Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Miz4r]

Down to $152, we're slowly sliding down and it seems like we might retest $145 today. If it holds we can expect a new rally upwards.

[seleme]

some dumps are needed for that, it's still about same number of coins needed for 145 and 165

[Miz4r]

Coins needed for 145 went down from 11k-ish to 9.3k now, the support doesn't look that strong but selling pressure doesn't look strong yet either. That could change pretty fast though.

[Rampion]

some dumps are needed for that, it's still about same number of coins needed for 145 and 165

I will say it again: those numbers on the bid and ask size means nothing. Bids and ask walls vanish as soon as the price moves, the book order changes dynamically and means NOTHING. Just check the book order just before the crash, you will see that there was a HUGE buying pressure, but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.

Making a long story short: if you believe in "how many coins are need for X price" you are doing a BIG mistake and you don't understand how trading works.

[RationalSpeculator]

... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.

How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?

If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?

I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?

I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?

[Piper67]

... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.

How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?

If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?

I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?

I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?

You are assuming the seller just wants the best bang for his buck. What if he/she just wants to bring the price down, or shake the market, or inspire panic, or...

[Rampion]

... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.

How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?

If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?

I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?

I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?

Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/. I was trading when that happened, in fact I was very happy because of the unbelievable buying opportunity until Gox fucked up and halted trading to induce "market cooldown". You can check the forums and you will see I was the first one to post about this "market cooldown"

I had to wake up at 4AM to be ready when Gox reopened, just to see how my big buy order at 35€ was not fulfilled for just a couple of euros (bottom in € was 37€). That really pissed me off, I think I should trade in USD, as it's much easier to spot support and resistance points.

[RationalSpeculator]

Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/.

I'm sorry but I can't find this on bitcoincharts or clarkmoody. Could you give me more details how to find this transaction? A link would be greatly appreciated.

[oakpacific]

... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.

How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?

If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?

I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?

I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?

Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/. I was trading when that happened, in fact I was very happy because of the unbelievable buying opportunity until Gox fucked up and halted trading to induce "market cooldown". You can check the forums and you will see I was the first one to post about this "market cooldown"

I had to wake up at 4AM to be ready when Gox reopened, just to see how my big buy order at 35€ was not fulfilled for just a couple of euros (bottom in € was 37€). That really pissed me off, I think I should trade in USD, as it's much easier to spot support and resistance points.

Doubtful, if you have followed this market for long, you will know that at certain price points the buying/selling volume will spike up, probably bots triggered by price movement, the same thing may happened during the crash.

[Rampion]

Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/.

I'm sorry but I can't find this on bitcoincharts or clarkmoody. Could you give me more details how to find this transaction? A link would be greatly appreciated.

Sorry, I see the trades in real time, I don't know where to find an historic that goes till April, 10th (but I'm sure it exists - somebody knows where to find it?)

I can guarantee you that I was actively trading and watching the trades at that moment, and the first of the many dumps we had during the crash was a very big 69KBTC sale (I'm sure other fellow readers will confirm this point)

[RationalSpeculator]

Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/.

I'm sorry but I can't find this on bitcoincharts or clarkmoody. Could you give me more details how to find this transaction? A link would be greatly appreciated.

Sorry, I see the trades in real time, I don't know where to find an historic that goes till April, 10th (but I'm sure it exists - somebody knows where to find it?)

I can guarantee you that I was actively trading and watching the trades at that moment, and the first of the many dumps we had during the crash was a very big 69KBTC sale (I'm sure other fellow readers will confirm this point)

Thanks, I believe you. Wauw, that does explain the crash.

Is it possible that this kind of selling does give the best price?

For example, did he get that order filled?

If yes, he probably got the highest price anyone got considering the amount of coins he had to sell?

[NamelessOne]

The crash/correction was trigger by some gradual downward selling that caused severe lag that in turn caused panic/lag selling. By the time we'd fallen from 266 to 220, there was like 40 minutes of lag and two or so hours had passed since the downward pressure began. While watching live I saw thousands upon thousands of sell orders go through. It wasn't a single 69k order from above 200 that sent us down, it would have taken us down instantly, not gradually over three hours as you can see in the chart below.

There is no 69k single order of coins sold on this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

[Rampion]

As a funny note, there was a few users who spread the rumor that the one dumping the 69K that triggered the crash was Silk Road (for example, see: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=85687.msg1804571#msg1804571)

The dump was real, the one who did it's unknown (at least I have seen no proof other than rumors and different posts).

And of course a dump triggered the crash - it always start like that. The BTC is so ridiculously illiquid that a tiny dump of +10.000BTC would trigger a panic selling and a huge crash. Heck, a 200KBTC dump would take us to low single digits! That gives you the idea of how easy would be for a BTC enemy with not-so-deep pockets to destabilize BTC.

And now imagine that an old miner decides to dump +500KBTC coins because it's time to be rich, and he doesn't give a fuck

[Rampion]

The crash/correction was trigger by some gradual downward selling that caused severe lag that in turn caused panic/lag selling. By the time we'd fallen from 266 to 220, there was like 40 minutes of lag and two or so hours had passed since the downward pressure began. While watching live I saw thousands upon thousands of sell orders go through. It wasn't a single 69k order from above 200 that sent us down, it would have taken us down instantly, not gradually over three hours as you can see in the chart below.

There is no 69k single order of coins sold on this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I saw that dump, and I can guarantee I was not the only one

[NamelessOne]

On what day? Because that is the chart for the April 10/11 crash.

[gizmoh]

The crash/correction was trigger by some gradual downward selling that caused severe lag that in turn caused panic/lag selling. By the time we'd fallen from 266 to 220, there was like 40 minutes of lag and two or so hours had passed since the downward pressure began. While watching live I saw thousands upon thousands of sell orders go through. It wasn't a single 69k order from above 200 that sent us down, it would have taken us down instantly, not gradually over three hours as you can see in the chart below.

There is no 69k single order of coins sold on this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I saw that dump, and I can guarantee I was not the only one

Many had my eyes on the chart at that particular time and i can also guarantee you there was no single dump. Furthermore its not even possible to confirm that its only from one person/account from charts! Simply, the lag caused all sell orders to get executed "in bundle"

[seleme]

some dumps are needed for that, it's still about same number of coins needed for 145 and 165

I will say it again: those numbers on the bid and ask size means nothing. Bids and ask walls vanish as soon as the price moves, the book order changes dynamically and means NOTHING. Just check the book order just before the crash, you will see that there was a HUGE buying pressure, but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.

Making a long story short: if you believe in "how many coins are need for X price" you are doing a BIG mistake and you don't understand how trading works.

Wasn't that exactly what I said?

Big price moves don't happen unless big dumps or buys do.

[Rampion]

Very low volume ATM

It seems all the buyers are on hold - same thing for the sellers.

But the last few days rallies where on small volumes, crash on high volumes. It's usual like that in BTC, but this seems more pronounced. Last day of rally on big volumes was April, 19th.

[ManBearPig]

Not much happening. Care for a recap of recent events in non-vertigo-inducing log scale?

[Kazu]

This feels a lot like that day after the weird mini-crash from $147 from the first time up. Huge rally is going on, we break key levels and it starts going insane with huge rally in one day (from $120 to $147 or from $140 to $165) and then people realize "hey this is a bit insane" and sell off down to about where it was the previous day then the price recovers to about half way between the two extremes. Then everybody takes a 1-2 day break and the rally begins again at the very end of the week.