Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[traincarswreck]

Whatever  

For me, if I want to be safe, I go for precious metals. Since the neolithic, it's held its value fairly well. A person 10,000 years ago can get about the same amount of goods and services as they can today. Yes, its value fluctuates in the short term, but in the long term, it will probably be one of the safest investments that I can possibly make. (And a little boring to be quite frank.)
If I want to go for risky, with high volatility and excitement, I go for Bitcoin/cryptocurrency. I've had almost 3 years worth of entertainment and have even seen my small "investment" increase 10 fold. This has been way more enjoyable, affordable and educational for me than my years of trying to perfect my card counting "system." Wish this was around in the 90's and early 2000s.
Enjoy life. It never has to be boring.

Did you look at the price of gold before you made this statement?  Its declining rapidly.  And its value 10k years from now is not relevant to you.  Your post denies observable reality.  gold is not safe, its losing value at a dramatic pace.

[bones261]

Whatever  

For me, if I want to be safe, I go for precious metals. Since the neolithic, it's held its value fairly well. A person 10,000 years ago can get about the same amount of goods and services as they can today. Yes, its value fluctuates in the short term, but in the long term, it will probably be one of the safest investments that I can possibly make. (And a little boring to be quite frank.)
If I want to go for risky, with high volatility and excitement, I go for Bitcoin/cryptocurrency. I've had almost 3 years worth of entertainment and have even seen my small "investment" increase 10 fold. This has been way more enjoyable, affordable and educational for me than my years of trying to perfect my card counting "system." Wish this was around in the 90's and early 2000s.
Enjoy life. It never has to be boring.

Did you look at the price of gold before you made this statement?  Its declining rapidly.  And its value 10k years from now is not relevant to you.  Your post denies observable reality.  gold is not safe, its losing value at a dramatic pace.

OK, let's go for something within my lifetime. In August 1971, gold was $35.00 per ounce. Adjusted for inflation that would be about $211.00 in today's dollars. Now if I compare the price of gold to what it was in May of 1980 or August 2011, then it sucks. Overall, in the long haul, it's most probably going to keep up with inflation. In fact, if you look at a 30 year chart, adjusted for inflation, it's fared quite well. http://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

[traincarswreck]

OK, let's go for something within my lifetime. In August 1971, gold was $35.00 per ounce. Adjusted for inflation that would be about $211.00 in today's dollars. Now if I compare the price of gold to what it was in May of 1980, then it sucks. Overall, in the long haul, it's most probably going to keep up with inflation.

Not necessarily so at all. You've basically said it worked like this in the past and so it will work like this going forward.  But of course we didn't have bitcoin.  But more importantly you probably don't know that the relationship is really about the cost of production which effectively related to its deepness.

As we grow our technology gold won't necessarily be scarce and this will happen in our lifetimes.  This is why szabos article about mining the vast deep were written and relevant (as well as comet mining).

There is nothing to suggest gold will continue to be a superior or safe store of wealth.

[podyx]

Bitstamp going full retard?

[bones261]

OK, let's go for something within my lifetime. In August 1971, gold was $35.00 per ounce. Adjusted for inflation that would be about $211.00 in today's dollars. Now if I compare the price of gold to what it was in May of 1980, then it sucks. Overall, in the long haul, it's most probably going to keep up with inflation.

Not necessarily so at all. You've basically said it worked like this in the past and so it will work like this going forward.  But of course we didn't have bitcoin.  But more importantly you probably don't know that the relationship is really about the cost of production which effectively related to its deepness.

As we grow our technology gold won't necessarily be scarce and this will happen in our lifetimes.  This is why szabos article about mining the vast deep were written and relevant (as well as comet mining).

There is nothing to suggest gold will continue to be a superior or safe store of wealth.

Since when does scarcity make something good money or a store of wealth?  

Furthermore, with PMs I have thousands of years of data to rely upon, whereas with Bitcoin, I only have a small sample of 8 years to rely upon. Which statistical sample do you think is more sound? Sure, it's quite possible that Bitcoin may be the next wave of innovation in money, just like fiat was 500 years ago. It could also be the next AOL or MySpace. At 49, I am certainly not going to invest my whole life savings in this. Especially in this realm where I can lose a substantial amount by just transferring some BTC to the wrong exchange at the wrong time (ie BTC-e, Cryptsy, MT Gox, Bitfinex etc etc etc etc etc)  or someone, somehow managing to breach my security and steal my bitcoins. (a 5.00 wrench should be enough for that.)

[ivomm]

Jihan Wu dumped 3K bitcoin on bitfiniex in 5 mins. Only 1% damage. He will see what a real dump is on his BCC on 1 Aug  

[Searing]

Jihan Wu dumped 3K bitcoin on bitfiniex in 5 mins. Only 1% damage. He will see what a real dump is on his BCC on 1 Aug  

Ouch...that hit me so low the 'family jewels hurt' ... wince!

low blow, low blow

You nailed it. (Damn than analogy also was not apt) (ouch!)

(the truth it always hurts!)

[r0ach]

Jihan Wu dumped 3K bitcoin on bitfiniex in 5 mins. Only 1% damage. He will see what a real dump is on his BCC on 1 Aug  

As if Jihan Wu is the only dumper in town o_O

[traincarswreck]

Jihan Wu dumped 3K bitcoin on bitfiniex in 5 mins. Only 1% damage. He will see what a real dump is on his BCC on 1 Aug  

As if Jihan Wu is the only dumper in town o_O

Much of your points are no sound economic philosophy.  You've made your own definitions and created an argument that supports your own view but is contradicted by observable reality. You actually don't know anything about the subjects you are commenting on. 

ACTUALLY.

[traincarswreck]

Bah, I feel like the word actually isn't getting across...

What I mean to say is IRL, irl conflicts with your beliefs.  You are wrong and observably so.

[traincarswreck]

Jihan Wu dumped 3K bitcoin on bitfiniex in 5 mins. Only 1% damage. He will see what a real dump is on his BCC on 1 Aug  

As if Jihan Wu is the only dumper in town o_O

Do you have any more memes to post that can derail from your attempts to justify your misunderstanding?

[r0ach]

Jihan Wu dumped 3K bitcoin on bitfiniex in 5 mins. Only 1% damage. He will see what a real dump is on his BCC on 1 Aug  

As if Jihan Wu is the only dumper in town o_O

Much of your points are no sound economic philosophy.  You've made your own definitions and created an argument that supports your own view but is contradicted by observable reality. You actually don't know anything about the subjects you are commenting on.  

Hey man, I'm not the one posting on an alt-troll acct from being scared.  If what I said about bitcoin and metals fundamentals wasn't true, someone would actually be able to put up some type of argument against it but nobody can. Instead, I got Sidhujag the guy from India, the world capital of gold, trying to troll the forum saying metals are a barbarous relic LOL.  They sell cooked rats on the side of the road in south east asia, don't give me this barbarous relic shit!

[traincarswreck]

Hey man, I'm not the one posting on an alt-troll acct from being scared.  If what I said about bitcoin and metals fundamentals wasn't true, someone would actually be able to put up some type of argument against it but nobody can. Instead, I got Sidhujag the guy from India, the world capital of gold, trying to troll the forum saying metals are a barbarous relic LOL.  They sell cooked rats on the side of the road in south east asia, don't give me this barbarous relic shit!

ya im sure he's confused.  nonetheless your argument can't be it worked in the past so it will work in the future.  gold was good, but only because it had an EFFECTIVE throttle on its supply.  This can and will change.  It's a myth that it's tangibility was significant. Something with other (changing) significant uses is not as useful as a settlement device than an equivalent that has less other uses.

like its not my fault so many of the people that have been arguing you don't know what they are talking about.

[r0ach]

quote]ya im sure he's confused.  nonetheless your argument can't be it worked in the past so it will work in the future.  
like its not my fault so many of the people that have been arguing you don't know what they are talking about.

As for economics, you are the (anonymint's favorite word) myopic user of the century.  Debt based currencies require infinite growth to not collapse because the interest due is always higher than the principal.  Since demographics have peaked in every nation that matters and energy output has also peaked while EROI is simultaneously collapsing, this means growth is over and all debt based currency is doomed to implode.  The system will be forced to move to a non-debt based currency whether it's issuing debt free paper like the greenback or changing back to metals.  Regardless of what happens, the dollar dies and metals skyrocket in the process.

There is no fucking scenario on this planet in which metals don't skyrocket because they are the Schelling point when debt based currencies blow up.  You can live in some alternate dimension pontificating on some random bullshit Nick Szabo said, but none of that changes this objective reality that will occur.  Stocks are also garbage in this paradigm because they're mostly based around infinite consumer growth as well, but the govt may or may not manipulate that market to whatever number they choose before it all blows up.

[hv_]

quote]ya im sure he's confused.  nonetheless your argument can't be it worked in the past so it will work in the future.  
like its not my fault so many of the people that have been arguing you don't know what they are talking about.

As for economics, you are the (anonymint's favorite word) myopic user of the century.  Debt based currencies require infinite growth to not collapse because the interest due is always higher than the principal.  Since demographics have peaked in every nation that matters and energy output has also peaked while EROI is simultaneously collapsing, this means growth is over and all debt based currency is doomed to implode.  The system will be forced to move to a non-debt based currency whether it's issuing debt free paper like the greenback or changing back to metals.  Regardless of what happens, the dollar dies and metals skyrocket in the process.

There is no fucking scenario on this planet in which metals don't skyrocket because they are the Schelling point when debt based currencies blow up.  You can live in some alternate dimension pontificating on some random bullshit Nick Szabo said, but none of that changes this objective reality that will occur.  Stocks are also garbage in this paradigm because they're mostly based around infinite consumer growth as well, but the govt may or may not manipulate that market to whatever number they choose before it all blows up.

There is no black or white. There is no ideal. Not in real world. Its only in our mind and the only way to try to understand a bit of this. Einstein, Nash tried it. The model is not a reality...

But nice discussion 
Its so human

[r0ach]

quote]ya im sure he's confused.  nonetheless your argument can't be it worked in the past so it will work in the future.  
like its not my fault so many of the people that have been arguing you don't know what they are talking about.

As for economics, you are the (anonymint's favorite word) myopic user of the century.  Debt based currencies require infinite growth to not collapse because the interest due is always higher than the principal.  Since demographics have peaked in every nation that matters and energy output has also peaked while EROI is simultaneously collapsing, this means growth is over and all debt based currency is doomed to implode.  The system will be forced to move to a non-debt based currency whether it's issuing debt free paper like the greenback or changing back to metals.  Regardless of what happens, the dollar dies and metals skyrocket in the process.

There is no fucking scenario on this planet in which metals don't skyrocket because they are the Schelling point when debt based currencies blow up.  You can live in some alternate dimension pontificating on some random bullshit Nick Szabo said, but none of that changes this objective reality that will occur.  Stocks are also garbage in this paradigm because they're mostly based around infinite consumer growth as well, but the govt may or may not manipulate that market to whatever number they choose before it all blows up.

There is no black or white. There is no ideal. Not in real world. Its only in our mind and the only way to try to understand a bit of this. Einstein, Nash tried it. The model is not a reality...

But nice discussion  
Its so human

In the land of the market fundamentals blind, the r0ach with 4000 eyes is king.

[savetherainforest]

In the land of the market fundamentals blind, the r0ach with 4000 eyes is king.

R0ach.. u'r like that old man before being kicked out of his home by his kids. He gets desperate and aggressive at the very end when he comes to the realization what is actually happening to him. 

[JayJuanGee]

This should cheer you all up, some quality Game Theory Analysis of Bitcoin Cash.

https://medium.com/@rextar4444/the-myth-of-bitcoin-cash-understanding-game-theory-f87858bf8791


TLDR: There is no economic viability to bitcoin cash. There is no founded argument for its valuation. The exchanges and companies that support it are insecure and nefarious.

and a coin with 1mb blocks forever has economic viability?

Have you noticed that since around the time of the segwit2x intention signaling that the bigblocker nutjobs discontinued spamming the bitcoin network, and the mempool backlog has reduced to almost nothing?

 Accordingly, transaction fees have reduced to like $.15 or less per transaction, and transaction times are back to normal times of less than an hour (frequently within the next few blocks, which would be less than 30 minutes if 3 confirmations are required).   

Furthermore, after the bigblocker nutjobs indicated that they are going to fork into bitcoin cash despite the pretty much guaranteed locking in and activation of segwit, transactions on the blockchain had increased incredibly - likely due to folks moving their bitcoin's off of exchanges because of the threatened imminency of a hardfork - however, in spite of the considerable increases in on block transaction volume, the mempool has continued to remain without much of any backlog - resulting in ongoing low transaction fees and fast transaction times.

So, yeah, maybe at some point in the near future, bigblocker nutjobs will continue their spam attacks on the bitcoin network, but for now it seems that they are aiming their energies at preparations for their proposed hardfork.

[r0ach]

In the land of the market fundamentals blind, the r0ach with 4000 eyes is king.

R0ach.. u'r like that old man before being kicked out of his home by his kids. He gets desperate and aggressive at the very end when he comes to the realization what is actually happening to him. 

[fluidjax]

There is no fucking scenario on this planet in which metals don't skyrocket because they are the Schelling point when debt based currencies blow up.  You can live in some alternate dimension pontificating on some random bullshit Nick Szabo said, but none of that changes this objective reality that will occur.  Stocks are also garbage in this paradigm because they're mostly based around infinite consumer growth as well, but the govt may or may not manipulate that market to whatever number they choose before it all blows up.

Point is, i've been waiting for fiat to blow since people starting saying this on the internet about 15 years ago. It's coming.... It's coming.... but it hasn't come yet.

If it doesn't come in my life time, frankly I couldn't give a shit, and my kids can deal with it

So, Roach if you are so sure its going to happen, please give me some numbers, how likely a 'currency blow up' is, in 1, 2,  5, 10, 20 years. Put your money where your mouth, and make it quantifiable, or are you content with it's coming, but have no idea when?

--

And Godwin's law is proven....