Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Odalv]

Yes what happens when Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt turns to facts?

That can always happen, but it can also become a self-fulfilling prophecy. When does being cautious turn into outright paranoia that feeds on itself and infects others? If you look for bad news you will always find it, if you look for positive news you will find plenty of that around as well. Most of us will be biased towards one or the other and try to think of things that reinforces our own position. In the end nobody has a definitive answer, but those who can think with a clear head and stay very flexible one way or the other usually have an edge. But they can be wrong as well.

There is only one bad news. => crack RIPEMD-160 => crack SHA-256 => crack ECDSA ... (I think/believe impossible) :-)  so until somebody is able to compute private key from your public bitcoin address, bitcoin will only rise.
 

The only way would be to generate billions of keys per second, and hope that one of them matches up with someone else. xD

It would still, with a billion keys per second, take a near eternity.

and what about a trillion keys per second?

Trillion is only 10^12  :-) year has only 3 * 10 ^7 seconds  => 10^19 / year  ...10^(35-19) ... only 10,000,000,000,000,000 years :-)  

Is that for colliding with someone else, or for finding a specific address? I'd imagine it would be easier to indiscriminately collide with another address that has bitcoins.

http://www.bitcointrading.com/img/bitcoinwallpaper1.jpg

[Abandon]

Yes what happens when Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt turns to facts?

That can always happen, but it can also become a self-fulfilling prophecy. When does being cautious turn into outright paranoia that feeds on itself and infects others? If you look for bad news you will always find it, if you look for positive news you will find plenty of that around as well. Most of us will be biased towards one or the other and try to think of things that reinforces our own position. In the end nobody has a definitive answer, but those who can think with a clear head and stay very flexible one way or the other usually have an edge. But they can be wrong as well.

There is only one bad news. => crack RIPEMD-160 => crack SHA-256 => crack ECDSA ... (I think/believe impossible) :-)  so until somebody is able to compute private key from your public bitcoin address, bitcoin will only rise.
 

The only way would be to generate billions of keys per second, and hope that one of them matches up with someone else. xD

It would still, with a billion keys per second, take a near eternity.

and what about a trillion keys per second?

Trillion is only 10^12  :-) year has only 3 * 10 ^7 seconds  => 10^19 / year  ...10^(35-19) ... only 10,000,000,000,000,000 years :-)  

Is that for colliding with someone else, or for finding a specific address? I'd imagine it would be easier to indiscriminately collide with another address that has bitcoins.

http://www.bitcointrading.com/img/bitcoinwallpaper1.jpg

Where is quantum processing in this?

If there was a trillion^100 addresses that all were active, that wouldn't be nearly as difficult to brute force crack at least one of them, would it?

[Odalv]

Yes what happens when Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt turns to facts?

That can always happen, but it can also become a self-fulfilling prophecy. When does being cautious turn into outright paranoia that feeds on itself and infects others? If you look for bad news you will always find it, if you look for positive news you will find plenty of that around as well. Most of us will be biased towards one or the other and try to think of things that reinforces our own position. In the end nobody has a definitive answer, but those who can think with a clear head and stay very flexible one way or the other usually have an edge. But they can be wrong as well.

There is only one bad news. => crack RIPEMD-160 => crack SHA-256 => crack ECDSA ... (I think/believe impossible) :-)  so until somebody is able to compute private key from your public bitcoin address, bitcoin will only rise.
 

The only way would be to generate billions of keys per second, and hope that one of them matches up with someone else. xD

It would still, with a billion keys per second, take a near eternity.

and what about a trillion keys per second?

Trillion is only 10^12  :-) year has only 3 * 10 ^7 seconds  => 10^19 / year  ...10^(35-19) ... only 10,000,000,000,000,000 years :-)  

Is that for colliding with someone else, or for finding a specific address? I'd imagine it would be easier to indiscriminately collide with another address that has bitcoins.

http://www.bitcointrading.com/img/bitcoinwallpaper1.jpg

Where is quantum processing in this?

If there was a trillion^trillion addresses that all were active, that wouldn't be nearly as difficult to brute force crack, would they?

QC can be used(theoretically) crack ECDSA (compute private key from public), but QC cannot compute public key from  RIPEMD-160, SHA-256

[ElectricMucus]

I mean then the things that are causing the FUD, turns to facts

Well in case of the current situation there is a considerable amount of it.

People fear that the DHS seizing the mtgox dwolla account wasn't the last of it.
Satoshi dice has blocked the US out of uncertainty.
There is considerable doubt that the mtgox/coinlab deal gonna work out.

That is a fact, look around the related threads. And it is different that somebody coming along writing something like: "Bitcoin is unsafe because everybody can steal the coins, operating systems are unsafe and so is Bitcoin.". The former are concrete events with their respectable outcome. The latter is the infamous "spreading of FUD."
There are two kinds of FUD, the one based on agenda/misinterpretation and the other one based on factual events.

[granolageek]

See, you are purposefully missing the point.

Hint: They don't really look like isolated incidents to me.

They are not isolated incidents.

They are proof that Bitcoin has hit the radar.

At this point everything that is legally sketchy has been shut down.

The banks are no longer pretending that they are willing to do business with anything that threatens their oligopoly. (Unless it pays well enough.)

The record labels lost. But artists are actually better off.

The US government tried to stop PGP. It lost.

This time it's the banks that own the governments. They can shut down the internet, or they can lose. And if they shut down the internet, they will be explaining to Boeing and Airbus, Exxon and Total. The banksters have not yet won the arms race.

[Its About Sharing]

See, you are purposefully missing the point.

Hint: They don't really look like isolated incidents to me.

They are not isolated incidents.

They are proof that Bitcoin has hit the radar.

At this point everything that is legally sketchy has been shut down.

The banks are no longer pretending that they are willing to do business with anything that threatens their oligopoly. (Unless it pays well enough.)

The record labels lost. But artists are actually better off.

The US government tried to stop PGP. It lost.

This time it's the banks that own the governments. They can shut down the internet, or they can lose. And if they shut down the internet, they will be explaining to Boeing and Airbus, Exxon and Total. The banksters have not yet won the arms race.

You are making a mole hill into a mountain. What happened with Dwolla/MtGox was NOTHING. Look deeply into it. It is nothing. It is a blessing in disguise if you think even a bit about it.

I'm not saying we come out on top, for as you said, perhaps the internet get shut down. But, I trust in Universe...

[fitty]

I mean then the things that are causing the FUD, turns to facts

Well in case of the current situation there is a considerable amount of it.

People fear that the DHS seizing the mtgox dwolla account wasn't the last of it.
Satoshi dice has blocked the US out of uncertainty.
There is considerable doubt that the mtgox/coinlab deal gonna work out.

That is a fact, look around the related threads. And it is different that somebody coming along writing something like: "Bitcoin is unsafe because everybody can steal the coins, operating systems are unsafe and so is Bitcoin.". The former are concrete events with their respectable outcome. The latter is the infamous "spreading of FUD."
There are two kinds of FUD, the one based on agenda/misinterpretation and the other one based on factual events.

US Govt doesn't take something down piecemeal. Review Kim Dotcom and poker to see how they work. Just taking the Dwolla account lets MtGox change domains (off .com), move servers, move money (their accounts in Japan likely have much much much more money). DHS/DOJ don't play nice and give people "warning shots". MtGox being incompetent isn't news. They shouldn't have let people use Dwolla. The reason they were probably interested in the Coinlab deal was because they knew they weren't legal. Coinlab probably knew his and probably reported them. Again, MtGox being incompetent isn't news. It would be news if they weren't.  
 
Blocking US ips was a smart move by SatoshiDice. It's not worth the legal risk. Americans can still gamble, they can find out how, the website was garbage anyway.

MtGox/Coinlab lawsuit will likely drag on for years, has very little to do with the market and/or Bitcoin.

CampBX uses Dwolla. They're based in the USA. DHS could shut down their entire operation. But they're still up, they're still letting people use Dwolla to get Bitcoins. So clearly it's not an attack on Bitcoins. It's merely MtGox getting caught doing something they shouldnt.

Med/Long term it was good news. People leaving MtGox, moving to other exchanges. We need more bad news for MtGox, so more people will move.

[notme]

Look deeply into it. It is nothing.

Looking deeply into nothingness is not advisable.

[ElectricMucus]

Again, MtGox being incompetent isn't news. It would be news if they weren't.  

Every bit increases the known magnitude of incompetence though. God knows how incompetent they really are, at least they managed to stay in business if that means anything.

Blocking US ips was a smart move by SatoshiDice. It's not worth the legal risk. Americans can still gamble, they can find out how, the website was garbage anyway.

This has wider percussions than satoshidice though if they are affected so is the entirety of Bitcoin gambling sites operating on clearnet.

MtGox/Coinlab lawsuit will likely drag on for years, has very little to do with the market and/or Bitcoin.

Maybe, the sum is quite substantial and I think it can threaten mtgox as a business, perhaps bankruptcy? We don't yet know how the market would be without gox. I'd say it's a considerable risk.

Med/Long term it was good news. People leaving MtGox, moving to other exchanges. We need more bad news for MtGox, so more people will move.

Yes, I agree, at least in terms of what's good for the ecosystem. I don't really have an idea what prices would do when it's gone.

[ChartBuddy]

[ElectricMucus]

Blocking US ips was a smart move by SatoshiDice. It's not worth the legal risk. Americans can still gamble, they can find out how, the website was garbage anyway.

This has wider percussions than satoshidice though if they are affected so is the entirety of Bitcoin gambling sites operating on clearnet.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression is that this is a small issue (from the censorship perspective). You can just proxy/VPN your way to the site correct? And of course then you are good to go, the bitcoin network gives no fucks about who sends coins to who. Unlike with the online poker situation in previous years where the didn't have bitcoin to get around the funding issues and blocking of payment processors, AFAIK.

Isn't that how conservative gambling sites operate?
Well would still be a legal gray area though. Not that it matters much.

[Streets 2.0]

Again, MtGox being incompetent isn't news. It would be news if they weren't.  

Every bit increases the known magnitude of incompetence though. God knows how incompetent they really are, at least they managed to stay in business if that means anything.

Blocking US ips was a smart move by SatoshiDice. It's not worth the legal risk. Americans can still gamble, they can find out how, the website was garbage anyway.

This has wider percussions than satoshidice though if they are affected so is the entirety of Bitcoin gambling sites operating on clearnet.

MtGox/Coinlab lawsuit will likely drag on for years, has very little to do with the market and/or Bitcoin.

Maybe, the sum is quite substantial and I think it can threaten mtgox as a business, perhaps bankruptcy? We don't yet know how the market would be without gox. I'd say it's a considerable risk.

Med/Long term it was good news. People leaving MtGox, moving to other exchanges. We need more bad news for MtGox, so more people will move.

Yes, I agree, at least in terms of what's good for the ecosystem. I don't really have an idea what prices would do when it's gone.

Bitstamp, Coinbase, CampBX and Bitinstant are really trying to pick up the ball of the available volume as Americans begin to shift off of Gox.  One or two of the others can probably pick up the slack.  Bitinstant received a decent bump in funding, 1.5m USD from the Winklevii twins, Coinbase received a 5m USD funding on Tuesday http://blogs.wsj.com/venturecapital/2013/05/07/coinbase-nabs-5m-in-biggest-funding-for-bitcoin-startup/.  The position is there for one of them to fill in.

[ChartBuddy]

[Odalv]

Blocking US ips was a smart move by SatoshiDice. It's not worth the legal risk. Americans can still gamble, they can find out how, the website was garbage anyway.

This has wider percussions than satoshidice though if they are affected so is the entirety of Bitcoin gambling sites operating on clearnet.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression is that this is a small issue (from the censorship perspective). You can just proxy/VPN your way to the site correct? And of course then you are good to go, the bitcoin network gives no fucks about who sends coins to who. Unlike with the online poker situation in previous years where the didn't have bitcoin to get around the funding issues and blocking of payment processors, AFAIK.

Isn't that how conservative gambling sites operate?
Well would still be a legal gray area though. Not that it matters much.

Bitcoin is p2p (protocol does not log your IP). If satoshidice says "we are blocking US IP" then if you understand what is p2p you will realize "it is impossible" but if you do not understand what is p2p and Bitcoin then you can "think" they did it :-)

[Odalv]

Bitcoin is p2p (protocol does not log your IP). If satoshidice says "we are blocking US IP" then if you understand what is p2p you will realize "it is impossible" but if you do not understand what is p2p and Bitcoin then you can "think" they did it :-)

... and YES they did it :-)

[ElectricMucus]

Bitcoin is p2p (protocol does not log your IP). If satoshidice says "we are blocking US IP" then if you understand what is p2p you will realize "it is impossible" but if you do not understand what is p2p and Bitcoin then you can "think" they did it :-)

... and YES they did it :-)

Well, since this is mainly about not being dragged in court it is well enough within a reasonable effort.

[fitty]

Every bit increases the known magnitude of incompetence though. God knows how incompetent they really are, at least they managed to stay in business if that means anything.

This is what I think happened. The new FinCEN rules came out. It meant if you exchange virtual currency, you better be registered as a MSB with FinCEN. MtGox didn't want to do that, so they were working a deal to offload all their US accounts to CoinLab. Thus solving the problem. Turns out they back out of the deal, keep using Dwolla to handle US accounts, and end up getting caught. I have no doubt Coinlab dropped a friendly "tip" to DHS about MtGox. This is probably why they only went after their Dwolla, they failed to register as a MSB. Typical Gox failure, instead of properly try to solve the problem, they tried to work a deal, backed out, it blew up in their face. In terms of the Bitcoin market it's fairly minor. It's a boost to other exchanges, people will get registered, people will be legit, it's good for everyone overall.

This has wider percussions than satoshidice though if they are affected so is the entirety of Bitcoin gambling sites operating on clearnet.

You shouldn't let Americans gamble with a virtual currency on your site. Does everyone forget what happened with poker? All gambling sites on the internet should ban US IPs. It's not worth the trouble. For satoshidice you can still bet, still get paid, Bitcoin doesn't know your IP. I'm sure someone will create a site that scans the blockchain so you can view "recent bets". That's about the only thing useful on the site. People will post the addresses to place bets. People thinking that it would always be legal for Americans to bet Bitcoins online were being foolish. People getting legal, setting up the site properly, protecting themselves from future legal matters, that's all good. Like most poker sites online, block americans, problem solved. There's a reason WebMoney blocks Americans. It's not worth the trouble.

Maybe, the sum is quite substantial and I think it can threaten mtgox as a business, perhaps bankruptcy? We don't yet know how the market would be without gox. I'd say it's a considerable risk.

In those types of lawsuits, claiming damages it's usually a ridiculous amount. I doubt MtGox backing out cost them much more then maybe a million or two. This stuff usually gets resolved way before a case, I'm sure they'll settle out of court. Otherwise the lawyers end up the only ones making money. Also even if they lost, collecting the money is another matter. MtGox has a number of lawyers, I don't think this puts their business at risk. At least not for years. I'm sure a lawyer who knows more then I can comment on these types of contract disputes. From what I know, CoinLab ever seeing 75m is extremely unlikely. They'd have to win, and a judge agree, MtGox appeal, MtGox lose appeal, and MtGox pay. That's a 5-8 year process.

[fitty]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but my impression is that this is a small issue (from the censorship perspective). You can just proxy/VPN your way to the site correct? And of course then you are good to go, as the bitcoin network gives no fucks about who sends coins to who. Unlike with the online poker situation in previous years where they didn't have bitcoin to get around the funding issues and blocking of payment processors.

Correct. It's much easier to get around the issue with Bitcoins. Get a vpn, get a proxy, and you can access the site. You can use Bitcoins (no ip) and you're good to go.

If the sites block US IPs, they're protected from the US Govt. US players can easily get around it, using Bitcoins it's extremely hard (sometimes impossible) to track, and the US Govt can't do shit.

Bitcoin gambling sites blocking US IPs is a good move, long overdue. The more Bitcoin related sites that get and stay legal the better.

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

Good times for buyers at Bitstamp. Way too many coins in there for the fiat in the order book.