Even though you and I argue about some of the specifics, we likely are following a pretty similar practice
Probably - we've tangentially discussed our approaches before. I recall cautioning you a year or so ago not to overplay the 'making money off volatility' game. I used the example of me being wholly unprepared for the last bit of the 2013 rocket, and being left with a fistful of stinky fiat, no trading stash left, and no way to buy back in other than at a loss. Fortunately, I still had the bulk of my investment outside the game.
Since then I kept out of such activity - until recently. I'm 95% sure Bitcoin will continue at least to do another 10x if not 100x. But the price now is such that, should I exchange some BTC for fiat, I'm OK with it. As long as I retain the bulk for future appreciation. So I've restarted what I naively call 'laddered day trading' (I'm guessing there's an accepted term for it, but I have no clue what it may be).
Actually, yes, I recall you suggesting that I need to be careful about selling too much, and I do really like to engage other members about this kind of topic.
It is true that each of us should attempt to tailor our trading strategy to our own views, finances and circumstances - yet at the same time, we likely will also have to tweak our strategy, as we go along and even possibly have some regrets, like you said that we sold too much.
My current strategy is NOT really based on the desire to buy back at a lower price, but it is to attempt to protect myself from some of the downward volatility and to be able to buy back as the price drops by either using coins that I sold at a higher price or even engaging in some bulk buying, and it does not matter so much to me whether I am buying back at a higher price with some of the funds so long as there has been a decent sized correction. Furthermore, I am currently selling about 1% of my stash for every 10% rise in price and then buying back which causes me to sell a little bit less than 1% for every 10% rise - and yeah, sometimes I feel that I have to tweak the matter because I do end up with a lot of cash - they call that being cash rich. But with that cash rich, I can either use some of that money to buy back, or just have some of that money for the purpose of consumer purchasing and just withdrawing it from bitcoin all together.. and to live my life with some pleasures.
Regarding the point of buying back at a profit or really I don't care so much about that so long as my overall stash is profitable because it all seems to kind of work itself out.
Let's say for example that I sold in increments from $500 to $1350, and then the price dips to $890, and I buy back some of those coins, but I still have some dollars in reserve, and then I sell some more in increments from $890 to $2760, and then I buy back some of those in the dip down to $1850, but in the dip back down to $1850, I think that there is going to be one more dip, and then I fail to buy back and I still have fiat, just in case, but if the price goes to $1500, I could have used a large amount of that fiat, maybe even some of the fiat that I acquired from coins that I sold at $500-ish.
For some reason, even though sometimes we do not get decent corrections, I still have been able to buy back sufficiently in order to mostly work my fiat reserves, and yes, there will frequently be regrets or feelings that the fiat is not working hard enough... but anyhow, I still have found myself with mostly keeping more than 90% in BTC, even with really large price rises in BTC.. and largely my BTC stash continues to get larger, even with appreciating prices and my average cost per BTC continues to go down - even though I may not be exactly precise in my strategy in terms of making sure that I am not buying back at more than the price that I had sold at. On average, in practice it still seems to work out, and the more money that I get in profits, the more that I feel comfortable creating large spreads in order that my investment can become a bit more passive (even though not completely passive, of course).
Regarding your prognosis of another 10x or 100x - those kinds of predictions do seem to be a ways into the future, and likely to have a few ups and downs before we proceed in that direction.. and really from the slums of 2015 in the low to mid $200s, we have largely done a 10x in the past 20 months-ish... .. so yeah, we could have a couple more 10xs.. but who the fuck knows how long it is going to take to play out and the extent to which we may have some more downs before we get ups.. but my tentative idea is that we have a move to $4k to $6k in the next 6 weeks (a 30%-ish chance of such) and then maybe a move to $12k to $20k in the late part of 2017 or the early part of 2018.. maybe a 20% or so chance of that second move - and yeah, to me, those seem pretty decent odds, even though objectively they are less likely than not...
I have a hard time putting 90% or 95% odds on anything that is so far into the future and has so many possible variables and human influence factors...
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