Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bitcycle]

The downward movement we had on Sunday and the one we had today stopped only because sellers stopped to sell, not because buyers started to buy.

Outside of that part where buyers bought.

[Frozenlock]

I wonder when people will start to panic. 

[Jaroslaw]

I wonder when people will start to panic. 

When i will dump another 5k btc transfering on gox in progress.

[sarc]

I wonder when people will start to panic. 

usually - too late.

[fr33d0miz3r]

I wonder when people will start to panic. 

When i will dump another 5k btc transfering on gox in progress.

So you'll dump before americans wake up? OMG, huge panic will happen today 

[nmersulypnem]

When the bubble burst earlier this year, over 2 million BTC were dumped on MtGox alone.  It this latest down trend, we've only sold ~150 BTC.  Once the big whales realize we are on a persistent downturn, the selling is going to snowball, and another 1.5 million BTC are going to be on the chopping block...

Just to give you an understanding of what that's going to do to the price...  there are only 250K BTC on the order book right now.  Now, don't get me wrong, there's lots of money on the sidelines, but think about what that means...  It means that big BTC whales are currently UNABLE to cash out.  So they are bleeding into the market slowly to try and keep the price from crashing.  ...and that's why this downturn is going to be so long and so painful...

[ft73]

Well, 110 reached (pierced!) on Gox, then dead cat bounce as expected.

[niothor]

I wonder when people will start to panic. 

When i will dump another 5k btc transfering on gox in progress.

So you'll dump before americans wake up? OMG, huge panic will happen today 

Isn't it already 9 am in NYC?

[Frozenlock]

I won a good amount on coin gambling last night for me, and proceeded to Mt Gox to input it since I thought I was going to need to sell today to fell comfortable, appears I was right.  Happy with the cash sitting there for now but did put a buy in at $95 just incase I was away for a while

I bet you'll be sorry if your order is executed.

[JSMill]

Any predictions for price movement over the weekend?

You must be new here.  The only predictions around here are...up...uP...UP!!  

Hahaha, indeed.  Thanks all for the responses!  Also I welcome any other perspectives. 

[sarc]

what's the problem? All looks happy and healthy here....

[seleme]

Bitcoin is too stressful to trade and it gives zero option to hide in bad times.

Trading altcoins is 5 times better. Zillion of them, so many chances to catch a pump or make your position better if one of them is dumped.

[Rampion]

When the bubble burst earlier this year, over 2 million BTC were dumped on MtGox alone.  It this latest down trend, we've only sold ~150 BTC.  Once the big whales realize we are on a persistent downturn, the selling is going to snowball, and another 1.5 million BTC are going to be on the chopping block...

Just to give you an understanding of what that's going to do to the price...  there are only 250K BTC on the order book right now.  Now, don't get me wrong, there's lots of money on the sidelines, but think about what that means...  It means that big BTC whales are currently UNABLE to cash out.  So they are bleeding into the market slowly to try and keep the price from crashing.  ...and that's why this downturn is going to be so long and so painful...

I really don't know where are you getting your figures. On Gox's order book there are slightly less than 120k BTC ATM. All time high in terms of BTC at Gox order book is slightly over 300k BTC, and that happened end of August 2012.

So, even if it was true that we had 250k BTC on Gox order book now (which it isn't), you shouldn't say "only", because 250k BTC on sale on Gox would bex a HUGE quantity, very close to ATH. Just remember that there are only 11M BTC circulating, when you have 2,3% of the total supply of BTC on sale on a single exchange you do not say "only", and you do not expect more to come.

And BTW, BTC whales are not "currently" unable to cash out. That's BS. Cashing out many k's of BTC has always been a problem, and today is a much smaller problem that it was let's say in January. This is a super tiny market, it has always been, and cashing out k's of BTC avoiding massive slippage has always been a lengthy process - in the past more than in the present.

[ft73]

I won a good amount on coin gambling last night for me, and proceeded to Mt Gox to input it since I thought I was going to need to sell today to fell comfortable, appears I was right.  Happy with the cash sitting there for now but did put a buy in at $95 just incase I was away for a while

I bet you'll be sorry if your order is executed.

No because I think 90-100 is a stopping point, imo.  I really would like to seel 1 BTC = $100 for a while to make it easier for mass adoption which is what this market needs to settle it and great good continuous growth.

I agree that 90-100 would be a good entry point.
I am currently flat and i think i will get in 50% in that range.
However before that 100 should be reached and pierced, and that will not be so trivial.
I would expect some lateralization as well as multiple bounces, so in the meantime 110-115 as well as 100-110 may be good trading ranges for some lazy intraday.

[nmersulypnem]

When the bubble burst earlier this year, over 2 million BTC were dumped on MtGox alone.  It this latest down trend, we've only sold ~150 BTC.  Once the big whales realize we are on a persistent downturn, the selling is going to snowball, and another 1.5 million BTC are going to be on the chopping block...

Just to give you an understanding of what that's going to do to the price...  there are only 250K BTC on the order book right now.  Now, don't get me wrong, there's lots of money on the sidelines, but think about what that means...  It means that big BTC whales are currently UNABLE to cash out.  So they are bleeding into the market slowly to try and keep the price from crashing.  ...and that's why this downturn is going to be so long and so painful...

I really don't know where are you getting your figures. On Gox's order book there are slightly less than 120k BTC ATM. All time high in terms of BTC at Gox order book is slightly over 300k BTC, and that happened end of August 2012.

So, even if it was true that we had 250k BTC on Gox order book now (which it isn't), you shouldn't say "only", because 250k BTC on sale on Gox would bex a HUGE quantity, very close to ATH. Just remember that there are only 11M BTC circulating, when you have 2,3% of the total supply of BTC on sale on a single exchange you do not say "only", and you do not expect more to come.

And BTW, BTC whales are not "currently" unable to cash out. That's BS. Cashing out many k's of BTC has always been a problem, and today is a much smaller problem that it was let's say in January. This is a super tiny market, it has always been, and cashing out k's of BTC avoiding massive slippage has always been a lengthy process - in the past more than in the present.

250K on Clarkmoody right now if you group by BTC0.1 and look all the way to $11.   My contention is that since there is so much less volume on the exchange now (due to the cash inflow/outflow conduits being closed), then selling large amounts is much much harder.  In any case, the whales make one story very clear - the vast majority of BTC is not in the Bitcoin economy, it is in the hands of speculators, and those people will dump when they see a persistent downturn.  Initially they will try to control the price to maximize their exit return, but ultimately they will trip over each other selling their BTC, and we will be right back where we started this year...

[wopwop]

It's just miners selling their day profits

These are not speculators selling yet, they are holding dearly to their bitcoin all the way down

[Frozenlock]

Redditors turning bearish?

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1fup9j/friday_june_7_2013/

I hope this dispels some of the jerking that has been occurring in a circle like fashion on this sub lately. Too many people convinced the price was going to go back up to $130 giving advice about buying "cheap" coins while you can with nothing more than pictures of past graphs to back it up.

The trend lately seems to be big sell offs over night/early morning. Whether that just happens to be people in distant time zones doing normal business, or intentionally selling off at night so people can't pull orders I don't know. In either case I don't expect a quick return to $130, although I could be wrong. The rise from $118 to $130 only happened because of hype from the conference, and was followed by incredibly low trading volume. Barring some big news I don't see another climb up that's sustained more than a day or so.

I also think people continue to seriously underestimate the effect new coins have on the price, and it seems pretty clear that new people into the market just isn't happening fast enough to maintain current price levels. Honestly I'm not sure that I think btc over $100 is sustainable at the moment. Those dividends that people post about each week are coming from somewhere, and yet people still get surprised to see a large sell order crop up and send the price down. And ASICminer isn't the only player who has coins to sell.
If you look at market history since the conference most days volume doesn't break 10k, and some hardly breaks 3k, and I'm pretty sure about half that volume is bots dicking around with each other. Just not enough to buy up the coins from the miners.

The sad thing is none of what I'm saying should be news; me and others have said all this over the past two weeks often times to the chorus of downvotes or people who blindly refute a decline in price with nothing more than pictures of past graphs as "proof". Unless there is another conference, don't use the graph from before the conference as an example of what to expect. So seriously people, stop downvoting opinions that differ from yours as long as they are constructive, and unless you want people like me to take your money, start applying a little more cynicism towards the market. And you should let yourself benefit from seriously considering the advice of people who think differently than you.

And remember, there is no guarantee of the price going up, ever. Especially on the timescale of a trader trying to make a profit. Also, make up your mind whether you are a trader or an investor. I'm a trader, and while I would like to see bitcoin succeed I'm not going to let that stop me from betting against it in the market if that will make me money. If you can't do the same you are either an investor, or a piggy bank for traders.

[wopwop]

Better turn bear than to be a pig like everyone here and get slaughtered

[dexX7]

Seems to be fake.





http://www.pdf-archive.com/2013/06/06/mt-gox-press-release-litecoin/preview/page/1/

Seems to be fake.

Seems to be fake.

What's the best plattform to trade altcoins?

[ft73]

Hmm LTC on Gox + GPU miners migrating to SCRYPT coins.
LTC boom?