AZwarel]

What is up with the gold parity and Gox ATH and so?
Just asking.

Gox ATH was an imaginary ceiling, and breaking it is closure. Any holder of bitcoin EVER is now in the green.

Now 1 arbitrary unit of account (a BTC), in a decentralized protocol thought up and developed from nothing more than an idea, is worth more than an oz of GOLD... In <10 years.

Naysayers have never been grasping at straws like now.

I have been thinking/reading about this lately. My conclusion is that gold is nothing more than a vanity asset, and will never reach the "promise land" while bitcoin can. Here are the things to consider why i have reached this conclusion:

1. Potential for increased adoption for Store of value:

Gold was and is a store of value for thousands of years. That sound like a plus, but, actually that shows gold has no 100 millions of future adopters ahead of it. Everyone knows gold, especially governments want to hoard it (which should raise a red flag, it means they think/will act on to control it). Young people (20-40), apart from India and similar low economic wealth societies, has no interest in hoarding gold.

Bitcoin - as for any other technological adaptation cycle shows us - has no upper limit on the number of potential investors, 99.99% of the population has still no clue what is it, also, it can adapt to any human behavior, unlike gold, which has fixed, "intrinsic" properties (and hence fixed, unsolvable limitations, like weight, space, which lead to fractional paper gold reserves already, unlike bitcoin, where everyone can instantly proof, that his bitcoin exists, and only he has control over it).

2. Liquidity and actual economic activity:

Gold has no practical economic use (actually, the fact that it can be used in electronics, medicine and art makes it less "money")
in everyday life. No gold coin can realistically be used to pay for goods/services in a "Monday morning coffee" situation. The only way to release the economic value from gold holdings is to trade it - with much hassle, limited trading hours, extremely limited and actual physical presence in a gold "pawn shop" - for a more liquid asset, like USD or *cough* bitcoin. While this ain't that such a big deal for long time holders, still, compared to "digital gold", the premium for physicality is huge in comparison.

Bitcoin is a different animal, a perfect embodiment of the Informational Age sentiment, waaay more liquid in real life market events - by that i mean: i can actually use my bitcoins for beer, food, groceries, etc., right now(!), while my gold bars can not be used directly for any payment, or transferred through the globe, 0-24h. Bitcoin leaves gold in the dustbin of history regarding actual economic activity, and, you can not upgrade the "features" of gold, unlike bitcoin's.

TLDR; for an investor, there is no logical reason based on the above, to postulate a 10x value increase in 5 years for gold, while there are many reasons to do it for bitcoin. Hence, as a long term store of value, "digital gold" beats old school gold, and the opportunity cost of holding one of them is in an obvious non equilibrium in favor of bitcoin, which will start a self generating cycle of gold investment ---> bitcoin investment.

[Punisher1314]

Possible floor at @1939$ on stamp, let's check it again after some hours. That was the Gold price this morning (1934$ right now), so it can be a good signal that the markets approve that btc > gold, but let's see if it is in the short term or in the long one.

Btw what are now saying those gold-supporter twitter accounts bearing about btc?  

$1939? Back from the Future part unknown?
maybe some other $$, not USD  

Shit, reedited lol, i meant 1239$.
Watching this thread from early 2013 but i am a noob posting   

[cmacwiz]

What is up with the gold parity and Gox ATH and so?
Just asking.

Gox ATH was an imaginary ceiling, and breaking it is closure. Any holder of bitcoin EVER is now in the green.

Now 1 arbitrary unit of account (a BTC), in a decentralized protocol thought up and developed from nothing more than an idea, is worth more than an oz of GOLD... In <10 years.

Naysayers have never been grasping at straws like now.

I have been thinking/reading about this lately. My conclusion is that gold is nothing more than a vanity asset, and will never reach the "promise land" while bitcoin can. Here are the things to consider why i have reached this conclusion:

1. Potential for increased adoption for Store of value:

Gold was and is a store of value for thousands of years. That sound like a plus, but, actually that shows gold has no 100 millions of future adopters ahead of it. Everyone knows gold, especially governments want to hoard it (which should raise a red flag, it means they think/will act on to control it). Young people (20-40), apart from India and similar low economic wealth societies, has no interest in hoarding gold.

Bitcoin - as for any other technological adaptation cycle shows us - has no upper limit on the number of potential investors, 99.99% of the population has still no clue what is it, also, it can adapt to any human behavior, unlike gold, which has fixed, "intrinsic" properties (and hence fixed, unsolvable limitations, like weight, space, which lead to fractional paper gold reserves already, unlike bitcoin, where everyone can instantly proof, that his bitcoin exists, and only he has control over it).

2. Liquidity and actual economic activity:

Gold has no practical economic use (actually, the fact that it can be used in electronics, medicine and art makes it less "money")
in everyday life. No gold coin can realistically be used to pay for goods/services in a "Monday morning coffee" situation. The only way to release the economic value from gold holdings is to trade it - with much hassle, limited trading hours, extremely limited and actual physical presence in a gold "pawn shop" - for a more liquid asset, like USD or *cough* bitcoin. While this ain't that such a big deal for long time holders, still, compared to "digital gold", the premium for physicality is huge in comparison.

Bitcoin is a different animal, a perfect embodiment of the Informational Age sentiment, waaay more liquid in real life market events - by that i mean: i can actually use my bitcoins for beer, food, groceries, etc., right now(!), while my gold bars can not be used directly for any payment, or transferred through the globe, 0-24h. Bitcoin leaves gold in the dustbin of history regarding actual economic activity, and, you can not upgrade the "features" of gold, unlike bitcoin's.

TLDR; for an investor, there is no logical reason based on the above, to postulate a 10x value increase in 5 years for gold, while there are many reasons to do it for bitcoin. Hence, as a long term store of value, "digital gold" beats old school gold, and the opportunity cost of holding one of them is in an obvious non equilibrium in favor of bitcoin, which will start a self generating cycle of gold investment ---> bitcoin investment.

keep going, I'm almost there...

All kidding aside, I love this sentiment. It does work the other way though. Bitcoin is eventually going to be priced above it's realizable potential and that tipping point will hurt big time. I think this is to come in 10 years or so...

[Ted E. Bare]

Bottom at $1250, I confirm.

[InvoKing]

Bottom at $1250, I confirm.

Gdax leading with $1270 and the others between $1257 and $1270 except btc-e
And look to the Chinese - $100 difference lol, between $1150-1180