giszmo
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Activity: 1862
Merit: 1105
WalletScrutiny.com
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June 05, 2013, 04:40:17 AM |
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Indeed, I've heard you're officially allowed to enter the circle jerk that makes up this thread. You stop following your own analysis and start expecting bitcoin to go up because well, it's bitcoin! I can't wait till I get to 684!
Not really. Most bears have an old or high number posts account. There was a thread once where somebody promised quite some reward for the best guess of the bitcoin price by some date. Back then I also did the analysis of how bullishness/bearishness correlates to the post count. It turned out there was a clear correlation between spread and post count. The more posts the more they agreed on a moderately higher price. Damn. Found it. I post too much: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138028.msg1472018#msg1472018 |
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"Bitcoin: the cutting edge of begging technology." -- Giraffe.BTC
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Frozenlock
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June 05, 2013, 04:48:27 AM |
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Well yeah, in January. You know, before the price made a little multiplication by ten...  |
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notme
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Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
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June 05, 2013, 05:31:04 AM |
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Indeed, I've heard you're officially allowed to enter the circle jerk that makes up this thread. You stop following your own analysis and start expecting bitcoin to go up because well, it's bitcoin! I can't wait till I get to 684!
Not really. Most bears have an old or high number posts account. There was a thread once where somebody promised quite some reward for the best guess of the bitcoin price by some date. Back then I also did the analysis of how bullishness/bearishness correlates to the post count. It turned out there was a clear correlation between spread and post count. The more posts the more they agreed on a moderately higher price. Damn. Found it. I post too much: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138028.msg1472018#msg1472018And the price was higher on the date in question. So the question is, if you did the same study right before the price goes down, would high post count still correlate with high estimates, or would it correlate with correct estimates? |
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sarc
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Activity: 98
Merit: 10
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June 05, 2013, 09:52:47 AM |
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 Go on, crash, you know it makes sense... |
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notme
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Merit: 1002
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June 05, 2013, 09:54:10 AM |
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Go on, crash, you know it makes sense... But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility. |
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sarc
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Activity: 98
Merit: 10
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June 05, 2013, 10:05:55 AM |
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Go on, crash, you know it makes sense... But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility. stagnation? |
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prof7bit
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June 05, 2013, 11:28:50 AM |
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Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different. |
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fluidjax
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June 05, 2013, 11:29:16 AM |
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Go on, crash, you know it makes sense... But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility. stagnation? If this type of trend line meant anything... if we extrapolate from the year 2000 using this chart http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= the FTSE should be around 50,000. |
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San1ty
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June 05, 2013, 11:30:55 AM |
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Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different. The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there". |
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prof7bit
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June 05, 2013, 11:35:24 AM |
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The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".
Its not only the line, its the entire curve, the proportions are completely wrong. compare with the log charts at bitcoincharts.com or *any* other log chart of bitcoin price I have ever seen anywhere. |
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barbs
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June 05, 2013, 11:36:51 AM |
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Gox shitting a brick right now?  |
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sarc
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Merit: 10
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June 05, 2013, 11:40:18 AM
Last edit: June 05, 2013, 11:50:33 AM by sarc |
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Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different. The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there". ok then. Plotted using sigmaplot. regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data. bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time predicted price= $24.24 when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins  |
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EuroTrash
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June 05, 2013, 11:44:55 AM |
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ok then.
Plotted using sigmaplot.
regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.
There lies the problem. You choose what is bubble data and whatnot. |
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sarc
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Activity: 98
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June 05, 2013, 11:47:58 AM |
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ok then.
Plotted using sigmaplot.
regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.
There lies the problem. You choose what is bubble data and whatnot. it's not exactly a subtle change... |
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ChartBuddy
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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
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June 05, 2013, 12:02:28 PM |
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Dargumin
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June 05, 2013, 12:03:10 PM |
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The volume on gox is really low today. Around the 15-16,000 mark. Are we stable for the next few days then?
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barbs
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June 05, 2013, 12:06:15 PM |
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I chucked a buy order for 120.12 @ 1 btc and it got filled.. either i got goxxed or someone else did..
Goxxed! who's got a gif
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sarc
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Activity: 98
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June 05, 2013, 12:09:39 PM |
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Go on, crash, you know it makes sense... But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility. stagnation? If this type of trend line meant anything... if we extrapolate from the year 2000 using this chart http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= the FTSE should be around 50,000. so your point is that I'm wildly overestimating the price? |
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gizmoh
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Merit: 1000
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June 05, 2013, 12:15:57 PM |
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Gox shitting a brick right now? No shit, where are all the panic sellers? 10 minutes lag and growing.. Our old goxxing always here  |
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oda.krell
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Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
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June 05, 2013, 12:20:09 PM |
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Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different. The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there". ok then. Plotted using sigmaplot. regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data. bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time predicted price= $24.24 when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins :) Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that. But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption you make in your analysis, an assumption that some (including me) would consider completely unfounded, and in fact completely unrealistic? That there is a single underlying growth function that governed the price of btc over the entire course of the data you looked at, and will continue to govern it. Sure, you're free to make this assumption. But with that assumption removed, your analysis falls apart. |
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