Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Its About Sharing]

We're getting major lag spikes. Haven't seen these in a while

On a more serious note...can anyone here speculate as to what has driven demand these past few hours? The only significant news in that window was the Nikkei crash.

Are people really seeing bitcoin as a safe haven? Or is something else at play?

The bolded is like saying "Hey, why is everybody running away, he only fired 10 shots and is almost out?"  

Do you realize what a 7% drop in Japans stock market is like, right after all the Quantitative Criticism they have received lately? Further, the European markets were down 2%, not sure about now.
The Plunge Protection Team (aka Federal Reserve) is at work on the American markets I'm sure.

Global confidence is low, and a few more drops like the above can set off a catastrophe. Just think of what losing 7% of value must be like to some people...

IAS

[1714938020]

1714938020

[Kazu]

The issue is that they are printing a ton of money and the value in the money dropped 7%. Now, notice that it has gone up a sizable amount previously this year, but still.

When you take into account that there is not-yet-fully-realized inflation in the money supply, that loss ends up looking a lot bigger.

[Zangelbert Bingledack]

Inflation would be priced in, since the Nikkei is denominated in yen. It would just make the index go higher. Also, a 7% drop in the entire index is huge. That means many stocks fell much further.

[rb1205]

And isn't it crazy that the ticker for the last 2 1/2 hours on bitstamp looks like a moving average? There aren't any downticks at all.  

Reload the page... Bitcoinity fails bad at updating the graph live.

[BitcoinAshley]

Relax about China; the Chinese have been figuring out how to get around the CCP's censorship for years. Sure, it means an adoption boom is unlikely but we'll still see some support from China. Maybe those interested will just move to OTC.

China attempting to block bitcoin traffic = good news for bitcoin(they legitimize it by banning it)

Nikkei crashing 7% = good news for bitcoin (if you have been following Japan recently you'll know why)

Most of the "bad news" is really good news. Heck, the Gox lawsuit and Dwolla seizure was good news, and people moving away from Gox is good news. Finally folks are starting to realize that we live in bizarro-world where everything is the opposite of what it seems.....

[Its About Sharing]

Agreed, moonshot bids for $20 coins don't really count. I keep meaning to create an index that divides each bid/ask by the % distance from the current MMR. I think it would be much more insightful. I just can't square the maths to adjust for the fact that bids only differ by 100% but asks can be many 1000% higher. Anyone know how to properly adjust for that?

Simple, just base it on the logarithm of the price.

This sounds really really interesting. Who is going to give us easy online access first? 

[Kazu]

Inflation would be priced in, since the Nikkei is denominated in yen. It would just make the index go higher. Also, a 7% drop in the entire index is huge. That means many stocks fell much further.

Exactly. If there is, say, 4% inflation, then the 7% drop is actually a 11% drop in actual value. (Clearly there wasn't 4% inflation today, I was just using it to illustrate a point).

[kiko]

Agreed, moonshot bids for $20 coins don't really count. I keep meaning to create an index that divides each bid/ask by the % distance from the current MMR. I think it would be much more insightful. I just can't square the maths to adjust for the fact that bids only differ by 100% but asks can be many 1000% higher. Anyone know how to properly adjust for that?

Simple, just base it on the logarithm of the price.

Thanks, but I think I've got it now. It's simpler than that.

One re-bases the order book so MMR is 1. lets call it $125. A $100 dollar bid at $10 dollars gets weighted by 0.08. An equally weighted ask of $100 would be priced at $1562 (the price at which current MMR represents only 8%.)

So who do I need to beg for historical daily snapshots of the full depth API?

[Its About Sharing]

I wouldn't consider bitcoin as a "safe" heaven, but the alternatives have turned sour in the last few days/months...

Gold and silver are down
stocks just took a beating (2008 in the making ?)
fiat is being constantly inflated
commodities are up but for investing

so probably a lot of investors are getting out of the stock market at the moment and while they won't go all in we may see some now money testing the waters over the next few weeks.

Well, we know at least the security part of BTC is safe. The unsafe parts lie at the users level and of course in a bigger way at the government level.

Regarding that last point, look at what is happening to currencies all over the world. Essentially we have "managed" hyperinflation! Confidence is all that is keeping the system up. If a few more
stock market crashes happen like in Japan today, this ship can topple and that lack of confidence would just open up the flood gates to Bitcoin and other stores of value (see Cyprus - I spelled it right this time, please note). Now, in that way, what do you have to lose? (A government closing it down? A price crash? ) You need some store of wealth. Gold and Silver work but the banks and/or hedge funds have been naked short selling them and you can be sure that will continue as they do not want people to lose confidence in the Dollar, Euro, etc.
But people are still buying them up. So, safe to me is a relative thing. The whole reason why BTC is here right now.

When the stock markets start crashing the currencies will be right behind them (maybe not in that order) and then you will see a disconnect between dollars/Euros/etc. and gold/silver/btc. You will want to be holding something in your control, not a governments or states or military's.

[Its About Sharing]

Relax about China; the Chinese have been figuring out how to get around the CCP's censorship for years. Sure, it means an adoption boom is unlikely but we'll still see some support from China. Maybe those interested will just move to OTC.

China attempting to block bitcoin traffic = good news for bitcoin(they legitimize it by banning it)

Nikkei crashing 7% = good news for bitcoin (if you have been following Japan recently you'll know why)

Most of the "bad news" is really good news. Heck, the Gox lawsuit and Dwolla seizure was good news, and people moving away from Gox is good news. Finally folks are starting to realize that we live in bizarro-world where everything is the opposite of what it seems.....

If BTC is banned in China that is terrible new, no two ways around that. We want to be able to use BTC for purchases and stuff. It will be underground there but the point is to have a new global money system, maybe not "the" system.

Nikkei crashing I agree is good news for BTC and for those who don't agree with just printing money. It is stealing from savers.

The Gox lawsuit was great as it got people on their toes and started a diversification that was needed. Further this is opening up opportunities for other exchanges.

[wachtwoord]

As this is our own FUD-spreading thread, let me quote you the email that the Blockchain.info operator got from Twilio, regarding a possible action against Bitcoin in China:

Hi Ben,

We got further information from our carrier confirming that business such as bitcoin is not a proper financial tool in China and the Authority may treat bitcoin as an illegal business. Unfortunately the China Telecom Authority has requested that all bit-coin traffic to China be blocked.

As the provider of the phone number, Twilio is responsible for assuring the carriers that no more traffic related to bitcoin will be sent to China. Therefore, I have removed your international SMS permission to China. Please do not turn this on or try sending SMS messages to mobile numbers in China. Doing so will very likely lead to immediate account suspension.

Again I'm sorry for the convenience. Please let me know if you have any additional questions.
Thanks,
Twilio Customer Support

Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40264.msg2243603#msg2243603

Haha the first government that starts fighting. I say: Bring it!

[Coinseeker]

1000BTC buy wall @ 120 just appeared on Bitstamp.  

[Rampion]

1000BTC buy wall @ 120 just appeared on Bitstamp.  

Yeah, a tiny $120k wall looks like a super wall at Bitstamp

Do you remember our good old Wallzilla, with his $2M wall, pumping the price up before his dump?

Just to give some context, $2M is exactly x2 the total amount of fiat sitting on Bitstamp's order book.

Imagine how that wall would look on Bitstamp

[Miz4r]

Well the ask wall on bitstamp doesn't look so scary anymore now.

[mb300sd]

I know exactly why it went up... Last night I said f*** it and sold at 124.xx, so of course it rises to 126 today...

[Coinseeker]

1000BTC buy wall @ 120 just appeared on Bitstamp.  

Yeah, a tiny $120k wall looks like a super wall at Bitstamp

Do you remember our good old Wallzilla, with his $2M wall, pumping the price up before his dump?

Just to give some context, $2M is exactly x2 the total amount of fiat sitting on Bitstamp's order book.

Imagine how that wall would look on Bitstamp

A speed bump.    Kidding of course.

[kiko]

As this is our own FUD-spreading thread, let me quote you the email that the Blockchain.info operator got from Twilio, regarding a possible action against Bitcoin in China:

Hi Ben,

We got further information from our carrier confirming that business such as bitcoin is not a proper financial tool in China and the Authority may treat bitcoin as an illegal business. Unfortunately the China Telecom Authority has requested that all bit-coin traffic to China be blocked.

As the provider of the phone number, Twilio is responsible for assuring the carriers that no more traffic related to bitcoin will be sent to China. Therefore, I have removed your international SMS permission to China. Please do not turn this on or try sending SMS messages to mobile numbers in China. Doing so will very likely lead to immediate account suspension.

Again I'm sorry for the convenience. Please let me know if you have any additional questions.
Thanks,
Twilio Customer Support

Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40264.msg2243603#msg2243603

That's pretty big news. I don't like the sound of it one bit. The media could dine out on that.

[Rampion]

Bitstamp's $100k bid wall is not fake at all. Being chewed ATM.

It's funny to see such a small wall looking so relatively big and menacing. Good news guys, at Bitstamp we can all be big time manipulators

[TheKoziTwo]

As this is our own FUD-spreading thread, let me quote you the email that the Blockchain.info operator got from Twilio, regarding a possible action against Bitcoin in China:

Hi Ben,

We got further information from our carrier confirming that business such as bitcoin is not a proper financial tool in China and the Authority may treat bitcoin as an illegal business. Unfortunately the China Telecom Authority has requested that all bit-coin traffic to China be blocked.

As the provider of the phone number, Twilio is responsible for assuring the carriers that no more traffic related to bitcoin will be sent to China. Therefore, I have removed your international SMS permission to China. Please do not turn this on or try sending SMS messages to mobile numbers in China. Doing so will very likely lead to immediate account suspension.

Again I'm sorry for the convenience. Please let me know if you have any additional questions.
Thanks,
Twilio Customer Support

Source: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=40264.msg2243603#msg2243603

That's pretty big news. I don't like the sound of it one bit. The media could dine out on that.

Oh, they have been going on and on for a while already, I'm not too worried: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7GFfJVo_KY

[adamstgBit]

 

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