Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[HerrDoktor]

If there's bigger news in the morning about DHS launching criminal proceedings against Gox, yesterday's downswing will look mild. If the biggest BTC exchange loses the ability to do business with US clients, that's a _huge_ problem, and not at all a case of having weak hands or being too bearish.

Oh for sure.  If they go after Gox directly...that's 80% of the market, frozen.  These prices may make no sense to me at the moment but there is no way, I'd be keeping anything at Gox right now.  You're just asking to lose it all.  And nothing says they have to give it back either.  

On a side note:  This stuff is really fascinating.  What a unique time in history.  

The solution is to keep your assets in BTC in your own wallet, not as fiat or BTC in exchange accounts.

Which really is nothing new.

Please dont apply some common sense to this. Didnt you get the mail ? Its a panic and everything is going to xplode soon.  

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[dexX7]

Your constant desire to buy lower (along with others like you) when you have already had ample opportunity is what is devaluing the currency. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At some point, the momentum of what you are trying to do in the short term  will overwhelm any momentum that will allow you to gain longer-term. People will just get bored. Then you can buy your cheap coins, and keep them.

+1

Where do you guys read about Dwolla before the news broke??

Many threads on this forum and Reddit. Dwolla send out emails due to their open transparency policy explaining the situation.

[Coinseeker]

Ahh...yes.  They were in hiding just hours ago and now here they come on the hopes the storm has passed.  Come on out of your bunkers...all is fine.  Please...buy, buy, buy.   

[batcoin]

FUD! FUD! ZOMG! THE FUD!

FFS!

[BitPirate]

If there's bigger news in the morning about DHS launching criminal proceedings against Gox, yesterday's downswing will look mild. If the biggest BTC exchange loses the ability to do business with US clients, that's a _huge_ problem, and not at all a case of having weak hands or being too bearish.

Oh for sure.  If they go after Gox directly...that's 80% of the market, frozen.  These prices may make no sense to me at the moment but there is no way, I'd be keeping anything at Gox right now.  You're just asking to lose it all.  And nothing says they have to give it back either.  

On a side note:  This stuff is really fascinating.  What a unique time in history.  

The solution is to keep your assets in BTC in your own wallet, not as fiat or BTC in exchange accounts.

Which really is nothing new.

Buying BTC to transfer out makes sense but holding a devaluing currency is just silly when I can convert to fiat somewhere else and rebuy low.

Your constant desire to buy lower (along with others like you) when you have already had ample opportunity is what is devaluing the currency. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy.

At some point, the momentum of what you are trying to do in the short term  will overwhelm any momentum that will allow you to gain longer-term. People will just get bored. Then you can buy your cheap coins, and keep them.

No, a warrant from homeland security and a possible shutdown of the largest exchange (80%), is devaluing the currency. Don't blame me for being a bear and I still think we're going to double digits and probably retesting our 50-60 lows.  I hope DHS rains fire in the morning.  Cheap coins for all!  Hopefully me saying it does fulfill it.  Happy now?

No, shutting down fiat payment flows does NOT devalue a currency intrinsically able to route around such problems. Furthermore making it more difficult to obtain does not decrease it's value.

Frittering away market value speculatively just at the time when big investors may be looking to come on board, does.

[Coinseeker]

No, shutting down fiat payment flows does NOT devalue a currency intrinsically able to route around such problems. Furthermore making it more difficult to obtain does not decrease it's value.

Frittering away market value speculatively just at the time when big investors may be looking to come on board, does.

Yes because we should all blindly believe that Bitcoin is immune to crashing. You can't "route" around anything without centralized exchanges. Are you serious with this stuff?  Were you even paying attention yesterday?  It's only worth what people say it's worth.  The moment it becomes impossible to get any money out of the system (back into fiat) that's the moment it becomes near worthless.  But that's the gamble right?  Everyone can't be bulls.

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

$4M disappeared from the order book after the Dwolla news (one just came back)

There's people that really gets scared easily.

[Rampion]

Anyhow, you can see how no coins rushed to the exchange after the Dwolla news. Fiat rushed out, but BTC did not rush in - which makes sense, if you use Dwolla there's no point in exchanging your un-seizable currency for seizable fiat.

[Coinseeker]

Anyhow, you can see how no coins rushed to the exchange after the Dwolla news. Fiat rushed out, but BTC did not rush in - which makes sense, if you use Dwolla there's no point in exchanging your un-seizable currency for seizable fiat.

There is if you don't like losing money as BTC prices fall and you want to buy low. Fiat is fine inside of Dwolla, for the moment.  There is nothing illegal about Dwolla.  They are in compliance of US regulations.  (Or so it seems)  But this series of recent comments is really two different conversations.  One of those who want to stash BTC in wallets and go long.  Totally fine and those who want to make money buying in low.  Also fine.  Apples and oranges really.

Additionally, they don't have to "seize" BTC's.  All they have to do is block the flow of fiat in and out, and BTC's becomes worthless.  How some people are waking up trying to hold on to these delusions is simply amazing.  I call it denial.  Bitcoin is only as strong as the fiat it can be converted into.  

[oda.krell]

Okay. Here's a - comparably - positive observation.

The 4 hour charts don't properly show it, but take note for a second that tonight's low was at about 105 USD, and therefore still above the previous "convergence low" [1] on May 7th, which was at 102 USD.

Which is arguably a good sign: the (admittedly) bad news didn't rock the price as hard as the "natural" correction of an overbought state a week earlier.

I'm not ruling out we will test 110 again in the coming days, maybe even 100, but I'm feeling a bit relieved that the market at the moment seems *unsure* how to take in the news, as opposed to the market being *certain* that it is a crippling blow to btc as a whole, in which case we would have seen sub-100 prices immediately.


[1] I believe the post-bubble development can be grouped into the following 3 phases: (1) immediate correction, down to the 60-ish values, ending on April 16th (the phase actually unfolded in 2 steps), (2) sucker's rally and its rejection, ending on May 3rd below 100 (actually in 3 steps), (3) converging trends phase (until now), with the correction downtrend and the long-term uptrend cancelling each other out, leading to relative stability. Well, "stability" until yesterday.

[Le Happy Merchant]

The moment it becomes impossible to get any money out of the system (back into fiat) that's the moment it becomes near worthless.

I don't think you understand how Bitcoin works.

If I am willing to sell $100 worth of goods for a Bitcoin, and I can safely assume that an equitable exchange is being offered by somebody else, then that sets the value. It isn't about getting dollars back out at the end.

Looking at it as a price-first-then-trade instead of trade-first-then-price valuation system is putting the cart before the horse, and has a negative impact on the actual utility of Bitcoins.

[Coinseeker]

The moment it becomes impossible to get any money out of the system (back into fiat) that's the moment it becomes near worthless.

I don't think you understand how Bitcoin works.

If I am willing to sell $100 worth of goods for a Bitcoin, and I can safely assume that an equitable exchange is being offered by somebody else, then that sets the value. It isn't about getting dollars back out at the end.

Looking at it as a price-first-then-trade instead of trade-first-then-price valuation system is putting the cart before the horse, and has a negative impact on the actual utility of Bitcoins.

This assumes you have mass adoption, which Bitcoin does not.  It has a black market for buying goods which hardly gives it tremendous value.  There is a reason businesses, especially US businesses are not excepting Bitcoin.  They know by the laws on the books already, that Bitcoin is illegal.  No mass adoption, no value.  So the only value you have, is what you can drum up in the black market.

The only reason the prices have reached +100...is because of speculative greed.  Nothing more, nothing less.

[Rampion]

Anyhow, you can see how no coins rushed to the exchange after the Dwolla news. Fiat rushed out, but BTC did not rush in - which makes sense, if you use Dwolla there's no point in exchanging your un-seizable currency for seizable fiat.

There is if you don't like losing money as BTC prices fall and you want to buy low. Fiat is fine inside of Dwolla, for the moment.  There is nothing illegal about Dwolla.  They are in compliance of US regulations.  (Or so it seems)  But this series of recent comments is really two different conversations.  One of those who want to stash BTC in wallets and go long.  Totally fine and those who want to make money buying in low.  Also fine.  Apples and oranges really.

Additionally, the don't have to "seize" BTC's.  All they have to do is block the flow of fiat in and out, and BTC's becomes worthless.  How some people are waking up trying to hold on to these delusions is simply amazing.  I call it denial.  Bitcoin is only as strong as the fiat it can be converted into. 

There is nothing illegal about Dwolla? There is nothing illegal about BTC neither.

If you do not see how this kind of news just make stronger Bitcoin in the long term, it has to be because you understand nothing about how BTC works.

You forget there's a lot of people who is not into BTC to get fiat profits. And you also forget USA is not "the world". FED fucking around with BTC? Yeah, that's expected. From the very first moment.

[Coinseeker]

Anyhow, you can see how no coins rushed to the exchange after the Dwolla news. Fiat rushed out, but BTC did not rush in - which makes sense, if you use Dwolla there's no point in exchanging your un-seizable currency for seizable fiat.

There is if you don't like losing money as BTC prices fall and you want to buy low. Fiat is fine inside of Dwolla, for the moment.  There is nothing illegal about Dwolla.  They are in compliance of US regulations.  (Or so it seems)  But this series of recent comments is really two different conversations.  One of those who want to stash BTC in wallets and go long.  Totally fine and those who want to make money buying in low.  Also fine.  Apples and oranges really.

Additionally, the don't have to "seize" BTC's.  All they have to do is block the flow of fiat in and out, and BTC's becomes worthless.  How some people are waking up trying to hold on to these delusions is simply amazing.  I call it denial.  Bitcoin is only as strong as the fiat it can be converted into.  

There is nothing illegal about Dwolla? There is nothing illegal about BTC neither.

If you do not see how this kind of news just make stronger Bitcoin in the long term, it has to be because you understand nothing about how BTC works.

You forget there's a lot of people who is not into BTC to get fiat profits. And you also forget USA is not "the world". FED fucking around with BTC? Yeah, that's expected. From the very first moment.

As the US goes, so goes the rest of the world.  Sorry.  And no, Dwolla is not illegal, where as Bitcoin is in violation of the laws of nearly every country.  Now I agree, this will make Bitcoin stronger which is why I want cheap coins.  If I thought this was going to kill Bitcoin, I'd just walk away.  No, this and the steps to come will bring Bitcoin into compliance of regulations and taxes.  Then business will be free to accept it and mass adoption will take off like a wildfire, shooting BTC prices into the stratosphere.  

EDIT:  "You forget there's a lot of people who is not into BTC to get fiat profits." I didn't forget, I believe that base of users tops out around the $50-$60 mark.  And they are in it for fiat, they just don't need it today.  Those who have this dream of a world of BTC only and fiat will be dead...are even fewer than that.  Probably the $10 mark and below.

[hubbabubbabaker]

Why stop at the stratosphere?

[prof7bit]

[depth vs. time chart]

Would it be possble to plot vol(price) instead of ∫vol(price)?
That way the walls and their size would be much more visible.

[Coinseeker]

Why stop at the stratosphere?

Nice!  Yes you are right.  Why am I aiming so low.  Shame on me.   

[mp420]

And no, Dwolla is not illegal, where as Bitcoin is in violation of the laws of nearly every country.

Bitcoin is not in violation of any laws in most countries. That is, as far as I know, it is perfectly legal to own, buy and sell Bitcoins in most of the world. Many things that can be, and are being, done with Bitcoins ARE in violation of laws, though.

[solex]

...where as Bitcoin is in violation of the laws of nearly every country.  ...

No way. You are spreading FUD.
There is a distinction which needs to be understood. Bitcoin is not a class A drug, or a bottle of your own moonshine whiskey. It is not in violation of laws. Some people who use it might trade illegal items (such as moonshine), but this is true of any medium of exchange. It is what people do with a currency such as evade taxes which can break laws, not the currency itself.