Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

Both fiat and BTC are saying "bye bye" to Gox.

[1715202438]

1715202438

[icekiss]

As much as I like the fact we broke through 125, I am concerned about the trading volume (or lack thereof) lately. The current price levels can hardly be considered meaningful when a single large order could wipe out days-worth of gains (or losses).

From the past few months we know for a fact there are huge players out there who just aren't trading now, they just sit on the sidelines and they're waiting for something. If they decide to get back in, it may not be pretty

That is always true, even at much higher volumes. The lower volume is because mt.gox is losing its dominance and fiat from mt.gox takes a long time to appear on other exchanges, so they can't take up the slack yet.

I think it is a very encouraging sign that we are apparently managing the shift in exchange importance without any major crashes. After all, BTC move much faster, and could easily crash the price to lower levels. Luckily the mt.gox price still has too much credibility for that. 

[blackreplica]

Both fiat and BTC are saying "bye bye" to Gox.

I'm not sure I infer that from the charts. Ask orders going down yes, bids holding steady yes, and price steadily increasing (with highest price amongst all exchanges) implies to me that a rational trader would be keeping BTC on Gox at the very least. With bid sums staying where they are I don't think its conclusive to say fiat is leaving either

[Rockford]

OK summary time:

-Asks are dropping
-Bitstamp Orderbook is looking better every hour
-We are still at 125, though on low volume, nothing pulled it back this time
-Low Volume german exchange bitcoin.de: availaible Coins steadily decreasing
-Recent Good news not priced in yet ( i think)
-No Apocalypse regarding the dwolla issue
-Another spike in Chinas interest this week (yeah i wouldn't call it a hype either, but you get the idea)

Bullish to me, see you at the top.

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

We just broke the highest price of the last 7 days.

It will be interesting to see what happens at Bitstamp, with those HUGE ask walls.

[Rampion]

Both fiat and BTC are saying "bye bye" to Gox.

I'm not sure I infer that from the charts. Ask orders going down yes, bids holding steady yes, and price steadily increasing (with highest price amongst all exchanges) implies to me that a rational trader would be keeping BTC on Gox at the very least. With bid sums staying where they are I don't think its conclusive to say fiat is leaving either

Well, I can guarantee you that I'm leaving both my coins and fiat at Gox atm, even if i have to admit that I reduced my trading position by 80% after the Dwolla situation. I was going to do that in any case, as I stated a lot of times I do not like to sell coins, only to buy them after/during dips and crashes.

[samson]

Is everyone assuming that these other low volume unproven exchanges will function perfectly when under very heavy load, DDOS attacks, order book spam, withdrawal transaction spam, etc, etc ?

If so then I'm afraid people are going to be sorely disappointed when the same old problems that MtGox experienced happen all over again with each new exchange that becomes popular.

As far as I'm concerned the only platform that's been real world load tested so far is MtGox.

[Rampion]

-Bitstamp Orderbook is looking better every hour

Unfortunately I do not see that. Bid sum at Bitstamp was $955k a few days ago. Now its $1.05M. That's a tiny improvement. And it is still a joke compared with the $20M sitting on Gox's order book.

[icekiss]

bitstamp: everything short of the 120.0BTC wall just got bought up (wall is 350BTC).

Yes, there are still huge ask walls on bitstamp, but they got reduced by something like 2000BTC in the last 24hours. So there is definitely a lot of fiat pouring in. It just isn't sitting in the order book (which would be extremely stupid anyway, looking as how it can be used to buy cheap coins instead   ).

And I am watching bitstamp on bitcoinity: those walls aren't being retracted - they really are being bought!

And "tiny" is the wrong adjective at least for bitstamp: It is handling around 25% of all BTC trading volume by now.

[Rampion]

bitstamp: everything short of the 120.0BTC wall just got bought up (wall is 350BTC).

Yes, there are still huge ask walls on bitstamp, but they got reduced by something like 2000BTC in the last 24hours. So there is definitely a lot of fiat pouring in. It just isn't sitting in the order book (which would be extremely stupid anyway, looking as how it can be used to buy cheap coins instead   ).

And "tiny" is the wrong adjective at least for bitstamp: It is handling around 25% of all BTC trading volume by now.

I'm not speaking about relative volume, I'm speaking about the bid sum. On gox you still have x20 the amount of fiat compared to Bitstamp, which is expected - it's much slower to move fiat than coins.

[icekiss]

I'm not speaking about relative volume, I'm speaking about the bid sum. On gox you still have x20 the amount of fiat compared to Bitstamp, which is expected - it's much slower to move fiat than coins.

Right. Which is what I am saying. 

[Miz4r]

-Bitstamp Orderbook is looking better every hour

Unfortunately I do not see that. Bid sum at Bitstamp was $955k a few days ago. Now its $1.05M. That's a tiny improvement. And it is still a joke compared with the $20M sitting on Gox's order book.

Total bid sum may not have increased as much, but lots of fiat was used to eat into the huge ask wall. Also bid sum from $100+ has increased by about 50% the past couple of days.

[Rockford]

-Bitstamp Orderbook is looking better every hour

Unfortunately I do not see that. Bid sum at Bitstamp was $955k a few days ago. Now its $1.05M. That's a tiny improvement. And it is still a joke compared with the $20M sitting on Gox's order book.

Yes, you are right.
I was thinking of the bids that were put up recently, opposing the huge asks we have there, effectively weakening the selling pressure a bit.

Unfortunately I dont have any recent data and I might be proven wrong.

Still

I think a subtle rise to 130 is imminent. Expect it to happen in the next 2 hours.
I am also curious about how the spread between the exchanges will play a role in the next movements.
I think its too early to state that Bitstamp might take over, Gox still has credibility and only time will show if people are eager to test another exchange for its limits.

Disclaimer: I have no fiat on the exchanges, I made a 20 BTC purchase @ 87€ a couple of days ago for spending within the next weeks, so of course a steady rise would be appreciated

[kiko]

-Bitstamp Orderbook is looking better every hour

Unfortunately I do not see that. Bid sum at Bitstamp was $955k a few days ago. Now its $1.05M. That's a tiny improvement. And it is still a joke compared with the $20M sitting on Gox's order book.

Total bid sum may not have increased as much, but lots of fiat was used to eat into the huge ask wall. Also bid sum from $100+ has increased by about 50% the past couple of days.

Agreed, moonshot bids for $20 coins don't really count. I keep meaning to create an index that divides each bid/ask by the % distance from the current MMR. I think it would be much more insightful. I just can't square the maths to adjust for the fact that bids only differ by 100% but asks can be many 1000% higher. Anyone know how to properly adjust for that?

[Rampion]

With such a low volume, we should go well above $130 to welcome a new uptrend. Let's see how strong is the bull's hope.

[icekiss]

120.0BTC ask wall on bitstamp bought up.

With such a low volume, we should go well above $130 to welcome a new uptrend. Let's see how strong is the bull's hope.

I think since we broke through the mt.gox wall at 124.5 (tonight around 4:00 UTC) we can call this an upward trend instead of just jitter.  

EDIT: 126.0BTC wall on mt.gox getting eaten fast (400BTC eaten so far)!

[Rampion]

Yep, $126 wall being chewed ATM.

[Rampion]

Wall at $126?

.....and it's gone

[Rampion]

The last few days the price moved up when volume increased, went down when it decreased.

That's a good sign for the bulls. Buyers may get impatient.