Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

I could use some of dat parabolic movement in BTC

Bro, I've been in BTC longer than that chart... if it was truly parabolic my $50K investment in bitcoin wouldve made me a millionaire, not a lame thousand-air

This is slow steady growth, which I'm not complain about at all, I love it actually. But people are claiming that we are due for a huge crash... I mean what?? We haven't even had much fun yet! At least give me dat parabolic move BEFORE we crash and do a 50% retrace

Give me at least $5K/btc

Trust me, it will get there. I wager we will see a $5K floor, yes floor, by the end of 2020. Supported by miners and by true long holders. Bitcoin will be seen as the only sensible crypto and the true value play. The price of bitcoin will of course continue to increase into the future, but likely more slowly over time. I guess we shall see. 99.99% people have yet to even buy some.

All the other shitcoins are supported by nothing but the pumpers and FOMO hype. When all that changes, and it will someday, the ICO market will get fully labeled as 'SCAM MARKET' and the sensible people will never return there again. They can only pull off the mega scam once.

I agree, that's why I'm holding

Even though you assert that you are not complaining, you sure come off as such.

Gosh, maybe your average price per bitcoin is in the $300 area?

That would be $50k x $300 - about 166BTC, which would be about $466k.

It just seems a bit outrageous complaining that such price appreciation is not enough for you, while at the same time you are saying that you are content, but you just want more, and you are comparing your situation to alts and what you could have done, blah blah blah...

It seems to me that the relative security of bitcoin comes at a cost -that it is less volatile than almost all of the other alts, which yeah means less upside volatility...

But, what the fuck, bitcoin still remains amazingly volatile, and there are very few assets that can compare with it, especially if you zoom out over 8 years - Holy fucking shit!!!!!

O.k. sure it is possible that one or more of the alts may displace bitcoin, but I am not prepared to take that bet, even though there continues to be all kinds of hype in the alt coin community, especially about Ethereum.  On the other hand, it is surely quite possible that the alts, including ETH could continue to be pumped into the stratesphere in the coming 6 months or longer, and if you believe in such a play, then maybe you should put some money into that.  Again, I am not prepared personally to make such a bet, and I am o.k. with living with the consequences that bitcoin may perform a lot less than a number of alts.

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[BlindMayorBitcorn]

I too have felt the sting of unrequited alt profits. Alas, they were not to be. But it still feels bad, man.

[JimboToronto]

Parabolic != Exponential

Indeed. And logarithmic is the inverse of exponential, not parabolic. My bad for comparing parabolic growth to a log chart.

The chart I posted of Bitstamp's prices since 2015 is indeed exponential, just like compound interest.

[Dabs]

Trust me, it will get there. I wager we will see a $5K floor, yes floor, by the end of 2020. Supported by miners and by true long holders. Bitcoin will be seen as the only sensible crypto and the true value play. The price of bitcoin will of course continue to increase into the future, but likely more slowly over time. I guess we shall see. 99.99% people have yet to even buy some.

All the other shitcoins are supported by nothing but the pumpers and FOMO hype. When all that changes, and it will someday, the ICO market will get fully labeled as 'SCAM MARKET' and the sensible people will never return there again. They can only pull off the mega scam once.

The supply of bitcoin by the end of 2020 will be at least 18 million BTC. That's 87.5%. The year after that is another block reward halving to 6.25 BTC per block. The year or two after that, another train or rocketship or moon or mars or whatever.

2030 is a much nicer year to forecast, it's in the middle of a block reward cycle and we will have 99% of all bitcoins, so ... bitcoins won't increase at that point (yeah, 1% over the next hundred years) but users will ....

ICO market is going to stick around at least another 2 or 3 years. Fortunes will be made (both by the founders as well as normal participants.) If not ICOs, then the "normal" altcoins that come about just by mining them, airdrops, country coins, business coins, and private coins.

The thing you forget about "sensible people" is that there are "non-sensible" people born every minute, or come into this space. I argue that my estimate of 2 to 3 years is conservative and as long as there are people, as long as they think "so, there's a chance" ... ICOs or some variation of them will continue to exist.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

This is what the initial run-up for Bitcoin must have felt like. http://hypecoaster.com

[Torque]

The thing you forget about "sensible people" is that there are "non-sensible" people born every minute, or come into this space. I argue that my estimate of 2 to 3 years is conservative and as long as there are people, as long as they think "so, there's a chance" ... ICOs or some variation of them will continue to exist.

That may be true that some variation of the ICO market will stick around indefinitely. But there are only so many times that you can continue to say things like "ETH is Bitcoin 2.0!"
"Oh no wait, not ETH, now it will be XXcoin that is the next Bitcoin 2.0!"
"Oh no wait, it's not XXcoin, it's going to be XYcoin that is the next Bitcoin 2.0!"
"Oh no wait, not that XYcoin stuff, it's YYcoin that is the next Bitcoin 2.0!"
... and on and on...

After a while, people will start to see the ever revolving door of the perpetual scam that is "This is the next Bitcoin! Trust me!"

[Richy_T]

Parabolic != Exponential

And exponential always beats polynomial (parabolic) in the long run. (Though it can't be pure parabolic growth forever)

[Eric Cartman]

Bro, I've been in BTC longer than that chart... if it was truly parabolic my $50K investment in bitcoin wouldve made me a millionaire, not a lame thousand-air

This is slow steady growth, which I'm not complain about at all, I love it actually. But people are claiming that we are due for a huge crash... I mean what?? We haven't even had much fun yet! At least give me dat parabolic move BEFORE we crash and do a 50% retrace

I've only been into Bitcoin since it had just finally broken out of single digits for good but if you look back to when it was worth less than a penny per coin you'll see that its growth has indeed been and still is parabolic. To really see it, look at the log chart for the last 7 years.

Sure, there was that anomaly back in 2014-5  when it dipped below the ascending line. Look at the log chart before or after that anomaly and you'll see they're both rising at a parabolic rate. That'd why I chose a chart starting in summer of 2015.

If you'd bought in 2012 or early 2013, your $50k investment would have already made you a multi-millionaire.

Parabolic != Exponential

Exponential can be approximated as a parabolic series for low intervals with high precision. Remember Bitcoin is new and the grow can't be exponential or parabolic forever

[Last of the V8s]

wait what? all coins, except for the brave and the stupid, should come off the exchanges on 31st July?
that's bullish, right?

[Eric Cartman]

wait what? all coins, except for the brave and the stupid, should come off the exchanges on 31st July?
that's bullish, right?

not if they decide to sell the coins and wait things to settle instad

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

wait what? all coins, except for the brave and the stupid, should come off the exchanges on 31st July?
that's bullish, right?

not if they decide to sell the coins and wait things to settle instad

They never tell us anything.

[Last of the V8s]

wait what? all coins, except for the brave and the stupid, should come off the exchanges on 31st July?
that's bullish, right?

not if they decide to sell the coins and wait things to settle instad

They never tell us anything.

It's just rude

[Torque]

wait what? all coins, except for the brave and the stupid, should come off the exchanges on 31st July?
that's bullish, right?

not if they decide to sell the coins and wait things to settle instad

They never tell us anything.

It's just rude

To what are you guys referring?

[MichaelX]

After a while, people will start to see the ever revolving door of the perpetual scam that is "This is the next Bitcoin! Trust me!"

You severely underestimate the ... sensibilities of people. Even if only 1% of the world will fall prey, that's still 75 million of them out there.

If a million of them get smart every year, we are looking at 20 block reward halvings before the population of unsensible people are depleted.

[Last of the V8s]

wait what? all coins, except for the brave and the stupid, should come off the exchanges on 31st July?
that's bullish, right?

not if they decide to sell the coins and wait things to settle instad

They never tell us anything.

It's just rude

To what are you guys referring?

was trying to drag up reasons to be bullish - the threat of a fork on Aug 1. Eric pointed out a major flaw in my thesis. The Mayor kind of kindly commiserated that you can't predict what people will do and hinted it might be a conspiracy - all in a few short words. I tried to bluff it out. I'll get my coat

[deepcolderwallet]

My shtf plan is mobility. First sign of bad things coming and I find my next country to live in. And they all take bitcoin.

What do you call a sign of bad things?

[deepcolderwallet]

The likelihood of a worldwide apocalyptic event is staggeringly small. What could possibly happen to make every nation in the world including small islands in the Pacific to lose power, food, water, energy, etc?

A shtf event is more likely to hit one country ala Venezuela right now where Bitcoin is very useful. Or even a world war would leave small pockets of untouched nations that would welcome you and your bitcoins (your gold as well).

My shtf plan is mobility. First sign of bad things coming and I find my next country to live in. And they all take bitcoin.

You do know that an ice age has already started right?? That will last for a short period of time 20-30 years, but it still enough to attempt a decimation of the human race and trimming the current population numbers!

sauce?

[Meuh6879]

nope ...

[deepcolderwallet]

Haha, litecoin's hashrate about to take a mega dive. What a shock.

sauce?

[Elwar]

My shtf plan is mobility. First sign of bad things coming and I find my next country to live in. And they all take bitcoin.

What do you call a sign of bad things?

That is likely a per-country call. I live in South Korea so the first confrontation between North Korea/South Korea(US) that is likely to trigger a war will be followed by my logging into cheapair.com and find the first flight out of here.

If I was in the US, things like passing laws that would likely trigger an event or the debt bubble finally pops, or something happens where energy is disrupted. Any war with Russia or any country who can actually hit things with their bombs is an exit event.

Though my line in the sand that made me leave the US was the tax on being alive (Obamacare).