Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Denker]

Impressive rebound to 'normal' so fast  

This is indeed impressive. In just 3 days we moved over $500.At first 300 down and then 200 up.
That's the reason why Bitcoin is the greatest rollercoaster. Nothing for people with weak nerves!

[Nagadota]

Impressive rebound to 'normal' so fast 

Kwukduck must be quaking in his boots.  I'm thinking the price is headed for another rally and ATH. 

Looks possible that it could just barely top $2,000 next week, and hover from $1900-2000 for a while.

[bitserve]

Impressive rebound to 'normal' so fast  

This is indeed impressive. In just 3 days we moved over $500.At first 300 down and then 200 up.
That's the reason why Bitcoin is the greatest rollercoaster. Nothing for people with weak nerves!

But it was a daily volatility of around 5-15% . At this heights, we need to get used to relate it to its percentage change and not the single dollars change. Imagine when Bitcoin prices in the several thousands.

[Lauda]

Impressive rebound to 'normal' so fast 

I must say that it is. My own "best-case" scenario was sticking above $1700 for a while, but here we are already around $1800. Prepare for the negative comments of the people who sold at the bottom though.

But it was a daily volatility of around 5-15% . At this heights, we need to get used to relate it to its percentage change and not the single dollars change. Imagine when Bitcoin prices in the several thousands.

The volatility is pretty low nowadays. Historical volatility is less than 3%.

[Nagadota]

But it was a daily volatility of around 5-15% . At this heights, we need to get used to relate it to its percentage change and not the single dollars change. Imagine when Bitcoin prices in the several thousands.

The volatility is pretty low nowadays. Historical volatility is less than 3%.

True, but the particular way that it's volatile may scare a lot of weak hands and institutional investors who are used to more stable growth.  The volatility may only be 2-3% (it's risen since the recent rallies from about 1.5%), but the difference is that during the day it could randomly drop $150 and then fly back up again.

The fundamentals are pretty off the rails as well and nothing is ever really predictable (Poloniex, ETFs, scaling etc).

Bitcoin volatility is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy - people get scared of the volatility which makes them panic sell/buy, making it more volatile.

[kurious]

Impressive rebound to 'normal' so fast 

I must say that it is. My own "best-case" scenario was sticking above $1700 for a while, but here we are already around $1800. Prepare for the negative comments of the people who sold at the bottom though.

But it was a daily volatility of around 5-15% . At this heights, we need to get used to relate it to its percentage change and not the single dollars change. Imagine when Bitcoin prices in the several thousands.

The volatility is pretty low nowadays. Historical volatility is less than 3%.

Low?  It's only low compared to alts - compared to stocks, currencies, PMs, commodities.... it doesn't look it!

[Lauda]

True, but the particular way that it's volatile may scare a lot of weak hands and institutional investors who are used to more stable growth. 

You are telling me things that I have known for years. I don't really care about people led by emotions such as the two types listed by you.

Bitcoin volatility is kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy - people get scared of the volatility which makes them panic sell/buy, making it more volatile.

I can agree with this.

Low?  It's only low compared to alts - compared to stocks, currencies, PMs, commodities.... it doesn't look it!

You do realize that it recently, albeit briefly, had a lower volatility than the Euro? Anything sub 5% in the historic volatility (as per that website) is great. Furthermore, Bitcoin seems to be on the track to reach standard currency volatility.

[DeathAngel]

Impressively quick recovery, I'm hoping for & looking forward to another rally in the coming week.

[JayJuanGee]

 

Low?  It's only low compared to alts - compared to stocks, currencies, PMs, commodities.... it doesn't look it!

You do realize that it recently, albeit briefly, had a lower volatility than the Euro? Anything sub 5% in the historic volatility (as per that website) is great. Furthermore, Bitcoin seems to be on the track to reach standard currency volatility.

Yes.... The M1 ranking of bitcoin is slowly becoming higher and higher and higher, and the M1 ranking demonstrates a bit of the increasing marking cap.  Of course, an increasing market cap will make manipulaiton more difficult and decrease volatility.


  A year ago, Bitcoin's M1 ranking was close to 100, and recently, in the $1800 price territory, Bitcoin's M1 ranking is around 59.  Maybe going to be in the top 50 M1 rankings, soon.

[HI-TEC99]

Bitstamp's crashed slightly below the $1800 ATH from three days ago again!

[gbianchi]

  A year ago, Bitcoin's M1 ranking was close to 100, and recently, in the $1800 price territory, Bitcoin's M1 ranking is around 59.  Maybe going to be in the top 50 M1 rankings, soon.

where you take the rank ?

I know about coinometrics but it is broken now....

[Ted E. Bare]

Got to love those bear traps.

[spooderman]

calling the actual bubble pop at around $3k-$4k

[Meuh6879]

where you take the rank ?

M2 = https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2215rank.html

Result in M2 =

M2 is a broader money classification than M1, because it includes assets that are highly liquid but are not cash.

A consumer or business typically doesn't use savings deposits and other non-M1 components of M2 when making purchases or paying bills, but it could convert them to cash in relatively short order.

M1 and M2 are closely related, and economists like to include the more broadly defined definition for M2 when discussing the money supply, because modern economies often involve transfers between different account types.



For example, a business may transfer $10,000 from a money market account to its checking account. This transfer would increase M1, which doesn’t include money market funds, while keeping M2 stable, since M2 contains money market accounts.

Read more: M2 http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp

M1 = https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2214rank.html

[Torque]

Many years ago ever when I learned about Bitcoin and invested in it, I thought I was a late adopter. But I promised to myself never mention it to family, friends and colleagues due to the controversial nature and not wanting to get them involved. I figured that eventually they would hear about it on their own, and decide for themselves if Bitcoin was worthy to buy and use or not.

In all those years I never heard anyone that I'm close to mention it.

Recently though, a family member that is disconnected from news, and fairly uninformed about technology or even current world events just mentioned the word "Bitcoin" the other day for the first time. I was shocked. And then I smiled to myself.

It's happening.  

[BTCtrader71]

Many years ago ever when I learned about Bitcoin and invested in it, I thought I was a late adopter. But I promised to myself never mention it to family, friends and colleagues due to the controversial nature and not wanting to get them involved. I figured that eventually they would hear about it on their own, and decide for themselves if Bitcoin was worthy to buy and use or not.

In all those years I never heard anyone that I'm close to mention it.

Recently though, a family member that is disconnected from news, and fairly uninformed about technology or even current world events just mentioned the word "Bitcoin" the other day for the first time. I was shocked. And then I smiled to myself.

It's happening.  

I couldn't stop myself from telling friends and family about it starting early 2013. Several bought, and several even hodl'd, to their credit. One panic sold at a profit, another panic sold at a loss but then bought some alts and made up for his losses.

Only one family member reacted negatively. Venomously, you might say. That family member .... is the one economist of the family. I have to bite my tongue now during conversations with her. Go figure.

The one friend who bought (in 2013, at 400) and then panic sold (in 2014, at 600) is thinking of buying back in and wants my help doing so. Why now? Because the price is shooting up, like in 2013. He probably won't get around to it until $4000, and then he'll panic sell at 6000 on the way down after the 10k peak ... It's one reason that it feels kinda like 2013 to me now.

[European Central Bank]

far better to keep it to yourself. people get very very weird about money. better not infect those closest to you with more of it.

[Iranus]

far better to keep it to yourself. people get very very weird about money. better not infect those closest to you with more of it.

I would say mention it once or twice.  If they're interested, let them find out more themselves, otherwise they'll blame you if they screw it up.  If they're not interested, leave it alone or you'll end up getting pissed off by their cocky attitude whenever there's a slight dip in price and their pedantic criticisms.

[monsanto]

Many years ago ever when I learned about Bitcoin and invested in it, I thought I was a late adopter. But I promised to myself never mention it to family, friends and colleagues due to the controversial nature and not wanting to get them involved. I figured that eventually they would hear about it on their own, and decide for themselves if Bitcoin was worthy to buy and use or not.

In all those years I never heard anyone that I'm close to mention it.

Recently though, a family member that is disconnected from news, and fairly uninformed about technology or even current world events just mentioned the word "Bitcoin" the other day for the first time. I was shocked. And then I smiled to myself.

they're just trying to figure out how to pay off the ransomware 

[Chainsaw]

Many years ago ever when I learned about Bitcoin and invested in it, I thought I was a late adopter. But I promised to myself never mention it to family, friends and colleagues due to the controversial nature and not wanting to get them involved. I figured that eventually they would hear about it on their own, and decide for themselves if Bitcoin was worthy to buy and use or not.

In all those years I never heard anyone that I'm close to mention it.

Recently though, a family member that is disconnected from news, and fairly uninformed about technology or even current world events just mentioned the word "Bitcoin" the other day for the first time. I was shocked. And then I smiled to myself.

It's happening.  

Same. They never buy until the rallies start. The majority of people need empirical evidence - logic, reason, probabilities, or risk/reward scenarios do not suffice.

The intensity and strength of the bull market to date has me favoring a multi-month+ bull scenario from here.
somethingsomething next few weeks are critical ;-)