Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ronaldlee0917]

Im going short here fully leveraged. This reminds me of the recent 140 high with no volume. Looking for 105ish to make me a nice 25% gain.

Good luck with that, you really need it.

[fitty]

still finding it difficult understanding why so many here are expecting a big dip, wasn't around the last bubble or any other investment bubble for that matter, but there's a lot of fiat sitting in exchanges atm wanting to get back in.

Correction, hoping for a big dip. Here's how it works.

If you have all BTC, you're a bull. Rocket fuel, to the moon, China is a super power. Even bears stfu when they have BTC.

If you're currently sitting with no BTC, it's bubble, crash, Gox sux, charts with lines, chick little in da house.

Most people don't even believe what they say, they are just hoping for the market to go up/down to suit their needs. Don't bother asking them to explain, they'll just shit more FUD in your lap. Everyone else who isn't bullshitting the forum, is just speculating. Because no one really has a clue. If the guys making the charts could actually predict the market movements, they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts trying to convince people. People make charts to convince themselves, and if people agree that's all the better.

[zemario]

still finding it difficult understanding why so many here are expecting a big dip, wasn't around the last bubble or any other investment bubble for that matter, but there's a lot of fiat sitting in exchanges atm wanting to get back in.

People feel like they are badasses by adopting an atitude like "I want the market to go down, I want blood, I want to win big time while everybody is in an hellfire".
Obviously, it is as difficult to nail the ideal buying spot as it is to hit the bubble peak.
My guess is that there is a lot of people that got burned with the last bubble and now set up their bids and ask orders at very low and high values respectively. If only it would be a simple as that.

[UltimateReaper]

still finding it difficult understanding why so many here are expecting a big dip, wasn't around the last bubble or any other investment bubble for that matter, but there's a lot of fiat sitting in exchanges atm wanting to get back in.

Correction, hoping for a big dip. Here's how it works.

If you have all BTC, you're a bull. Rocket fuel, to the moon, China is a super power. Even bears stfu when they have BTC.

If you're currently sitting with no BTC, it's bubble, crash, Gox sux, charts with lines, chick little in da house.

Most people don't even believe what they say, they are just hoping for the market to go up/down to suit their needs. Don't bother asking them to explain, they'll just shit more FUD in your lap. Everyone else who isn't bullshitting the forum, is just speculating. Because no one really has a clue. If the guys making the charts could actually predict the market movements, they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts trying to convince people. People make charts to convince themselves, and if people agree that's all the better.

And a few of us actually do believe what we bet on, hence the betting. Nothing else to do but wait.

[Frozenlock]

If the guys making the charts could actually predict the market movements, they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts trying to convince people.

\troll
Yeah, that's not like any of us bought BTCs years ago because we predicted it would go up.  


Anyhow, a little introduction to TA for the interested:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIdzeC77eOo&list=UUL9No2CVecC_8WazyduwHaw

[fitty]

Im going short here fully leveraged. This reminds me of the recent 140 high with no volume. Looking for 105ish to make me a nice 25% gain.

This reminds me of the time my gf told me she'd love me forever. Next thing I know she's banging a guy with more gold in his mouth then teeth. Now I'm looking for someone 25 who weighs about 105. If we were two lines on a chart we just crossed bro, and it's sort of freaking me out.

[glendall]

105 is a pretty good entry point. I'd be happy to get into the GF market at 110, or even 112 pounds or so.

[SlipperySlope]

My guess is that there is a lot of people that got burned with the last bubble and now set up their bids and ask orders at very low and high values respectively. If only it would be a simple as that.

But maybe it is just as simple as that if you want just one or two very profitable trades from this bubble.

[ChartBuddy]

[ManBearPig]

If the guys making the charts could actually predict the market movements, they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts trying to convince people. People make charts to convince themselves, and if people agree that's all the better.

Ah diddums. Did we lose some money?

In what parallel universe do you live where rich people don't want to get richer?

[just1nmc]

It's interesting that news isn't affecting the price much anymore. I mean just today, http://www.gyft.com is pretty huge news. I can go to almost every retail store I normally shop at in the U.S, and pay with bitcoins through them.

Fundamentals are improving as fast as ever, regardless of what the price is doing. Now we just need some of these new exchanges to be successful.

[ManBearPig]

It's interesting that news isn't affecting the price much anymore. I mean just today, http://www.gyft.com is pretty huge news. I can go to almost every retail store I normally shop at in the U.S, and pay with bitcoins through them.

Fundamentals are improving as fast as ever, regardless of what the price is doing. Now we just need some of these new exchanges to be successful.

Not affecting it immediately and clearly perhaps but you can be sure it does affect it.

As dull as it is, we need a period of nothing, calm, stability, no panics.

If we manage that for a week or so we can skip the whole slow demise we saw in 2011.

[N12]

It's interesting that news isn't affecting the price much anymore. I mean just today, http://www.gyft.com is pretty huge news. I can go to almost every retail store I normally shop at in the U.S, and pay with bitcoins through them.

Fundamentals are improving as fast as ever, regardless of what the price is doing. Now we just need some of these new exchanges to be successful.

Not affecting it immediately and clearly perhaps but you can be sure it does affect it.

As dull as it is, we need a period of nothing, calm, stability, no panics.

If we manage that for a week or so we can skip the whole slow demise we saw in 2011.

Price hovered around $14 for a month in July 2011. It didn't help.

[just1nmc]

It's interesting that news isn't affecting the price much anymore. I mean just today, http://www.gyft.com is pretty huge news. I can go to almost every retail store I normally shop at in the U.S, and pay with bitcoins through them.

Fundamentals are improving as fast as ever, regardless of what the price is doing. Now we just need some of these new exchanges to be successful.

Not affecting it immediately and clearly perhaps but you can be sure it does affect it.

As dull as it is, we need a period of nothing, calm, stability, no panics.

If we manage that for a week or so we can skip the whole slow demise we saw in 2011.

Price hovered around $14 for a month in July 2011. It didn't help.

How many new merchants and exchanges were there in July 2011 compared to now? That's the biggest factor in if it will play out similarly in my opinion.

[samson]

It's interesting that news isn't affecting the price much anymore. I mean just today, http://www.gyft.com is pretty huge news. I can go to almost every retail store I normally shop at in the U.S, and pay with bitcoins through them.

Fundamentals are improving as fast as ever, regardless of what the price is doing. Now we just need some of these new exchanges to be successful.

Not affecting it immediately and clearly perhaps but you can be sure it does affect it.

As dull as it is, we need a period of nothing, calm, stability, no panics.

If we manage that for a week or so we can skip the whole slow demise we saw in 2011.

If we stay at the current price for a week don't we break the trendlines ?

[Frozenlock]

Guys... The Humble Double Fine Bundle now accepts BITCOIN!

If Totalbiscuit starts talking about it...  

[N12]

If we stay at the current price for a week don't we break the trendlines ?

We'll just draw new ones. On log charts, of course.

[samson]

If we stay at the current price for a week don't we break the trendlines ?

We'll just draw new ones. On log charts, of course.

Ok cool, I was getting worried there for a minute !

[oda.krell]

I believe that the ascending bullish lows represent the notion that the underlying long term trend is consistent with the January-March trend, e.g. doubling every 30 days. This notion is unsustainable.

I believe that the descending bearish highs represent the bubble collapse. Bubble theory says that typical bubbles give back all their speculative gains.

Perhaps one month from the April 10 peak at $266 is long enough for the predominant trader sentiment to shift to the fact that the waves of new buyers are diminishing, causing demand to likewise diminish, causing prices to likewise diminish.

Sorry to dig up a slightly older post (posted earlier today, already 4 pages in o_O), but this is a pet peeve of mine:

No, the "January-March trend [...] doubling every 30 days" is not per se, as you say, "unsustainable". What you're doing there is repeating the worn-out mantra "exponential growth is not sustainable". Unless of course when it is, either in finance, or in nature[1].

What you probably should have said would have been something like: "a given exponential growth function, causally connected (however losely) to something of finite quantity, will eventually reach a point at which it drastically outgrows said finite quantity".

This is not just some empty semantic nitpicking. The difference in wording here amounts to the difference between lazy repetition of half-understood claims about the world, and a meaningful statement about the sustainability of growth.

Please note: I am not making any claims about the correctness of the January trendline. I just refuse to let a lazy statement like that slide by, that at face value claims that exponential growth is somehow an oddity, and its usage as a way to model reality ought to be rejected.

If you think that a particular exponential trend is not accurate, present your arguments (for fairness sake, in other threads you have been doing that. Sort of.). But the statement as it stands, in its unconditional form, is not fundamentally different from a perma-bull's battle cry "We'll inevitably reach 300k USD/btc next week". Both claims are devoid of information.

* * *

[1] A common rebuttal to the Apple case is "But now the price comes crashing down! So exponential growth is unsustainable after all". The fallacy here is of course that just because at a certain point exponential growth of a given magnitude must end, does not imply that up to that point the growth was not accurately described by a particular exponential function.

[Frozenlock]

If we stay at the current price for a week don't we break the trendlines ?

We'll just draw new ones. On log charts, of course.

Anything that isn't on a log chart is just chart manipulation.