Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

wall observer thread:  the babes of Bitcoin edition

[Icygreen]

31.5 million in buy orders on stamp. Wow, never saw more than 24-25

[BTCtrader71]

I know you didn't ask for my opinion, but I figured I'd toss in my thoughts anyway ...

I wouldn't draw too many parallels between price action around segwit activation for litecoin vs bitcoin. There's a tiny but nevertheless worrisome chance -- especially worrisome to new investors -- that SegWit activitation in 8 days will trigger some unexpected software bug and cause some sort of technical disaster. So when SegWit activates and the first SW transaction propagates without mishap, that could be a little bullish. So same effect as bip141 lock-in, although maybe not as pronounced. Up until a few weeks ago, investors have been viewing litecoin as a hedge against the possibility of unending deadlock on the scaling debate. SW lockin and activation was less of a concern for litecoin than for bitcoin, relatively speaking (relative to the other forces driving litecoin price).

For context, I'm viewing this under the assumption that the current uptrend is fueled by institutional investors who are just now getting comfortable with bitcoin investing. So I try to interpret events from what I imagine their perspective to be.

Thank you, your serious reply is very welcome.
If I recall correctly ETF's result was exactly what we can describe as a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Don't you think this "uptrend fueled by institutional investors" can be analogous move for an "already-vaccinated" market?

ETF's result? ...

Winklevoss Brothers' back in march. For how long have you been around here?

Forever. Lots of ETF history, was not sure what you were referring to. I usually think of the expression "buy the rumor, sell the news" as referring to a bullish development and communicating a sense of irony bc the price drops instead of rises once the bullish event happens. Winklevoss ETF denial was obviously not a bullish development. But I suppose the general idea is the same for bearish news, just in reverse. Price drops beforehand, then (ironically) rises after the bearish event. And the price dip after the Winklevoss ETF denial was much more brief and more shallow than most ppl expected (unless I misremember), so yeah I suppose it would count.

So could this be the same thing leading up to Aug 21? Yeah, I suppose it could. Although it doesn't seem to me that Aug 21 will be as big an event from a trading perspective as bip141 lock-in. The former is guaranteed (now), the latter was not until shortly before it happened.


 

[Last of the V8s]

wall observer thread:  the babes of Bitcoin edition

well she does have nice poppies in that photo^

anyway sorry yes the price will go up then down then up in the short and medium terms. there will be whales, walls, sharks and sentiment

edit https://www.ft.com/content/ae19e60e-81b0-11e7-94e2-c5b903247afd
Large-scale purchases of bonds in the decade since the financial crisis have left central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank, owning a fifth of their respective governments' total debt

The Fed could give investors a hint about its stance on monetary policy tightening when the minutes of its July meeting are published on Wednesday.

[Globb0]

snip

http://stuffin.space/

What an excellent link.

I worked for the European space  agency quite a bit a few years back and I have seen then some static drawing versions of this type of data. Of course to represent it they make big dots but in reality its tiny bits miles apart.

[marcus_of_augustus]

Hm. I wonder if this can help the issue of providing a stable blockchain for the Martian colonies. I want to be sure I can withdraw Bitcoin at any Mars ATMs.

No. But you could probably get a working blockchain to da moon! 

[suzanne5223]

Is this that ackward moment in which people that were praying for a dip a few hours ago are now too scared to rebuy?

BIP 141 (Segregated Witness) activation is scheduled to take place in: 1175 Blocks (8.15 days)

Hi bitserve,

Do you think the price will go up after activation in just over a week? I mean surely it's priced in as it's a guarantee now. Seems strange it going up at that moment when everyone knows about it.

Also I know btc is it's own beast but didn't litecoin drop after activation and then increase in price later?

Love to know everyone's thoughts here.

The only reference I can use is Litecoin. It kept pumping until just after activation. Then a mild drop that took some days(?)  to recover.

At the moment, Bitcoin is doing exactly the same. So it should keep rising until activation. I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks 5K during last days/hours before activation.

Of course, both are not the same. Litecoin didn't need Segwit as much as Bitcoin does, because it had no capacity problem... but Segwit is much more than that though.

There have been some interesting advances in Segwit wallets and even in Lighting Network. I think it will be those advances what will propel Bitcoin to new heights, but not sure if it will be right after activation or a few months later.

Also, Segwit "capacity increase" will become more noticeable as soon as more people and services start using segwit tx's, something that will come gradually over the next few months.

In conclusion, I don't fucking know.... But I think the scenario is very bullish and that, even if it dips now, it should keep rising later.

Right here I'd like bitserve, rjclarke2000, Elwar, Torque, lightfoot, infofront, JimboToronto and Searing's opinion.

Interesting times are coming. Segwit is about to activate. We already know Litecoin's behavior. But things are different right now. Another fork is about to happen. And this is not like the previous, when the honey badger just ignored the altcash for our cheers. About 8 days from here we may see Bitcoin's price submerge and another alt rise with (maybe) half BTC's value.

In my opinion it would be similar to March's Winklevoss ETF. There happened a rush from $800+ to $1200+ in a few minutes, then... BOOM! Two months to recover to another (very celebrated) ATH.

Not that I care about it, I learned my lesson from afrocoin's irresponsibility. I'm a Matrix hodlr since then.
I'm asking only because I'd like to have some help to predict a window where I could buy some cheap coins.

Thank you for you attention.

I know you didn't ask for my opinion, but I figured I'd toss in my thoughts anyway ...

I wouldn't draw too many parallels between price action around segwit activation for litecoin vs bitcoin. There's a tiny but nevertheless worrisome chance -- especially worrisome to new investors -- that SegWit activitation in 8 days will trigger some unexpected software bug and cause some sort of technical disaster. So when SegWit activates and the first SW transaction propagates without mishap, that could be a little bullish. So same effect as bip141 lock-in, although maybe not as pronounced. Up until a few weeks ago, investors have been viewing litecoin as a hedge against the possibility of unending deadlock on the scaling debate. SW lockin and activation was less of a concern for litecoin than for bitcoin, relatively speaking (relative to the other forces driving litecoin price).

For context, I'm viewing this under the assumption that the current uptrend is fueled by institutional investors who are just now getting comfortable with bitcoin investing. So I try to interpret events from what I imagine their perspective to be.

Yes, the SegWit will trigger some unexpected software bug but the SegWit will be finally activated in 14days not 8days.  The price of bitcoin is sightly pumping up though.

[deepcolderwallet]

Who is that V8??

@ToneVays and Julia something i forget @BraveTheWorld

She's hot!

Steady, she's practically a child still.

She has a youtube channel eg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEJCgf5Wz00
The Declaration of Bitcoin Bloopers

Ooops...
Looks pretty older.

[conspirosphere.tk]

The Fed could give investors a hint about its stance on monetary policy tightening when the minutes of its July meeting are published on Wednesday.

The cryptonerds already won:

ROGOFF: The world's central banks should get ready for negative rates in the next recession http://read.bi/2w5lraD

Next targets 15K and then 40-110K in 2019:
https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/

[deepcolderwallet]

And the price dip after the Winklevoss ETF denial was much more brief and more shallow than most ppl expected (unless I misremember), so yeah I suppose it would count.

I bought the top. $1200 by that time. Was one of my first big moves in Bitcoin. Had to wait 2 months to believe in it again. An eternity for someone who came from ForEx.

So could this be the same thing leading up to Aug 21? Yeah, I suppose it could. Although it doesn't seem to me that Aug 21 will be as big an event from a trading perspective as bip141 lock-in. The former is guaranteed (now), the latter was not until shortly before it happened.

It's not much revealing. BIP141 lock-in means nothing if a big mess occurs around 8 days from here and the real Bitcoin supported by Core gets the lesser share of hashrate.

[Last of the V8s]

wait when is the next difficulty adjustment for bitcoin cash?
few days before ours isn't it?

[deepcolderwallet]

She's hot!

She has a youtube channel eg: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OEJCgf5Wz00

And here (3min33s) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQGQXy0RIIo (Ulterior States.)










I prefer ... Elizabeth Starks.

Ugh..
Meuh... You know that since your failed Monarchy-Thread experiment I'm not really a fan of you. But sincerely... Lady Starks is an ugly beast compared to the hot teenager V8 introduced me (virtually).

[Last of the V8s]

Ugh..
Meuh... You know that since your failed Monarchy-Thread experiment I'm not really a fan of you. But sincerely... Lady Starks is an ugly beast compared to the hot teenager V8 introduced me (virtually).

ah leave him alone everything worked out in the end.

also on closer inspection i think i confused her with some other kid. she seems quite er old enough. my mistake. carry on...

[deepcolderwallet]

Ugh..
Meuh... You know that since your failed Monarchy-Thread experiment I'm not really a fan of you. But sincerely... Lady Starks is an ugly beast compared to the hot teenager V8 introduced me (virtually).

ah leave him alone everything worked out in the end.

also on closer inspection i think i confused her with some other kid. carry on...

You mean...
It's not a crime to say she's hot???

Best news today!!!

Even better than BTC price over $4k+!!!

[empowering]

Is this that ackward moment in which people that were praying for a dip a few hours ago are now too scared to rebuy?

BIP 141 (Segregated Witness) activation is scheduled to take place in: 1175 Blocks (8.15 days)

Hi bitserve,

Do you think the price will go up after activation in just over a week? I mean surely it's priced in as it's a guarantee now. Seems strange it going up at that moment when everyone knows about it.

Also I know btc is it's own beast but didn't litecoin drop after activation and then increase in price later?

Love to know everyone's thoughts here.

The only reference I can use is Litecoin. It kept pumping until just after activation. Then a mild drop that took some days(?)  to recover.

At the moment, Bitcoin is doing exactly the same. So it should keep rising until activation. I wouldn't be surprised if it breaks 5K during last days/hours before activation.

Of course, both are not the same. Litecoin didn't need Segwit as much as Bitcoin does, because it had no capacity problem... but Segwit is much more than that though.

There have been some interesting advances in Segwit wallets and even in Lighting Network. I think it will be those advances what will propel Bitcoin to new heights, but not sure if it will be right after activation or a few months later.

Also, Segwit "capacity increase" will become more noticeable as soon as more people and services start using segwit tx's, something that will come gradually over the next few months.

In conclusion, I don't fucking know.... But I think the scenario is very bullish and that, even if it dips now, it should keep rising later.

Right here I'd like bitserve, rjclarke2000, Elwar, Torque, lightfoot, infofront, JimboToronto and Searing's opinion.

Interesting times are coming. Segwit is about to activate. We already know Litecoin's behavior. But things are different right now. Another fork is about to happen. And this is not like the previous, when the honey badger just ignored the altcash for our cheers. About 8 days from here we may see Bitcoin's price submerge and another alt rise with (maybe) half BTC's value.

In my opinion it would be similar to March's Winklevoss ETF. There happened a rush from $800+ to $1200+ in a few minutes, then... BOOM! Two months to recover to another (very celebrated) ATH.

Not that I care about it, I learned my lesson from afrocoin's irresponsibility. I'm a Matrix hodlr since then.
I'm asking only because I'd like to have some help to predict a window where I could buy some cheap coins.

Thank you for you attention.

I know you didn't ask for my opinion, but I figured I'd toss in my thoughts anyway ...

I wouldn't draw too many parallels between price action around segwit activation for litecoin vs bitcoin. There's a tiny but nevertheless worrisome chance -- especially worrisome to new investors -- that SegWit activitation in 8 days will trigger some unexpected software bug and cause some sort of technical disaster. So when SegWit activates and the first SW transaction propagates without mishap, that could be a little bullish. So same effect as bip141 lock-in, although maybe not as pronounced. Up until a few weeks ago, investors have been viewing litecoin as a hedge against the possibility of unending deadlock on the scaling debate. SW lockin and activation was less of a concern for litecoin than for bitcoin, relatively speaking (relative to the other forces driving litecoin price).

For context, I'm viewing this under the assumption that the current uptrend is fueled by institutional investors who are just now getting comfortable with bitcoin investing. So I try to interpret events from what I imagine their perspective to be.

Yes, the SegWit will trigger some unexpected software bug but the SegWit will be finally activated in 14days not 8days.  The price of bitcoin is sightly pumping up though.

Is there something that LTC /Charlie Lee has missed ?

[BTCtrader71]

And the price dip after the Winklevoss ETF denial was much more brief and more shallow than most ppl expected (unless I misremember), so yeah I suppose it would count.

I bought the top. $1200 by that time. Was one of my first big moves in Bitcoin. Had to wait 2 months to believe in it again. An eternity for someone who came from ForEx.

So could this be the same thing leading up to Aug 21? Yeah, I suppose it could. Although it doesn't seem to me that Aug 21 will be as big an event from a trading perspective as bip141 lock-in. The former is guaranteed (now), the latter was not until shortly before it happened.

It's not much revealing. BIP141 lock-in means nothing if a big mess occurs around 8 days from here and the real Bitcoin supported by Core gets the lesser share of hashrate.

What big mess are you talking about? SW has been thoroughly tested, unlikely to cause problems.

I suppose you're referring to the fact that bitcoin core 0.15.0 will be disconnecting nodes which run segwit2x but I can't find when that's supposed to happen ...

[Last of the V8s]

[jojo69]

did somebody order up a cup and handle?

[Meuh6879]

But sincerely... Lady Starks is an ugly beast compared to the hot teenager V8 introduced me (virtually).

Are you sure ? http://www.flickriver.com/photos/joi/tags/elizabethstark/ (last chance ... ).
















Back to the roof ...

[Last of the V8s]

I suppose you're referring to the fact that bitcoin core 0.15.0 will be disconnecting nodes which run segwit2x but I can't find when that's supposed to happen ...

2x is supposed to be 3 months after segwit activation ... if it goes ahead. idk when 0.15 comes out - presumably before then

nearer term, there may be a bit of fud when bitcoin cash revises it's difficulty dramatically downward in a few days (needs fact-checking!), a couple of days before bitcoin's next adjustment.