Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ineededausername]

All that needs to happen for the price to start rocketing again is for the big VCs to back a fully-registered, convenient-to-use, stable and secure exchange, eliminating all uncertainty from the market.  Is that so far out of the question?
Every major down-spike in the last few weeks has been due to the government or MtGox doing something wrong, but with all the VC money flowing in, things are going to get better.

I can't wait to see what Bitcoin looks like on New Year's Day 2014

[phoenix1]

Mexican Dwarf Toreador.  Make of it what you will.

Isn't the 'bull' rather small too  
More of a calf I think . A fair match ...

[nmersulypnem]

All that needs to happen for the price to start rocketing again is for the big VCs to back a fully-registered, convenient-to-use, stable and secure exchange, eliminating all uncertainty from the market.  Is that so far out of the question?
Every major down-spike in the last few weeks has been due to the government or MtGox doing something wrong, but with all the VC money flowing in, things are going to get better.

I can't wait to see what Bitcoin looks like on New Year's Day 2014

The last two 10% drops were not related to any news event.  ...also, there is no VC that is going to put significant amounts of cash into something that is so heavily influenced by illegal activity.  At the moment, the Bitcoin economy is still used 90% for Silk Road purchases.

[Rampion]

Sure it's bearish.

Unless you're trying to tell that a short term drop of 50% is inconsequent.

I'm telling that after such insane growth a deep correction is needed. Infrastructure is not good enough to support that kind of growth. There are things that have to be built, step by step to reach broader usage and thus new levels of growth.

Therefore, cheaper coins than $120 are expected. But in the big picture things are happening for Bitcoin, CEOs are looking at it, the business world is extremely curious about it. Bitcoin entrepreneurs as Bitpay's CEO go to extremely relevant business gatherings (Leweb 13 London, today, for example) and their talks are the most crowded ones.

Bitcoin will grow, year after year, but this has to be a longish game for a real win. And important things need to happen.

We're headed in the right direction.

[Frozenlock]

Ok, so you're short term bearish.

[Rampion]

True. However, if bitcoin is going to have wider adoption, the price has to go up to accommodate a larger slice of world economy.

The price of Bitcoin is largely irrelevant to economic activity. XRP for instance has a theoretical market cap several times that of Bitcoin, yet nobody really uses ripple right now.

How does a currency provides the nuts and bolts for an economy that has a value flow larger than it?

It isn't flowing, that's kind of my point. As long as the currency sits in every bodies wallets as a "store of value" and so few people are using it as a payment system the discrepancy between the theoretical market cap (all currency times the price) becomes so large that the effect of real economic activity is basically nil.

Agreed ... if the velocity of Bitcoin 'money' could increase (ie more liquidity on the exchanges), the price would not need to rise to accommodate increased trade, but as most of it is locked away, as an instrument of exchange it is well, not the best right now. People want to hold their coins til they are worth thousands so that the very small free float could then accommodate the needs of an economy.

 I am not convinced that it will work like that. At the moment we are like a penny stock in which the original owners have sold about 5% of company. Its a speculative investment, not a currency, yet many are calling it the currency of the future. I am not denying that there is much more to the blockchain, just looking at BTC as a currency here and now. It is so illiquid that it will not attract any serious players right now. I imagine that there are some medium sized fish who got hooked during the high volume period that right now simply so not know what to do. They cannot liquidate their investment without dramatically moving the price and they can't use it for anything either (on the scale we are talking). Not what it said on the tin. Not crying for them ... they are all big boys.

Big fish need much more liquidity than this market is currently willing to provide. They don't like 'trades' they cannot exit from. Like it or not, there will always be more than one 'currency' ... the ability to switch between them, whatever they are, is key to adoption.

I am not an economist so please do not pick this argument to pieces on academic grounds ... it is just my slightly educated opinion, and I am sure there are many holes. And this is neither a bullish nor bearish post, just some thoughts.

TL;DR: Bitcoin market is a peanut so small that it's like a joke.

I agree

Did you know that "MtGox" controlled almost 80% of the market not long ago?

Infrastructure has to grow A LOT. But the Bitcoin concept is so fascinating that a lot of people is putting a lot of work on it, and more clever people is getting hooked to it.

[phoenix1]

Liquidity has to grow A LOT. But the Bitcoin concept is so fascinating that a lot of people is putting a lot of work on it, and more clever people is getting hooked to it.

FTFY  

What use is more infrastructure if everyone wants to hoard coins ?

[Rampion]

Ok, so you're short term bearish.

Yeah. Didn't you read that I sold some coins at $118ish on Monday because I needed to cash out fiat and I thought it was going to go lower?

Selling at the bottom, like a boss

And i have some fiat of friends who asked me to buy BTC for them whenever I thought I should, and I'm still holding their fiat, expecting a better entry point.

[Miz4r]

Well I've decided to buy at $119.29 with my available fiat for this month. We'll see where it goes from here and whether I will regret this later. If I will, oh well there is always next month.

[lebing]

All that needs to happen for the price to start rocketing again is for the big VCs to back a fully-registered, convenient-to-use, stable and secure exchange, eliminating all uncertainty from the market.  Is that so far out of the question?
Every major down-spike in the last few weeks has been due to the government or MtGox doing something wrong, but with all the VC money flowing in, things are going to get better.

I can't wait to see what Bitcoin looks like on New Year's Day 2014

The last two 10% drops were not related to any news event.  ...also, there is no VC that is going to put significant amounts of cash into something that is so heavily influenced by illegal activity.  At the moment, the Bitcoin economy is still used 90% for Silk Road purchases.

Tell that to Chamath P and Fred Wilson.

[Rampion]

All that needs to happen for the price to start rocketing again is for the big VCs to back a fully-registered, convenient-to-use, stable and secure exchange, eliminating all uncertainty from the market.  Is that so far out of the question?
Every major down-spike in the last few weeks has been due to the government or MtGox doing something wrong, but with all the VC money flowing in, things are going to get better.

I can't wait to see what Bitcoin looks like on New Year's Day 2014

The last two 10% drops were not related to any news event.  ...also, there is no VC that is going to put significant amounts of cash into something that is so heavily influenced by illegal activity.  At the moment, the Bitcoin economy is still used 90% for Silk Road purchases.

Tell that to Chamath P and Fred Wilson.

This.

The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.

This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.

[lucas.sev]

The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.

This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.

The question is why the f--k would I want to internationally transfer my money to Japan, wait 4 days, pay transfer fees, buy one bitcoin and then buy a service I could pay for instantly with paypal? The only reason to go through hassle of getting bitcoin is using silkroad. Please tell me, why else would I want to use bitcoin to buy something over using credit card or paypal.

It is a serious question, I expect a thought out answer.

[lebing]

The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.

This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.

The question is why the f--k would I want to internationally transfer my money to Japan, wait 4 days, pay transfer fees, buy one bitcoin and then buy a service I could pay for instantly with paypal? The only reason to go through hassle of getting bitcoin is using silkroad. Please tell me, why else would I want to use bitcoin to buy something over using credit card or paypal.

It is a serious question, I expect a thought out answer.

You expect too much.

How did you even get here with this level of understanding of bitcoin?

[TheKoziTwo]

The only reason to go through hassle of getting bitcoin is using silkroad

[Rampion]

The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.

This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.

The question is why the f--k would I want to internationally transfer my money to Japan, wait 4 days, pay transfer fees, buy one bitcoin and then buy a service I could pay for instantly with paypal? The only reason to go through hassle of getting bitcoin is using silkroad. Please tell me, why else would I want to use bitcoin to buy something over using credit card or paypal.

It is a serious question, I expect a thought out answer.

Seriously?

You are very mistaken if you think that Bitcoin is a micropayment network headed to compete with PayPal.

Bitcoin is not about that. It's about storing value in a decentralized, cash-like and trust-free way. It's the "decentralized, pseudo anonymous, gold-like cash of the Internet"

If you do not see the potential and the demand for that, think again.

[lucas.sev]

The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.

This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.

The question is why the f--k would I want to internationally transfer my money to Japan, wait 4 days, pay transfer fees, buy one bitcoin and then buy a service I could pay for instantly with paypal? The only reason to go through hassle of getting bitcoin is using silkroad. Please tell me, why else would I want to use bitcoin to buy something over using credit card or paypal.

It is a serious question, I expect a thought out answer.

You expect too much.

How did you even get here with this level of understanding of bitcoin?

How do you define 'understanding'? Is your definition 'OMG HEDGE AGAINST FINANCIAL SYSTEM' or the way blockchain works and bitcoins decentralized nature? Maybe you want to answer my question, or do you agree that main use of bitcoin that makes sense is silkroad?

The only reason to go through hassle of getting bitcoin is using silkroad

Tell me then why else would I buy something using bitcoin instead of dollars?

[phoenix1]

The Silk Road talk is so '2011ish. Came on. People sees that there's much more in BTC, besides of the fact that real economy is still reduced and that it's very speculation driven.

This baby needs to grow a little bit, but it's unstoppable.

The question is why the f--k would I want to internationally transfer my money to Japan, wait 4 days, pay transfer fees, buy one bitcoin and then buy a service I could pay for instantly with paypal? The only reason to go through hassle of getting bitcoin is using silkroad. Please tell me, why else would I want to use bitcoin to buy something over using credit card or paypal.

It is a serious question, I expect a thought out answer.

Excluding political arguments, I see no reason right now. Hence most proponents are hoarding and waiting for the next bubble. And it will probably come. I am not a techy, but my limited understanding leads me to accept that the technology behind it is 'genius', but right now, as a currency ... meh ... it isn't one. It's a speculative investment. Nothing wrong with that ...

I think the SR argument is wearing a bit thin now though  ... I do not believe that BTC would fail without SR

[ChartBuddy]

[lucas.sev]

Excluding political arguments, I see no reason right now. Hence most proponents are hoarding and waiting for the next bubble. And it will probably come. I am not a techy, but my limited understanding leads me to accept that the technology behind it is 'genius', but right now, as a currency ... meh ... it isn't one. It's a speculative investment. Nothing wrong with that ...

I think the SR argument is wearing a bit thin now though  ... I do not believe that BTC would fail without SR

I agree that it would not fail, however without it it would be totally in speculators hands. I see no reason either. And I agree that next bubble will come. I hope for it as well of course. In other news: someone dumped 2.5k 5k BTC

[nmersulypnem]

PANIC PANIC PANIC!

SELL SELL SELL.

35K dump...  I am so glad I pulled out today.