Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[starmman]

This was an impressive shakeout.
Reminds me of the one in the week of 18th Nov 2013, it crashed down from a top of 800 to 450, everyone was like: "That's it, it's over guys, bubble has popped."
Then it slowly resumed the climb, at some point the sellers had to buy back in, and this baby went from 450 to 1200 

A similar scenario might be unfolding right now.
I think this rally is not over yet.

I managed to pick up a few extra coins during the drop - almost back to my pre-crash USD levels already, was hoping price would drop a bit further though, nice couple of days trading =)

[simmo77]

This was an impressive shakeout.
Reminds me of the one in the week of 18th Nov 2013, it crashed down from a top of 800 to 450, everyone was like: "That's it, it's over guys, bubble has popped."
Then it slowly resumed the climb, at some point the sellers had to buy back in, and this baby went from 450 to 1200  

A similar scenario might be unfolding right now.
I think this rally is not over yet.

If it does rally again in the same fashion as you are describing, it will also be headed for a large, deep correction (exactly what happened after 1200). What would be "better" would be some sideways for a while.

We both know that won't happen though.

It will be either:

1 - FOMO re-engages, it goes parabolic, then it dumps and we see another protracted bear market. Some people make a mint, more castles are bought, most lose a shit-ton of money and it results in more damage to trust in BTC and crypto as a whole.

2 - This is "Return to Normal", rally loses steam, more dumps but less risk of a long term bear market and much less damage overall.

We'll know in the next 12h I think.

I'm betting on option 2

Anyone else care to place their bets?

[simmo77]

Who sold at the bottom?

You stopped posting that for a little while there. Feeling confident again?

[Asrael999]

This was an impressive shakeout.
Reminds me of the one in the week of 18th Nov 2013, it crashed down from a top of 800 to 450, everyone was like: "That's it, it's over guys, bubble has popped."
Then it slowly resumed the climb, at some point the sellers had to buy back in, and this baby went from 450 to 1200  

A similar scenario might be unfolding right now.
I think this rally is not over yet.

If it does rally again in the same fashion as you are describing, it will also be headed for a large, deep correction (exactly what happened after 1200). What would be "better" would be some sideways for a while.

We both know that won't happen though.

It will be either:

1 - FOMO re-engages, it goes parabolic, then it dumps and we see another protracted bear market. Some people make a mint, more castles are bought, most lose a shit-ton of money and it results in more damage to trust in BTC and crypto as a whole.

2 - This is "Return to Normal", rally loses steam, more dumps but less risk of a long term bear market and much less damage overall.

We'll know in the next 12h I think.



Anyone else care to place their bets?

We still look in bubble territory to me - I agree the long-term danger is re-ignition and a blast to the $3.5-5k area, followed by a protracted bear market that retraces back to the triple digits before the next cycle can engage around the next halving. This assumes that Bitcoin is not out evolved by something else by then. Don't discount what another loss of confidence in BTC could do, given the proliferation of alternatives out there now.

[d5000]

It will be either:

1 - FOMO re-engages, it goes parabolic, then it dumps and we see another protracted bear market. Some people make a mint, more castles are bought, most lose a shit-ton of money and it results in more damage to trust in BTC and crypto as a whole.

2 - This is "Return to Normal", rally loses steam, more dumps but less risk of a long term bear market and much less damage overall.

I'm also voting for option 2. The target is 2400-2500 USD on Bitstamp. Only if there are really bullish fundamental news (resolution of the blocksize war, for example) I see a breakout over 2700.

My prediction I made some days ago (e.g. here) has until now be pretty good:

- first stop of the downmove (after the second 2300-2400 bounce): $2000 (it was $2001)
- a little rise to $2200-2500 (ok, it was only 2160 but not too bad)
- dump down to $1800 (1850 held)
- "the real dead cat" going up to $2500 - that's what we're seing now.

So - enjoy the ride but be careful - especially if playing with altcoins

[slushee]

After correction it will be

[European Central Bank]

i don't know why anyone here's currently trying to second guess things. with every exchange bursting with new users, the only thing you can be sure of is that the usual traders are not in the driving seat for now.

[simmo77]

i don't know why anyone here's currently trying to second guess things. with every exchange bursting with new users, the only thing you can be sure of is that the usual traders are not in the driving seat for now.

It's a speculation thread  

Edit: Plus, you think adding more sheep will change the behaviour of the flock? That's hilarious.

[becoin]

Who sold at the bottom?

You stopped posting that for a little while there. Feeling confident again?

I always feel confident.

On Thursday I've told you that we have 3 days to shake out weak hands before new portion of fiat hits exchanges on Monday. Why do you think this is a loss of confidence?

[valta4065]

i don't know why anyone here's currently trying to second guess things. with every exchange bursting with new users, the only thing you can be sure of is that the usual traders are not in the driving seat for now.

What we can guess with a great confidence though:
Price will swing and play ping pong between 2000 and 3000 for a good amount of time.

BTC is incredibly versatile in price. There is in fact no reason for it to stabilize anywhere. I don't understand why people panick or FOMO. There is really an incredibly tiny chance that the price skyrockets to 10k$ and never comes back to 2500. Of course it will probably happen a day or another, but the chance that it happens at the moment you buy is low as fuck.

Just consider this as a perpetual movement between two big hands ^^
Price will continue to swing simply because nothing will prevent it from doing so.

[simmo77]

Who sold at the bottom?

You stopped posting that for a little while there. Feeling confident again?

I always feel confident.

On Thursday I've told you that we have 3 days to shake out weak hands before new portion of fiat hits exchanges on Monday. Why do you think this is a loss of confidence?

I must have missed that one, apols. I don't think short cheerleading statements offer much to a discussion forum is all, nor rocket/train pics etc etc. So I'm glad you at least expanded on your normal contribution here.

So, are you an Option 1, or you think it will taper off to more sustainable growth, or something else?

[Colonel Panic]

i don't know why anyone here's currently trying to second guess things. with every exchange bursting with new users, the only thing you can be sure of is that the usual traders are not in the driving seat for now.

It's a speculation thread  

Edit: Plus, you think adding more sheep will change the behaviour of the flock? That's hilarious.

Some of those 'sheep' might only be wearing the clothing.

If the institutions are sniffing (hell, even CNBC recently mentioned bitcoin as a non-correlated asset) but can't get in because regulations, that doesn't stop their best getting in on a 'personal' level to front run their employers and clients. And some of these folk could scythe through the current whales without breaking a sweat, on both resource and skill levels.

[Wekkel]

As long as there is more (traditional) currency flowing into cryptocurrency than the other way around, BTC price will continue to climb in the long run. I think 'Blockchain' is quite overhyped looking at what the actual applications could be but we are only at the beginning of figuring this out and a huge investment wave (and trial and error, pets.com style). We already had the VC investment rounds. If or better, when investment by the public in decentralised trust commences in earnest, hold on to your hats.

[Paashaas]

That healthy $700 dump was strong but short lasted, bull run continues next week.

[ARTISTCOLONY]

https://68.media.tumblr.com/dc2acffbea837dc5277bb1b469aafbb7/tumblr_ngr5vefLfU1tgg4b1o1_500.gif


 


wake up and rizeee BTCBTCBTCBTCBTC!!

[Torque]

If it does rally again in the same fashion as you are describing, it will also be headed for a large, deep correction (exactly what happened after 1200). What would be "better" would be some sideways for a while.

We both know that won't happen though.

It will be either:

1 - FOMO re-engages, it goes parabolic, then it dumps and we see another protracted bear market. Some people make a mint, more castles are bought, most lose a shit-ton of money and it results in more damage to trust in BTC and crypto as a whole.

2 - This is "Return to Normal", rally loses steam, more dumps but less risk of a long term bear market and much less damage overall.

We'll know in the next 12h I think.

I'm betting on option 2

Anyone else care to place their bets?

#2 would be the healthiest outcome. I'm hoping for it actually.

I'm also starting to wonder if running up the market is even doable for any protracted length of time. If exchanges are actually running out of coins, then the only way for whales to produce more is to short/dump (force liquidation). Provided that the exchanges have enough coins to short.

If large amounts of fiat want to enter this market, and miners are running out of coins to sell them OTC, they'll have to continually do these "mini-pumps" on exchanges for quite a while, like 6-12-18 months or longer.

[luckygenough56]

btc return to being mean

[blade87]

It's near the mean of a very strong rise that started one month ago. The mean of a rise started in 2015 is around $1350 now. I don't think Bitcoin will drop that low, as it would require a drop almost immediately. The longer this movement plays out, the higher that mean becomes. But whatever happens, I'd rather see a bottom be reached sooner rather than later.

Imo, the biggest problem right now is ETH. It was $8 at the beginning of the year. It's so severely inflated, that if it keeps crashing, it's going to keep taking everything else with it. That's what happens when you let a competitor gain too much market share. It's stupid that I find in order for BTC to hold its price, or continue rising, that requires ETH to hold a 13x inflated price (since the beginning of March).

[Coinnosaurus]

lol someone is mad because the price is dropping ??

what a fcking shame

[ARTISTCOLONY]

btc return to being mean

poloniex east coasters trying to run btc short vs. bitpay & yobit of all people touting the great rise to $3000   *stay tuned<<<