Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TiagoTiago]

A stable sine wave of about 20USD of amplitude and about 15 minutes of wavelength for a few days would be nice...

[notme]

A stable sine wave of about 20USD of amplitude and about 15 minutes of wavelength for a few days would be nice...

My market making bot would make bank wallet.dat.

[ShroomsKit]

still finding it difficult understanding why so many here are expecting a big dip, wasn't around the last bubble or any other investment bubble for that matter, but there's a lot of fiat sitting in exchanges atm wanting to get back in.

Correction, hoping for a big dip. Here's how it works.

If you have all BTC, you're a bull. Rocket fuel, to the moon, China is a super power. Even bears stfu when they have BTC.

If you're currently sitting with no BTC, it's bubble, crash, Gox sux, charts with lines, chick little in da house.

Most people don't even believe what they say, they are just hoping for the market to go up/down to suit their needs. Don't bother asking them to explain, they'll just shit more FUD in your lap. Everyone else who isn't bullshitting the forum, is just speculating. Because no one really has a clue. If the guys making the charts could actually predict the market movements, they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts trying to convince people. People make charts to convince themselves, and if people agree that's all the better.

Best and most true post in this huge thread.

[Odalv]

It's interesting that news isn't affecting the price much anymore. I mean just today, http://www.gyft.com is pretty huge news. I can go to almost every retail store I normally shop at in the U.S, and pay with bitcoins through them.

Fundamentals are improving as fast as ever, regardless of what the price is doing. Now we just need some of these new exchanges to be successful.

Not affecting it immediately and clearly perhaps but you can be sure it does affect it.

As dull as it is, we need a period of nothing, calm, stability, no panics.

If we manage that for a week or so we can skip the whole slow demise we saw in 2011.

I'm not sure you can set up RULES :-)

[DougTanner]

1000 BTC sold . Price didn't move much.

[ChartBuddy]

[fitty]

1000 BTC sold . Price didn't move much.

A lot of buying pressure, it's just that no one wants to chew threw that $2.2M boat load of coins from $114-$120. If the asks want to come down to $108-$112 they'll sell coins all day.

[ElectricMucus]

1000 BTC sold . Price didn't move much.

I think there is plenty much where that came from.

[SlipperySlope]

I believe that the ascending bullish lows represent the notion that the underlying long term trend is consistent with the January-March trend, e.g. doubling every 30 days. This notion is unsustainable.

I believe that the descending bearish highs represent the bubble collapse. Bubble theory says that typical bubbles give back all their speculative gains.

Perhaps one month from the April 10 peak at $266 is long enough for the predominant trader sentiment to shift to the fact that the waves of new buyers are diminishing, causing demand to likewise diminish, causing prices to likewise diminish.

Sorry to dig up a slightly older post (posted earlier today, already 4 pages in o_O), but this is a pet peeve of mine:

No, the "January-March trend [...] doubling every 30 days" is not per se, as you say, "unsustainable". What you're doing there is repeating the worn-out mantra "exponential growth is not sustainable". Unless of course when it is, either in finance, or in nature[1].

What you probably should have said would have been something like: "a given exponential growth function, causally connected (however losely) to something of finite quantity, will eventually reach a point at which it drastically outgrows said finite quantity".

This is not just some empty semantic nitpicking. The difference in wording here amounts to the difference between lazy repetition of half-understood claims about the world, and a meaningful statement about the sustainability of growth.

Please note: I am not making any claims about the correctness of the January trendline. I just refuse to let a lazy statement like that slide by, that at face value claims that exponential growth is somehow an oddity, and its usage as a way to model reality ought to be rejected.

If you think that a particular exponential trend is not accurate, present your arguments (for fairness sake, in other threads you have been doing that. Sort of.). But the statement as it stands, in its unconditional form, is not fundamentally different from a perma-bull's battle cry "We'll inevitably reach 300k USD/btc next week". Both claims are devoid of information.

* * *

[1] A common rebuttal to the Apple case is "But now the price comes crashing down! So exponential growth is unsustainable after all". The fallacy here is of course that just because at a certain point exponential growth of a given magnitude must end, does not imply that up to that point the growth was not accurately described by a particular exponential function.

Respectfully, it is surprising to me that with your attention to semantics you missed the distinguishing point that I made.

Of course I take for granted that doubling of bitcoin price every 30 days is not something that can go on forever,

The market has already demonstrated that the January to March trendline was not sustainable - the crash from $266 fell right through it. One must have numerical blinders on not to recognize bitcoin prices cannot double every thirty days indefinitely.

Exponential bitcoin growth is happening now at perhaps 4-5x annually when measured according to the prominent lows of bitcoin prices at Mt.Gox 2011 to present.

What I actually said was that the notion is unsustainable. If bitcoin stops going up, then obviously the notion, i.e. belief that it will keep doublling upwards every 30 days,  becomes less prevalent - right?

[adamstgBit]

1000 BTC sold . Price didn't move much.

I think there is plenty more where that came from.

enough to satisfy demand?

[Rampion]

1000 BTC sold . Price didn't move much.

I think there is plenty more where that came from.

enough to satisfy demand?

That's the point. I say yes, ATM. I'm sure you agree

[Rockford]

I am truly intrigued by the movement the last three days... and I was actually quite productive with my work  
I think if there are new people to the market they might enjoy this price "stability" and consider buying in if they were waiting for an entry point.
Bitcoin was especially scary the days before.

Did anyone read from Loaded? I have a feeling he might show up the next days...

[fitty]

If the guys making the charts could actually predict the market movements, they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts trying to convince people.

\troll
Yeah, that's not like any of us bought BTCs years ago because we predicted it would go up.  


Anyhow, a little introduction to TA for the interested:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIdzeC77eOo&list=UUL9No2CVecC_8WazyduwHaw

You buying BTC in 2011 had nothing to do with TA or charts. Give yourself the credit for that, you saw the potential (I've read your posts).

[SlipperySlope]

I am truly intrigued by the movement the last three days... and I was actually quite productive with my work  
I think if there are new people to the market they might enjoy this price "stability" and consider buying in if they were waiting for an entry point.
Bitcoin was especially scary the days before.

Did anyone read from Loaded? I have a feeling he might show up the next days...

Indeed his absence here is telling in itself.

[meowmeowbrowncow]

A stable sine wave of about 20USD of amplitude and about 15 minutes of wavelength for a few days would be nice...

The Bitcoin market is more polar.

i.e.

[Frozenlock]

If the guys making the charts could actually predict the market movements, they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts trying to convince people.

\troll
Yeah, that's not like any of us bought BTCs years ago because we predicted it would go up.  


Anyhow, a little introduction to TA for the interested:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SIdzeC77eOo&list=UUL9No2CVecC_8WazyduwHaw

You buying BTC in 2011 had nothing to do with TA or charts. Give yourself the credit for that, you saw the potential (I've read your posts).

No, I wasn't defending TA with this, simply pointing out that "they'd be rich and they wouldn't be on here making charts" wasn't exactly true.
(With a tongue-in-cheek, I must admit.)

Edit: I saw the potential, but I was also too entrenched to recognize the possibility of a bear market. Now at least I'm sitting on the fence.

[Rampion]

Respectfully, it is surprising to me that with your attention to semantics you missed the distinguishing point that I made.

Of course I take for granted that doubling of bitcoin price every 30 days is not something that can go on forever,

The market has already demonstrated that the January to March trendline was not sustainable - the crash from $266 fell right through it. One must have numerical blinders on not to recognize bitcoin prices cannot double every thirty days indefinitely.

What I actually said was that the notion is unsustainable. If bitcoin stops going up, then obviously the notion, i.e. belief that it will keep doublling upwards every 30 days,  becomes less prevalent - right?

I agree with oda.krell in principle, however pragmatically speaking you are 100% correct here.

Doubling every 30 days would be a 4000-fold increase each year. I think double every 6 months or so would be much more reasonable/sustainable. If you think that is slow, you should recalculate. Bitcoin would reach trillion dollar market size within 5 years, if we experienced such "moderate" growth starting now  

Both oda.krell and SlipperySlope are correct. Bitcoin huge potential is scary in itself. It's a wild motherfucker, and as soon as it gets so big that the powerful realize that it will truly endanger their position, they will have to make a call.

Freedom, greed and fear - all these elements play a fundamental role in bitcoin.

And its growing.

[molecular]

Guys... The Humble Double Fine Bundle now accepts BITCOIN!

If Totalbiscuit starts talking about it...  

what the...



magicaltux payed $2048. dunno what to say...

[Frozenlock]

Guys... The Humble Double Fine Bundle now accepts BITCOIN!

If Totalbiscuit starts talking about it...  

what the...



magicaltux payed $2048. dunno what to say...

He is often in the top donors.

[davincisolari]

I'm really enjoying the price stability the past few days.  If it continues I do think it will be quite good for bitcoin adoption.  As the market is typically extremely volitile it does make me think that there are people who are creating the stability intentionally.  If so, keep up the good work.  Do others think this as well?