Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[oda.krell]

Maybe we're not going to see a major upward breakout over the weekend, but I don't see any real chance for a downward breakout approaching 100 at the moment. Not with an order book filled to the brim, money flow continuing to be positive and 3 different oscillators saying we're oversold.

One can remain oversold/overbought for a looooong time.

Sure. But like I said, we're not only oversold, also money flow is positive, and has been for a week now, and the order book totals were getting better each day (not entirely accurate, slightly went down since yesterday). Any of these three facts alone is worthless maybe, but together they look like pretty good evidence to me that we won't see a big slump in the coming days.

[smoothie]

Don't forget the herd mentality.

Just because the orderbook is full now doesn't mean it will be in 1 to 3 months.

Not a bear but also not going to overlook the possibility that the price can go down.

[old_engineer]

Oh word I hear ya, based on the trading we've seen though, basically ~90%+ of 24hr volume has come in two 30 minute candles, which to me means we've seen two major sells (~400k, and ~1m) rather than broad based selling... the other volume that has happened is so small to mean nothing. large percentage is probably just bot noise.

About 500 btc of this selling came from margin short selling on bitfinex, with two medium-size sales of 420 btc and 208 btc about 3 hours ago:
https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/public_log

My take is that the T&A crowd seems more sure of their analysis than anyone else, and use margin trading to push for their desired result.

[Frozenlock]

How do you see it's a short selling?

[old_engineer]

How do you see it's a short selling?

Can't know for sure, but any trades with minus number volume are either short sales or the closing of a long position, and my guess is that it's the former given the recent downtrend.

[ChartBuddy]

[Coinseeker]

Maybe we're not going to see a major upward breakout over the weekend, but I don't see any real chance for a downward breakout approaching 100 at the moment. Not with an order book filled to the brim, money flow continuing to be positive and 3 different oscillators saying we're oversold.

This is a pretty good point.  The money flow index has been the only thing I've seen (not saying there aren't others) that has been pretty consistent in predicting a rise or fall.  Everything outside of 2 days says the same thing...we're oversold.  If I remove bias for cheap coins, and just predict as I did recently on the 110 and 114 peaks, I'd have to say this thing should correct around 120-125.  After that we'd be moving seriously back into an over bought position.

Still, I just don't see how we aren't going to retest our lows.  Anything is possible of course but it just doesn't seem logical to me.  Then again, this is Bitcoin.   

[Nightowlace]

Millions of dollars are being deposited daily on Gox, only a few hundred thousand dollars a day are being taken off of Gox. I would say that many are "waiting to see what happens". When and if they choose to put that fiat to use is the big question right now.

I've seen charts reflecting downtrend only to rise, charts that suggested rise only to crash, speculations, media buying, panic selling, panic buying, and just recently a ddos attack that sent the price up.

The conclusion and results are always the same; You can not predict bitcoin movement. You can try and might hit it correctly some of the time but ultimately I believe the only safe bet is a long position cashing out a bit as you go and only as you need to.

[Coinseeker]

Well I'm definitely not taking anything out.  When I put it in I said it's basically gone so either Bitcoin collapses and I go broke or I do very well.  But you're right about the charts.  This low volume, no movement is just puzzling.  Can't figure what to make of it.  Up or down...who knows?

[ChartBuddy]

[dbru77]

Millions of dollars are being deposited daily on Gox, only a few hundred thousand dollars a day are being taken off of Gox.

At least that's what Gox reported. When they made the statement it was maybe true (for one day or two, next to the bubble)
Is it still true (if it was true at all)?

Next: Withdrawal restrictions. Deposit 1 Million $ at Gox? One transaction. To withdraw your money completely, you have to make many small transactions over a longer period of time.
The amount of money going into Gox being higher than the amount of money withdrawn in any given period of time is not very surprising.

If the quoted statement is true then there are dozens of Millions at Gox just hanging around in stand-by. Which means: No interest rates and not quickly withdrawable. I can't really imagine why big investors would do that, but maybe that's just me.

[Frozenlock]

Which means: No interest rates and not quickly withdrawable. I can't really imagine why big investors would do that, but maybe that's just me.

To buy cheap coins.
Very, very cheap coins. 

[dbru77]

Which means: No interest rates and not quickly withdrawable. I can't really imagine why big investors would do that, but maybe that's just me.

To buy cheap coins.
Very, very cheap coins. 

Maybe

[fourkey2001]

I am speculating a solid dump by Monday and prices to go down to 80 ish

[Nightowlace]

Millions of dollars are being deposited daily on Gox, only a few hundred thousand dollars a day are being taken off of Gox.

At least that's what Gox reported. When they made the statement it was maybe true (for one day or two, next to the bubble)
Is it still true (if it was true at all)?

Next: Withdrawal restrictions. Deposit 1 Million $ at Gox? One transaction. To withdraw your money completely, you have to make many small transactions over a longer period of time.
The amount of money going into Gox being higher than the amount of money withdrawn in any given period of time is not very surprising.

If the quoted statement is true then there are dozens of Millions at Gox just hanging around in stand-by. Which means: No interest rates and not quickly withdrawable. I can't really imagine why big investors would do that, but maybe that's just me.

That is not true. You may increase your withdrawal limits fairly easy.

"If you wish to increase your withdrawal limit you will need to send us a copy of your official government photo ID (such as a scan of your passport and/or drivers license) plus a copy of your utility bill (private) or corporate information (company)."

If you are a US citizen using Gox you're halfway there!

[Nightowlace]

I am speculating a solid dump by Monday and prices to go down to 80 ish

Care to place a wager on that?

[Arcas]

5 Dollar drop in seconds? What is going on?

[adamstgBit]

5 Dollar drop in seconds? What is going on?

what market are you looking at?

[Le Happy Merchant]

I am speculating a solid dump by Monday and prices to go down to 80 ish

You really should just lurk more.

[Arcas]

5 Dollar drop in seconds? What is going on?

what market are you looking at?

campbx

http://bitcoinity.org/markets/campbx/USD