Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[infofront]

Has BCC spread outside China

Like AIDS.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

And no, I am not BlindMayorBitcoin

[jbreher]

The r/btc crowd would pick over the whiskers in Greg's beard before it considered thinking about the miner centralization. Because revolution!

I find it somewhat curious that you are deriding others' thoughts about centralization, while invoking "the whiskers in Greg's beard".

sheesh!

[jbreher]

We could have 20 MB blocks and it would still be trivial to run a node at home on a single machine.  Mining is at peak centralization now for one reason: ASICs.  There are precious few manufacturers and they are smart enough to realize it is more profitable to just use them then to sell them.  If mining hardware were more widely available there would be much less centralization.  Block size is a red herring.

Of course, I'm merely guessing, but I guess you've not seen the recent work calculating the GINI coefficients regarding mining vis a vis other aspects of the ecosystem?

[xhomerx10]

The difficulty has already went up for BCH, hours ago. Surprisingly, the average block time has only been about 15 minutes since then. They may be able to go this entire 2016 blocks without the emergency difficulty adjustment kicking in.

Interesting I thought it was later tonight. Maybe things won't play out the way I described above but we will see. I have my popcorn ready just in case.

Maybe a lot of the miners that they have retained just haven't had the chance to change where their miners are pointed to. We'll get a better idea how it goes in about 24 hours, to see how many devotees they managed to retain. Perhaps some miners are speculating the the BCH will pump up the market again to attract the lost miners back.

 ...so the value of BCH will be pumped to ~ US$1250?

Not taking into consideration the profit made from transaction fees, BCH must command a price of 272,888,550,038.82/923,233,068,449=0.29557926309 BTC for their profitability to be on parity with BTC.

 So help me out here please; I'm a little tired so I might be way off.

 The average of the last 10 or so blocks is about 14k USD per Bitcoin block in fees and the average for the last same number of blocks for Bitcoin Cash is SFA in fees (less than $1).  Does this mean that in addition to the 0.29557926309 BTC we need to add $14,000/12.5 BCH to the value of each coin to make it equally profitable to mine BCH?  In this case, I think we're looking at a BCH value of around US$2,330 per BCH just to make mining one or the other equivalent.

 With the 4X higher difficulty, the last 10 average block time is now 20.5 minutes.  Why do so many continue to mine the less profitable B_itCH?

edit: SFA is closer to $25 than my initial less than $1 estimate.  I believe it is still SFA when compared to $14k

[jbreher]

Jbreher is...getting paid, trolling ore just plain stupid to see what the consequences are when Jihan takes the lead.

Pick one assertion and stick with it... ASSHOLE.

[xhomerx10]

Jbreher is...getting paid, trolling ore just plain stupid to see what the consequences are when Jihan takes the lead.

Pick one assertion and stick with it... ASSHOLE.

Hey. I'm thinking of dumping 100 B_itCH in the next hour or so.

Do you think it's gonna head back north of $700 or should I just dump it in one go on a market order and see what happens ?

 IDK... there's $555k USD between now and $700 on Kraken and the B_itCH_'s hashrate is falling.  There would have to be some intervention to prop it up... I'm only guessing though.

[jbreher]

Jbreher is...getting paid, trolling ore just plain stupid to see what the consequences are when Jihan takes the lead.

Pick one assertion and stick with it... ASSHOLE.

Hey. I'm thinking of dumping 100 B_itCH in the next hour or so.

Do you think it's gonna head back north of $700 or should I just dump it in one go on a market order and see what happens ?

Curious why you quoted me in your post, BobLawblaw. Frankly, I don't know what your optimal timing is. Moreover, as you know, I have an interest in Bitcoin Cash's future, while you seem directly antagonistic thereof.

I'm suggesting we drop the pretenses, and have you drop your load where you may.

If ever we meet in RL, I would hope that we could laugh over a beer.

(Incidentally, 100 BCH is like... what... 13 BTC? oooh... skeered!)

edit: <<trembling intensifies>>

[bones261]

The difficulty has already went up for BCH, hours ago. Surprisingly, the average block time has only been about 15 minutes since then. They may be able to go this entire 2016 blocks without the emergency difficulty adjustment kicking in.

Interesting I thought it was later tonight. Maybe things won't play out the way I described above but we will see. I have my popcorn ready just in case.

Maybe a lot of the miners that they have retained just haven't had the chance to change where their miners are pointed to. We'll get a better idea how it goes in about 24 hours, to see how many devotees they managed to retain. Perhaps some miners are speculating the the BCH will pump up the market again to attract the lost miners back.

 ...so the value of BCH will be pumped to ~ US$1250?

Not taking into consideration the profit made from transaction fees, BCH must command a price of 272,888,550,038.82/923,233,068,449=0.29557926309 BTC for their profitability to be on parity with BTC.

 So help me out here please; I'm a little tired so I might be way off.

 The average of the last 10 or so blocks is about 14k USD per Bitcoin block in fees and the average for the last same number of blocks for Bitcoin Cash is SFA in fees (less than $1).  Does this mean that in addition to the 0.29557926309 BTC we need to add $14,000/12.5 BCH to the value of each coin to make it equally profitable to mine BCH?  In this case, I think we're looking at a BCH value of around US$2,330 per BCH just to make mining one or the other equivalent.

 With the 4X higher difficulty, the last 10 average block time is now 20.5 minutes.  Why do so many continue to mine the less profitable B_itCH?

Let's just make this a simple approximation. Let's say the fees add an additional 25% to the profitability to BTC. (Not all pools share the fee, Antpool doesn't.) Then 0.29557926309*1.25 = 0.36947407886 BTC. At the moment, the average BTC price is 4087.64USD per BitcoinWisdom. So BCH would have to be at 1208.22 USD for the profitability to be on parity with BTC. It looks like your estimate of $1250USD was pretty close.

[Mrpumperitis]

Bones is right, just over a week ago , he said it had to be 0.17ish and he was spot on, and bch got there.
This week its higher, and it will get there to, over 0.3 and maybe over 0.4.

[xhomerx10]

Bones is right, just over a week ago , he said it had to be 0.17ish and he was spot on, and bch got there.
This week its higher, and it will get there to, over 0.3 and maybe over 0.4.

 Let's hope it doesn't get there because Bitcoin drops to $2220 

[jbreher]

Moreover, as you know, I have an interest in Bitcoin Cash's future, while you seem directly antagonistic thereof.
I'm suggesting we drop the pretenses, and have you drop your load where you may.

Is your face an option ?

Zing!

Well...no. For one, I don't swing that way, For two, I'm not a bottom for any 'power top' (or any other 'top', FTM), and For three, we scarcely know each other. Though your invitation to a greater level of intimacy is duly noted.

No - I was referring to your big-ol-chunk-o-change, which you seemed to be thereuopn soliciting advice.

I like free RogerBucks... minus the 40% that has to go to Uncle Sam.

So what -- precisely -- is the problem?

[bones261]

Bones is right, just over a week ago , he said it had to be 0.17ish and he was spot on, and bch got there.
This week its higher, and it will get there to, over 0.3 and maybe over 0.4.

 Let's hope it doesn't get there because Bitcoin drops to $2220  

If that happened Jimbo might break his favorite BTC ATM, from overuse.  

[jbreher]

So I watch another index of my own invention. (Granted, all y'all may be watching the same index, but may or may not have quantified it as such).

'What index', you may ask? Well, it is the bitcointalk page depth index. At the end of the day, check how many new pages of drek have been added to BCT's leading forum (Bitcoin Forum > Bitcoin > Bitcoin Discussion).

Today, I count six. Six pages of drek, mostly filled with noobs being noobish. While this is tiresome, it is also a very bullish indicator. That's about half again our usual influx of newcomers to the crypto revolution.

Tomorrow we dine upon yeast piss and aborted sturgeon progeny!

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Tomorrow we dine upon yeast piss and aborted sturgeon progeny!

Now that I get.

[zlep]

I just want to buy some BTC to trade them into IOTA 

[Elwar]

Though the bitcoin price did not skyrocket when it hit $4,400 I am comforted by the fact that we are not in an exponential rise. This whole bull run has been fairly conservative.

I don't see a huge crash coming any time soon like we saw in 2013. If it continues it's fairly slow climb I will be pleased. Even if the climb slows to a crawl until the next quick rise.

[becoin]

People continue to dump their BCH as soon as they manage to split the free money drop from bitcoins. BCH paid trolls getting desperate.

[vit05]

everything is green right now on coinmarketcap

[becoin]

everything is green right now on coinmarketcap

Everything on coinmarketcap has to be measured in bitcoins not in dollars. Only measured in bitcoins reveals the true picture!