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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21328934 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (104 posts by 20 users deleted.)
Quantum_Negatum
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June 02, 2013, 12:07:54 AM
 #12361

Look in the mirror, who is wishful thinking now? I'm not really bullish nor bearish on the short term, it depends on how this whole regulation issue gets resolved. If it gets resolved in a good way that fully legitimizes the bitcoin exchange then yes I'm very bullish. I do feel that we're going to move up a little after the current period of consolidation, but it will be a relatively small and hesitant move as long as there's no resolution to these issues, and it could just as easily reverse again the week after. And it's not just that you have to get verified now to trade or that there are no fast, cheap and easy ways to move money in and out like with Dwolla. That's annoying ofcourse, but the main thing is that Gox apparently does not have its act together and trust in the exchange is dwindling. If you can't see that this all would cause a significant loss in volume then you're just blind.

I do understand how it could cause a drop in volume, but not to current levels. There are other factors in play that have a greater impact on the price and volume, imo.
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June 02, 2013, 12:17:18 AM
 #12362

i got the feeling a guy is slowly dumping dont you think?
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June 02, 2013, 12:50:05 AM
 #12363

Yes, a lot of weird people are buying now. You didn't sell? I did, and I'm from Slovenia. I didn't know that even more screwed up countries exist. Where are you from (some part of Balkan I guess or America)?

bitcodo, Is there widespread recognition of Bitcoin in Slovenia? Are people considering it a safety net in case a Cyprus-like bail-in situation happens to Slovenian banks?
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June 02, 2013, 12:58:18 AM
 #12364

not even one person wants a piece of that wall  Huh i think i sold too early.... oh well, i'm confident if i wait long enough i'll buy back lower...



fair price discovery is fair. BTC
  adam says buy monday night, the latest! ; )
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June 02, 2013, 01:02:43 AM
 #12365

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June 02, 2013, 01:20:00 AM
Last edit: June 02, 2013, 04:05:20 AM by hlynur
 #12366

Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that:

That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes.

Wishful thinking, bull.

A more likely scenario is that speculators consider the price too high (potential reward greatly outweighed by risk at the moment), stubborn miners in a more competitive environment are holding positions, stubborn sellers are not willing to go lower than their entry point and there is a much reduced flow of money into Gox for numerous reasons, including potential new investors sitting on the sidelines viewing a stagnant price and considering the likely weaker returns. Doubful that the regulations are primarily responsible for widespread panic or reluctance to buy in. It is true that the regulations make it more difficult to get money into Gox, but generally only for the criminal-minded. If you have nothing to hide, it is still easy to transfer money, for example via wire.

I would entertain the possibility that recent regulations have scared away a small minority of criminals who were using bitcoin for money laundering. If this minority was responsible for most of the previous volume and are now absent, then I'd bet on a long, drawn-out downturn.
Smiley thread getting quiet again so i add my two cents:

I think money laundering is still very easy despite coming regulations and with everything around bitcoin adapting/growing more and more I can't see any long downturn (It's like to foresee a long downturn because silkroad is put down for some months). Governments must figure out a way to integrate digital currencies into their financial and lawsystem.
As always that takes quite some time and even then they won't get a complete hold of it. (I mean they still haven't completely figured that prevention of launderying out with fiat how will they succeed doing that with btc???)
Imo the low volume is because we're still in the situation with an oversold market. Too many bears have sold around 120$ in the last weeks and can't believe it's still not going down despite FR news and they don't want to buy in at loss.
Low volumes would logically just put marketaction away from daytrading into another timezone with speculators selling/buying and holding fiat/btc in longer timespans until next big swings they can hop onto.
so everything went to slow-motion.
I awaited bigger selloff around 135$ some days ago (which came) but it didn't push all the way down. So with wallzilla in mind i would say we could scratch 140$ soon and settle between 130-140$ next week with some up and downswings.
Don't know what happens if wallzilla is away again but there wasn't much movement before it appeared so I really can't imagine going under 120$ for next week (perhaps a little nibbling as we haven't tested it before.
You never know...one little news flick and shorttime panicmode is on again.

So I'm no expert but watching the progress of may altogether things look quite good. Everything began with big dump, followed by small dumping and no serious panicsells with FR news, we now finished that month with more than 30% plus since dobledigitdisaster and haven't returned there once.
I'm longterm bull so I always look at longer timespans...
.....only thing I just don't trust is that wall (it feels securing and frightening at the same time Smiley).

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June 02, 2013, 02:02:48 AM
 #12367

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June 02, 2013, 02:13:15 AM
 #12368

not even one person wants a piece of that wall  Huh i think i sold too early.... oh well, i'm confident if i wait long enough i'll buy back lower...



fair price discovery is fair. BTC
  adam says buy monday night, the latest! ; )

I remember you falling into a similar situation when we crossed $15 I believe?  Did you ever buy back?
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June 02, 2013, 02:24:46 AM
 #12369

Yes, a lot of weird people are buying now. You didn't sell? I did, and I'm from Slovenia. I didn't know that even more screwed up countries exist. Where are you from (some part of Balkan I guess or America)?

bitcodo, Is there widespread recognition of Bitcoin in Slovenia? Are people considering it a safety net in case a Cyprus-like bail-in situation happens to Slovenian banks?

from what i read on european news i have the impression that people in slovenia will have more time to safe their money from bail-ins than in cyprus (which they made an example of and where the bail-in came really fast)
It looks like european commission is playing on time so we'll see if people there prefer other options over btc.
One thing to mention in this case is definitively that bitstamp bank is Unicredit banka Slovenija (slovenian branch from italian UniCredit).
(perhaps most of you know this - i didn't because I don't use bitstamp, just gox and some domestic ones)
that could get interesting in a possible bail-in situation
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June 02, 2013, 02:25:46 AM
 #12370

Someone is running a bot on BitStamp that buys exactly 1 BTC at the lowest ask price every minute. (If there is 1 BTC available, otherwise it buys whatever is there.)

Costs about $7700 to run that bot for an hour, let's see how much ammo it's got. Grin
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June 02, 2013, 03:02:55 AM
 #12371

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June 02, 2013, 03:03:16 AM
 #12372

not even one person wants a piece of that wall  Huh i think i sold too early.... oh well, i'm confident if i wait long enough i'll buy back lower...



fair price discovery is fair. BTC
  adam says buy monday night, the latest! ; )

I remember you falling into a similar situation when we crossed $15 I believe?  Did you ever buy back?

no after selling at 15 to 27ish, I cashed out the money, i did buy some at 80 & 100 recently but i sold that at 127ish a few days ago.
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June 02, 2013, 03:45:09 AM
 #12373

Someone is running a bot on BitStamp that buys exactly 1 BTC at the lowest ask price every minute. (If there is 1 BTC available, otherwise it buys whatever is there.)

Costs about $7700 to run that bot for an hour, let's see how much ammo it's got. Grin


That isn't a bot - that's Bitstamp creating fake trades to pump its volume numbers and feign liquidity.
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June 02, 2013, 03:47:07 AM
 #12374

Someone is running a bot on BitStamp that buys exactly 1 BTC at the lowest ask price every minute. (If there is 1 BTC available, otherwise it buys whatever is there.)

Costs about $7700 to run that bot for an hour, let's see how much ammo it's got. Grin


That isn't a bot - that's Bitstamp creating fake trades to pump its volume numbers and feign liquidity.

Quite a claim.
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June 02, 2013, 03:52:46 AM
 #12375

Everyone says bitcoin value is too volatile to be a stable currency.
The US dollar wishes it were as stable as bitcoin has been over the last few weeks.
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June 02, 2013, 04:01:37 AM
Last edit: June 02, 2013, 05:14:24 AM by Abandon
 #12376

Someone is running a bot on BitStamp that buys exactly 1 BTC at the lowest ask price every minute. (If there is 1 BTC available, otherwise it buys whatever is there.)

Costs about $7700 to run that bot for an hour, let's see how much ammo it's got. Grin


That isn't a bot - that's Bitstamp creating fake trades to pump its volume numbers and feign liquidity.

That is a bot, who's goal is to raise the price on bitstamp, to at least match the price on Mt.Gox. If someone will sell you 1 BTC every minute, what incentive do you have to stoop down to the highest bid price?
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June 02, 2013, 04:03:03 AM
 #12377

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June 02, 2013, 04:09:01 AM
 #12378

Everyone says bitcoin value is too volatile to be a stable currency.
The US dollar wishes it were as stable as bitcoin has been over the last few weeks.

relative to the canadian dollar the USD has been stable

that doesn't mean much does it   Tongue
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June 02, 2013, 04:23:22 AM
 #12379

not even one person wants a piece of that wall  Huh i think i sold too early.... oh well, i'm confident if i wait long enough i'll buy back lower...



fair price discovery is fair. BTC
  adam says buy monday night, the latest! ; )

I remember you falling into a similar situation when we crossed $15 I believe?  Did you ever buy back?

Oh how hard it was for me, yes selling out at an average below $13 and now putting in my bids.
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June 02, 2013, 04:41:06 AM
 #12380

Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that:

That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes.

Don't you mean short increases in volume during funding changes?

What are funding changes?

Re Frozenlock's comment

All this talk about low volume is a little parochial, the price has jumped an order of magnitude, so naturally new Bitcoin traders and speculaters, are trading within that new band. If you measure volume in USD, it is roughly trading an order of magnitude higher too, so volume isn't as big of a deterrent given all the profit taking (new Bitcoin registration number plates) I've seen.
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