Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[leowonderful]

I hate to be a Debbie Downer but I do not like the risk/reward for btc right now. If we manage to break through $5000 I see a maximum of $5500 to $7000 before a major (meaning painful) correction. I am talking about $2500 to $2800, 50% correction or back to the weekly 20 MA. You know it will come, we just don't know when. I would rather wait for a huge discount to buy. I hope I am wrong, really, but I doubt it.

Cut

It still doesn't hurt to dip your hands into the cookie jar and buy some Bitcoin right now. It's never a good idea to put too much in at one point anyways, and if you only buy a little now and buy the rest later it can't hurt- I also expect we probably won't break $5000 this time around, and we will continue on a temporary downwards trend.

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[gog1]

Time for some consolidation.  Now the Chinese exchanges are at a discount to BFX, stamp, coinbase, etc., that has a to act as a drag.

thoughts?

[pfrtlpfmpf]

Bought at 4453, what more can i do ? My wife says hodl. but i can´t keep my fingers off of it !

[JayJuanGee]

Buying dips as well. It feels like some bearwhale playing dumpy dumpy on low liquidity. Shaking the tree while banks are closed for the long weekend.

Jimbo must be tired of walking back and forth by now...

He's no spring chicken, but whatever does not kill him, will make him stronger.   

[JayJuanGee]

I need to see some volume in this ramp to believe in it

You said that earlier too.  What's your point about the volume?  We have decent overall volume for the past 18 weeks, and going on 5 green weekly candles, too. What is the complaint?  You think we are not stable here, unless we get more volume?  What you are saying does not seem to have any foundation in reality, does it?  

If the price goes up or down dramatically, then we will get a lot of volume and a battle, but if we just have medium volume and ongoing trickling up, like our current state of affairs, then we are not experiencing any problem, are we?

Did I?  Would have been a couple weeks ago.

I should be more specific in my posts Jay.  Long term I am a true believer, really.

I was referring to the very short term ramp we experienced between 16:00 and 23:00 yesterday (UT-8) and my skepticism about that was well founded as it turned out.  All the volume has been with the bears so far since the last ATH and I am looking for buy side volume to signal that we are truly headed back up.

Also not seeing any volume in this $100 runup we have seen in the last 3 hours, I think the bears have more in them, short term.

It could be that I try not to get caught upon the dynamics of smaller scales.  For volume, I might look at the daily or the three day or the weekly, but i rarely am looking at shorter terms, except maybe to add them together.  Also, we can have ups and downs in volume for a few days, but really, we are not really going to be able to interpret that until we get to looking at a week or maybe using the three day candles.

Of course, maybe you can make some determinations on those smaller scales - but seems like a bit of voodoo science to me, especially the shorter the period that you are assessing and the more attempts at a blanket statement from such microanalysis.

[JayJuanGee]

btw is there any real possibility of both bitcoins going upwards? Like some kind of cooperation/competition without offenses flying over our heads.
Just asking, not a tech person
Maybe this hasn't to be bad at the end, for either "side"

Both Bitcoins?

There is one Bitcoin and one Altcon.

Yep. That's the situation right now. And they are fighting for dominance

Both have certain properties and it has not to be a death struggle. Or is it? That was my question. Or perhaps I should ask if we are Homo Sapiens Sapiens, who are ready for this changes. The revolution has to be decentralized

Edit: btw WTF happened on kraken chart on 26/8? glitchy

are you a fucking lunatic?  who pays you?  

You present disinformation points in order to act as if there is some kind of equivalency and one side is equally as correct as the other....

BULLSHIT!


Segwit2x was an attack on bitcoin, and then that failed from the bigblocker nutjobs (probably including you as a paid shill) because it brought segwit, then we got a renegade bcash hardfork upon 2 weeks notice, and that did not go very well.  

So these nutjobs are not going to give up, and they are going to continue with their planned attacks with segwit2x and without replay protection in order to intensify their attempt attacking....

So don't try to act like they are equal... it is merely people who do not like bitcoin attempting to undermine it, including yourself coming into this thread  with your newbie status to make nonsensical attempts at false equivalencies.

[JayJuanGee]

I hate to be a Debbie Downer but I do not like the risk/reward for btc right now. If we manage to break through $5000 I see a maximum of $5500 to $7000 before a major (meaning painful) correction. I am talking about $2500 to $2800, 50% correction or back to the weekly 20 MA. You know it will come, we just don't know when. I would rather wait for a huge discount to buy. I hope I am wrong, really, but I doubt it.

[https://bitcoinnewsmagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/screenshot-bitcoinwisdom.com-2017-09-03-20-17-42.png[/img]

Yeah, you are coming off as a Debbie Downer.

First, since when has bitcoin been limited to technical analysis

Second, I largely agree with you that there is a resistance point at $5k, and there is another resistance point in the $5500 to $7k arena, but so fucking what?  There is nothing new about that. 

If we get major upside than we are likely to have significant price corrections, and we really have not had any meaningful price correction since the one down to $890 in March... so yeah I am with you that a significant correction, such as 50% would not be out of the realm of reasonable.. and in the meantime, we can buy some bitcoin, and sell some bitcoin and hodl.. and still profit, no?  NO reason to be paralyzed by fear... we are bullish as fuck, even if we get a 50% correction.

On the other hand, you are calling the top as maximum of $7k, but what the fuck do you know?  I certainly do not know, except to know that nothing in bitcoinlandia is 100%, as you seem to be asserting with nonsensical attempts at technical analysis.  So maybe we largely agree on the range, but maybe you are just exaggerating in your expressed certitude...

Probably, I would not place odds to be much above 10% or perhaps 15% that BTC prices could break through $7k, and maybe you are placing those odds at less than 5% (I don't buy it that you would be placing such odds at 0%); however, if BTC prices do break through $7k, then wouldn't we be in the $8500 to $13k territory for the next resistance point?  So, yeah, maybe the odds are not high, but they are not zero, ,.. as you fud dudder, self described debbie downer asserts.   

[pitham1]

I hate to be a Debbie Downer but I do not like the risk/reward for btc right now. If we manage to break through $5000 I see a maximum of $5500 to $7000 before a major (meaning painful) correction. I am talking about $2500 to $2800, 50% correction or back to the weekly 20 MA. You know it will come, we just don't know when. I would rather wait for a huge discount to buy. I hope I am wrong, really, but I doubt it.

Cut

It still doesn't hurt to dip your hands into the cookie jar and buy some Bitcoin right now. It's never a good idea to put too much in at one point anyways, and if you only buy a little now and buy the rest later it can't hurt- I also expect we probably won't break $5000 this time around, and we will continue on a temporary downwards trend.

Most people are already all in - In terms of the maximum exposure they would like to take towards Bitcoin. But if it goes below $3000 again, I am sure they will tweak their asset allocation given the good opportunity they see.

[Wekkel]

My own experience is that trying to guess Bitcoin tops in these once-in-a-few-years rallies results in tears of missed gains. But the HODL-ers will be thankful.

[centralbanksequalsbombs]

I hate to be a Debbie Downer but I do not like the risk/reward for btc right now. If we manage to break through $5000 I see a maximum of $5500 to $7000 before a major (meaning painful) correction. I am talking about $2500 to $2800, 50% correction or back to the weekly 20 MA. You know it will come, we just don't know when. I would rather wait for a huge discount to buy. I hope I am wrong, really, but I doubt it.

Based off your news alert, I was about to sell a chunk of my bitcoins but then was confronted by THIS:

Sell my BTC for which of these?



What would outperform bitcoin?

Bitcoinnewsmagazine, you are hinting at US dollars outperforming? That's a very impressive ability to predict the bitcoin market, you must be one of the richest people alive. Hats off to you.


Over time, during times of fear and war just compare Bitcoin to other financial assets and compare real data.

Also, if war takes hold the waves of credit start to recede from traditional financial assets, but there is a CROSS-BORDER, UNFREEAZABLE asset of Bitcoin which is experiencing an INCREASING amount of net investment INTO bitcoin EVEN AT recent "HIGH" PRICES.

One of the drivers is that only some private investment funds, hedge funds, private partnerships, endowment funds are BEGINNING to dip tiny allocations into this new uncorrelated financial asset.

This year and next they will play catch up until Bitcoin (in some year long-time from now) normalizes to size of an invested financial asset with a market cap above $300B (current market cap at time of this writing is less than $80B).


If the market were to collapse (modern-day markets pegging S&P 500 US Stocks index as a worldwide primer) - where will the flight to safety be?

Quantfunds (Quantitative investment funds that rely on mathematical models for investments) are infamous at crunching through vast arrays of data across all asset types to use combine investments of less-correlated assets together to acheive great investment returns while still being defensive during down markets. And the outperformance of Bitcoin when other assets are down will not go unnoticed.

Info on The chart above:

The chart above shows since mid-June here were the performance of asset-classes when S&P 500 was down more than -0.2% in a day.

There were only 10 days since mid-June where daily drop of S&P exceeded -0.2%. The above compares how Bitcoin, Gold, Long Term US Treasury Bonds, US Commercial Real Estate (REIT), and Bullish US Dollar Index did on those same days.

The assets are represented by most established, regulated, liquid ETFs:
Gold  ticker: IAU - iShares Gold Trust
Long Term US Treasury Bonds ticker - TLH - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond
US Commercial Real Estate ticker - VNQ - Vanguard Real-Estate-Investment-Trusts ETF
Bullish USD index ticker - UUP - PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish

Where will the flight to safety be in terms of assets/investments?



There are already 3 large institutional investment vehicles for private investments, hedge funds, and quant-funds to get bitcoin exposure:
-XBT provider's bitcoin swedish nasdaq etf (priced in SEK currency) : bitcoinxb / bloomberg ticker: coinxbt [not real btc]
-Grayscale's bitcoin Over-the-counter markets fund : GBTC  [not real btc]
-Gemini's exchange's daily auctions of bitcoin buyers and sellers [real btc?]

This is outside of the many popular exchanges that exist for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies including p2p exchange localbitcoins. [real BTC]

[CoinCube]

Most people are already all in - In terms of the maximum exposure they would like to take towards Bitcoin. But if it goes below $3000 again, I am sure they will tweak their asset allocation given the good opportunity they see.

Most people here on this forum perhaps but that's not most people.
There is a flood of passive money just waiting to pour into BTC once it becomes easy enough.

Just look at the premium on the Bitcoin Investment Trust (GBTC) it was recently trading at premium of 101.6% higher than the actual market value of the bitcoin it holds. I think $4,500 will be considered cheap very soon dispite the massive recent gains as more options for the general public open up which is inevitable sooner or later.

I certainly won't be selling.

[explorer]

This year and next they will play catch up until Bitcoin (in some year long-time from now) normalizes to size of an invested financial asset with a market cap above $300B (current market cap at time of this writing is less than $80B).

I can't be the only one that suspects BTC will reach $300B market cap in 'some year' that will start in about 4 months...  Exponential growth is... Exponential.  It doesn't even have to double twice to achieve this.

[Denker]

Most people are already all in - In terms of the maximum exposure they would like to take towards Bitcoin. But if it goes below $3000 again, I am sure they will tweak their asset allocation given the good opportunity they see.

How do you know that? Can you measure it? I doubt that much people here or outside of this forum have already invested all of the money they can afford to invest.
I for instance know people who are waiting to get in "cheaper". And others can't invest due to regulations, mostly institutional investors. There is still lots of money sitting on the sideline and watching very closely for the right point to get in, whatever this may be.

[centralbanksequalsbombs]

This year and next they will play catch up until Bitcoin (in some year long-time from now) normalizes to size of an invested financial asset with a market cap above $300B (current market cap at time of this writing is less than $80B).

I can't be the only one that suspects BTC will reach $300B market cap in 'some year' that will start in about 4 months...  Exponential growth is... Exponential.  It doesn't even have to double twice to achieve this.

I'm applying lots of caution, with that said I estimate 18 to 48 months to hit $300B mkt cap for bitcoin. I anticipate that there will be no major wars.

[conspirosphere.tk]

Sell my BTC for which of these?

You should never go all in with anything. But if you do not already have a fraction of your portfolio loaded with PM you might better think again right now.


https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-technical


https://www.investing.com/commodities/silver-technical

[podyx]

Shouldn't go much lower than $4300

[NUFCrichard]

Sell my BTC for which of these?

You should never go all in with anything. But if you do not already have a fraction of your portfolio loaded with PM you might better think again right now.


https://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-technical


https://www.investing.com/commodities/silver-technical

Worthe remembering that Gold and Silver are real things that won't go as crazy as Bitcoin. If you want to buy and get profit, you won't see 25% moves in a week, like with Bitcoin.
You can see that as a positive or a negative depending!

We are $550 down in about 2 days, that is a big old move. We are almost back down to last weeks levels now!

[Lauda]

You should never go all in with anything. But if you do not already have a fraction of your portfolio loaded with PM you might better think again right now.

Which is bullshit advice from people who will never make it big. If you understand something better than 99.9% of the population, and it reasonably seems like an absurdly excellent investment then you go full in. If you had done this with BTC, you wouldn't be here sharing bullshit advice. Disclaimer: I am not responsible for people who can't asses what "reasonable" actually is and lose all their money investing in stocks or metals. 

Shouldn't go much lower than $4300

<gribble> Bitstamp | Total bids: 49190800 USD. Total asks: 2449 BTC. Ratio: 20084.79891 USD/BTC. | Data vintage: 0.0663 seconds

Forced dump.

[rjclarke2000]

In the 4300s. That's a little disappointing from practically being at 5000. I hope we can hold the 4000s

[Ludwig Von]

Is there a bank holiday in the US? I funded my Kraken account via Sepa (IBAN) to a intra EU bank account befor, on Friday and nothing shows in my Balance on Kraken ?