Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[MickeyT2008]

ClarkMoody tracker seems to be down, maybe it got bored and fell asleep.  Not much happening right now anyway.  Bitcoinity is still working though

[oda.krell]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

(aside: looks like I'm developing a habit to dig up older posts. oh well)

That's the million dollar question, I'd say. Here's a somewhat related observation I made during the last days:

Take the order book. (ignore for a moment the objection that some/many/all of the orders are fake). The last days saw a rather drastic increase of the bid sum/ask sum ratio (visualized nicely on blockchained). There's another calculation I make routinely, seeing how far the price would go in either directions if the entire bid sum or ask sum (or parts of it) were executed as market orders. Don't know if that technique has a fancy name (maybe 'market execution price'?), but it takes into account not only the order totals but also the price distribution.

Okay, here's the observation: the average of that execution price was rising even more sharply than the bid sum/ask sum ratio lately. Which means not only did more money enter the order book (and/or coins left it), but that order prices appreciated as well.

The conclusion I draw is that a big reason why we saw the current upward breakout is that a) new orders were placed (duh!), and b) buyers adjusted their existing orders after realizing that their overly optimistic price setting for entering the market won't be met anytime soon (less of a duh). And I suspect this trend will continue.

[ChartBuddy]

[prophetx]

My gut is screaming bull trap

My gut is screaming bull trap, bear market, capitulation, and bear trap all at the same time.


Getting mixed signals here.

Once, when asked about his gut feeling, Carl Sagan said: "I'd really rather not think with my gut, my brain does the job a lot better"  

Don't prodigies and athletes use the least amount of brain power? In fact high level operation has often been (curiously) linked to lower brain activity. Perhaps this has something to do with the subconscious. Anyways, I'm sticking to what I thought 10 or so days ago: downtrend.

Edit: that being said... I'm getting super impatient.

This pretty much sums up the market at the moment. Everyone thinks they will be able to get cheaper coins... but the longer they wait, the less likely that becomes. Once the bids exceed the all time high (not far off), I can see a massive spell of panic buying ensuing.

I'm willing to buy back in at a loss, even if it makes me bleed out, it's been far too long for the case to be otherwise, however, I'm still kind of thinking that BTC is overvalued at the moment. I'm leaving emotion out of this. It seems like bulls are always the same, and while I'm not a bear I just can' see sustainable growth right now.

The Venture capital, techcrunch activity and China are all massive, massive indicators on a medium/ long term... which is why I'm surprised we are not seeing more activity. Seems many are like you, not noticing how big these impacts will be. When the products/ deals/ whatever they spawn are announced (or before they are announced), make no mistake, it will be vicious and many hoping for cheap coins will be left on the sidelines.

As you said those are all medium to long term plays, which means little incremental ups over a long extended period of time as milestones are met.  

Contrast that to Cyprus which was very short term, in your face, get your f--kin money out NOW! As that new flow came in, more people jumped on the band wagon.


See the difference?

Cyprus thing is a joke. That was just speculative mania. I will ask you something: have you invested significant money in Bitcoin? If the answer is yes, how long did it take from the first moment you heard about it?

Again: entering into Bitcoin is a lengthy process - first you have to understand, not only what is Bitcoin but also how to keep your bitcoins safe. Then you have to find out how to buy them, and then you slowly start pouring money, just a little a the beginning.

That's everybody's process. When it will come the day that the average citizen will have the understanding and the means to quickly throw a lot of fiat into Bitcoin after the kind of news we had in March, then.... Well, you cannot imagine the kind of huge motherfucking bubbles we are going to see.

I am only stating through those examples that you ought not be surprised that news has little significant immediate impact and that it correlates with insignificant up or down swings in the price of BTC since as you point out it is long term.  People will not learn this stuff over night.  

As for me I have not put 1 red cent into bitcoin.  Only sweat and brain power.  And it has treated me well.

[MickeyT2008]

ClarkMoody tracker seems to be down, maybe it got bored and fell asleep.  Not much happening right now anyway.  Bitcoinity is still working though

Our old friend ChartBuddy's still awake it seems

[fourkey2001]

117.61 to 118.35

so boring

[michaelGedi]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

(aside: looks like I'm developing a habit to dig up older posts. oh well)

That's the million dollar question, I'd say. Here's a somewhat related observation I made during the last days:

Take the order book. (ignore for a moment the objection that some/many/all of the orders are fake). The last days saw a rather drastic increase of the bid sum/ask sum ratio (visualized nicely on blockchained). There's another calculation I make routinely, seeing how far the price would go in either directions if the entire bid sum or ask sum (or parts of it) were executed as market orders. Don't know if that technique has a fancy name (maybe 'market execution price'?), but it takes into account not only the order totals but also the price distribution.

Okay, here's the observation: the average of that execution price was rising even more sharply than the bid sum/ask sum ratio lately. Which means not only did more money enter the order book (and/or coins left it), but that order prices appreciated as well.

The conclusion I draw is that a big reason why we saw the current upward breakout is that a) new orders were placed (duh!), and b) buyers adjusted their existing orders after realizing that their overly optimistic price setting for entering the market won't be met anytime soon (less of a duh). And I suspect this trend will continue.

brilliant, thanks for the response. This makes sense

[michaelGedi]

117.61 to 118.35

so boring

dump all coins then and walk away, please?

[fourkey2001]

Not yet

[UltimateReaper]

clarkmoody is down, gox live seems frozen... anyone got the 411?

[solex]

My own little nagging to the bears. 

I like this so much I think I will print it out to pin on the wall 

[michaelGedi]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201240.0

[Coinseeker]

5 point jump and they swear its a bull market.   

[mb300sd]

[solex]

...

haha. that wasn't a prediction (except that I said I favored green scenario). If we include your grey scenario (sideways for a while in white area in my pic), what I layed out pretty much covered all possibilities. Easy to be correct then.

Although I prepared for a drop I must admit I'm pretty relieved we broke upwards. Initially (couple days ago) I had been quite certain move would be up, but had increasingly become worried about the possibilities red/yellow. Probably have been reading too many bear threads... really gets to you after a while.

Let's see how much momentum this has... who knows, maybe it's a bull-trap.

Agreed with your thinking. Also, there are so many people following TA that the spike might be driven by the trend-line watchers jumping in and momentum becomes self-fulfilling. A breakout usually retests support before taking off. Heading for a retest at the moment...

[ChartBuddy]

[fourkey2001]

Hello chart buddy

[Rampion]

...

haha. that wasn't a prediction (except that I said I favored green scenario). If we include your grey scenario (sideways for a while in white area in my pic), what I layed out pretty much covered all possibilities. Easy to be correct then.

Although I prepared for a drop I must admit I'm pretty relieved we broke upwards. Initially (couple days ago) I had been quite certain move would be up, but had increasingly become worried about the possibilities red/yellow. Probably have been reading too many bear threads... really gets to you after a while.

Let's see how much momentum this has... who knows, maybe it's a bull-trap.

Agreed with your thinking. Also, there are so many people following TA that the spike might be driven by the trend-line watchers jumping in and momentum becomes self-fulfilling. A breakout usually retests support before taking off. Heading for a retest at the moment...

I would be surprised by too much action on this weekend.

[fourkey2001]

...

haha. that wasn't a prediction (except that I said I favored green scenario). If we include your grey scenario (sideways for a while in white area in my pic), what I layed out pretty much covered all possibilities. Easy to be correct then.

Although I prepared for a drop I must admit I'm pretty relieved we broke upwards. Initially (couple days ago) I had been quite certain move would be up, but had increasingly become worried about the possibilities red/yellow. Probably have been reading too many bear threads... really gets to you after a while.

Let's see how much momentum this has... who knows, maybe it's a bull-trap.

Agreed with your thinking. Also, there are so many people following TA that the spike might be driven by the trend-line watchers jumping in and momentum becomes self-fulfilling. A breakout usually retests support before taking off. Heading for a retest at the moment...

I would be surprised by too much action on this weekend.

Is this down?
http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com

[Richy_T]

This is what I was thinking aswell. I was actually thinking about doing a startup, a website where you can only buy Bitcoins. That's it, nothing else. Make it work INSTANTLY without any delays whatsoever, with common payment methods including Paypal (I think people can't put money in BTC's because Paypal is mostly unavailable, thats the problem I had when I first started) - Right now getting Bitcoins is a very long process that can take weeks if you take the Mt.Gox verification into account. On that website I could sell Bitcoins instantly, but maybe at a higher price than the current market situation [+5%] so I still make a profit.

I thought about maybe making a kickstarter for it or something similar but I don't know...

Likely you would have to charge much more than that as you will be flooded by chargeback scammers.